Spanish elections and politics

[Nanwe]

In other news, Iglesias just told the King and the press his desire to be Sánchez's VP. The ministries would be divided in a proportional manner ot the vote difference (not seats!) between the two parties and give one ministry to IU. Potential ministers: Irene Montero, Victoria Rosell, Íñigo Errejón, Carolina Bescansa, Xavier Domènech and Julio Rodríguez.

And he just proposed a magnificent manner to coerce the PP into constitutional reform. Use article 92 to call a consultative referendum on the mater of 'do you want constitutional reform?' and then if and when the 'Yes' wins, the PP couldn't say no. Or at least that's his argument.

And now there are no red line anymore. And Iglesias wants a government that defends the unity of Spain respecting the plurinational character of the State, no mention of the referendum.

I wonder if the fact that IU and Compromís are so pro-PSOE, as well as En Marea could make them look bad? Although they keep insisting on the big coalition ev0l plot, when I'm not sure how many times Sánchez has to say otherwise. The problem isn't Sánchez, its the barons, who seem keen on losing and on not governing. I thought parties wanted power?

[Nanwe]

Iglesias as always could save himself some phrases.

As we speak, Patxi López is heading to Zarzuela to know whom the King proposes as candidate for the Premiership to be invested by the Parliament.

But, anyways... Possible ministries and such:

PSOE: Premiership and 7 ministers
Podemos: Deputy Premiership and 2 ministers (perhaps Economy and Defence)
En Comú-Podem: 1 minister (Domenech, Ministry of 'Plurinationality')
Compromís: 1 minister
En Marea: 1 minister
IU: 1 minister (Garzón, Ministry of 'We Anguita')

As VP, btw, and unless Sánchez appoints a different spokesperson or a Minister for the Presidency, Iglesias would be the government's spokesperson. That would permit him to keep a high profile, usually complicated for junior coalition partners.

In any case, a PSOE-Podemos-IU government will be a weak one. Usually, minority coalitions are one of the shortest-lived governments, on average lasting little more than 2 years or so.

[Nanwe]

Is Rajoy likely to stay as leader of the PP btw?

No.

This is just in. The King was going to propose Rajoy, but Rajoy has rejected standing as candidate for the investiture.


EDIT: Instead of proposing anyone, the King will hold next week a second round of interviews before proposing anyone to Patxi Lopez. More time for PSOE and Podemos to reach an agreement and find support in other places.

[Nanwe]

Is Rajoy likely to stay as leader of the PP btw?

Rajoy said at a press conference held minutes ago that he's gong to stand as candidate  (and subsequently as PP leader). By the moment he rejects the king's offer because he has a majority of the Congress of Deputies against him. However, Mr Rajoy is still hanging on the idea of a Grosse Koalition including PP, PSOE and C's led by himself. The man is  obstinate.

Is there any way for Rajoy to stay PM?  He seems like the best of the bunch!

Most unlikely. His party's arrogant style of government during the past legislature have made them essentially toxic, like it happened in 2004. They will whine and complain about a 'stolen' victory and blah, and try - as they have already announced - to make life difficult for any left-wing government by trying to block as much as possible with their Senate majority. Of course, the left-wing only needs to change the electoral system of the Senate (by absolute majority in the lower chamber to overturn the Senate) and employ article 155 to only dissolve the Senate. And no more problem.

Sánchez needs time to build up his links and a coalition. Rajoy has taken that away from him through his announcement yesterday. Humiliating Rajoy on an investiture motion with all parties but the PP voting against him would have built up the cohesion of the various left forces. And Rajoy is not interested in playing that role.

[Nanwe]

Rita Barberá's inner circle is all eseentially under investigation. In fact, all 10 PP city councillors in Valencia are being investigated for various corruption-related charges.

[Nanwe]

The King has not offered Rajoy the possibility of forming a government. In the meantime, Rajoy will refuse to talk to PSOE unless PSOE agrees to support him first. Sánchez is now ready to try and go through the investiture session if the King asks him to and Rajoy continues to refuse.

Meanwhile, within the PP many people want a proper renovation, if not outright rebranding à la AP-PP, of the party in a post-Rajoy time. Ending the digital selection system of candidates might help. Also developing actual anti-corruption policies beyond saying that politicians should give example.

The King is to meet with Patxi López, the President of the Congress of Deputies at 19:30 (so in 14 minutes) to announce him the name of his candidate to the investiture. We shall see if this time the King does put forward someone's name. I suspect it'll be Sánchez though. It seems like things are getting easier for him, even though Podemos yesterday made a ridiculous proposal in which it already picked the ministers and the portfolios for PSOE ministers!

[Nanwe]

And indeed the King has tasked Sánchez with the role of formateur. Since there's no time limit in the law between the proposal and the first vote on the investiture, and this is decided by the President of the Congress (Patxi López, PSOE), Sánchez will have some advantage on his side.

In any case, López has already told the press that Sánchez has told him that he'll require 3-4 weeks to negotiate (they could have started in January!) an agreement. That would place the first investiture vote on February 25th or March 1st. And the second one within less than a week from them, iirc.

[Nanwe]

Albert Rivera (C's) besides other conditions, has said their support for a Government (beyond Transition 2.0, progressive welfare state, liberal economy) is dependent on a policy of further European integration or even the United States of Europe. Man, sometimes it's incredible how different political cultures are across Europe. In Spain, a politician speaks of USE and it's awesome and being  Eurosceptic is the political equivalent of being a Maoist.

I love Spain for these lil' quirks.

[Nanwe]

Ending the digital selection system of candidates might help.

What's problematic about it? Seems like it would make it harder for corrupt cliques to stitch things up. (If I understand you correctly - you mean party members choosing candidates in an online vote, right?)

No sorry, I was being cheeky. Digital in this sense means the old-fashioned meaning of digital, from Latin 'digitus', finger. Appointment through finger-pointing by your predecessor.

[Nanwe]

Interesting. You can clearly see the north-south divide in Europe's most unequal capital. Well, with the exception of Centro, which I support shows a much more gentrified, pijoprogre kind of left, as opposed to the working-class areas in the south.

I don't see a clear pattern for C's, they are stronger in the wealthier north (to be expected) but for instance their best result is in Barajas, which is not precisely Madrid's wealthiest district. Also, I wonder if the voters from Salamanca would ever stop voting PP, maybe if Rajoy is caught ritually sacrificing Aguirre to the Gods of electoral repetition?

The divide is crazy though, I was working out the results for the 2008 elections in my electoral model, and the Madrid Sur district (Arganzuela, Latina, Carabanchel, Usera, Puente-Vallecas, Moratalaz, Villaverde, Villa-Vallecas, San Blas and Barajas) was strongly left-wing (in one of them PCPE or POSI came third lol) whereas the PP has their best results in Madrid Norte. Even better than in Murcia.

By the way, Velasco, could I use the colour key? I wanted to use it for the maps, since it's quite nice.

[Nanwe]

January CIS poll and difference December 2015 election. Polling held between 6 and 11 of January.

PP: 28,8% (-0.1), Podemos: 21,9% (+1.4), PSOE: 20,5% (-1.5), C's: 13,3% (-0.4), IU: 3,7% (=)

[Nanwe]

Interesting. You can clearly see the north-south divide in Europe's most unequal capital. Well, with the exception of Centro, which I support shows a much more gentrified, pijoprogre kind of left, as opposed to the working-class areas in the south.

Well, the most populous neighbourhood in the the district of Centro is Lavapiés. That place is consistently left-wing. As well Podemos was officially launched there, at Teatro del Barrio. It's not exactly a wealthy neighbourhood, but it's somewhat gentrified.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavapi%C3%A9s

Oh, my bad. I honestly thought Centro would be more dimigraphically similar to Salamanca, but well I do know about Lavapies' reputation, just didn't figure out it's within Centro.

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Yeah, I remember, it's also a very left-wing municipality in any case. Although it would be interesting to look at how it voted in the late 1990s when the PP was more popular among the youth than the PSOE. I still wonder whether Vaciamadrid stands for Va hacia Madrid (go to Madrid) or Vacía Madrid (Madrid emptier)

EDIT:

In 1993, PSOE received 40.32% votes (and PP was third after IU!), in 1996, PSOE 36.45 (and PP 32.07) and even in 2000 PSOE still came ahead of the PP: 39.03 vs. 36.82.

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True, but the suburbanisation is a demographic trends since the 1990s, isn't it? Also, a word for non-Spaniards, suburbs in Spain are also flat-dominated, they are more "ciudades dormitorio" (sleeping-only cities?) than American-style (or even European style) detached house suburbs. For some reason, Spaniards love to live in flats.

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That I have, no worries. So do you have like a scale from 0 to 100? Because I've noticed in your maps on St. Brendan's Island blog that starting and finishing colouring varies.

[Nanwe]

Iglesias is being ridiculous by insisting that Sanchez should only negotiate with him and Garzon. The numbers don't add up without Cs or the nationalists, and Cs seems a more likely candidate. It's obvious Iglesias is already ogling the new elections.

Btw, Valencia should be extremely interesting, Es El Moment obtained 45% votes iirc.

[Nanwe]

Esperanza Aguirre resigns as regional leader of PP in Madrid, leaving Mariano Rajoy in bad place. "Corruption is killing us. I assume the political responsibility". Three days ago, the Guardia Civil (Spanish military police) registered Madrid PP HQs in search for illegal party funding evidence.

Surprising. Cifuentes must be so happy.

[Nanwe]

Velasco, you must realise that to this day that ETA and their victims is very much a sensitive topic for the right-wing electorate. It's their version of political correctness (the left has their own, but we never talk of the ones the right has), but the play was certainly of bad taste, but not to keep two nobodies in prison for 5 days without bail over a play.

But the PP does what it does best, politicise ETA, even after it's basically dead. I wonder what they'll do once that boogeyman is gone. Venezuela is not so psychologically strong.

Anyhow, poll of polls (12/02):

PP: 28.2 (-0.5), PSOE: 21.6 (-0.4), Podemos: 20.9 (+0.3), C's: 15.9 (+2), IU: 3.9 (+0.2)

Although this fails to take into account the recent string of PP corruption scandals in Madrid, Valencia and Murcia (minor, but right on time for Rajoy's visit to Murcia).

[Nanwe]

On the other hand, PSOE and IU agreed a number of measures including electoral reform and the repeal of Labour laws passed by PP. IU urges Podemos to negotiate, as well to abandon the "red line" drawn on the Catalan referendum.

A nationwide proportional system that would give IU more seats?

Yes, but it cannot happen. Although constitutional reforms don't fix much, despite our obsession with them, electoral reform, if one wants to move towards a very different system, does require constitutional reform because the Constitution establishes the province as the basis electoral unit. That hurts IU, which does not have enough votes to successfully concentrate them. At best a mild electoral reform (upping the number of MPs to 400, allocating 1 instead of 2 seats per province) could improve their situation, but nothing drastic.

Personally I have my very sincere doubts about whether that would be a good system in the first place.

[Nanwe]

Couldn't they keep the provinces but stick a top-up list on the top?

IU proposed introducing leveling seats. Currently the Congress of Deputies has 350 seats, but the Constitution allows as much as 400. Hence the Lower House could have 350 fixed seats (elected provincially) and 50 additional adjustment seats (nationwide). PSOE agreed with the proposal, but in any case its implementation would require an 'express' constitutional reform. PP has a blocking minority in the Parliament, so their votes are necessary in order to pass that kind of initiatives.

Honestly, the two minor reforms I outlined above, combined with changing from Hont to Hare or some such would be enough to increase proportionality without needing to change the constitutional text, which is impossible in this legislature, unless we also change the Senate.

[Nanwe]

Sigma Dos for El Mundo:

PP: 27.8% (-0.9), 119 seats (-4);
PSOE: 23.1% (+1.1), 93 seats (+3);
Podemos: 18.8% (-1.2), 60 seats (-9);
Ciudadanos: 15.3% (+1.4), 50 seats (+10);
IU: 4.0% (+0.3), 3 seats (+1)

Details: 1.000 interview. Margin of error: ±3.16%

[Nanwe]

On economic issues, the agreement is fairly progressive, it includes improvements in temporary works, the development of proper state-sponsored work training and work-search systems, work benefits or a sort of minimum income for those without work income.

I haven't yet heard anyone from Podemos explain precisely why it's so incompatible with them except that they say it is. Not surprising though. To be frank, the more time passes, the more I have come to dislike the party.

[Nanwe]

Thaks for that, Velasco, some degree of viscerality is gone, although I still hear Garzón's 'it's regressive' comment in my head. But that's not Podemos' fault

. Although my main issue with those Podemos' objection and some points of PSOE-C's agreement is that they require a constitutional change, which is impossible to happen with the PP holding over 1/3 of Congress and the majority in the Senate. They are pipe dreams at least with Rajoy still leading the PP.

Anyhow,

The Huffington Post recently published a very interesting article about Podemos' difficult attitude to the deal:

Link (in Spanihs). Huffington Post Did my best at translating it.

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[Nanwe]

And an interesting anaylitical article:

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[Nanwe]

What are the odds of a new election?

My personal opinion is 50:50.

[Nanwe]

I's interesting how the duet Errejón-Iglesias operates. Iglesias is generally nasty and yesterday he essentially gave an electoral campaign speech going back to 40 years ago and then telling the PSOE they - and their iconic Felipe González - are the party of the 'cal viva' (reference to the GAL) to Errejón face of utter dismay at the reference. In any case, that was an extremely harsh tone and may have burnt any bridges or thrown the PSOE to the PP, which is not necessarily something Podemos may dislike.

In any case, despite all their pretension, reaching a left-wing agreement was always a difficult thing, after all, it requires a certain degree of consensus in an impossible topic, the Catalan referendum, at best you can have a dissimulated one through a constitutional referendum on a federal structure. But that's unacceptable to ERC and CDC (though maybe not for Homs, but that's always the double game of CiU in Madrid and Barcelona). But basically the issue here is Podemos.  IU doesn't want elections, Compromís and PSOE more or less have a finished deal regarding improved financing for Valencia (understandably since they are the most affected region by the current system of regional financing) and some stuff about Benidorm (?) and En Mare will need the PSdG's support soon.

Some kind of PSOE-C's-Podemos tripartite government would be best, but probably unreachable. In any case, Sánchez investiture has changed the frame of political discourse by enjoying the capacity of displaying his message in the tribune, and I think that will favour him and probably Rajoy should have accepted the King's invitation to form a government.

[Nanwe]

They worked really hard on the name

[Nanwe]

It is impressive that Podemos–IU seems to be running slightly ahead of its 2015 performance.  In situations like this one would expect polarization toward the two largest blocs in 2015 which would be PP and PSOE but this does not seem to be the case.  In the election results roughly matches polls are we not just stuck in the same deadlock as 2015?  If PSOE loses support from 2015 to the point where they are behind Podemos–IU would they not support PP-C from the outside to prevent another election where they will lose more support ?

You would expect polarisation toward the two largest ideological blocs. As it has happened, Podemos and IU have a much clearer ideological positioning and bent than the PSOE (or C's, but for C's that's an asset) does. As a result, polarisation favours the two more extreme political forces, PP and Podemos+IU.

Yes, we are. Even if PSOE comes behind in terms of votes, it will remain ahead in terms of seats due to our electoral system's quirks. Podemos just doesn't have the necessary rural base.

That last question is the key.  Perhaps, but perhaps they will try to make sure to lead a left-wing government to try and regain the dominance on the left.