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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 370732 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #925 on: June 26, 2016, 01:52:01 PM »

I most likely do not know what I am talking about.  But based on the turnout patterns I feel the exit poll most likely overestimates Podemos and underestimates PP and PSOE.    I guess we will see.

It's possible. Exit polls failed in the December elections.

Sigma Dos estimates for Andalusia: PSOE 21, PP 19, Podemos 14, C's 4
The same pollster for Catalonia: ECP 14, ERC 11, PSC 7, CDC 5, C's 4, PP 4

Real count starts at 20:00 (GMT). Less than 10 minutes.
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jaichind
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« Reply #926 on: June 26, 2016, 01:55:17 PM »

A progressive bloc led by Unidos Podemos may be in a position to govern according to the result of exit poll, Alberto Garzon, leader of United Left, says in televised statement.
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ag
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« Reply #927 on: June 26, 2016, 01:57:34 PM »

A progressive bloc led by Unidos Podemos may be in a position to govern according to the result of exit poll, Alberto Garzon, leader of United Left, says in televised statement.

On these results it would be an extremely weak government, that would pretty much have to give Catalans their referendum (remember, the third largest leftist group is ERC).
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Velasco
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« Reply #928 on: June 26, 2016, 02:00:35 PM »

A progressive bloc led by Unidos Podemos may be in a position to govern according to the result of exit poll, Alberto Garzon, leader of United Left, says in televised statement.

On these results it would be an extremely weak government, that would pretty much have to give Catalans their referendum (remember, the third largest leftist group is ERC).

UP and PSOE add between 171 and 175 seats, according to GAD3. With that result, ERC would not be necessary, because the hypothetical coalition could rely on PNV.
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jaichind
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« Reply #929 on: June 26, 2016, 02:00:38 PM »

GAD3 exit poll with vote shares



PP           30.4%
Podemos  24.8%
PSOE       21.8%
C             13.2%

Here they have PP up 1.7%, Podemos  up 0.4%, PSOE down 0.2%, C down 0.7%
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jaichind
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« Reply #930 on: June 26, 2016, 02:02:27 PM »

Do they start counting at 8PM or hold off counting until 9PM?  If the former we should see a lot of the results come in very soon.
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jaichind
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« Reply #931 on: June 26, 2016, 02:04:23 PM »

A progressive bloc led by Unidos Podemos may be in a position to govern according to the result of exit poll, Alberto Garzon, leader of United Left, says in televised statement.

On these results it would be an extremely weak government, that would pretty much have to give Catalans their referendum (remember, the third largest leftist group is ERC).

UP and PSOE add between 171 and 175 seats, according to GAD3. With that result, ERC would not be necessary, because the hypothetical coalition could rely on PNV.

I thought PNV was more center-right.  Would that work with them propping up a left bloc government.
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Velasco
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« Reply #932 on: June 26, 2016, 02:05:32 PM »

Do they start counting at 8PM or hold off counting until 9PM?  If the former we should see a lot of the results come in very soon.

They hold off in mainland Spain, so stay tunned.
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jaichind
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« Reply #933 on: June 26, 2016, 02:06:30 PM »

Some results in

PP           30.92%
PSOE       24.08%
Podomos  20.61% (I think I added them up correctly)
C              9.24%
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Double Carpet
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« Reply #934 on: June 26, 2016, 02:07:04 PM »

Count has now lit up - it's PP 133, PSOE 94 on the 1st show - so Podemos may not finish 2nd...

Note there are several Podemos lists on the official site.
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Vosem
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« Reply #935 on: June 26, 2016, 02:08:18 PM »

I don't know how representative these are of Spain as a whole, but looks something like massive underperformance for the new parties and a large overperformance for the old (especially PSOE). PSOE+UP is 158, PP+C's is 152. If it stays this way, I think a third election could become inevitable.
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jaichind
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« Reply #936 on: June 26, 2016, 02:09:00 PM »

I don't know how representative these are of Spain as a whole, but looks something like massive underperformance for the new parties and a large overperformance for the old (especially PSOE). PSOE+UP is 158, PP+C's is 152. If it stays this way, I think a third election could become inevitable.

Its very early, not clear what the trend is yet.
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jaichind
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« Reply #937 on: June 26, 2016, 02:09:54 PM »

11% in

PP           30.59%
PSOE       24.11%
Podomos  20.90%  
C              9.49%
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Bacon King
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« Reply #938 on: June 26, 2016, 02:11:20 PM »

which party is the one that's a PODEMOS affiliate without have PODEMOS in the name? ECP?
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Vosem
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« Reply #939 on: June 26, 2016, 02:12:23 PM »

which party is the one that's a PODEMOS affiliate without have PODEMOS in the name? ECP?

Yes -- that would be En Comu Podem, the Catalan affiliate.
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jaichind
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« Reply #940 on: June 26, 2016, 02:13:37 PM »

Is the Senate up for election as well or just the Lower House ?
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Velasco
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« Reply #941 on: June 26, 2016, 02:14:22 PM »

Count at 13.73%

PP 131, PSOE 91, UP 66, C's 22, ERC 10, CDC 8, EAJ-PNV 5, EH Bildu 2   

which party is the one that's a PODEMOS affiliate without have PODEMOS in the name? ECP?

PODMOS-IU-EQUO, ECP, PODEMOS-COMPROMIS-EUPV, PODEMOS-EN MAREA-ANOVA-IU

Is the Senate up for election as well or just the Lower House ?

The Senate is up.
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jaichind
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« Reply #942 on: June 26, 2016, 02:14:38 PM »

16% in

PP           30.56%
PSOE       24.26%
Podomos  21.11%  
C             10.05%
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #943 on: June 26, 2016, 02:22:20 PM »

Do we know where those results are coming from? If they're representative, this looks like a major failure for Podemos.
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jaichind
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« Reply #944 on: June 26, 2016, 02:23:55 PM »

26% in

PP           30.64%
PSOE       24.17%
Podomos  21.34% 
C             10.72%
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Vosem
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« Reply #945 on: June 26, 2016, 02:24:22 PM »

Do we know where those results are coming from? If they're representative, this looks like a major failure for Podemos.

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99000CI.htm?lang=es

It's in Spanish, but that shouldn't really be a problem
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Bacon King
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« Reply #946 on: June 26, 2016, 02:24:24 PM »

Do we know where those results are coming from? If they're representative, this looks like a major failure for Podemos.

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99000CM.htm?lang=es

click on the comunidades tab - Madrid is only 3.66% in but that's the only place without much reporting
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jaichind
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« Reply #947 on: June 26, 2016, 02:27:08 PM »

30% in

PP           30.74%
PSOE       24.17%
Podomos  21.33% 
C             10.93%

Podomos not gaining ground fast enough. 
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Velasco
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« Reply #948 on: June 26, 2016, 02:27:31 PM »

Do we know where those results are coming from? If they're representative, this looks like a major failure for Podemos.

You can see results by region, province or municipality in the official site. The count in smaller municiplaties usually goes fast, possibly urban areas will come later. I would wait until the count reaches 50%.

Maybe it's better following results in a media outlet. At least they make the addition of the different Podemos lists. I'll link El País:

http://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2016/generales/congreso/
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jaichind
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« Reply #949 on: June 26, 2016, 02:32:39 PM »

Do we know where those results are coming from? If they're representative, this looks like a major failure for Podemos.

You can see results by region, province or municipality in the official site. The count in smaller municiplaties usually goes fast, possibly urban areas will come later. I would wait until the count reaches 50%.

Maybe it's better following results in a media outlet. At least they make the addition of the different Podemos lists. I'll link El País:

http://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2016/generales/congreso/

At least the official site was nice enough to colorize all the Podemos lists in purple. 
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