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Velasco
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« Reply #200 on: May 18, 2015, 05:41:56 am »

Man the PSC and PPC are getting eaten alive in Catalonia. :0 also lmao at Spanish fleggers

Why can't Compromis and Podemos run on a common list?

There are bad prospects for PP and PSC, indeed. However (if we have to trust in a series of polls conducted by GESOP and released by El Periódico) PP resists in Badalona and PSC in several metropolitan municipalities such as l'Hospitalet and Santa Coloma, as well in Lleida and Tarragona (both are provincial capitals). The flegg issue is indeed stupid, keeping in mind that the discussion on the separatist "process" has been calmed down as of late.

Podemos decided to run alone nationwide in the regional elections. There might be a certain incompatibility between Podemos and Compromís, due to the peripheral nationalist component of the latter. The Valencian Nationalist Bloc (BNV) is the major partner in the Compromís coalition, although they are moderate in their nationalism if compared with their separatist Catalan counterparts and candidate Mónica Oltra is not from the BNV ranks. Oltra was formerly in IU and currently leads a small party called Valencian's People Initiative (IdPV), which is associated with Equo (the Spanish greens). There is an obvious proximity between Oltra and Podemos.
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« Reply #201 on: May 18, 2015, 05:52:39 am »

Thanks.

It looks like Diaz is in more trouble in Andulacia. None of the other parties are refusing to bite. Reelection likely?
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Velasco
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« Reply #202 on: May 18, 2015, 08:42:18 am »

Uff... that's hard to predict. Right now there's a total deadlock. My impression is that Susana Díaz would prefer to reach a stability agreement with Ciudadanos rather than Podemos. Díaz is more a centrist with a sensibility for social issues than a left-winger. In her investiture speech she made nods with both C's and Podemos and launched some anti-corruption proposals consistent with those of the orange party. However, she didn't yield to the requirement made by C's and Podemos on the immediate withdrawal of former premiers Chaves and Griñán. To be fair, that's not entirely in her hands and both won't continue active in politics once their terms expire. Podemos, on the other hand, complains because Díaz is not prone to reach an agreement on their proposals (not contracting banks that evict people and a reduction of confidence posts in regional administration). Díaz seems to believe that her victory was a mandate for her to govern, while other people think that the result (the worst for PSOE in the historical series) was a mandate to implement changes in the style of governance. I think there's a mix of  of political calculation, a certain arrogance in the contending parties and a political culture based on confrontation instead of pact.  I'd say the unlock is mainly in the hands of Albert Rivera, but we'll see.
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Velasco
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« Reply #203 on: May 19, 2015, 05:04:29 am »

To give an idea on how uncertain is the result of the upcoming elections, the graph below shows the percentage of undecided voters according to the last CIS survey in the 13 regions holding elections, as well in the cities of Madrid and Barcelona:

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Velasco
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« Reply #204 on: May 19, 2015, 01:53:41 pm »
« Edited: May 21, 2015, 04:45:24 am by Velasco »

El Mundo today*: " ETA prisoners want Podemos in the government". The subheadline says: "They are just like us, but Spaniards". According to that, prisoners encourage their group of friends to vote for the guy with the ponytail (Pablo Iglesias) and advise EH Bildu abertzales that they must not run in the general election and endorse Podemos. Supposedly, the 'scoop' is based on private conversations recorded at prison.


The Spanish paper is definitely reaching the level of glorious tabloid papers like the News of the World, The Sun or The National Enquirer Grin

*El Mundo Today is an online satiric paper in Spanish. Highly recommendable (and more serious than El Mundo, it seems)

http://www.elmundotoday.com/
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Velasco
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« Reply #205 on: May 19, 2015, 06:17:26 pm »
« Edited: May 20, 2015, 11:35:07 am by Velasco »

Televised debate in the governmental Tele Madrid between the mayoral candidates running in the Spanish capital. Shame.


From left to right: Esperanza Aguirre (PP, dressed in orange), Manuela Carmena (Ahora Madrid), Daniel Morcillo (IU's number 5), Antonio Miguel Carmona (PSOE), Begoña Villacís (C's, in orange) and Javier Ortega-Smith (Vox).

Esperanza Aguirre had a face-to-face debate with Manuela Carmena. Consistently with that front page in El Mundo, Aguirre accused Carmena (a retired judge) of releasing members of ETA from prison, among the usual mentions to 'bolivarian' regimes and similar stuff. Carmena, whom never loses her temper, replied that PP candidate lacks of intellectual rigour and states feeling embarrassed because it's a "pity" that Aguirre feels compelled to say such simplistic things. "Everybody knows that I've been fighting for freedom and democracy all my life", said the Ahora Madrid candidate. Among other things, Carmena was judge of the Supreme Court, UN rapporteur, received a national human rights award and was co-founder of a labour law firm which suffered a terrorist attack from the far right in 1977 (Atocha killings).  It's all so sickening that is better leaving at that. One could say that polls placing Carmena side by side with Aguirre in the mayoral race have some plausibility.

Video here:

http://www.eldiario.es/rastreador/Carmena-Aguirre-sorprende-actitud-reconocer_6_389921011.html

After that poll showing Aguirre in a technical tie with Carmena was released, the leader of PP in Madrid stated that "if Podemos wins, it will be the last time Spaniards vote freely".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/18/inenglish/1431957479_408167.html

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Velasco
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« Reply #206 on: May 20, 2015, 08:20:29 am »

Campaign news.

"Clash" in the mayoral debate:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/20/inenglish/1432112700_244670.html

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Socialist candidate for Madrid mayor moots local ID cards for non-residents (Albert Rivera won't like it):

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/20/inenglish/1432115697_622775.html

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PM Mariano Rajoy lives in Wonderland: "Who’s talking about bailouts, recession or unemployment?"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/19/inenglish/1432051165_330439.html

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Young, elder and undecided women are key in the battles for Madrid and Barcelona, says another analysis on CIS survey (in Spanish)

http://www.eldiario.es/piedrasdepapel/Madrid-Barcelona_6_389921005.html

Interesting prediction based on average polling with graphs and stuff in El Español, the new digital vehicle of the  ineffable Pedro J Ramírez (the machiavellian former editor of El Mundo who apparently was sacked because of pressures from La Moncloa).

Madrid: Aguirre or Carmena? Average polling is not as optimistic as the last Metroscopia poll; there's disparity in estimations. Measured: Metroscopia, NC Report, Sigma Dos and MyWord.

PP 34.5% (22 councilors), AM 21.8% (14), PSOE 18.4% (11), C's 16% (10), IU 4.1% (-)

http://www.elespanol.com/actualidad/aguirre-o-carmena-una-prediccion-de-sus-votos-y-sus-alianzas/

Barcelona: Trias or Colau? Mesured: Metroscopia, Sigma Dos, GAD3 and Feedback.

CiU 23.1% (10), BComú 20.2% (9), C's 13.8% (6), PSC 12.1% (5), ERC 11% (5), PP 9.9% (4), CUP 5.6% (2)

http://www.elespanol.com/actualidad/trias-o-colau-una-prediccion-de-sus-votos-y-sus-alianzas/

The delegation of El Periódico in Andorra will release daily trackings for Barcelona conducted by GESOP, now that it's illegal doing so in Spain.
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Velasco
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« Reply #207 on: May 21, 2015, 05:13:59 am »
« Edited: May 21, 2015, 05:18:08 am by Velasco »

The 'forbidden' polls from Andorra (this is not a Spanish site, so I guess I'm not breaking the law). Technical tie between Xavier Trias (CiU) and Ada Colau (BComú). PP, PSC and C's are tied in third place, ERC is technically tied with those parties and CUP is on the edge of the 5% threshold.

Barcelona City Hall (41 councilors) GESOP / El Periòdic

CiU 23% (10-11), BComú 21% (9-10), PP 11.9% (5-6), PSC 11.7% (5-6), C's 11.5% (5-6), ERC 10.5% (4-5), CUP 5% (0-2).

Direct vote intention: BComú 20.3%, CiU 18.8%, ERC 10.3%, C's 7.3%, PSC 6%, PP 3.8%, CUP 3%

http://www.elperiodic.ad/noticia/44170/auguris-a-el-periodic

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Velasco
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« Reply #208 on: May 22, 2015, 12:59:28 am »
« Edited: May 22, 2015, 02:04:12 am by Velasco »

According to El País, Ciudadanos might be more willing to forge agreements with PSOE than PP.  I ignore to what extent the news is wishful thinking, but...

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/21/inenglish/1432199149_328545.html

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Albert Rivera denied in an interview in El Diario that he's a man on the right, as well criticised the Podemos' "excessive calculation" that might take its toll to them. People thinking in C's as the "crutch" in which PSOE lies in Andalusia and PP in the rest of Spain is mistaken, said Rivera.

However, PSOE and C's are at odds in Andalusia. According to an influential figure in the surroundings of the orange party:

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A week ago premier Susana Díaz lost the third vote in the regional parliament, after talks between groups stalled. Podemos C's and IU said that PSOE failed to accept any of their conditions, while the PP says its vote is conditioned by a new inquiry into the reopening of the Aznalcóllar mine (it produced zinc and silver and was owned by Boliden AB, a Swedish company), which created a major environmental disaster in 1998 when a toxic waste reservoir burst around the nature preserve of Doñana National Park.

According to the same news and a statement made by Íñigo Errejón, Podemos expects to negotiate with PSOE after May 24 in order to eject PP from regional and local governments.

On the other hand Esperanza Aguirre and Rita Barberá, the veteran politicians standing as PP mayoral candidates for Madrid and Valencia, are surrounded by contentious issues. Infolibre leaked yesterday Aguirre's tax returns. The leader of PP in Madrid earned a total amount of 374,000 Euros in 2013, 369 thousand from a talent search firm called Seelinger & Conde and the remaining 5 thousand from "games of chance". Her high emoluments shocked people and many point ironically that Aguirre has showed little aptitudes for headhunting while she was Madrid premier, given that her partners Francisco Granados and Ignacio González are involved in corruption scandals and regional PP is rotten by multiple corrupt plots. Aguirre has claimed several times that her income was so meagre that she could hardly pay energy bills. PP candidate for Mayor of Madrid felt outraged by the leakage and filed a complaint with the Prosecutor General's Office alleging violation of the right to privacy; the Treasury is about to open an inquiry. Aguirre was very local in criticising Juan Carlos Monedero (Podemos) when another leakage revealed that he received a certain amount of money in exchange for consultancy works; funnily enough she said her PSOE rival in the mayoral race is "rich", because he gets two salaries (Antonio Miguel Carmona is member of the regional assembly and university professor).

Incumbent Mayoress of Valencia Rita Barberá is involved in several controversies, being the last an allegation made by Compromís accusing her of misuse of public funds to pay her travel expenses (including bodyguards) and attend PP acts. Hotel, travel and restaurant bills, as well gifts defrayed by the Valencia cabinet office, are published in the Compromís site. Tonight Mariano Rajoy attended a rally in support of Valencia regional premier Albert Fabra and Ms Barberá. No mentions to corruption affecting the Valencian PP.

Pablo Iglesias attended a crowded rally in Zaragoza, in support of candidate for Aragón premier Pablo Echenique. Podemos people is enthusiastic: "Pablo is back".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=48&v=8us4tBPKdlU

There's a very detailed map by municipality in El País showing the current share of the local power in Spain. Includes parties placing first and second in the 2011 elections and vote share by municipality for PP, PSOE, IU, UPyD, CiU and PNV.

 http://elpais.com/especiales/2015/elecciones-autonomicas-municipales/graficos/municipios/
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Velasco
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« Reply #209 on: May 22, 2015, 02:32:56 am »

According to the GESOP tracking, Xavier Trias seems to be consolidating a slight advantage over Ada Colau in Barcelona. In the graph, preferred mayor and direct vote intention.


Full poll here:

http://www.elperiodic.ad/noticia/44212/trias-consolida-su-ligera-ventaja-sobre-colau
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Nanwe
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« Reply #210 on: May 24, 2015, 07:38:25 am »

Since it's election day, a brief recap of all the Spanish parties today:

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Velasco
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« Reply #211 on: May 24, 2015, 11:21:45 am »

Since it's election day, a brief recap of all the Spanish parties today:

Nice. At the end of the day Mr Burns finances all of them, isn't it? Except Podemos people because of the crowdfunding, although they indeed have a Messiah Grin The only thing is the characterisation of C's: Rivera and his followers dress more elegantly than that.

Could you vote by mail? It's not easy with the voto rogado system.

I voted at midday and it was the first time that I had to queue at the polling booth. But not at the ballot box, luckily. There are several census sections in the poling station and mine has few voters -people had to wait at the more crowded box on my right. I had to cast three ballots: regional parliament, councilors and Cabildo.

However, the report from Ministry of Interior said that turnout decreased by 1% nationwide at 14:00 (CET) with regard to 2011 (34.8% to 35.8%). Figures correspond to the municipal elections that are being held in all of Spain.
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Velasco
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« Reply #212 on: May 24, 2015, 01:11:14 pm »

Turnout nationwide at 18:00 (CET): 49.78% (49.19% in 2011).

High increases in the cities of Barcelona  (+8%) and San Sebastián (+7%). Turnout is about 3% higher in the cities of Madrid (53.3% / 50.41%) and Valencia, while decreases about 3% in Seville (45.23% / 45.11%).

95% of the 1.8 million of Spaniards living abroad won't vote in this election. Protests have taken place in 40 cities around the world (Amsterdam, Berlin, Boston, Buenos Aires and Copenhagen, among others) against the law that regulates vote abroad (the voto rogado), which puts many administrative obstacles to vote by mail and was passed in 2010 with the support of PSOE, PP, CiU and BNG. Nowadays socialists promise to change it once in power, while PP is against any reform of the system because "it's a guarantee". Fun fact: In the Andalusian election Podemos won the overseas vote; votes cast were a few thousand, though.
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« Reply #213 on: May 24, 2015, 01:29:05 pm »

Any English language results pages?
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Velasco
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« Reply #214 on: May 24, 2015, 01:36:16 pm »
« Edited: May 24, 2015, 01:56:21 pm by Velasco »

Exit polls for regional televisions.

City of Madrid (Tele Madrid): AM 33.8% (22-23 councilors), PP 31.9% (19-22), PSOE 15.5% (9-10), C's 10.8% (6-7).

Madrid Regional Assembly: PP 30.8% (43-46 seats), PSOE 33-36 seats, Podemos 22.3% (30-33), C's 12%  (16-18)

Barcelona (TV3): BComú 10-12, CiU 9-11 councilors, PSC 4-5, C's 4-5, ERC 3-4, CUP 3-4

Seville (Canal Sur): PSOE 12-14 councilors, PP 10-12, C's 4, Participa Sevilla (Podemos) 4, IU 2.

Antena 3 says that PP takes the lead in Madrid with 21-23 councilors, followed by Ahora Madrid (17-19), while in Barcelona CiU would get 11-12 councilors and Barcelona en Comú would trail getting 10-11, PSC 5-6, PP 4-5 and ERC 3-4.

According to Antena 3 exit poll, PP would get 27% nationwide (-10%) and PSOE 25% (-2%). Podemos and C's would win seats in every regional parliament.

This is going to be exciting to watch.

Any English language results pages?

I don't know anyone. I'll link the official website once they are reporting official results. Booths are still open in the Canaries.
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« Reply #215 on: May 24, 2015, 01:40:38 pm »

Does it actually matter which party has a plurality of seats in a given municipality? isn't it all about who can form a coalition? If PP has the largest number of seats, what happens if PSOE, Podemos and other leftwing parties have a majority?
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Velasco
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« Reply #216 on: May 24, 2015, 01:46:09 pm »
« Edited: May 24, 2015, 01:48:36 pm by Velasco »

Does it actually matter which party has a plurality of seats in a given municipality? isn't it all about who can form a coalition? If PP has the largest number of seats, what happens if PSOE, Podemos and other leftwing parties have a majority?

Yes. In case that no party or coalition of parties get a majority, the party with the largest number of seats gets the mayoralty. If PP gets a plurality of seats in the city of Madrid only a coalition of parties with a majority in the council can elect another mayor. In regional assemblies candidates need a majority to pass the investiture in the first vote.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #217 on: May 24, 2015, 02:05:39 pm »

Does it actually matter which party has a plurality of seats in a given municipality? isn't it all about who can form a coalition? If PP has the largest number of seats, what happens if PSOE, Podemos and other leftwing parties have a majority?

Yes. In case that no party or coalition of parties get a majority, the party with the largest number of seats gets the mayoralty. If PP gets a plurality of seats in the city of Madrid only a coalition of parties with a majority in the council can elect another mayor. In regional assemblies candidates need a majority to pass the investiture in the first vote.
In 1989, third-placed CDS got Madrid's mayoralty with PP's support.
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Velasco
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« Reply #218 on: May 24, 2015, 02:23:08 pm »

You can check regional and municipal results in El País website (as well in other media outlets):

http://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/autonomicas-municipales.html

Provisional results of local elections in the Ministry of Interior:

http://resultadoslocales2015.interior.es/99MU/DMU99999TO_L1.htm

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Nanwe
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« Reply #219 on: May 24, 2015, 02:48:23 pm »

Does it actually matter which party has a plurality of seats in a given municipality? isn't it all about who can form a coalition? If PP has the largest number of seats, what happens if PSOE, Podemos and other leftwing parties have a majority?

Yes. In case that no party or coalition of parties get a majority, the party with the largest number of seats gets the mayoralty. If PP gets a plurality of seats in the city of Madrid only a coalition of parties with a majority in the council can elect another mayor. In regional assemblies candidates need a majority to pass the investiture in the first vote.
In 1989, third-placed CDS got Madrid's mayoralty with PP's support.

Exactly, PP and PSOE made a deal to govern together, hence having the absolute majority. he condition was that Rodríguez Sahagún had to be the mayor. Btw, this deal was a big reason why CDS collapsed.
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Velasco
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« Reply #220 on: May 24, 2015, 03:05:17 pm »

Count in the Basque Country is going quite fast. PNV retains Bilbao (at 91.7%), wins San Sebastían to EH Bildu (which falls to the third place) and PP retains a plurality in Vitoria.

Bilbao (91.7%): PNV 13 councilors, EH Bildu 4, PSE-EE 4, PP 4, Udalberri-Bilbao en Cmún 2, Ganemos 2.

Donostia / San Sebastián (74.2%): PNV 9, PSE-EE 7, EH Bildu 7, PP 2, Irabazi 2

Vitoria / Gasteiz (82%): PP 9, EH Bildu 6, PNV 5, PSE-EE 4, Hemen-Gaude (Podemos) 2, Irabazi (IU-Equo-Ganemos) 1

In Andalusia, PSOE wins Seville to PP while in Málaga the blues retain the first place.

Seville (84.9%): PSOE 12, PP 11, C's 3, Participa Sevilla 3, IU 2

Málaga (81%): PP 13, PSOE 9, Málaga Ahora 4, C's 3, IU 2

By the moment Ada Colau (BComú) is ahead in Barcelona getting 12 councilors with the count approx. at 38.9%. In Madrid the count is at 14.66%. Ahora Madrid is slightly ahead of PP and both lists are tied at 20 councilors.

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« Reply #221 on: May 24, 2015, 03:40:55 pm »
« Edited: May 24, 2015, 04:01:42 pm by Velasco »

Madrid (83.9%): PP 21 councilors, AM 19, PSOE 10, C's 7.

Manuela Carmena could be mayor propped up by PSOE but, as the count has progressed, socialists have lost 1 councilor to PP. Still too close to call, because the left has a single seat majority. IU and UPyD are getting 1.8% each.

Barcelona (92.8%): BComú 11 councilors, CiU 10, ERC 5, C's 5, PSC 4, PP 3, CUP 3.

More complicated, but Ada Colau has chances to be the next mayor.

Valencia (79.1%): PP 10 councilors, Compromís 9, C's 6, PSOE 5, Valencia en Comú 3.  IU is out of the council getting 4.7% of the vote (threshold is at 5%).

Compromís is the big surprise and can win the mayoralty with the support of PSOE and the Podemos outfit.

Zaragoza (97.1%): PP 10, Zaragoza en Común (ZGZ) 9, PSOE 6, C's 4, CHA 2.

ZGZ includes Podemos and IU. It can win the mayoralty with the support of PSOE and the regionalist CHA. I've just heard to some political sciencist that the city of Zaragoza is considered a kind of experimental ground to spot urban vote trends.

Regional count is progressing more slowly.

Asturias is already at 70%: PSOE 14 seats, PP 11, Podemos 10, IU 5, C's 3, FAC 2.

PSOE and IU resist, while Foro Asturias fails miserably. Podemos comes in a strong 3rd getting nearly 20% of the vote. It's possible that the good result for IU (12.3%) can be attributed to candidate Gaspar Llamazares.

Navarre is at 62%: UPN 15, Geroa Bai 9, EH Bildu 8, PSOE 7, Podemos 7, PP 2, IU 2

Better than expected for PSOE.

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« Reply #222 on: May 24, 2015, 04:14:08 pm »
« Edited: May 24, 2015, 04:16:13 pm by Velasco »

Barcelona at 99.2%

BComú 25.2% (11 councilors), CiU 22.7% (10), C's 11.1% (5), ERC 11% (5), PSC 9.7% (4), PP 8.7% (3), CUP 7.4% (3).

Madrid at 91.6%

PP 34.1% (21 councilors), AM 32.1% (20), PSOE 15.6% (9), C's 11.3% (7)

Valencia at 91.8%

PP 25.8% (10 councilors), Compromís 23.3% (9), C's 15.4% (6), PSOE 14% (5), VEC 9.8% (3), IU 4.7%

Seville at 92.6%

PP 33% (12), PSOE 32.2% (11), C's 9.3% (3), Participa Sevilla 9.1% (3), IU 6% (2)

Zaragoza at 99.6%

PP 26.9% (10), ZGZ 24.6% (9), PSOE 18.6% (6), C's 12.3% (4), CHA 6.8% (2)
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« Reply #223 on: May 24, 2015, 04:21:24 pm »

I know the failure of UpyD has been a long time coming, but these results (especially from Madrid) have to make them pause for thought. Will they even last to the general.

What happened to Bildu?  PODEMOS stole their thunder?
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« Reply #224 on: May 24, 2015, 04:27:34 pm »
« Edited: May 24, 2015, 04:35:56 pm by Velasco »

I know the failure of UpyD has been a long time coming, but these results (especially from Madrid) have to make them pause for thought. Will they even last to the general.

What happened to Bildu?  PODEMOS stole their thunder?

I'm afraid that UPyD is done. I'm not going to try to explain the reasons now. Results will deepen the UPyD crisis.

The lists backed by Podemos are not getting extraordinay results in the Basque Country. I think the loss of Donostia can be attributed to local factors, and it's a big success for PNV (the party recovers a city lost nearly 30 years ago).

By the moment, count progress say that PP can lose the regions of Aragon, Valencia, Balearic Islands, Extremadura and Madrid. It holds Murcia and La Rioja.

EDIT: Rosa Díez is speaking right now. She won't run in the general election. Spokesman Andrés Herzog says that UPyD is still alive.
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