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« Reply #225 on: May 24, 2015, 04:54:24 pm »

wtf is happening in Castilla La Mancha? Did nobody tell them this election is about the downfall of two-party politics?

Also they must have some crazy high threshold, because C's has 8.73% of the vote and no seats.
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« Reply #226 on: May 24, 2015, 05:08:45 pm »

Navarre looks like fun. The UPN was last time helped into office by the regional branch of the PSOE, but it will need another ally now. There is a mad four way pile up for second place between Podemos, PSOE Bildu and Geroa Bai.

These El Pais results are really fun to play with btw. I'm trying to find a single result that actually has a majority. All I've found so far is Ceuta, one of the little Spanish enclaves in Morocco.
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Velasco
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« Reply #227 on: May 24, 2015, 05:17:28 pm »
« Edited: May 25, 2015, 04:52:43 am by Velasco »

Regional elections.

Aragon (at 99.1%)

PP 27.5% (21 seats), PSOE 21.4% (18), Podemos 20.5% (14), PAR 6.9% (6), C's 9.4% (5) CHA 4.6% (2), IU 4.2% (1)

PP possibly ousted by PSOE, Podemos, CHA and IU

Asturias (at 99.3%)

PSOE 26.4% (14 seats), PP 21.6% (11), Podemos 19% (9), IU 11.9% (5), FAC 8.2% (3), C's 7.1% (3)

Balearic Islands (at 99.2%)

PP 28.5% (20), PSOE 18.9% (14), Podemos 14.7% (10), Més per Mallorca 13.8% (6), PI 8% (3), Més per Menorca 1.5% (3), C's 5.9% (2), Gent (Formentera) 0.5% (1), IU 1.7% (-)

PSOE may govern allied with Podemos and the nationalist Més (Mallorca and Menorca).

Canary Islands (at 99.3%)

CC 18.2% (18), PSOE 19.9% (15), PP 18.6% (12), Podemos 14.5% (7), NC 10.2% (5), ASG 0,6% (3), C's 5.9% (-), UNIDOS 3.6% (-), IU+nationalists 2.2% (-)

C's fails to reach the 6% regional threshold and is out, while Casimiro Curbelo (ASG) wins a landslide in La Gomera surpassing the 30% insular threshold. The surrealistic electoral system allows CC to win a plurality of seats being the 3rd party in popular vote. PSOE resists and wins a plurality of votes, Podemos gets in strongly and the New Canaries improves (winning the Gran Canaria Cabildo). PP downfall; they'll become irrelevant. CC is inevitable to form coalitions.

Cantabria (at 98.6%)

PP 32.6% (13), PRC 30% (12), PSOE 14% (5), Podemos 8.8% (3), C's 6.9% (2), IU 2.5% (-)

Possibly PRC and socialists may govern propped up by Podemos.

Castilla-La Mancha (at 99.3%)

PP 37.5% (16), PSOE 36.1% (14), Podemos 9.7% (3), C's 8.6% (-), IU 3.1% (-)

Dolores de Cospedal has lost, despite winning a plurality. PSOE may govern propped up by Podemos.

Castilla y León (at 99.5%)

PP 37.9% (42), PSOE 25.9% (25), Podemos 12.1% (10), C's 10.3% (5), IU 4.1% (1), UPL 1.4% (1), UPyD 1.4% (-)

PP holds getting 1/2 of the seats.

Extremadura (at 99.8%)

PSOE 41.5% (20), PP 37% (28), Podemos 8% (6), C's 4.4% (1), IU 4.3% (-)

Fernández Vara (PSOE) defeats Monago (PP).

La Rioja (at 98%)

PP 38.5% (15), PSOE 26.6% (10), Podemos 11.2% (4), C's 10.5% (4)

Likely PP holds.

Madrid (at 99.96%)

PP 33.1% (48), PSOE 25.4% (37), Podemos 18.6% (27), C's 12.1% (17), IU 4.1% (-), UPyD 2%, Vox 1.2% (-), PACMA 1%

Cristina Cifuentes (PP) may govern propped up by C's.

Murcia (at 98.9%)

PP 37.4% (22), PSOE 24% (13), Podemos 13.1% (6), C's 12.5% (4), IU 4.8% (-), UPyD 1.6% (-)

Likely PP holds; it's one seat short from majority.

Navarre (at 99.3%)

UPN 27.3% (15), Geroa Bai 15.9% (9), EH Bildu 14.3% ( 8 ), Podemos 13.7% (7), PSOE 13.4% (7), PP 3.9% (2), IU 3.7% (2),  C's 2.9% (-)

Possible majority adding Geroa Bai, EH Bildu, Podemos and IU. C's fails to reach the 3% threshold which allows to win seats.

Valencia (at 99.3%)

PP 26.2% (31), PSOE 20.3% (23), Compromís 18.2% (19), C's 12.3% (13), Podemos 11.2% (13), IU 4.3% (-), UPyD 1.1% (-)

PSOE, Compromís and Podemos can oust PP from government. Great result for Mónica Oltra (I'd say she's the moral victor here). Compromís transcends the (limited) regionalist vote in Valencia.

PP gets a majority in the autonomous city of Ceuta and falls short by one seat in Melilla (likely hold).
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« Reply #228 on: May 24, 2015, 05:18:52 pm »

hilarious municipal results in Catalonia.

Podemos's insistence on running in like a billion municipal outfits really makes it complicated to assess how well they did on a national scale lol.
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Velasco
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« Reply #229 on: May 24, 2015, 05:20:13 pm »
« Edited: May 24, 2015, 05:22:32 pm by Velasco »

wtf is happening in Castilla La Mancha? Did nobody tell them this election is about the downfall of two-party politics?

Also they must have some crazy high threshold, because C's has 8.73% of the vote and no seats.

Dolores de Cospedal decided to reduce drastically the number of seats in the regional assembly. That move can be counterproductive for her if she doesn't win the 17th seat. The region must be the most polarised between PP and PSOE, alongside with Extremadura (PSOE wins).

hilarious municipal results in Catalonia.

Podemos's insistence on running in like a billion municipal outfits really makes it complicated to assess how well they did on a national scale lol.

I wouldn't try to calculate that. Madrid and Barcelona have been huge succeses, but results are very heterogeneous through all Spain. Municipal results in Catalonia would deserve more attention. Too many things happening.
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« Reply #230 on: May 24, 2015, 05:27:25 pm »

Can someone tell me what has happened in Soria - PSOE have gotten the most votes but PP have by far the most councillors.
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Velasco
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« Reply #231 on: May 24, 2015, 05:35:12 pm »

Can someone tell me what has happened in Soria - PSOE have gotten the most votes but PP have by far the most councillors.

In the provincial total PSOE gets more votes but less councilors than PP. However, in the town of Soria (the capital) PSOE has a big lead getting 47% of the vote and a majority of councilors. Maybe PSOE has won in other provincial centres, but PP must have won in most of the small municipalities. The province has a lot of municipalities with less than 1000 votes, a councilor is "cheaper" in those places.
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Velasco
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« Reply #232 on: May 24, 2015, 05:44:06 pm »
« Edited: May 25, 2015, 04:53:55 am by Velasco »

It seems that PP can lose my hometown.

Las Palmas de Gran Canaria is at 99.7%.

PP 28.7% (10 councilors), PSOE 19.7% (7), Podemos outfit 16.1% (6), C's 7.7% (2), NC 7.5% (2), UxGC 5.6% (2). PSOE+Podemos+NC add 15 out of 29 councilors. Great news.

Cabildo of Gran Canaria (at 99.5%):

NC 26.5% (9 councilors), PP 17.5% (6), PSOE 14.5% (5), Podemos 13.4% (4), UxGC 11.3% (4), CC 5.6% (1), C's 4.3% (-), IU 1.5%

Antonio Morales (NC) will be next president of the Cabildo. It's a good candidate and I voted for him, even though I despise his party. PP downfall while incumbent president (a PP old timer who got angry at Minister of Industry José Manuel Soria) gets into the Cabildo leading the Unidos por Gran Canaria outfit (UxGC).


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« Reply #233 on: May 24, 2015, 05:45:12 pm »

Can someone tell me what has happened in Soria - PSOE have gotten the most votes but PP have by far the most councillors.

In the provincial total PSOE gets more votes but less councilors than PP. However, in the town of Soria (the capital) PSOE has a big lead getting 47% of the vote and a majority of councilors. Maybe PSOE has won in other provincial centres, but PP must have won in most of the small municipalities. The province has a lot of municipalities with less than 1000 votes, a councilor is "cheaper" in those places.

Right. That's kind of what I thought.

Looking at the local results now - Podemos and their affiliates didn't put a lot of effort in running on councils outside the major centers, did they?
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Velasco
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« Reply #234 on: May 24, 2015, 05:46:48 pm »
« Edited: May 24, 2015, 07:14:02 pm by Velasco »

They could have done better.
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Velasco
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« Reply #235 on: May 24, 2015, 05:59:11 pm »

The results in Madrid municipal districts are fun to watch too (available in the official site).

Manuela Carmena gets 49.1% in Centro to Esperanza Aguirre's 26.5%. That district includes the Lavapiés neighbourhood, which is the birth place of Podemos. Esperanza Aguirre gets 52.3% in Salamanca and Carmena 20.8%. In Puente de Vallecas PP comes third (18.1%) behind AM (42.2%) and PSOE (25%).

In Barcelona there are huge differences between districts. Better with maps, I guess.
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« Reply #236 on: May 24, 2015, 06:09:27 pm »

The results in Madrid municipal districts are fun to watch too (available in the official site).

Manuela Carmena gets 49.1% in Centro to Esperanza Aguirre's 26.5%. That district includes the Lavapiés neighbourhood, which is the birth place of Podemos. Esperanza Aguirre gets 52.3% in Salamanca and Carmena 20.8%. In Puente de Vallecas PP comes third (18.1%) behind AM (42.2%) and PSOE (25%).

In Barcelona there are huge differences between districts. Better with maps, I guess.

Oh,of course

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Velasco
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« Reply #237 on: May 24, 2015, 06:12:32 pm »
« Edited: May 25, 2015, 03:48:32 am by Velasco »

Fun fact: all 4 seats returned from La Gomera to the Canarian Parliament are 'socialist'. The Casimiro Curbelo outfit (ASG, something like "Gomera Socialist Grouping") wins 3 seats and PSOE the remaining.

Cabildo of La Gomera (100%).

ASG 50.2% (10 councilors), PSOE 15.3% (3), PP 9.2% (1), SSP (Podemos) 9.2% (1), NC 9% (1), CC 6.2% (1)
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Velasco
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« Reply #238 on: May 24, 2015, 06:28:00 pm »

In the region of Madrid things have reversed a bit (PP +1, PSOE -1). With the count at 98% PP wins 48 seats, PSOE 37, Podemos 27 and C's 17. PP+C's 65, PSOE+Podemos 64. Cristina Cifuentes (PP) could hold if C's allows her. Dual vote in the city of Madrid between Manuela Carmena and Ángel Gabilondo. In the regional election PP gets 35% in the capital (more than Aguirre in the local), PSOE 25.7%, Podemos 17.8% and C's 11.3%.

Valencia seems definitely lost for PP, both the city and the region.
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Velasco
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« Reply #239 on: May 24, 2015, 06:49:56 pm »

Galician municipalities.

Marea Atlántica (AGE, Podemos) is ahead by 100 votes of PP in La Coruña winning 10 councilors each, PSOE wins 6 and BNG 1.

Compostela Aberta (same as Marea) is ahead in Santiago winning 11 councilors, PP 10, PSOE 4 and BNG 2.

Socialist landslide in Vigo: PSOE 17 councilors, PP 7 and Marea de Vigo 3.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #240 on: May 25, 2015, 02:15:19 am »

The PP loses the absholute majority in CyL, they'll probably govern nonetheless since for the left to govern it'd require PSOE+Podemos+C's+IU+UPL. That being said, the fact that the PP lost the majority in Spain's most rural and conservative region (maybe also La Rioja?) is very telling of the electoral catastrophe of the PP.
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Velasco
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« Reply #241 on: May 25, 2015, 03:33:59 am »

NYT: "Ruling party Loses Hold as Leftists surge in Spain"

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/25/world/europe/ruling-party-loses-hold-as-leftists-surge-in-spain.html?hpw&rref=world&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well&_r=1

Wall Street Journal: "Podemos and Ciudadanos Punish Spain's Ruling Popular Party in Regional Elections"

Le Monde: Indignados Surge.

http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2015/05/25/elections-en-espagne-percee-historique-des-indignes_4639655_3214.html

The Guardian: "Spain's indignados could rule Madrid and Barcelona after local election success"

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/25/spains-indignados-ada-colau-elections-mayor-barcelona

La Reppublica: "Electoral earthquake"

http://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2015/05/24/news/elezioni_amministrative_spagna-115170250/?ref=HREA-1

O Globo: The left advances.

http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/esquerda-avanca-na-espanha-toma-terreno-do-pp-16251279

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Nanwe
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« Reply #242 on: May 25, 2015, 03:46:07 am »
« Edited: May 25, 2015, 03:58:31 am by Nanwe »

And Velasco, no I didn't vote, it is far too complicated to vote from abraod these days. You have to register ahead, which means a 2 1/2 hour journey with the right papers to Amsterdam by train (20 euros or so), plus paying a fee and then sending it and provided I get all the stuff. So I didn't bother. I will for the general ones though.

As for tonight, it is pretty much amazing. The results imply that the PP has lost every single majority, including such conservative bastions as Murcia, La Rioja or Castilla y León. Although in all these three, a broad - and potentially unstable - anti-pepero coalitions would have to be created since the party is 1 or 2 seats away from the majority in those three regions. But still it's amazing.

In my home town of Valladolid, de la Riva might lose the government, the PP's support in the real capital of Spain has gone down from 52% to 35%, and a PSOE-IU-Podemos alliance could give the city to the left for the first time since the early 1980s. And while de la Riva is a pretty competent mayor, he is however an asshole, a misogynist and talks too much. In my other home town, Alcalá de Henares, Madrid's third largest city, the PP has lost its absolute majority, and not even the unholy pact with España 2000 will it be able to continue governing like it did in 2011.

Interestingly also in Madrid, in Torrejón de Ardoz, the PP retains its absolute majority with with 52% of the vote, but it is understandable, in 2011 it obtained a 70% majority, and it won a minority for the first time ever in 2007. From what I understand the previous IU-PSOE coalitions that ruled the city from 1979 to 2007 were not just corrupt but incredibly inefficient, useless and incompetent. And even communist friends of mine admit that they wouldn't mind a PP like Torrejon's governing, because they have done a very good job, which explains why that majority has withstood today's electoral tsunami.


Also, if let's there's anti-PP coalitions everywhere (far from certain tho), it would mean that in all CCAA save Galicia, a party other than the PP will govern, this is going to create for the remainder of the year a tremendous conflict between the central government and the regions. Because the PP may have an absolute majority in Congress but if the CCAA are unwilling to implement the laws it will become very hard to govern. Either that or the PP has to accommodate t


The effects of Cospedal's gerrymandering:

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Velasco
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« Reply #243 on: May 25, 2015, 03:58:56 am »
« Edited: May 25, 2015, 04:58:58 am by Velasco »

Nanwe, did you know that Esperanza Aguirre and Dolores de Cospedal lacked of a platform until the very end of the campaign? Finally Aguirre drafted a 10 point leaflet: hilarious. This morning Aguirre's campaign has been called "arrogant" and "disastrous", even by conservative analysts like Javier Zarzalejos (a very smart man, on the other hand). Both Aguirre and Cospedal deserved their defeats, as well Rita Barberá and León de la Riva (he's indeed an asshole). Podemos and C's (the latter taking advantage of the gap opened by the former) are relevant national actors now, but they can't say their victory is complete. From now on, they'll have to negotiate and reach compromises. Things are going to be much more interesting. In what regards coalitions or governability agreements, nothing is certain. However, Podemos people said that in neither case they were going to let PP govern if it was depending on them.
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« Reply #244 on: May 25, 2015, 05:54:01 am »
« Edited: May 25, 2015, 05:55:41 am by Nanwe »

Nanwe, did you know that Esperanza Aguirre and Dolores de Cospedal lacked of a platform until the very end of the campaign? Finally Aguirre drafted a 10 point leaflet: hilarious.

I knew about Aguirre, not Cospedal though. I remember her defence of that was saying that 'no one reads them anyway'. Which may be true, but you cannot pretend to win an election without at least giving the citizens the possibility of knowing what you are going to do, or promising to do at any rate. It is ridiculous.

In any case, what were they going to promise? End corruption? End cuts? Stability, arrogance and continuance were the only things they could offer, and voters wanted none of that, and both were smart enough to know it. So why bother? Especially in Aguirre's case, it was better to run a personalist campaign.

This morning Aguirre's campaign has been called "arrogant" and "disastrous", even by conservative analysts like Javier Zarzalejos (a very smart man, on the other hand).

That's so evident that even the President of FAES had to see it. No programme, gaffes that not even her popularity could fix, and ridiculous attacks on a former judge by being far too over-aggressive on the debates. What a shameful campaign.

Both Aguirre and Cospedal deserved their defeats, as well Rita Barberá and León de la Riva (he's indeed an asshole).

I don't think De la riva deserved to lose on a management level, Valladolid is a fairly well-run city overall, much better than most towns in Madrid, at least from what I see and compare, but from a political level he does, plus 24 years or so governing is too long. The only bright spot is that despite being such a misogynist, he was against the PP's reform of abortion, probably because he's a gynaecologist. Or when he appointed Spain's first city councillor with Down's syndrome two years ago.

All of them deserve their defeat, the only half-likeable PP baron is Feijóo, and he wasn't up to election anyway. Everyone else ran stupid campaigns, while the PSOE tried to hide its name in its campaign and highlighting the personal side of the candidates, which I think will lead to further inner struggle. Although this has reinforced Sánchez' position within the party. I would say.

Podemos and C's (the latter taking advantage of the gap opened by the former) are relevant national actors now, but they can't say their victory is complete. From now on, they'll have to negotiate and reach compromises. Things are going to be much more interesting. In what regards coalitions or governability agreements, nothing is certain. However, Podemos people said that in neither case they were going to let PP govern if it was depending on them.

Indeed, and we'll see if they don't crush and burn because of getting into the meddlesome and dirty world of practical politics in parliament. The CAM is particularly interesting, either a PP minority with support from C's through abstaining or a left-wing shaky government backed up by C's too. And in the meantime, if the former happens, then there'd be a left-wing mayor in Madrid (50-60% of CAM's pop.) to a right-wing (even if a fairly moderate one like Cifuentes) government in Puerta del Sol.

This article is fairly interesting (in Spanish): El resultado abre una brecha generacional en el PP de Raoy
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« Reply #245 on: May 25, 2015, 06:32:35 am »

Europa Press just released some fancy graphics, which I think are quite informative:

























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Velasco
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« Reply #246 on: May 25, 2015, 10:11:20 am »

Nice graphs. I'll take a look at the PP generation's gap thing Wink

Five urgent measures that Manuela Carmena will implement within the first hundred of days of her government, providing that she becomes mayor with the help of PSOE:

1) Provide the means and municipal resources necessary to stop first home evictions and guarantee alternative housing.

2) Stop the privatisation of public utilities, the outsource of municipal services to big businesses and the sale of public heritage.

3) Guaranteeing basic supplies such as water and energy to all households that can't afford them.

4) Guaranteeing access to municipal health protection, as well to health promotion and prevention actions to all people, regardless of their administrative status (irregulars, for instance)

5) Urgent job placement scheme to young people and long-time unemployed.

Barcelona en Comú has an emergency plan, too. I have no time to translate now.

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/05/25/madrid/1432556977_450859.html

Interactive map of results by municipality:

http://elpais.com/especiales/2015/elecciones-autonomicas-municipales/graficos/municipios/
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #247 on: May 25, 2015, 10:55:43 am »

The C's are getting in on the #orangeisthenewblue hashtag, lifted from Alberta.

https://twitter.com/EGigamesh/status/601011071432929281

Is it a good idea for C's to partner up so willingly with PP? My knowledge is that C's supporters are anti-establishment and centrist so are their supporters going to accept them being in a position similar to Lib Dem in the UK? Why can't a PSOE-C coalition be considered? I thought PP was further from the centre than PSOE (which shouldn't be scary at all to centrists) so that would be the natural to way to defeat incumbent PPs while preventing Podemos (which might scare centrists) from taking power.
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« Reply #248 on: May 25, 2015, 01:28:32 pm »

What will th army do now?!
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« Reply #249 on: May 25, 2015, 01:43:37 pm »

Gosh the Balearics are a mess. What an earth is going on there?
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