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Nanwe
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« Reply #250 on: May 25, 2015, 04:14:50 pm »

Gosh the Balearics are a mess. What an earth is going on there?

Some of the parties are Balearic regionalists, others are island-specific. It's pretty weird. Plus Catalan nationalists coexist with Podemos outfit and IU.
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« Reply #251 on: May 25, 2015, 05:57:13 pm »
« Edited: May 25, 2015, 06:04:17 pm by Velasco »

The C's are getting in on the #orangeisthenewblue hashtag, lifted from Alberta.

https://twitter.com/EGigamesh/status/601011071432929281

Is it a good idea for C's to partner up so willingly with PP? My knowledge is that C's supporters are anti-establishment and centrist so are their supporters going to accept them being in a position similar to Lib Dem in the UK? Why can't a PSOE-C coalition be considered? I thought PP was further from the centre than PSOE (which shouldn't be scary at all to centrists) so that would be the natural to way to defeat incumbent PPs while preventing Podemos (which might scare centrists) from taking power.

C's doesn't want to create the impression of being a sort of preferential ally for PP and Albert Rivera states that he's open to speak with PP, PSOE and even Podemos. The point is that C's is the only possible ally for PP. In the 4 regions where the orange party holds the balance of power there are very little chances for governments alternative to PP (cases of Murcia, Castilla y León and La Rioja), except in the region of Madrid (C's can support a PP minority government or abstain allowing a PSOE-Podemos administration). C's is not going to join any type of coalition, in any case they could give confidence and supply under certain conditions. PSOE and C's are not so far from each other and they may or may not cooperate in some places, including the unlock of the investiture of socialist premier Susana Díaz in Andalusia. However, PSOE needs Podemos in regions like Valencia, Castilla-La Mancha, the Balearic Islands, etc. C's is closer to PP on economic policies and issues like immigration and healthcare benefits. The bulk of C's support comes from PP and UPyD. C's voters are "reformist" rather than "anti-establishment" and a majority is placed on the centre and the centre-right side of the spectrum. According to an analysis of the CIS April survey that I translated in a previous post, the main risk for C's would be being associated unequivocally with the mainstream right, so Albert Rivera will be careful because he's not stupid. C's and PSOE share "liberal" stances on some social issues. Also, as a news posted before says, C's considers that PSOE has taken little but insufficient steps toward "regeneration" while Mariano Rajoy's PP is in total stasis. Rajoy is the main problem for PP right now.

Gosh the Balearics are a mess. What an earth is going on there?

Some of the parties are Balearic regionalists, others are island-specific. It's pretty weird. Plus Catalan nationalists coexist with Podemos outfit and IU.

I think the graph is wrong in what regards possible alliances in the Balearic Islands. The second option looks like unworkable: I can hardly see Podemos and PI (many of their members come from PP) together. Otherwise graphs are very informative. Summary of Balearic parties:

MÉS (Més per Mallorca): Majorcan coalition including PSM-Entesa* (Majorca nationalists), Iniciativa Verds (IU splinter associated with Equo) and ERC. It's placed on the left ranging from ecosocialism to Catalan separatism.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%A9s_per_Mallorca

MpM (Més per Menorca): Coalition similar to MÉS that operates in Menorca island.

*PSM-Entesa: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PSM-Nationalist_Agreement

PI (Proposta per les Illes): Centre-right regionalist party formed by the merger of smaller parties. It's ""socially and politically a big tent, balearista political formation with a tendency to centrism". It's stronger in Majorca island.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposta_per_les_Illes

GxF+PSIB: GxF is Gent per Formentera (People for Formentera), a left leaning party from that island not so different from the Més coalitions in Majorca and Menorca. PSIB is the name of the regional branch of PSOE.

MÉS got 17.1% in Majorca, MpM 17.5% in Menorca and Gent per Eivissa (GxE) 3.85% in Ibiza. PI got 8.8% in Majorca, 3.2% in Menorca and 5.7% in Ibiza.
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« Reply #252 on: May 25, 2015, 06:02:01 pm »

For now, C's course reminds me awfully of Modem 2007. It didn't go well...
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Velasco
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« Reply #253 on: May 25, 2015, 06:21:27 pm »
« Edited: May 26, 2015, 04:06:37 pm by Velasco »

We'll see how it ends. Given the course of PP, there was a huge gap on the centre-right of the spectrum and Albert Rivera was passing by Wink

Now that I remember, the Majorcan Union (Unió Mallorquina, a precedent of the PI) joined in 2007 a coalition government with PSOE and Balearic nationalists. The UM was led by an interesting woman called Maria Antònia Munar, who quitted politics in 2010 because she and her party were involved in several corruption scandals. Munar was sentenced to five years in prison. UM wrecked* in the 2011 elections after having being the party which held the balance of power in the region for a couple of decades, supporting alternatively PP and PSOE.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majorcan_Union

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Ant%C3%B2nia_Munar

*EDIT: Actually, UM was declared officially dead and its reminders conformed a new party called Convergence for the Isles (Convergència per les Illes, CxI), which ran in the 2011 and later merged with other regionalist outfits in Proposal for the Isles (Proposta per les Illes), in November 2012.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #254 on: May 25, 2015, 06:34:46 pm »
« Edited: May 25, 2015, 07:10:24 pm by Landslide Lyndon »

Is it fair to say that Ciudadanos are afraid of any partnership with PP also because of what happened with the Lib-Dems in the UK?
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Velasco
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« Reply #255 on: May 25, 2015, 06:51:32 pm »

Possibly they have noted what happened with the LibDems. The discredit of PP due to corruption scandals is another factor, in all likelihood much more important. In that regard, there's not an analogous situation in the UK.
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« Reply #256 on: May 26, 2015, 04:47:13 am »
« Edited: May 26, 2015, 04:51:57 am by Sigmund »

I note that Podemos now has entered every metropolitan regional council up for election, plus Canarias. Catalonia should follow in September. I guess only Ceuta and Melilla stand out in that regard. I don't know when Galicia is supposed to vote ? 2016 ?

Podemos is the only party present everywhere apart from PP and PSOE. Even C's failed to enter in a few places.

What are your thoughts on the incoming coalition talks that are going to take place in quite a number of cities and autonomies ? Can PSOE swallow propping up Podemos, or at least their various outfits, in the places where they won leadership of the left ?
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« Reply #257 on: May 26, 2015, 05:36:42 am »

Possibly they have noted what happened with the LibDems. The discredit of PP due to corruption scandals is another factor, in all likelihood much more important. In that regard, there's not an analogous situation in the UK.
Navarra Podemos alliance with Bildu and Geroa Bai can provide a narrative legitimizing Ciudadanos' alliance with PP.
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« Reply #258 on: May 26, 2015, 06:25:41 am »

The rise of anti-austerity parties will bring uncertainty not only to Spain, but also across Europe.  

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« Reply #259 on: May 26, 2015, 06:39:24 am »

The rise of anti-austerity parties will bring uncertainty not only to Spain, but also across Europe. 


Welcome to the forum, Captain Obvious ! You have been missed !

(Seriously though, welcome Smiley)
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« Reply #260 on: May 26, 2015, 06:50:03 am »

Another observation : some time ago, it was said that Córdoba was the largest European city ruled by a communist-led left-wing coalition. I don't really know who got that title when IU lost the city in 2011, maybe Riga, still in Western Europe I don't know. Could we say, if PSOE props up Ahora Madrid like we can expect them to, that Madrid now owns that title ? Even if Ahora Madrid is a broad coalition of parties and citizens, it's still impulsed by Podemos and IU types.
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Velasco
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« Reply #261 on: May 26, 2015, 06:55:31 am »

I note that Podemos now has entered every metropolitan regional council up for election, plus Canarias. Catalonia should follow in September. I guess only Ceuta and Melilla stand out in that regard. I don't know when Galicia is supposed to vote ? 2016 ?

Podemos is the only party present everywhere apart from PP and PSOE. Even C's failed to enter in a few places.

What are your thoughts on the incoming coalition talks that are going to take place in quite a number of cities and autonomies ? Can PSOE swallow propping up Podemos, or at least their various outfits, in the places where they won leadership of the left ?

Yes, Galicia and Basque country will hold elections next year. Podemos got into every regional parliament. C's failed to win seats in Castilla-La Mancha and the Canaries due to the shenanigans of their respective electoral systems. As for upcoming talks, both Podemos and C's are setting conditions to pact.

Podemos demands: 1) Zero tolerance with regard to corruption and 2) a 180 degree spin on cut policies. According to El País, Podemos makes ousting PP its priority in brokering deals:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/26/inenglish/1432632968_118593.html

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C's has set 10 conditions to pact. In the aftermath of the Sunday's election they warned PP: "no primaries, no support".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/25/inenglish/1432568221_353231.html

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As for Madrid, Manuela Carmena phoned PSOE candidate Antonio Miguel Carmona. The path toward an agreement between Ahora Madrid and PSOE seems clear and Carmena will be likely the next Mayoress of Madrid.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/25/inenglish/1432568422_087962.html

In Barcelona, pacts are more complicated due to the composition of the council and the lack of clear majorities. In any case, Ada Colau will govern the capital of Catalonia in minority. On election night, incumbent mayor Xavier Trias (CiU) conceded defeat and renounced to form alternative alliances. Colau already has a plan: new utility firm taxes and end to official cars:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/25/inenglish/1432563972_012218.html

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Navarra Podemos alliance with Bildu and Geroa Bai can provide a narrative legitimizing Ciudadanos' alliance with PP.

In any case, an alliance with Bildu will provide reasons to attack Podemos from Madrid media, PP and C's.
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Velasco
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« Reply #262 on: May 26, 2015, 07:00:09 am »

Another observation : some time ago, it was said that Córdoba was the largest European city ruled by a communist-led left-wing coalition. I don't really know who got that title when IU lost the city in 2011, maybe Riga, still in Western Europe I don't know. Could we say, if PSOE props up Ahora Madrid like we can expect them to, that Madrid now owns that title ? Even if Ahora Madrid is a broad coalition of parties and citizens, it's still impulsed by Podemos and IU types.

No, Ahora Madrid is left-wing, but it's not a communist-led coalition. Manuela Carmena is an indepedent backed by Podemos. She's fairly moderate in attitude and opinions and a free rider (personally, I adore her). There is people coming from the purple party, IU dissidents, Equo and several social movements. In any case it's a coalition of the "new left".
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Velasco
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« Reply #263 on: May 26, 2015, 07:03:54 am »

Madrid local election: results by district. Leading parties (right) and vote share by district for every party winning seats in the Madrid City Hall (left).

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« Reply #264 on: May 26, 2015, 09:13:01 am »

This is all very fun. I have a few questions though:

What are C's opinions towards non-separatist regionalists and nationalists (CC, PAR, PRC) or are they still opposed to further devolution?

why did Cascos resign in Asturias? Is FAC now dead without him?

Why is Navarre so hideously fragmented?
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Nanwe
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« Reply #265 on: May 26, 2015, 01:50:47 pm »

This is all very fun. I have a few questions though:

What are C's opinions towards non-separatist regionalists and nationalists (CC, PAR, PRC) or are they still opposed to further devolution?

I guess that since all these three parties are relatively centrist and 'pragmatic' (as in give power and money and I'll support you), I guess they'll apply the same conditions they told the PP to follow regarding internal accountability and some such. But they haven't made a fuss about it in general. I guess Velasco may have looked into the particular policies of C's in Cantabria, Aragón and the Canary Islands, but I cannot say much more.

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Most likely, as you can see from their very diminished electoral results.

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Well there's the Basque-speaking and the Spanish-speaking divide in the region and within each, there are right-wing and left-wing forces. So for instance in the Basque-speaking community, G-Bai, the PNV's brand of sorts in Navarra, they could be the right (even if they are vaguely centre-left) while Bildu is obviously the left. Then for the Spanish part, UPN used to be in a coalition with the PP, but it broke down so now both run against each other to obtain the right-wing vote of the Spanish speakers. And then there's the PSOE. The 'radical' left of Podemos and of IU tend to cross the linguistic border from what I understand.
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Velasco
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« Reply #266 on: May 26, 2015, 04:41:16 pm »

I guess Velasco may have looked into the particular policies of C's in Cantabria, Aragón and the Canary Islands, but I cannot say much more.

Not really. Given that C's failed to get into the Canarian Parliament by not surpassing the 6% regional threshold (they got 5.93%), they'll have little to say down here. C's seems more 'flexible' and 'pragmatic' than UPyD in what regards dealing with the various centre-right regionalist parties. Also, the orange party has recruited members of several local outfits in the effort to expand territorial implementation, including the candidate in the Andalusian election. I have researched too little on that. There were cases that I found more strange, like certain former Falangista who was running in the local list of certain small municipality in Madrid. Rivera says that he doesn't believe in the "red and blue" divide, but that's something more serious than recruiting local politicians or former PP, PSOE or UPyD members. I mean, that's the kind of things that can ruin the C's claim that they are a "progressive" force. 

In the news, Aguirre seeks pacts to keep Podemos out of the City Hall:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/26/inenglish/1432662540_821073.html

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Aguirre is even willing to 'sacrifice' herself offering the post of Mayor to the socialist candidate, but Antonio Miguel Carmona rejected her offer. I've just heard him and he said that in neither case he's going to follow the example of Agustín Rodríguez Sahagún (that case was already mentioned in this thread). The PSOE candidate said that he would favour "the more progressive option" and confirmed that he talked with Manuela Carmena, but they haven't decided anything. His platform, that is really a neat work (more than 200 proposals), will be his pillar for negotiations.

According to El País, PP veterans would be planning to make way for new faces in the party:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/26/inenglish/1432658688_365684.html

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Tomorrow I'll post the map of Barcelona.
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Velasco
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« Reply #267 on: May 27, 2015, 05:33:02 am »
« Edited: May 27, 2015, 05:35:52 am by Velasco »


Provisional results in Barcelona:

Barcelona en Comú-Entesa (BComú) 25.21% (+14,82%) 11 (+6)* councilors

Convergència i Unió (CiU) 22.72% (-6,01%) 10 (-4) councilors

Ciutadans (C’s) 11.05% (+9.11%)  5 (+5) councilors

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya– Moviment D’Esquerres (ERC–MES) 11.01% (+5,42%)  5 (+3) councilors

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) 9,63% (-12.51%) 4 (-7) councilors

Partit Popular (PP) 8.7% (-8,54%)  3 (-6) councilors

Candidatura D’Unitat Popular (CUP) 7,42% (+5.47%)  3 (+3) councilors

BComú wins 6 seats with regard to ICV-EUiA in 2011. In the previous election ERC ran in a list called Unitat per Barcelona allied with SI and Reagrupament, two small separatist parties. Moviment D'Esquerres (MES) is a PSC sovereignist split allied with ERC in this election.

*With regard to ICV-EUiA-Entesa in 2011. Entesa is a trademark registered by ICV and includes BComú and other "popular unity lists" where the Catalan ecosocialists ran. However, "popular unity lists" like Badalona en Comú (assembles Podemos, Procés Constituent and the CUP, but not ICV) are not included in the Entesa banner.

Results in Badalona:

PP 34.21% (+0.73%) 10 (-1) councilors

Badalona en Comú 17.51% (new) 5 (+5) councilors

PSC 14.09% (-12.96%) 4 (-5) councilors

ERC 10.98% (+7.28%) 3 (+3) councilors

CiU 7.94% (-4.61%) 2 (-2) councilors

ICV-EUiA-Entesa 6.68% (-2.22%) 2 (-1) councilors

Ciutadans 5.6% (+4.43%) 1 (+1) councilor

Results of the local elections in Catalonia:

CiU 21.49% (-5.63%), PSC 17.06% (-8.07%), ERC 16.39% (+7.41%), ENTESA* 11.78% (+3.35%), PP 7.54% (-5.14%), C's 7.43% (+6.21%), CUP 7.12% (+4.95%)

Despite the disastrous result in Barcelona, PSC was the second party in votes and retains with losses the provincial capitals of Tarragona and Lleida, as well many of the socialist strongholds in the Barcelona metropolitan region (l'Hospitalet, Cornellá, Santa Coloma, Terrassa). PP came first in Badalona, although Xavier García Albiol could be ousted by a coalition of opposition parties (in case they come to an agreement). CiU retains Girona.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #268 on: May 27, 2015, 06:07:58 am »

Mucho has tardado Wink


Anyway, I decided to take a look at the Balearic Islands' political scenario:

So, looking into the minor parties (let's ignore self-evident ones like PSOE, PP, C's or Podemos)

Més per Mallorca: Union of left-wing nationalist forces, associated to political Catalanism, including a former faction of IU in the Islands that split from the main party. It's a coalition of Partit Socialista de Mallorca, Entesa per Mallorca, Iniciativa Verds and Bloc per Felanitx.

Proposta per les Illes (PI)Sad Centre-right regionalist party, founded by former PP and UM (former regionalist centre-to-centre-right party, extremely corrupt) members.

MpM: Similar to Més per Mallorca, but for Minorca.

GxF: Similar to Més and MpM but for Formentera.
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« Reply #269 on: May 27, 2015, 06:48:05 am »

Huh,didn't think that Gracia would go to CiU.
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Velasco
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« Reply #270 on: May 27, 2015, 09:19:25 am »
« Edited: May 27, 2015, 03:34:26 pm by Velasco »

Gràcia is the most Catalanist of the Barcelona districts. Even though Vila de Gràcia is traditionally left-leaning (ICV used to poll strongly, ERC as of late), there are neighbourhoods that tend to favour CiU a bit more. In times Gràcia was a popular district, but nowadays its neighbourhoods are middle class (see income map). I suspect there has been certain gentrification in certain areas (should look into that). CiU beats BComú by a slight margin, ERC and the CUP get their best results in the city, while PSC and PP among their worst. Results in Gràcia district were as follows:

CiU 26.64% (-5.87%), BComú 23.89% (+10.83%), ERC 14.17% (+6.48%), CUP 11.67% (+7.91%), C's 7.57% (+6.19%), PSC 6.47% (-10.29%), PP 6.08% (-5.72%)

Traditionally the CiU and PSC vote in Barcelona followed reverse socioeconomic patterns. The richer the neighbourhood, the higher support for CiU and vice versa. Now things are much more complicated*, but still the best districts and neighbourhoods for CiU are the ones with the higher income (Sarrià-Sant Gervasi, Les Corts), while PSC does better in deprived areas which received immigration from other Spanish regions in past decades (Nou Barris, among others). The bad news for socialists is that they have lost the catalanista middle class and that their traditional base of support in the poorer city neighbourhoods switched to BComú and other parties to a lesser extent. Note that PP and C's patterns by district are very similar (higher support in the socio-economic extremes) and opposed to ERC and CUP patterns. BComú and PSC patterns are similar to each other, with the caveat that Ciutat Vella is the best district for BComú and Nou Barris the best for PSC.

Family income by neighbourhood in 2012 (100= Barcelona average):



*According to historian Joaquim Coll, election results show three dividing lines in Catalonia: territorial, linguistic and socioeconomic. On the one hand, there's a gap between the metropolitan/coastal Catalonia (more abstentionist and less supportive of nationalism) and the inland Catalonia (overwhelmingly nationalist). In the November 9 consultation on independence, inland counties (comarcas) turned out in greater numbers (48% of the roll) and voted massively for the purely separatist option ("yes-yes"), while in metropolitan/coastal counties turnout was only 27% and the "yes-yes" figures lower. As for the linguistic factor, it's correlated with sense of belonging. People who has Spanish as first language prevail in the metropolitan and coastal areas and use to identify themselves equally Spanish and Catalan: they are more loath to independence. People speaking Catalan as first language identify themselves as "more Catalan than Spanish" or "only Catalan": a majority of them support independence. Coll says that "language and origin are key to understand that we are confronted to an identity drive which tries to scale the wall of the plural senses of belonging, invoking a promise of social welfare with a leftist garment (...) by the moment with little success among the Catalans whom mainly speak Spanish and with origins in other parts of Spain" . On the socioeconomic factor, Coll talks about "the true alliance of classes behind the separatist drive in the context of the crisis that we are suffering". Remarks the contrast between two metropolitan municipalities nearby in space but far in socioeconomic composition: Santa Coloma and Sant Cugat del Vallès. Santa Coloma is a low income municipality north of Barcelona (pop 118,000) where PSC won a majority and both CiU and ERC failed to win councilors. Sant Cugat (pop 87,000) is amongst the richest Catalan municipalities. It's separated from Barcelona by the Tibidabo mountain. In Sant Cugat CiU won comfortably and the CUP came second, C's came third while PSC and PP got poor results.
 
"The Truncated Catalonia of Artur Mas" (Catalan)

http://cat.elpais.com/cat/2015/05/20/opinion/1432135472_321275.html

To make things even more complicated, it can be added to that triple divide the surge of BComú in Barcelona (and to a lesser extent the surge of similar lists in other municipalities). The list topped by Ada Colau has made significant inroads in the Barcelona's catalanista electorate, although its main base of support is in the lower income neighbourhoods. The separatist CUP has made inroads in some working-class metro Barcelona municipalities as well.

Results in Santa Coloma de Gramenet:

PSC 40.68% (14 councilors), Som Gramenet (Podemos, CUP) 18.52% (6), C's 11.5% (3), ICV-EUiA-Entesa 7.85% (2), PP 7.77% (2), ERC 4.76% (-), CiU 3.63% (-)

Results in Sant Cugat del Vallès:

CiU 36.97% (11 councilors), CUP 15.2% (4), C's 12.92% (3), ERC-MES 11.21% (3), ICV-EUiA-Entesa 6.61% (2), PSC 6.47% (1), PP 6.27% (1)

In the Sarrià-Sant Gervasi district (on the Barcelona's side of the Tibidabo) CiU topped the poll (41.49%), C's got its best result coming second (15.48%). In past elections PP used to come second behind CiU; this election came in third (12.39%). BComú got 10.5% and PSC only 4.4%.

In principle, there is an election in Catalonia scheduled on September 27. The defeat of Xavier Trias in Barcelona has been perceived as a setback in the "process" by premier Artur Mas.
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« Reply #271 on: May 27, 2015, 09:48:32 am »

Huh,didn't think that Gracia would go to CiU.

was just about to say...
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« Reply #272 on: May 27, 2015, 03:26:21 pm »

Yolanda Barcina, incumbent premier of Navarre: "The outcome of elections could see Spain resemble pre-Hitler Germany"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/27/inenglish/1432734863_029580.html

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"PP gives blessing to nationwide pacts to keep Podemos from taking power"

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Apparently, Mariano Rajoy is looking a substitute to Dolores de Cospedal in the post of secretary general of the Popular Party (the number two in the hierarchy behind chairman Rajoy). There's an interesting article in El Mundo about the woman: "Cospedal-Austen: Pride and Prejudice". Dolores de Cospedal adores Elizabeth Bennett, but her story will end worse than in Austen's novel. The failure in the Castilla-La Mancha regional election will dash her dreams of reaching higher heights in national politics (replacing Rajoy, for instance).

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/05/26/5563c67de2704e47128b4593.html
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CrabCake
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« Reply #273 on: May 27, 2015, 03:31:45 pm »

The PP, it has occurred to me watching these elections, must be the worst major centre-right party in Europe. Possibly worse than the GOP. How can they have the gall to compare anyone to dictators when their party was founded by a member of Franco's cabinet, their rhetoric remains unchanged from the 30's and their internal party democracy is about as flourishing as North Korea's?
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Velasco
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« Reply #274 on: May 27, 2015, 03:48:15 pm »

Well, Orban's Fidesz is arguably worse. PP seems not so far from Hungarians, though. To make things more nauseating and aside the reluctance to condemn the Franco's legacy, PP has been financed irregularly since 1990, the very year when Manuel Fraga rebuilt the former Alianza Popular into the present Popular Party. As for Barcina, she's not a PP member properly, although UPN and PP have parallel histories. You know what a terrible mess was the outcome of the election in Navarre. There's going to be an avalanche media noise if Podemos pacts with Bildu. The purple party and Manuela Carmena have been already compared with ETA, in spite of the fact that Carmena was once threatened by ETA as judge of the Supreme Court.
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