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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 288202 times)
Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #325 on: July 22, 2015, 02:44:25 pm »

Sorry, but the king cannot use the army. He's the supreme commander of the armed forces, but Spain is a constitutional monarchy and that title is merely symbolic: the Spanish government holds the executive power. On the other hand, sending the army would be the surest way to lose Catalonia. After the revolt in the XVII century there was a complicated conflict involving France and several battles, but Catalonia returned to Spain basically through negotiation... except the Roussillon and part of the Cerdagne, a patch of the Catalan Countries which was lost to the French neighbours.


Thanks for answer. I thought that at least in case of military king have anything to say.
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Velasco
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« Reply #326 on: July 23, 2015, 11:22:10 am »

King Felipe VI spoke before a group of newly appointed judges in Barcelona, stating that respect for the law is "unavoidable" in a democratic regime. Premier Artur Mas attended the event, but he didn't get the hint.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/23/inenglish/1437659569_325845.html

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Raül Romeva, the top candidate of the "Together for Yes" ticket, states the agreement reached between CDC, ERC and civic associations didn't make explicit that Artur Mas will be the head of a "national concentration" government that proclaims the independence of Catalonia. CDC officials denied that claim; according to deputy premier Neus Munté everything is spoken and Mas will continue exercising a leading role in the secessionist process at the head of the government. 

The Guardia Civil arrested three members of the Sumarrocas, an important business family linked to the Jordi Pujol clan, this morning in Barcelona. They are charged with the payment of illegal commissions to the mayor of Torredembarra (a coastal town in Tarragona province) of the Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC). The judge is investigating offences against the public administration, organised criminal group and money laundering. Joaquín Sumarroca, the head of the Sumarroca clan, was co-founder of the CDC together with Jordi Pujol. 
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Mynheer Peeperkorn
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« Reply #327 on: July 23, 2015, 11:25:13 pm »

PODEMOS collapsing according to this poll.

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http://www.abc.es/espana/20150719/abci-ciudadanos-diputados-201507181850.html
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rob in cal
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« Reply #328 on: July 24, 2015, 12:54:27 am »

Any ideas on what type of government would take over on this kind of result (the July poll).
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Diouf
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« Reply #329 on: July 24, 2015, 05:07:27 am »

It seems like the polls still disagree about the faith of Podemos. TNS-Demoscopia's two July polls have had them at 19.1 and 18.6%, whereas this GAD3 poll has them on 15.0% and Celeste-Tel has them on 13.1%. In addition, it must be quite hard to translate the percentages into votes. A 1 or 2 point percentage difference could potentially make a whole lot of difference in relation to the seats since seats are not proportional on the national level.
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« Reply #330 on: July 24, 2015, 05:51:19 am »

Wait, are Convergence and Union still running in the general?
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politicus
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« Reply #331 on: July 24, 2015, 06:24:30 am »

Wait, are Convergence and Union still running in the general?

Why wouldn't they? SNP runs for the Commons.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #332 on: July 24, 2015, 07:00:06 am »

Wait, are Convergence and Union still running in the general?

Why wouldn't they? SNP runs for the Commons.

In Catalonia, CiU have split into their component parts over the issue of Catalan Independence. The 'C' part is running on the joint nationalist issue in the election this September while the 'U' part is running on its own.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #333 on: July 24, 2015, 08:18:48 am »

Any ideas on what type of government would take over on this kind of result (the July poll).

PP+Cs+CUP+CC+others?
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Velasco
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« Reply #334 on: July 24, 2015, 10:48:38 am »

It seems like the polls still disagree about the faith of Podemos. TNS-Demoscopia's two July polls have had them at 19.1 and 18.6%, whereas this GAD3 poll has them on 15.0% and Celeste-Tel has them on 13.1%. In addition, it must be quite hard to translate the percentages into votes. A 1 or 2 point percentage difference could potentially make a whole lot of difference in relation to the seats since seats are not proportional on the national level.

It's important to watch at the average polling. GAD3 and Celeste-Tel are usually underestimating Podemos, whereas Metroscopia and others tend to overestimate new parties like C's. On average Podemos is approx. at 18%. Seat allocation is only approximate because, as you say, it's hard to translate percentages into seats. Spain has 52 constituencies, corresponding to the provinces and the two autonomous cities. Most of provinces elect few seats and allocation is not proportional to vote share. On the one hand, the big parties (traditionally PP and PSOE) benefit from the system. On the other hand, peripheral nationalists and regionalist parties are relatively best represented than third national forces, because the support of the first is concentrated in a few provinces.
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« Reply #335 on: July 24, 2015, 12:14:42 pm »

A unilateral Catatalan withdrawal would probably be a boon (electorally) to the PP, IMO.
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Velasco
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« Reply #336 on: July 24, 2015, 12:46:28 pm »

I don't know. A good performance in Catalonia might boost Podemos and C's as well. It's hard to predict. By the way, Catalunya Sí es Pot has already a candidate. No time to go into details now. On the other hand, PP leader in Catalonia Alicia Sánchez-Camacho is about to leave and the Rajoy's party lacks a candidate right now. Some rumours point to former mayor of Badalona, the controversial Xavier García Albiol. I have a very  low opinion of xenophobes, so I hope PP's Supreme Head picks another candidate.
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Velasco
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« Reply #337 on: July 25, 2015, 10:58:16 am »

Electograph "poll of polls" as of July 20:


http://www.electograph.com/p/electograph-poll-of-polls.html

Metroscopia poll released today by El País

PSOE 23.5%, PP 23.1%, Podemos 18.1%, C's 16%, IU 5.6%
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Velasco
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« Reply #338 on: July 25, 2015, 11:03:15 am »

Strange war on royal portraits in the Barcelona City Hall.

Chapter 1: Barcelona City Council removes bust of King Juan Carlos from chamber

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/24/inenglish/1437722628_871968.html

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Chapter 2: PP hangs King Felipe’s portrait in Barcelona City Council chamber

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/24/inenglish/1437733354_176896.html

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Mynheer Peeperkorn
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« Reply #339 on: July 25, 2015, 08:50:13 pm »



PSOE 23.5%, PP 23.1%, Podemos 18.1%, C's 16%, IU 5.6%

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Nanwe
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« Reply #340 on: July 26, 2015, 04:17:53 am »

Ciudadanos fulmina en dos meses la ley electoral murciana que PP y PSOE no cambiaron en 28 años

So, C's, alongside with Podemos and the PSOE have forced the PP in Murcia to join in reforming the previous 1987 electoral law, replacing the 5 constituencies with a 5% threshold with a single one with a 3% one, hence ensuring greater representativeness. Interesting how easy it was to do, although it is a pity it's still closed list, but something is something. Hopefully other regions will follow suit.
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Velasco
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« Reply #341 on: July 26, 2015, 08:47:12 am »

La Vangardia releases a practical guide of parties, platforms, coalitions and entities currently existing in Catalonia. It's useful to navigate the Catalan labyrinth:

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20150726/54434042593/diccionario-entender-nuevo-mapa-politico-catalan-27s.html

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Velasco
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« Reply #342 on: July 27, 2015, 11:38:06 am »

Most Catalans see a clash with Madrid inevitable, says Metroscopia:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/27/inenglish/1437987674_716070.html

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Artur Mas presented today his model of a tax agency for an independent Catalonia.

PSC leader and candidate Miquel Iceta states there won't be a suspension of the Catalan autonomy; in case the Parliament of Catalonia votes UDI, the Constitutional Court would set the declaration aside and that is all. Iceta is aware that Catalan socialists are going to perform badly. The PSC has faced several splits in its sovereignist wing which have approached ERC, a party that aspires to take the space of Catalanist socialdemocracy. Hence, PSC aspires to be "indispensable" to conform a leftist government. Even that sounds unrealistic in the present context. On her part, PP leader Alicia Sánchez-Camacho still doesn't make clear if she's going to repeat as candidate. Polls predict a downfall for the conservative party, with many voters switching to C's. The orange party runs with Inés Arrimadas as candidate; she's the Albert Rivera's lieutenant in the parliamentary group. The different forces in Catalunya Sí que és Pot (CSP) agreed to nominate Lluis Rabell as their candidate, after having failed to convince Arcadi Oliveres (who is economist and head of the Procés Constituent political movement). Lluis Rabell has been the head of the federation of neighbourhood associations in the city of Barcelona and supported actively the candidacy of Ada Colau in the local elections. An article in El País describes him as an "educated activist" born in El Raval, he was formerly in EUiA (the Catalan branch of IU), has a "trotskyst background", a "classical political culture" and is a long time activist. Rabell, who is translator and interpreter, has a "consensual profile, able to unblock tense and bitter meetings", says the article. The CSP candidate states that he's not independentist, but voted "yes-yes" in the proxy referendum held in November because he's angry at the Spanish government, which has treated Catalonia very badly in his opinion. Today in El Periódico, Lluis Rabell says that next election will be a choice between "amnesia" and "cleaning up", I guess in allusion to the multiple corruption scandals around Artur Mas' CDC and other parties. On the other hand, Procés Constituent rejected in an assembly joining the CSP coalition (comprised by Podemos and ICV-EUiA). As a result, economist Vicenç Navarro (who co-authored an economic draft for Podemos) left the movement, which seemed to be divided between the advocates of joining the CSP and a secessionist wing closer to the CUP. Finally, UDC candidate Ramon Espadaler promises to lead a "revolution of common sense" (seny in Catalan language), getting away from the secessionism of Artur Mas and the inmobilism of Mariano Rajoy. "Our prudence won't make us traitors and our patriotism won't make us imprudent", he said.
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Velasco
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« Reply #343 on: July 27, 2015, 04:29:26 pm »

General election poll released today.

TNS Demoscopia / Antena 3

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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #344 on: July 27, 2015, 04:57:24 pm »

It may be farfetched conclusion but I think that there is a place for multi-regional party which will be to the right from PP and serve as an eventual ally (Portuguese variant) for them.
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politicus
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« Reply #345 on: July 27, 2015, 05:02:04 pm »
« Edited: July 27, 2015, 05:06:05 pm by politicus »

It may be farfetched conclusion but I think that there is a place for multi-regional party which will be to the right from PP and serve as an eventual ally (Portuguese variant) for them.

The right wing of PP is very right wing. Hard to see any space out there - unless you are thinking of a xenophobic populist party with anti-neoliberal/pseudo-leftist economic policies. Not sure how that combo would play in Spain, but it might work. Still, such a party would not be an easy ally for PP.

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politicus
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« Reply #346 on: July 27, 2015, 05:05:38 pm »

Regarding the Portuguese comparison CDS-PP is a lot more moderate than the right wing of Spanish PP.
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Velasco
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« Reply #347 on: July 27, 2015, 06:02:57 pm »
« Edited: July 28, 2015, 12:12:03 pm by Velasco »

It may be farfetched conclusion but I think that there is a place for multi-regional party which will be to the right from PP and serve as an eventual ally (Portuguese variant) for them.

The right wing of PP is very right wing. Hard to see any space out there - unless you are thinking of a xenophobic populist party with anti-neoliberal/pseudo-leftist economic policies. Not sure how that combo would play in Spain, but it might work. Still, such a party would not be an easy ally for PP.

PP actually had a split in its right wing called Vox Party, led by Santiago Abascal and former MEP Alejo Vidal Quadras. The latter failed to win a seat in the EP elections by a few thousand votes. Since then, Vox has failed miserably in subsequent local and regional elections. Vox chairman Santiago Abascal ran as top candidate for the Madrid Regional Assembly: the list got 1%. Ergo, there's no life outside PP for a hardcore right-winger. Also, Spanish far-right parties (Falange, Democracia Nacional, España 2000, etc) have been always a joke. Only Plataforma per Catalunya (PxC) had some success in the 2011 local elections, but now the support for the bunch founded by Josep Anglada has vanished. PxC is virtually disappeared in Catalonia and Anglada himself was expelled from the party due to "deficient" management. In fact, PxC was like his personal enterprise: Anglada managed local branches like franchises . Anglada is a former member of Fuerza Nueva with links to Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders. There's no room for a xenophobic far-right populist party in Spain, basically because xenophobic feelings are not widespread in the country. In other words, most of Spaniards don't see immigrants as the main source of troubles and don't blame them for the economic situation. Of course Spain is not free of xenophobia, but it's a localised phenomenon. We have examples of xenophobic mayors like Xavier García Albiol (PP), who governed Badalona between 2011 and 2015. The former PP mayor of Vitoria made some controversial statements bordering that feeling; as well in past local elections PP distributed some xenophobic leaflets in Barcelona. On the other hand, the anti-neoliberal discourse is monopolised by Podemos and IU, as well by other left-wing regional parties (CUP, Bildu, AGE in Galicia, etc) that are miles away from xenophobia.

The only possible ally for PP is actually C's, a party that is more 'liberal' and centrist than PP. It's already posted that C's has controversial stances (at least in this country) on the issue of granting healthcare benefits to irregular immigrants. They say it's unsustainable; PP took back medical cards for irregulars but later allowed them to receive emergency healthcare, making the orange party look radical. However, there's a difference between that and the rhetoric of Marine Le Pen. Both C's and the Vox Party are pro-EU.  
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Velasco
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« Reply #348 on: July 28, 2015, 12:46:33 pm »

Alicia Sánchez-Camacho announced this morning thatXavier García Albiol has been nominated PP candidate in Catalonia. "García Albiol has proved his worth as Mayor of Badalona. He's a good person", said Sánchez-Camacho. As for the candidate, García Albiol said he represents "a project beyond ideologies" and asked for the cooperation of all Catalans because "we have a lot at stake on September 27".

Xavier García Albiol is aged 47 and is two meters high. Formerly he played in Juventut, a club of the Spanish basketball league located in Badalona. He became known in Spanish politics because of the harsh policies against immigrants he implemented as mayor. He has made very harsh statements against two communities in particular: Romanian Gypsies and Pakistani. According to him the Roma are "a plague that came here to commit crimes", while the Pakistani are characterised by their habit of eating bad meat. In this year's local campaign he promised "cleaning" Badalona, a town in metropolitan Barcelona populated by more than 200k people. Badalona has been historically a left-wing stronghold (PSUC in 1979, PSC between 1983 and 2011). García Albiol came first in the 2015 elections, but he was ousted from mayoralty by a pact between leftist parties. He was replaced by Dolors Sabater (Badalona en Comú), a teacher and social activist who was member of Òminium Cultural, an independentist association that promotes Catalan language and whose chairman Muriel Casals runs in the Together for Yes ticket.    
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Velasco
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« Reply #349 on: July 28, 2015, 03:24:00 pm »

Sigma Dos / Tele Cinco

PP 28.8%, PSOE 24.2%, Podemos 20.3%, C's 11.1%, IU 4.2%

http://www.telecinco.es/informativos/nacional/Encuesta-Mediaset_Espana-Sigma_Dos-intencion_voto_julio_0_2026500444.html

The pollster is still asking for CiU, but don't take that into account. Convergence and Union is dead and buried.
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