Spanish elections and politics

[aross]

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Basically, the CUP agrees to support Puigdemont, to assume that all the problems of the last 3 months are their fault, for 2 of their MPs to join JxS and to purge their parliamentary group of anti-Mas deputies (so at least 4 or 5 out of 10) in exchange for Mas' resignation. Oh! And to never ever not support the current Government.

All meanwhile Mas might make a return after a few months, since he's going to focus on 'rebuilding' Convergencia.

Thanks!
That's... mental, surely? Points 4 and 5 read like something from a Maoist self-criticism session.
Any indication as to whether the anti-Mas MPs are even willing to resign? Or do CUP use the tried and tested "undated letters of resignation" technique?

Oh yeah, and if the CUP are meant to become JxSí's satellite party anyway, why even bother with the two defectors?

[Zinneke]

But if what you said is true, and there is no incentive for the nationalist parties to go into new elections, then it makes more sense, particularly as the CUP are bordering on implosion.

[Nanwe]

But if what you said is true, and there is no incentive for the nationalist parties to go into new elections, then it makes more sense, particularly as the CUP are bordering on implosion.

Oh yes, there was absolutely no incentive. It does make sense, for JxS, for such a militantly anti-everything party as the CUP (they make Podemos look like a bunch of moderate centrists) that they have agreed to put electoral calculation over ideology (a first for them!) and to agree to become a satellite of the party of the Catalan bourgeoisie that CDC is, is inconceivable.

[Zanas]

Humans are very afraid of losing whatever small dosis of importance they gain.

This is like Syriza's level of betrayal.

I'm quickly becoming an anarchist again.

[aross]

So Puigdemont has been invested, with 8 yes votes and 2 abstentions from CUP, which seems low. Any news about the resistance to the deal from within CUP?

Oh, and apparently there has been some controversy about a speech Puigdemont gave in 2013 where he pledged to "expel the invaders from Catalonia, as they were in Belgium (? - I can only guess this is some kind of reference to Flanders)

[tpfkaw]

Oh, and apparently there has been some controversy about a speech Puigdemont gave in 2013 where he pledged to "expel the invaders from Catalonia, as they were in Belgium (? - I can only guess this is some kind of reference to Flanders)

I'm guessing he meant to refer to the Netherlands.

[Zinneke]

Oh, and apparently there has been some controversy about a speech Puigdemont gave in 2013 where he pledged to "expel the invaders from Catalonia, as they were in Belgium (? - I can only guess this is some kind of reference to Flanders)

I'm guessing he meant to refer to the Netherlands.

He could also be referring the expulsion of francophones from Leuven.

[Nanwe]

Oh, and apparently there has been some controversy about a speech Puigdemont gave in 2013 where he pledged to "expel the invaders from Catalonia, as they were in Belgium (? - I can only guess this is some kind of reference to Flanders)

I'm guessing he meant to refer to the Netherlands.

He could also be referring the expulsion of francophones from Leuven.

Unlikely, he quoted a poet who died in 1939, more likely he's referring to the Belgian revolution of 1830, imho.

[Nanwe]

Anyhow, I've been working on an electoral model for Spain, based on my own ideas (smaller/larger constituencies, no rural over-representation, compensatory seats on top, unblocked lists).




PP (centre-right): 120 (28.72)
PSOE (centre-left): 92 (22.01)
Podemos (left-wing): 87 (20.47)
Ciudadanos (centre): 58 (13.93)
Unidad Popular (far-left): 15 (3.67)
Democràcia i Llibertat (Catalan centre-right): 10 (2.25)
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (Catalan centre-left): 9 (2.39)
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea-Partido Nacionalista Vasco (Basque centre): 6 (1.20)
EH Bildu (Basque left-wing). 2 (0.87)
Coalición Canaria (Canary Islands regionalists): 1 (0.33)

Most likely result is PSOE+Podemos+IU coalition with external support in the investiture from the PNV (and perhaps CC), since they add up to 194 seats against (and let's say C's supports the PP in this scenario), the sum o PP and C's which is 178.

[Velasco]

The opening session of the new parliament is taking place this morning.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/13/inenglish/1452673886_901645.html

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Live coverage in Spanish

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/13/media/1452667694_891503.html?id_externo_rsoc=TW_CM

[Zanas]

Why are they not "allowed" to create several different groups for the several different initiatives they ran with, if they have the numbers ? Which authority is denying them this right ?

[Nanwe]

Why are they not "allowed" to create several different groups for the several different initiatives they ran with, if they have the numbers ? Which authority is denying them this right ?

Well it's not a right. And the rulebook of the Congress.

There's a considerable degree of unfairness about it, becaue by splitting up, Podemos would receive as much public money as the PP (which has double the amount of deputies) and of speaking times. Furthermore, there's no precedent for it, as the PSOE had a similar deal with the PSC in Catalonia and the PSC still sat in the PSOE group.

[Nanwe]

So Puigdemont just ruled out an UDI because the pro-independence forces only got 48% of the votes in September, yet the procés goes on. Apparently because Catalans ought to decide once the Parlament has drafted a constitution or something lol. I really don't get them.

[Zanas]

So Puigdemont just ruled out an UDI because the pro-independence forces only got 48% of the votes in September, yet the procés goes on. Apparently because Catalans ought to decide once the Parlament has drafted a constitution or something lol. I really don't get them.

I think the independence movement's momentum is ruined and it will only go downhill from now on for them.

[ag]

So Puigdemont just ruled out an UDI because the pro-independence forces only got 48% of the votes in September, yet the procés goes on. Apparently because Catalans ought to decide once the Parlament has drafted a constitution or something lol. I really don't get them.

I think the independence movement's momentum is ruined and it will only go downhill from now on for them.

I doubt. It is one of those things that has been around for a long while, and while it may go up and down, it will remain strong.

[Velasco]

New year's polls

Metroscopia / El País (Jan 17)
PP 29%, Podemos 22.5%, PSOE 21.1%, C's 16.6%, IU-UP 3.2%, Others 7.6%

Invymark / La Sexta (Jan 16)
PP 30.8%, Podemos 21.6%, PSOE 20.8%, C's 12.6%, IU-UP 3.5%, Others 10.7%

So Puigdemont just ruled out an UDI because the pro-independence forces only got 48% of the votes in September, yet the procés goes on. Apparently because Catalans ought to decide once the Parlament has drafted a constitution or something lol. I really don't get them.

It's not as difficult as it sounds. Puigdemont is aware that it's hard to get enough popular support for the UDI, but hopes that a majority passes a new constitution that would give them enough legitimacy to proclaim independence.   

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/15/inenglish/1452846497_004745.html

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[Nanwe]

From Invymark:

Would you be in favour or against of permitting a referendum about Catalan independence?

In favour: 38.8%
Against: 57.6%
Doesn't know: 3.6%

Only Catalonia:

In favour: 68.2%
Against: 27.1%
Doesn't know: 4.7%

Party breakdown:

PP: 8.8% for, 90.6% against
PSOE: 34.1% for, 63.5% against
C's: 13.2% for, 83.7% against
Podemos: 78.5% for, 18% against

Would you be for or against a constitutional reform about changing the Spanish territorial model?

For: 58.4%
Against: 35.3%
Doesn't know: 6.3%

Polling in Galicia and Euskadi:

Galicia:

PPdG: 37% (32, -9)
En Marea: 25% (20, +11)
PSdG: 21% (17, -1)
C's: 9% (6, +6)

Euskadi:

EAJ-PNV: 30% (22-23, -4,5)
Podemos: 25% (21-22, +21,22)
EH Bildu: 19% (13-14, -7,8)
PSE-EE: 12.8% (10, -6)
PP: 8.3% (6, -4)
IU-LV: 3% (0-1, =, +1)

[Nanwe]

Celeste-Tel (Jan 19)

PP 30.2% (128-130), Podemos 22.1% (68-73), PSOE 21.9% (87-90), C's 12.6% (33-35), IU-UP 3.3% (2), Others 10% (24-26)

Methodology:

1100 phone interviews, during the first 10 days of 2016.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So have the parties reached a deal about general government yet? I haven't been following lately

[Vosem]

So have the parties reached a deal about general government yet? I haven't been following lately

PP, PSOE, and Ciudadanos did reach a deal to elect a Speaker (Patxi Lopez, from the PSOE) so that the new Parliament can convene, but I don't believe they've agreed to anything else so far.

[Nanwe]

So have the parties reached a deal about general government yet? I haven't been following lately

No. This week, the King has convoked the parties (note: the parties, not the groups) so that they may give him their opinion on the situation and on whom to appoint as formateur. There is nod deadline for when he can propose one, but it is likely he will held a second round of talks next week  or so before appointing the first formateur.

Spain has no tradition in this regard, since traditionally this role of the King was symbolic, now it is not so we'll see what he proposes. Since there are no limits to whom he could appoint, the King may propose anyone, independent of partisan, MP, senator or neither.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lol, imagine if Juan Carlos was still on the throne now

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Eh, imagine if Sixtus Henry would be on the throne. I do not understand why Spanish people do not support Carlism : (( You even have that funny Maoist-Carlist party, for all those lefties who votes on PSOE or Podemos.

[Velasco]

Podemos and PSOE overcome key differences, says El País

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/20/inenglish/1453278643_742610.html

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The Compromís-Podemos coalition won 9 seats in the general election (4 Compromís, 4 Podemos and 1 independent).

By the moment the Board of Congress has approved 7 parliamentary groups in the Lower House, rejecting the request of Compromís and a proposal for a ERC-Bildu-IU 'instrumental group' :

PP: 119 seats*

PSOE: 89 seats**

Podemos-En Comú Podem-En Marea: 65 seats

Ciudadanos: 40 seats

Democràcia i Llibertat: 8 seats

Basque Nationalist Party: 6 seats

Non ascribed: ERC 9 (?), Compromís 4, IU-UP 2, EH Bildu 2, UPN 2, CC 1, NC 1, Foro 1 and Gómez de la Serna (ex-PP)

* UPN and Foro MPs. as well Pedro Gómez de la Serna (MP for Segovia involved in a corruption scandal) will join the Mixed Group.
** The New Canaries MP elected in Las Palmas in coalition with PSOE will join the Mixed Group.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

ERC didn't get a group?