Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

Podemos members reject backing Socialist-led govt in Spain.  It was 88.23% opposed to such a government. 

That's not entirely correct. Podemos membership rejected to join the pact between PSOE and C's (88,23% against), but supported a left-wing coalition government led by socialists and including PSOE, Podemos, IU and Compromís (91.7% in favour). Anyway, that vote was as meaningless as the vote held among PSOE membership on the deal between Pedro Sánchez and Albert Rivera (around 80% supported the PSOE-C's deal). More than presenting different alternatives to their grassroots, both consultations were plebiscites on Pablo Iglesias and Pedro Sánchez leaderships in Podemos and PSOE.

So unless PP-PSOE-C can form a government soon we are looking at elections in the Summer.

The Grand Coalition is very unlikely now, but maybe not after a new election. Conservatives hope to place first again and force socialists to be 'responsible' and accept such deal. They would like that Pedro Sánchez was replaced in PSOE leadership by someone more compliant. However new scandals have emerged in PP, making difficult that PSOE and C's agree a coalition government led by conservatives as long as Mariano Rajoy doesn't resign (by the moment, the man holds on tight to leadership).

Unless there is a last minute move, Spain is heading towards elections on June 26.

New scandals in PP.

On Friday, Industry Minister José Manuel Soria resigned over Panama Papers

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/04/15/inenglish/1460704796_121697.html

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Yesterday, the PP Mayor of Granada resigned over his alleged involvement in an urban planning corruption development.

[Velasco]

Can someone explain to me why Si que es pot bombed in the regional elections but has now propelled themselves to second in the polls?

The bad result of Catalunya Sí que es Pot in regional elections is attributable to a host of factors. Among these we could mention an uncharismatic candidate and errors made in the campaign. Above all the leftist alliance was damaged by the polarized nature of the last Catalan election, which was fought on the separatist-unionist divide. On the one hand, some of its potential voters might have picked separatist options such as JxSí or the CUP as a means to protest against the Madrid government. On the other hand, the success of C's was in good part due to the support obtained by the center-right unionist party in metropolitan Barcelona, among voters sociologically leftist but not supportive of the separatist agenda.

The involvement of the charismatic Mayoress of Barcelona Ada Colau, who didn't support Sí que es Pot in the regional election,  was decisive for the success of En Comú Podem in the general election. The conduction of the campaign was left in the hands of the Colau's group (Barcelona en Comú). Although the ECP platform included the issue of a referendum in Catalonia, the campaign was focused on the social agenda and the alliance was very successful in the former PSC strongholds in metropolitan Barcelona.   

[Velasco]

"King Felipe facing final fruitless talks with Spain’s political leaders"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/04/25/inenglish/1461569481_908275.html

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It is likely that Podemos and IU reach a deal in order to run together in the upcoming election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well congrats Podemos, you blew probably your only chance of having any meaningful impact.

[Velasco]

Well congrats Podemos, you blew probably your only chance of having any meaningful impact.

There is a shared responsibility in this state of affairs. It would have been desirable some minimum agreement between PSOE, Podemos and C's in order to send corrupt PP to opposition. I think it would have been healthy for our political system and institutions. However, it was impossible. Without going into great depth in this boring affair and in my opinion, among the causes of the negotiations' failure are the Pablo Iglesias' ambitions and the boycott placed on Podemos by certain factions in PSOE ( the 'Old Senate' and territorial leaders) and Ciudadanos, whose explicit aim was to prevent the presence of the purple party in the government.

I'm afraid that the most likely result will be that PP and C's might win a majority in the upcoming election, mostly because abstentionism is expected to be higher and will affect the leftist electorate to a greater extent. Possibly the alliance between Podemos and IU will surpass PSOE in raw votes, but maybe not in parliamentary seats.

[Zanas]

Well congrats Podemos, you blew probably your only chance of having any meaningful impact.

I don't see how helping the corpse of a corrupt "socialist" party living on would be "having a meaningful impact", but maybe that's just me. SD parties in Europe need to DIAF.

[aross]

What has changed to make a Podemos-IU alliance possible/likely, and what potential problems remain?

[RogueBeaver]

Cortes is dissolved.

[ag]

¡!

[Velasco]

Cortes is dissolved.

What?

That has not happened yet. The decree of dissolution will be issued on May 3.

There was a last and fruitless effort.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/26/spain-faces-new-elections-june-parties-fail-to-form-government

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The following paragraph is somewhat inaccurate

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The proposals submitted by Compromís would have allowed a coalition government between PSOE, Podemos, IU and the Valencian party. The possibility of a socialist minority government with the addition of independents and the motion of confidence were included in the PSOE's counteroffer. Once PSOE dismissed the leftist coalition, Compromís leader Mónica Oltra told the press that PSOE's claim to govern alone with only 90 seats in the Congress was ridiculous. Immediately the prospect of a deal was gave up for dead; later Pablo Iglesias' statements confirmed that there was no possibility of a last-minute deal. Apparently Compromís submitted this proposal without warning Podemos, causing some upset in the purple party leadership.

Ciudadanos was asked in the Compromís document to abstain in the eventuality of an investiture vote. Albert Rivera immediately despised the offer.

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[Velasco]

What has changed to make a Podemos-IU alliance possible/likely, and what potential problems remain?

After the inconclusive December elections and the stagnation of the following months, the political situation has changed somewhat. The upcoming election is seen as a second round of that held on December 20. Then Podemos and allies placed third, trailing PSOE by only 300 thousand votes (1.3%). IU got 900 thousand votes nationwide, mostly wasted due to the province-based electoral system. In case Podemos and IU had been allied and got the same result they obtained separately, the correlation of forces in the Congress would have changed somewhat. According to the estimation linked below, the result would have been (in brackets, actual results): PP 114 (123), PSOE 89 (90), Podemos-IU 85 (71), C's 36 (40), Others 26 (25).

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/GRAFICO-Congreso-Podemos-confluencias-IU_0_464754323.html

Such projections must be taken with the due reserve. It's uncertain that such an alliance could have obtained all the vote Podemos and IU got separately, since part of the Podemos voters might not like an alliance with the IU and vice versa. In any case, results would have placed the left closer to get a majority in Congress.

Polls suggest that the failed process of negotiations has damaged Podemos somewhat (estimations are in the range of 15% to 20%), while IU is increasing support (around 5%, with some polls in the 7% to 8% range).

Despite Podemos and IU have programmatic affinities, the obstacles that prevented an alliance remain. According to El Diario, they are:

1) Coalition at national or regional level.

Prior to the December election, IU demanded a coalition agreement nationwide. Podemos rejected the offer, admitting only "territorial agreements". Finally, Podemos reached alliances with other parties at regional level in Catalonia, Galicia and Valencia. Alliances in Catalonia and Galicia included the IU regional branches.

Recently IU de facto leader Alberto Garzón has reaffirmed his statements: the agreement will be at national level or will not be. This time the Podemos leadership seems more ready to accept. Voices in favour of negotiate region by region are less numerous, being their main supporter Podemos second in command Íñigo Errejón. It's possible that both organizations will agree an intermediate solution: coalition agreement at national level, but "territorializing" campaign issues (names, logos, coalition partners) in the different regions.

2) Electoral lists.

The issue here is how many IU candidates are placed in positions where they are likely to be elected, as well where to place Alberto Garzón. Possibly the IU's top candidate will demand a place in the joint list for Madrid. In previous talks Podemos offered Garzón to run on top in his home province of Málaga. Given that Pablo Iglesias is going to top the Madrid list (it will be a "zippered "one, alternating men and women), Garzón would run in third place and Errejón would be placed in a lower position.

3) Reciprocal recognition and respect.

The relationship between Podemos and IU has been complicated. Podemos emerged on the eve of the 2014 EU elections. Iglesias et alii proposed initially to be accepted in IU as an internal political movement and they were rejected. The subsequent Podemos' success arose fear and susceptibility in the IU's leadership. In a certain moment, Pablo Iglesias told the IU leaders to "cook themselves in their red stars", while Alberto Garzón said that Podemos was "the new UCD". However, Garzón has a reasonably fluid relationship with Pablo Iglesias and others in Podemos leadership. That's not the case with veteran IU leaders like Cayo Lara and Gaspar Llamazares, the latter staunchly opposed to an agreement with Podemos and closer to PSOE.

IU fears to be drowned by the Podemos' tsunami and wants to vindicate its track record, cadres and territorial implementation. On the other hand, a good proportion of the Podemos leadership comes from IU and environs. Major political figures in Podemos are aware that IU cadres are well trained in partisan struggle, while their own cadres have little experience in such affairs.

A key obstacle in the alliance between Podemos and IU might be the inclusion of the IU's name in the ballots. Many in Podemos are very reluctant to do so, arguing that the IU brand limits the possibility of reaching a broader portion of the electorate (the so-called "transversality", key in the Podemos' discourse). An intermediate solution could be calling the coalition "Podemos En Común", "Podemos-Unidad Popular" or something in the like.

4) Internal resistance.

As said before, in the IU the main opposition comes from Gaspar Llamazares. Other veterans like Cayo Lara are reluctant. To the contrary, old leader Julio Anguita has publicly stated his support for the alliance and Alberto Garzón (openly in favour too) seems to be backed by a large majority of the organization.

In Podemos the main opposition comes from those who warn that an alliance with IU can "laminate" the elements that make Podemos distinctive: "new politics" vs "old politics", cross-party appeal ("transversality"), etcetera. Mainly these people is linked with Errejón, although the second in command is not openly opposed to the alliance. To quote Errejón, "abacus counts hardly ever work" and "well made agreements multiply" but botched ones "rest or divide".

Major political figures in Podemos have stated open support including Pablo Iglesias, Juan Carlos Monedero, Ada Colau and Mónica Oltra.

[aross]

Thanks for a very informative and clearly high effort answer!
I had heard about the name issue and indeed that it was what stopped an alliance for the last elections; was that really all there was or would it be fair to say that it was at least partly an excuse to hide the bigger divides between the parties? Oh, and is my impression that this cleavage within IU is based on PCE vs the "alternative" left /working-class vs middle-class support correct?

Why is Errejón opposed or at least critical when he has otherwise been the one most in favour of closer relations with the rest of the left?

[Velasco]

I had heard about the name issue and indeed that it was what stopped an alliance for the last elections; was that really all there was or would it be fair to say that it was at least partly an excuse to hide the bigger divides between the parties? Oh, and is my impression that this cleavage within IU is based on PCE vs the "alternative" left /working-class vs middle-class support correct?

I'd say the main cleavage is between "new politics" and "old politics", being the PCE a clear representative of the latter. Pablo Iglesias, Errejón and the others have stated that IU has proved to be an inefficient instrument to attract a majority and win elections. They claim that the old dialectical cleavage between the left and the right leads inevitably to defeat, among other reasons because the mainstream left (socialdemocracy) gave up. In order to overcome such cleavage, they always appeal to the "social majority" as opposed to the ruling political and economic elites. 

Why is Errejón opposed or at least critical when he has otherwise been the one most in favour of closer relations with the rest of the left?

Errejón may have reservations or to be sceptical, but he doesn't oppose the alliance. Today he has accused PSOE of "constant pressure" on IU and Compromís in order to prevent an alliance with Podemos.

In recent times certain organizational and tactical differences between Errejón and Pablo Iglesias surfaced. However, they don't seem to have major ideological disagreements. Errejón is the main advocate of appealing the "social majority", while Iglesias and some people coming from the IU (Rafael Mayoral or Irene Montero) have great political and emotional affinity with people like Julio Anguita. The latter was the IU candidate in the 90s or, in other words, he was the leader of the "old alternative left". The most cherished dream of Anguita was that IU became the main party of the Spanish left by surpassing PSOE.

[Velasco]

King Felipe dissolves Parliament

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/04/world/europe/king-felipe-spain-dissolves-parliament-new-elections.html?ref=europe&_r=0

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[Velasco]

CIS, April 2016

PP 27.4% (28.7%), PSOE 21.6% (22%), Podemos 18.1%* (20.7%), C's 15.6% (13.9%), IU-UP 5.4% (3.7%), ERC 2.5% (2.4%), DiL 1.9% (2.3%). EAJ-PNV 1% (1.2%), EHBildu 0.7% (0.9%)

* (Podemos, En Comú Podem, En Marea, Compromís)

[aross]

Podemos - IU deal approved by the IU membership (84.5% yes, 13.1% no, 2.4% abstention). Turnout was 28%. The deal will apparently be officially announced on the 15th to celebrate the 5th anniversary of the 15-M.

[Velasco]

Podemos and IU have sealed a preliminary agreement to run a join list in the upcoming June elections. The membership of both organizations will vote tomorrow and the day after in order to validate the pact. Results will be known on Thursday. The agreement ensures 1/6 of the seats for IU, which in turn lows some ideological banners that are divisive issued between both organizations (republic as state form, nationalization of energy enterprises and leaving the NATO). The coalition includes Equo, the Spanish green party, that keeps the candidates who ran in December integrated in the Podemos lists (2 or 3 members were elected, the Equo leader was the top candidate in Álava). Regional alliances in Catalonia and Galicia will remain the same and IU will join the alliance between Podemos and Compromís in Valencia. In the Balearic Islands Podemos and IU are trying to add the 'eco-nationalist' MÉS. Both organizations will run in an electoral coalition and campaign jointly, although Podemos and IU are free to arrange their own campaign acts.

[aross]

Iglesias now brilliantly trolling the PSOE by proposing a deal for the Senate election. No news on whether it would be called the Frente Popular. Sanchez has unsurprisingly said no.

[Velasco]

Iglesias now brilliantly trolling the PSOE by proposing a deal for the Senate election

This offer has created some dissention in the PSOE. Ximo Puig, who is the Valencia premier and leads the party's regional branch, is negotiating a joint Senate list with Podemos and Compromís in the three provinces of the region. Pedro Sánchez opposes because PSOE is an "autonomous project". In case the deal was reached in Valencia, the PSOE's federal commission is likely to reject it. However Mr Puig wants to continue talks appealing to "exceptional circumstances" existing in the Valencia region, where PSOE governs with Compromís and has parliamentary support from Podemos.  He assures that's not a challenge to Sánchez and tries to convince the national leadership of the benefits of a pact in Valencia, which could help to prevent a PP majority in Senate.

Headline in El País reflects concern:

"Campaign duel between Podemos and PP leaves Socialists stuck in the middle. Left and right are pressuring Pedro Sánchez to choose a post-election partner"

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The editorial line of El País was traditionally close to the centre-left and PSOE. Currently its editorialists are openly hostile to Podemos and very excited with the centre-right Ciudadanos. The paper was a strong advocate of the PSOE-C's deal and apparently its current editor stated his wish to help the oranges to be a party of government. Conservative papers, on the other hand, are amusingly worried about the fate of IU and the communists.

In any case, the strategic lines of the campaign are drawn. PP will appeal to the fear factor (the menace of a Frente Popular), in order to mobilize conservative vote and attract moderates who left them for Ciudadanos. The alliance between Podemos and IU seeks to optimize the leftist vote and generate enough enthusiasm, in order to prevent abstentionism among its potential voters. Ciudadanos will market itself as a "responsible" party open to negotiate with PP and PSOE, ensuring governability and moderate reforms. PSOE is, indeed, stuck in the middle.

[Velasco]

Unidos Podemos ("United We Can") is the chosen name for the coalition between Podemos and IU. The agreement was endorsed by 98% of the Podemos supporters who turned out, as well by 87.8% of the IU's membership.

In Valencia Podemos, IU and Compromís sealed an agreement. Meanwhile, Valencian socialists abide the veto put by the PSOE's federal commission on a joint list with Podemos and Compromís for the Senate.

[Nanwe]

They worked really hard on the name

[Velasco]

The 'seriousness' of the Rajoy administration, the EC's 'good pupil', leads to this:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/05/18/inenglish/1463581059_204053.html

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[Velasco]

Basque Country poll (Gizaker)

Basque Parliament (in brackets, 2012 results)

EAJ-PNV 35.5% (34.2%), 27 (27) seats

EH Bildu 20.2% (24.7%), 16 (21) seats

Unidos Podemos 19.9% (IU 2.9%), 15 (-) seats

PSE-EE 11% (18.9%), 9 (16) seats

PP 9.2% (11.6%), 7 (10) seats

C's 3% (new), 1 (-) seat

General election (in brackets, December 2015 results)

Unidos Podemos 28.8% (Podemos 26%, IU-UP 2.9%), 6 (5) seats

EAJ-PNV 25.4% (24.8%), 6 (6) seats

EH Bildu 15.5% (15.1%), 2 (2) seats

PSE-EE 13.1% (13.3%), 2 (3) seats

PP 10.5% (11.6%), 2 (2) seats

C's 4.5% (4.1%), 0 (0) seats

http://www.electograph.com/2016/05/pais-vasco-generales-mayo-2016-sondeo.html

Fleg affair

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/05/20/inenglish/1463755712_233114.html

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[Velasco]

New episodes in the PP corruption saga: Bárcenas papers

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/05/23/inenglish/1464011231_909157.html

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In other news, a letter sent to Jean-Claude Juncker by Mariano Rajoy promises "additional measures" (that is to say: more cuts) if PP stays in government. Such a compromise is in open contradiction with Rajoy's discourse in Spain (less taxes and no more cuts).

A couple of polls released on the last few days show the Podemos-IU alliance about 3% ahead of PSOE. Translated into parliamentary seats, Unidos Podemos is on the verge of surpassing PSOE. Given the particular nature of the Spanish electoral system and that socialists resist better in the less populated provinces, it is estimated that Unidos Podemos needs an advantage of 3% or more to be the second force in parliament.

Metroscopia / El País

PP 29.9%, Unidos Podemos 23.2%, PSOE 20.2%, C's 15.5%

NC Report / La Razón

PP 30.4%, Unidos Podemos 24.9%, PSOE 21.1%, C's 14.5%

Graph showing the self-described ideological leaning of PP, PSOE, Podemos, C's and IU voters on a 1-10 scale (1= far-left, 10= far-right), based on the CIS post-election survey (April 2016)



Source: Politikon

http://politikon.es/2016/05/20/politikon-grafico-el-nuevo-espacio-de-competicion-politica/

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I wonder who might be "2" PP voter? What type of person?