Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

I wonder who might be "2" PP voter? What type of person?

I don't know. The percentage of PP voters placed between 2 and 4 is negligible. It must be a type of person as weird as the PSOE voter placed on the 9.

As shown in the graph below Podemos is hegemonic among voters placed on the far-left (1-2), voters placed on the left are divided between Podemos (3) and PSOE (4), the centre (5-6) is overcrowded with C's as the preferred option of voters placed on 5 and PP enjoys an overwhelming support in the right (7-8) and the far-right (9-10).

It must be noted that the average Spanish voter is placed between 4 and 5, which is the place where voters place the PSOE (4.52). Podemos (2.24) and IU (2.33) are perceived by voters near the far left, C's on the centre right (6.43) and PP on the right (8.24).

Other data from the CIS post-election survey shows interesting cleavages. I'll point a few taken with an analysis linked below with graphs and stuff.

http://debate21.es/2016/05/03/el-cis-postelectoral-a-fondo/

Age groups:

18-24: Podemos 31.2%, C's 17.6%, PSOE 14.5%, PP 11.8%, IU 3.7%
25-34: Podemos 35.7%, C's 16%, PSOE 13.4%, PP 11.1%, IU 3.6%
35-44: Podemos 22.8%, C's 18.2%, PP 17.6%, PSOE 15.4%, IU 3.8%
45-54: PSOE 21.4%, Podemos 20.6%, PP 18.6%, C's 13.5%, IU 4.9%
55-64: PSOE 25.7%, PP 20.9%, Podemos 16.1%, C's 9.5%, IU 4.9%
65 +:   PP 37.6%, PSOE 22.2%, Podemos 8.2%, C's 4.9%, IU 1.8%

Level of education:

Without studies: PSOE 33.7%, PP 33.2%, Podemos 8.4%, C's 4.9%, IU 1.9%
Primary education: PP 30.7%, PSOE 29.2%, Podemos 10%, C's 5.4%, IU 2%
Secondary education (1st stage): PP 22.2%, PSOE 21.9%, Podemos 19.6%, C's 10.5%, IU 3.5%
Secondary education (2nd stage): Podemos 25.2%, PP 18,2%, PSOE 14.9%, C's 14.5%, IU 3.3%
Professional training: Podemos 25.4%, PSOE 17.8%, PP 16.6%, C's 15.4%, IU 3.7%
Higher education: Podemos 24.3%, PP 18.5%, C's 17.8%, PSOE 10%, IU 5.9%

Population of the municipalities:

Less than 2K: PP 32.5%, PSOE 22.9%, Podemos 10.5%, C's 8.6%, IU 1.6%
2K to 10K: PSOE 24.8%, PP 22.1%, Podemos 15.8%, C's 8.3%, IU 3.5%
10K to 50K: PSOE 21.3%, PP 18.8%, Podemos 18.6%, C's 12.8%, IU 3.6%
50K to 1000K: PP 23.8%, Podemos 22.3%, PSOE 18%, C's 13.7%, IU 3.5%
100K to 400K: Podemos 24.6%, PP 20.6%, PSOE 16.6%, C's 13.5%, IU 3.8%
400K to 1M: Podemos 24%, PP 23.2%, PSOE 18.6%, C's 16.8%, IU 5.7%
More than 1M: Podemos 23.2%, PP 20.3%, C's 13.2%, PSOE 12.6%, IU 4.4%

According to CIS Podemos is the preferred party among the "upper and upper-middle classes", PP wins in the "old middle classes" and is tied to Podemos in the "new middle classes", PSOE is the choice of skilled and non-skilled workers. I think the "socio-economic status"categories in the CIS surveys are a bit strange, tbh.

As for the "socio-economic condition" categories, they show that Podemos has an overwhelming support among students and is the preferred party of technicians and middle managers. PP wins among retirees, peasants and domestic workers. Directors, professionals and small entrepreneurs prefer PP or Podemos in this order. Podemos and C's are the preferred parties of the office workers. Skilled and non-skilled workers, as well the unemployed prefer Podemos or PSOE.

[jaichind]

It is impressive that Podemos–IU seems to be running slightly ahead of its 2015 performance.  In situations like this one would expect polarization toward the two largest blocs in 2015 which would be PP and PSOE but this does not seem to be the case.  In the election results roughly matches polls are we not just stuck in the same deadlock as 2015?  If PSOE loses support from 2015 to the point where they are behind Podemos–IU would they not support PP-C from the outside to prevent another election where they will lose more support ?

[Nanwe]

It is impressive that Podemos–IU seems to be running slightly ahead of its 2015 performance.  In situations like this one would expect polarization toward the two largest blocs in 2015 which would be PP and PSOE but this does not seem to be the case.  In the election results roughly matches polls are we not just stuck in the same deadlock as 2015?  If PSOE loses support from 2015 to the point where they are behind Podemos–IU would they not support PP-C from the outside to prevent another election where they will lose more support ?

You would expect polarisation toward the two largest ideological blocs. As it has happened, Podemos and IU have a much clearer ideological positioning and bent than the PSOE (or C's, but for C's that's an asset) does. As a result, polarisation favours the two more extreme political forces, PP and Podemos+IU.

Yes, we are. Even if PSOE comes behind in terms of votes, it will remain ahead in terms of seats due to our electoral system's quirks. Podemos just doesn't have the necessary rural base.

That last question is the key.  Perhaps, but perhaps they will try to make sure to lead a left-wing government to try and regain the dominance on the left.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What about the Catalonia situation?

[Velasco]

What about the Catalonia situation?

It's as confusing as ever. The Catalan government is facing problems to pass this year's budget, that Oriol Junqueras (the ERC leader and vicepremier in charge of the economic portfolio) deems as the one with the most social awareness in history. Despite that claim JxSí has been left alone by the CUP, whose grassroots voted a couple of days ago to break the deal with the ruling coalition. Rumours of a new election take shape, by the moment ruled out by regional government. In the JxSí alliance ERC and CDC distance themselves. CDC is in a process of re-foundation and their grassroots and cadres don't like the measures Junqueras wants to implement in order to please the CUP (in vain), contrary to the party's economic philosophy. ERC wants to become the main force of the Catalan nationalism and make plans of future alliances with En Comú Podem.

In Barcelona, Mayoress Ada Colau is facing similar problems with the CUP to pass the budget. Recently Barcelona en Comú and PSC reached an agreement and the Catalan socialists have joined the local government. BComú and PSC are lacking a majority and need the support of ERC and the CUP. The eviction of some squatters in the Gràcia district and subsequent incidents and havoc have created controversy. Local government condemned the violent incidents, while the CUP supports the evicted unconditionally and links the police action with support to local and regional budgets.

[Simfan34]

But how is the road map to independence coming along? It seems as if things have stalled due to the broader electoral situation.

[Velasco]

Rajoy's letter to Juncker proves he has a hidden agenda, claims opposition

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/05/24/inenglish/1464076568_248060.html

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Almost 30% of Spaniards at risk of poverty and social exclusion

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/05/24/inenglish/1464093786_635472.html

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El País entitles today that Unidos Podemos prepares a campaign "on the offensive" with the aim of becoming in an alternative of government. Alliance partners anticipate "much tension" and attacks from all sides. It's predictable a campaign against the Podemos-IU alliance from mainstream media, as it has been happening with the purple party before the 2015 elections. In this context, C's leader Albert Rivera is in Venezuela in support of opposition leaders. Obviously this travel has a connection with the Spanish campaign and the attempts to link Podemos with the Chavista wreckage lead by Maduro (the president is so discredited that Enrique Mujica, who supports Podemos in Spain, said recently that he's crazy), as well with the unverified claims of illegal funding from Venezuela. Asked in a radio station if he was as concerned by the Syrian refugee crisis as he is with Venezuela, Rivera said that he paid a visit to Greece. No echo in media.

Metroscopia analysis.

PP voters: "aged and moved to the right"

60% of PP voters are over 55 years, 28% between 35 and 54 years and only 12% are between 18 and 34. The age composition of the Spanish electorate is: 40% over 55, 39% between 35 and 54 and 21% between 18 and 34.

Profile by occupation (in brackets, average of the Spanish electorate): employed 30% (41%), retirees and pensioners 40% (25%), unemployed 10% (16%), student 6% (8%), unpaid domestic work 13% (10%)

Sex ratio: men 46% / women 54% (48% / 52%)

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/05/24/actualidad/1464102939_221275.html

PSOE voters: "women and retirees"

PSOE is the preferred party among women (44/56 ratio). The age composition of PSOE voters is: 54% over 55, 33% between 35 and 44, 13% between 18 and 34.

Profile by occupation: employed 38%, retirees and pensioners 36%, unemployed 10%, student 4%, unpaid domestic work 12%.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/05/23/actualidad/1464025230_355867.html?rel=mas

[Velasco]

It seems as if things have stalled due to the broader electoral situation.

It's stalled by the broader electoral situation as well by disunity in the separatist camp and other factors. 

[bmw1503]

It's fascinating (and quite shocking) to see Podemos doing so well amongst the wealthiest Spaniards, which doesn't really seem to have an international comparison (for instance, Syriza got crushed with that group in the Greek elections.) Obviously their first rank position is due to the split in the right vote between PP and Cs, but it still seems like an usually high vote share for a quite left-wing party. Doubly so having seen the election results last time in Madrid neighborhoods like Salamanca that one thinks of when imaging affluent Spain.

[Velasco]

It's fascinating (and quite shocking) to see Podemos doing so well amongst the wealthiest Spaniards, which doesn't really seem to have an international comparison (for instance, Syriza got crushed with that group in the Greek elections.) Obviously their first rank position is due to the split in the right vote between PP and Cs, but it still seems like an usually high vote share for a quite left-wing party. Doubly so having seen the election results last time in Madrid neighborhoods like Salamanca that one thinks of when imaging affluent Spain.

I think that CIS surveys can lead to confusion in what regards the "socioeconomic status" (categories should be reviewed). Podemos does pretty well amongst Spaniards with a high level of education and certain professionals, as well amongst middle class individuals that have lost income or have uncertain prospects of future, or had to flee due to the lack of job opportunities (Podemos is the first party amongst expats, hence the government has little intent to lift legal restrictions to vote overseas). However, Podemos is not the first party amongst the most affluent Spaniards. As you can expect, PP is hegemonic in wealthy places like Salamanca district in Madrid and the second party is Ciudadanos.

[Velasco]

Profile of Unidos Podemos voters, according to Metroscopia:

Sex ratio: men 57% / women 43% (average 48% / 52%)

Age groups: 24% over 55 years (average 40%), 41% between 35 and 54 (average 39%), 35% between 18 and 34 (average 21%)

Occupation: employed 46% (41%), retiree or pensioner 11% (25%), unemployed 23% (16%), student 16% (8%), unpaid domestic work 4% (10%)

Ideology: 31% socialist, 17% socialdemocrat, 15% communist, 12% liberal, 4% radical left, 3% anarchist.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/05/25/actualidad/1464200025_090852.html


Long read about Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau in The Guardian, on the first anniversary of the 'governments of change':

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/26/ada-colau-barcelona-most-radical-mayor-in-the-world

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[Velasco]

A Celeste-Tel poll released by eldiario.es shows Unidos Podemos 2% ahead of PSOE. However, socialists would keep the status of second parliamentary force. The alliance between Podemos and IU would have the consequence of increasing the seats of the left block in Congress, although an hypothetical PSOE-UP coalition would be still short of a majority.

PP 29.5% (120-122 seats), UP 24.2% (78-82), PSOE 22% (84-87), C's 14.9% (38-41), Others 9.4% (21-23)

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Unidos-Podemos-confluencias-PSOE-escanos_0_520048634.html

Profile of the "volatile" C's voters, according to Metroscopia

Sex ratio: men 51% / women 49% (48% / 52%)

Age composition: 23% over 55 (40%), 55% between 35 and 54 (39%), 22% between 18 and 34 (21%)

Occupation: employed 50% (41%), retiree or pensioner 13% (25%), unemployed 18% (16%), student 8% (8%), unpaid domestic work 10% (10%)

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/05/26/actualidad/1464277354_913281.html

[Velasco]

What about the Catalonia situation?

It's as confusing as ever. The Catalan government is facing problems to pass this year's budget, that Oriol Junqueras (the ERC leader and vicepremier in charge of the economic portfolio) deems as the one with the most social awareness in history. Despite that claim JxSí has been left alone by the CUP, whose grassroots voted a couple of days ago to break the deal with the ruling coalition. Rumours of a new election take shape, by the moment ruled out by regional government. In the JxSí alliance ERC and CDC distance themselves. CDC is in a process of re-foundation and their grassroots and cadres don't like the measures Junqueras wants to implement in order to please the CUP (in vain), contrary to the party's economic philosophy. ERC wants to become the main force of the Catalan nationalism and make plans of future alliances with En Comú Podem.

In Barcelona, Mayoress Ada Colau is facing similar problems with the CUP to pass the budget. Recently Barcelona en Comú and PSC reached an agreement and the Catalan socialists have joined the local government. BComú and PSC are lacking a majority and need the support of ERC and the CUP. The eviction of some squatters in the Gràcia district and subsequent incidents and havoc have created controversy. Local government condemned the violent incidents, while the CUP supports the evicted unconditionally and links the police action with support to local and regional budgets.

If a new election happens in Catalonia, would ERC, CiU and the ICV nationalists (Romeva) stay in a joint list?

Everything points that JxSí is going to be a short-lived alliance. but nobody really knows. Right now Oriol Junqueras is conducting a "complex" budgetary negotiation with the CUP. The CUPaires demand a set of new taxes and to disobey the Constitutional Court, which has banned taxes the regional government wanted to implement (they are not included in the Junquera's draft). As well, the CUP demands the immediate implementation of the declaration that proclaims the beginning of the independence process. It's possible that they reach a last hour agreement, as it happened when Artur Mas stepped aside and Carles Puigdemont was appointed in his place. A new election provokes vertigo in all sides involved.

Yesterday in Madrid, Catalonia premier Carles Puigdemont explained his road map in a public act. Puigdemont said that independence process continues "unstoppable", it's not a temporary thing and that "patience is not infinite". Actually, Mr Puigdemont didn't say anything new. He keeps the plan according to which "a new constituent election" will be called "within a reasonable time" ("initially 18 months"). The new parliament, acting on its own behalf, would draft a new constitution for Catalonia. Once the constitution was approved in a referendum, regional government would proclaim independence. Puigdemont assured that the process is not against Spaniards and said that in case it's fulfilled he won't be candidate again. However in the eventuality of a snap election (in case he cannot pass the budget), he would be "forced to run".

As for the Barcelona budget, I was outdated. Earlier this month the CUP reached some agreement with the local government and the abstention of its councilors allowed to pass a budget change.

Meanwhile, in Gràcia:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/05/27/inenglish/1464342556_463734.html

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Colau's predecessor, former CiU mayor Xavier Trias, is under scrutiny because he paid the rent in order to avoid riots and disturbances (a previous incident in Sants cost him votes in the last local election).

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[Velasco]

The outcome of the June 2016 general election will be decided in a handful of provinces, electoral districts where the last seat was hotly contested in December 2015. 5 or 6 seats moving to the right or the left can alter the balance of forces. Some key districts to watch are: Barcelona, Cádiz, Sevilla, Córdoba, Málaga, Jaén, León, Cantabria, Guadalajara and Albacete.

Metroscopia released today a series of constituency polls, including the four most populated provinces and others considered of strategic value. They are usually of little value, but anyway:

Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and Sevilla



Other key districts



The seat total in these 11 constituencies would be:

UP+allies 40-41 (31), PP 37-39 (42), PSOE 30-33 (33), C's 19-22 (21), ERC 4 (5), CDC 3 (4)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I can't remember - are UpyD (UtrieD, more like) bothering to run?

[jaichind]

It seems Podemos–IU is destined to gain seats even if their vote share stays the same as 2015 mostly because of the combined vote share would push them above the threshold to get seats in several electoral districts and for sure ensure that the 2015 IU vote is not wasted. 

[Velasco]

I can't remember - are UpyD (UtrieD, more like) bothering to run?

It seems that they keep on trying. According to the provisional list of candidacies published by the official gazette, seven parties and coalitions are going to run in all electoral districts: PP, PSOE, UP and allies, C's, PACMA, UPyD and Recortes Cero-Grupo Verde.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

prediction: the only thing that will break the deadlock is Rajoy literally being arrested.

[Velasco]

prediction: the only thing that will break the deadlock is Rajoy literally being arrested.

The arrest of Mr Rajoy is very unlikely; no matter how many high towers fall around him, the man stands undaunted. He knew nothing, he was only passing by... Anyway if it's for the good of the country and to unlock the political situation, I second the motion.

In the news, IU membership gave an overwhelming support (74.7%) to the list topped by Alberto Garzón in a vote held on May 26 and 27. The list supported by the current coordinator (IU's leader) Cayo Lara got 20.8% and the list supported by former coordinator Gaspar Llamazares got 4.6%. Turnout was 40.2%. Garzón will be officially appointed next weekend as the new leader of IU.

Mariano Rajoy keeps his promise of lowering Income Tax, despite the noncompliance of deficit targets.

The PSOE offers a "political agreement" to Catalonia that recognises the "singularity" of the region "preserving the implications of the principle of equality". PSC's secretary general Miquel Iceta praises the "courage" of Pedro Sánchez, who returns the compliment to his Catalan counterpart. Sánchez gives support to Iceta in his opposition to an appeal submitted by PP before the Constitutional Court, in order to suppress some social legislation passed by the Parliament of Catalonia conservatives deem as a "separatist challenge".

A campaign video launched by Ciudadanos caricatures Pablo Iglesias and Podemos supporters as idle people who don't want to make an effort to get Spain back on its feet. A bar client makes an emotional speech criticizing the worthless and egoist elites and praising the heroic common people, then Albert Rivera appears in TV. The video has raised some criticism ("populist", "anti-political rhetoric").

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXZLUrsIda4

[jaichind]

I can't remember - are UpyD (UtrieD, more like) bothering to run?

It seems that they keep on trying. According to the provisional list of candidacies published by the official gazette, seven parties and coalitions are going to run in all electoral districts: PP, PSOE, UP and allies, C's, PACMA, UPyD and Recortes Cero-Grupo Verde.

Why would not UPyD consider an alliance/joint list with C.  It is clear their votes will be wasted due to threshold effects

[Velasco]

MyWord poll

PP 29.2%, UP 24.8%, PSOE 20.7%, C's 14.2%, Others 10.1%

Preferred coalition:

Leftwing government (PSOE and UP) 31.9%, Grand Coalition (PP, PSOE, C's) 24.9%, Cross Coalition (PSOE, C's, UP) 15.9% , Centre-right or rightwing government (PP and C's) 14.1%, don't know / don't answer 13.2%

With whom your party should not make agreements?

Voted PP: Podemos 86.4%, PSOE 14.4%, C's 12.2%, should deal with any of them 2.2%
Voted PSOE: PP 55%, Podemos 33.6%, C's 19.8%, should deal with any of them 14.4%
Voted Podemos: PP 76.7%, C's 47.6%, PSOE 16.9%, should deal with any of them 10.1%
Voted C's: Podemos 64.6%, PP 11.6%, PSOE 10.9%, should deal with any of them 23.1%

Which party has more responsibility in the repetition of the elections?

PSOE 31.1%, PP 26.1%, Podemos 13.1%, C's 2.4%, None 2%, All 16.5%

http://cadenaser.com/ser/2016/05/27/politica/1464368417_454489.html

I can't remember - are UpyD (UtrieD, more like) bothering to run?

It seems that they keep on trying. According to the provisional list of candidacies published by the official gazette, seven parties and coalitions are going to run in all electoral districts: PP, PSOE, UP and allies, C's, PACMA, UPyD and Recortes Cero-Grupo Verde.

Why would not UPyD consider an alliance/joint list with C.  It is clear their votes will be wasted due to threshold effects

When UPyD was something, party leader Rosa Díez rejected offers of electoral coalition from C's. Now Mrs Díez has left the party she founded and is a retired politician, while the remainder of UPyD is a marginal force. Probably people at C's don't even consider the possibility, given that UPyD has little votes to add to such an alliance.

[jaichind]

It the results matches the current polling I think the result will be a PP minority government with PSOE and C abstaining. There is no way  PSOE plays second fiddle to Podemos.

[Velasco]

It the results matches the current polling I think the result will be a PP minority government with PSOE and C abstaining. There is no way  PSOE plays second fiddle to Podemos.

It's too risky to make predictions, even more when the campaign has still not begun. Allowing PP to govern in minority with Rajoy at the head would be costly for PSOE and Ciudadanos, especially for the socialists. If results match with current polls, the responsibility in making a decision will rest on the PSOE. It's a terrible responsibility, because the future of the party is at stake and the PSOE leadership will be pressed from all sides (party factions and grassroots, other political actors involved, economic and supra-national powers) to make the 'correct' decision. Basically the options are:

a) Grand Coalition (PP-PSOE and eventually C's). The preferred option of the EC, the Troika and the great economic power.

b) Leftwing coalition. In case PSOE and UP reach 170 seats, it would be relatively easy that PNV votes the investiture or abstain. Polls say that UP will get more votes than PSOE, but it's not sure the Podemos-IU alliance is going to win more seats.

c) PP minority government or PP-C's coalition with the abstention of PSOE. This is in all likelihood the preferred option of some socialist 'barons' and old party elephants. Pedro Sánchez would be virtually dead and all eyes will turn to Andalusia premier Susana Díaz.

I think that option b) is very risky and difficult to realize, but options a) and c) are potentially suicidal for the PSOE. What will socialists do once they are at crossroads? Nobody knows, maybe c).

There would be an option d) called "technocratic government", presumably with the same supporting parties and implications of option a).

Keep in mind that among the main obstacles for the materialization of agreements involving PP are the corruption scandals and the acting PM. Right now it's hard to see Rajoy stepping aside for a technocrat or making way for another member of his party, but who knows? Maybe Mr Rajoy would feel vindicated if the result places PP first and go back to Pontevedra, to be replaced by Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría or someone else. That man is hermetic and undecipherable and there is a science that studies the 'Mariano Code' in the style of the old Kremlinology.

[ag]

a) would be lethal for PSOE, methinks. I mean, this is not the "normal" left/right relationship, where the two traditional parties may join to fight off the upstarts. For many ancestral PSOE people a government with PP would by High Treason.

b) would be too dangerous.

My bet would be on c) or d).

[Diouf]

Wouldn't PSOE have the opportunity to just play hardball by basically repeating what they have done this time: make a deal with C's and then try to pressure PP or Podemos into letting them govern?