Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

In the December 2015 election Podemos emerged strongly in the Basque Country, at the expense of the socialists (PSE-EE / PSOE) and the leftwing nationalist EH Bildu. Two interactive maps in El País show the results of Podemos and the drop of the EH Bildu support at municipal level.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/15/media/1466005099_919735.html

Podemos got over 30% of the vote in the municipalities located on the left side of the Bilbao Estuary (Barakaldo, Sestao, Santurtzi and others) and in some industrial towns of the Gipuzkoa province (Irún, Errentería, Pasaia, Lezo).

In contrast, there is a municipality where Podemos didn't cast a single vote. It's a tiny and relatively isolated village called Orexa, located in the Gipuzkoa province close to the border with Navarra. Everybody living there speaks Euskera (Basque). The village is organised by an old type of communal work called auzolan. 30 out of 126 inhabitants is under 18 and young people has the intent to stay. EH Bildu got 72 votes (96%), PNV 1 (1.33%) and 2 ballots were blank (2.67%). Fun fact: in the nearby Gaztelu Podemos got 27% of the vote.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/06/21/actualidad/1466532311_450417.html?rel=mas
 

[DL]

Does anyone think the British Brexit vote could have any impact on the outcome of the Spanish election on Sunday?

[Velasco]

"Spain’s parties use Brexit to advance their own agenda ahead of Sunday’s elections"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/24/inenglish/1466762780_229519.html

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Brexit has overshadowed the scandal involving Interior minister Jorge Fernández Díaz, who is unwilling to resign because he claims to be the victim of a conspiracy

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/23/inenglish/1466680993_751288.html

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Here's an interview (Spanish) with sociologist Belén Barreiro, who is director and founder of MyWord and was at the head of the CIS (Center of Sociological Research). I think some socialists should take her words into account. I also think that socialists are too much self-absorbed and disconnected from reality, so...

Headlines:

 - IF PSOE and UP add enough seats, it will be very difficult to explain they don't reach an agreement

- Podemos generates a lot of enthusiasm in campaign and a great disappointment when elections pass

- The Podemos key flaw is when they make normal politics, they do it with this 'pornographic society' perspective: "let's strip ourselves". Politics needs some discretion.

- The argument of some socialists is that Podemos wants to destroy them. In any competitive market,  organizations compete for a bigger market share.

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Podemos-enorme-campana-desilusion-elecciones_0_529497390.html

[Velasco]

Does anyone think the British Brexit vote could have any impact on the outcome of the Spanish election on Sunday?

Some analysts say that it would have an impact because some people would seek more stability. PP will try to take advantage. Others say it will have little impact. The scandal involving the minister of interior adds even more uncertainty.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Does anyone think the British Brexit vote could have any impact on the outcome of the Spanish election on Sunday?

Some analysts say that it would have an impact because some people would seek more stability. PP will try to take advantage. Others say it will have little impact. The scandal involving the minister of interior adds even more uncertainty.

If there's any lesson to be learned from the Brexit/Grexit referenda, it's that voters are not all that concerned about "stability" nor are they apt to listen to financial commentators or center-right politicians who preach doom in the face of political change. At least, that would be my take: there's little reason to believe that PP would benefit from this; maybe more naranjas will vote for PP but, outside of that, I don't see any benefits for Rajoy.

[DavidB.]

Would a potential left-wing coalition be more likely to accept an independent Scotland as EU member?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Would not the relative strength of Podemos-IU provoke C -> PP tactical voting?

That's the aim of the PP campaign: appealing to moderate voters to counter the "populist menace". I guess it would depend on the level of polarization in the following two weeks of electoral campaign, which now is officially open. By the moment polls say that PP and C's retain their shares with little variation.

is it awkward at all for a "People's Party"  to be campaigning against "populism"?

[Nanwe]

Would not the relative strength of Podemos-IU provoke C -> PP tactical voting?

That's the aim of the PP campaign: appealing to moderate voters to counter the "populist menace". I guess it would depend on the level of polarization in the following two weeks of electoral campaign, which now is officially open. By the moment polls say that PP and C's retain their shares with little variation.

is it awkward at all for a "People's Party"  to be campaigning against "populism"?

No. Largely because by know popular is completely disassociated with people when you think of the PP. In any case, when parties have 'people's' in their name and aren't socialist, it's usually a reference to the 'good people', the families, the gente de bien, etc. It's a rather Christian democratic kind of name.

[Velasco]

Would not the relative strength of Podemos-IU provoke C -> PP tactical voting?

That's the aim of the PP campaign: appealing to moderate voters to counter the "populist menace". I guess it would depend on the level of polarization in the following two weeks of electoral campaign, which now is officially open. By the moment polls say that PP and C's retain their shares with little variation.

is it awkward at all for a "People's Party"  to be campaigning against "populism"?

No. Largely because by know popular is completely disassociated with people when you think of the PP. In any case, when parties have 'people's' in their name and aren't socialist, it's usually a reference to the 'good people', the families, the gente de bien, etc. It's a rather Christian democratic kind of name.

"Good and hardworking people", gente de orden. Regarding the PP I see certain perversions of the language, not only in the name. Rajoy and the other spokepersons market themselves as "moderate", "centrist" and  bearers of common sense. The reality is that PP voters perceive the party to the right of themselves and on average Spaniards think that it's very rightwing, even reactionary. As for the common sense, you have a good sample in the Fernández Díaz affair. Still, many people will vote for the PP. On the other hand someone said that all parties are "populist", especially when campaigning. The Podemos people argues that Arias Cañete driving a tractor in the EP 2014 campaign was a good example of populist campaigning.

Would a potential left-wing coalition be more likely to accept an independent Scotland as EU member?

I haven't an answer for that.

Does anyone think the British Brexit vote could have any impact on the outcome of the Spanish election on Sunday?

Some analysts say that it would have an impact because some people would seek more stability. PP will try to take advantage. Others say it will have little impact. The scandal involving the minister of interior adds even more uncertainty.

If there's any lesson to be learned from the Brexit/Grexit referenda, it's that voters are not all that concerned about "stability" nor are they apt to listen to financial commentators or center-right politicians who preach doom in the face of political change. At least, that would be my take: there's little reason to believe that PP would benefit from this; maybe more naranjas will vote for PP but, outside of that, I don't see any benefits for Rajoy.

Maybe the desire for "stability" will be reflected not in the election results, but in more acceptance by public opinion of the 'Monti' and 'Grand Coalition' kind of agreements. The Podemos adversaries hope that Brexit will be bad for them and try to take advantage of the conmotion. Mariano Rajoy strengthens his calls for "stability" and "order" hoping to mobilize the undecided in his favour, as well to attract orange voters. PSOE and C's bashed Cameron's "irresponsibility" for calling a referendum and claim for a 'third way' between populism and political immobilism. The Unidos Podemos campaign was quite successful in deactivating the language of fear, but now Brexit adds uncertainty and purples are concerned. In any case, tomorrow doubts will be solved. 

[Beezer]

Having read a bit about Podemos now, it is interesting to see their approach to politics as a leftist party that eschews a traditional leftist worldview and appeals to the "working class" in favor of outright populism and the whole "people vs. elite/caste" narrative that comes with it in order to appeal to a broader segment of the electorare. Of course entering an electoral alliance with the IU and PCE totally goes against that - also in light of the criticism someone like Iglesias has voiced about the orthodox and rigidity of these parties. Were the critical voices within Podemos that objected to this strategy? Or am I just completely misinterpreting their ideological approach?

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- (Corrects to move reference to final poll in headline) Caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party on track for 116-120 seats in Sunday’s election, according to a Gesop survey published by El Periodic d’Andorra on its website.
PP rises from 114-118 seats in Friday’s poll, down from 123 seats in Dec. 20 election
Podemos set for 83-87 seats vs 71 in December
Socialists on 83-87 seats vs 90
Ciudadanos 38-42 seats vs 40
Poll based on 900 interviews conducted June 22-24

[ag]

(Bloomberg) -- (Corrects to move reference to final poll in headline) Caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party on track for 116-120 seats in Sunday’s election, according to a Gesop survey published by El Periodic d’Andorra on its website.
PP rises from 114-118 seats in Friday’s poll, down from 123 seats in Dec. 20 election
Podemos set for 83-87 seats vs 71 in December
Socialists on 83-87 seats vs 90
Ciudadanos 38-42 seats vs 40
Poll based on 900 interviews conducted June 22-24

Why not post the link to the Andorreans ?

http://sondeos.elperiodic.ad/quinto-sondeo-elecciones-generales-26j.html

[Velasco]

Having read a bit about Podemos now, it is interesting to see their approach to politics as a leftist party that eschews a traditional leftist worldview and appeals to the "working class" in favor of outright populism and the whole "people vs. elite/caste" narrative that comes with it in order to appeal to a broader segment of the electorare. Of course entering an electoral alliance with the IU and PCE totally goes against that - also in light of the criticism someone like Iglesias has voiced about the orthodox and rigidity of these parties. Were the critical voices within Podemos that objected to this strategy? Or am I just completely misinterpreting their ideological approach?

Yes, the alliance between Podemos and IU is a bit contradictory with the Podemos initial premise. It has changed the narrative of this election: December 2015 was a confrontation between "old politics" (PP and PSOE) and "new politics" (Podemos and C's), June 2016 is more similar to the classic confrontation between the Left and the Right. There were political differences between Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias and second in command Íñigo Errejón. Iglesias and others wanted the alliance, while Errejón was very reluctant. Errejón is totally engaged with the "populist hypothesis" and considers that "socialdemocrat" or "communist" are outdated labels. However, the new coalition Unidos Podemos introduced a factor of novelty in this campaign and they have made a good use of it. Podemos people is masterful in campaigning, especially Errejón.
 
The Podemos populism is not easy to explain. Firstly, in our postcapitalist society it's hard to talk about the "working class" as a homogeneous collective subject. Secondly, what do you mean exactly with "outright populism"? The Podemos leadership is clearly leftist (I should say post-Marxist); that's their background and ideology. They are very influenced by Gramsci and by an Argentinian political theorist called Ernesto Laclau, particularly by a book called On Populist Reason

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernesto_Laclau

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His widow Chantal Mouffe published recently an opinion article in El País called "The Populist Moment". I'll try to translate some excerpts.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/06/opinion/1465228236_594864.html

Today in Europe we are living a populist moment that means a turning point for our democracies, which future will depend on the response that is given to this challenge. To confront this situation is necessary to reject the media simplistic vision of populism as pure demagoguery and to adopt an analytical perspective. I propose to follow Ernesto Laclau, who defines the populism as a way of constructing the political, consisting in the establishment of a political border that divides society in two fields, appealing to the mobilization of "los de abajo" (those who are downwards, the people) opposite to "los de arriba" (those who are upwards, the elites). Populism is not an ideology and it's not possible to attribute it a programmatical specific content. Neither is a political regime and is compatible with a variety of state forms. It's a way of doing politics that can take different forms according to epochs and places. It arises when aims to construct a new subject of collective action -the people- able to reconfigure a social order lived as unjust

Examined from this optics, the recent surge of populist forms of politics in Europe appears as the expression of a crisis of liberal-democratic politics due to the convergence of several phenomena, which in the last years have affected the conditions of the exercise of democracy. The first one is what I have proposed to call 'post-politics' to refer to the blur of the political border between the Right and the Left. It was the result of the consensus established between the centre-right and centre-left parties on the idea of that there was no alternative to the neoliberal globalisation. (...) In this way it was challenged the very heart of the democratic idea: the power of the people (...)

(...)Far from being a progress towards a more mature society, as it is said sometimes, this evolution undermines the bases of our western model of democracy, habitually designated as republican. This model was the result of the articulation between two traditions: the liberal of the constitutional state, separation of powers and affirmation of individual freedom, and the democratic tradition of equality and popular sovereignty. These two political logics are ultimately irreconcilable, since always a tension will exist between the principles of freedom and equality. But this tension is constitutive of our republican model because it guarantees pluralism.

As the border between the Left and the Right became blurry by the reduction of democracy to its liberal dimension, it disappeared the space where that agonistic confrontation between adversaries could take place. And democratic aspirations no longer find channels of expression in the frame of traditional politics. The Demos, the sovereign people, has been declared a zombie category and now we are living in post-democratic societies.

These changes at political level fall within the frame of a new hegemonic neoliberal formation, characterized by a form of regulation of capitalism in which financial capital has a central position. We have witnessed the exponential increase of inequality that not only concerns the lower class, but also to a large proportion of the middle class, which has entered in a process of impoverishment and precariousness. It is possible to speak about a real phenomenon of oligarquisation of our societies.

In this context of social and political crisis have arisen a variety of populist movements that reject the post-politics and the post-democracy. They proclaim that they are going to return to the people the voice that has been confiscated by the elites. Regardless of the problematic forms that can take some of these movements, it is important to admit that they rely on legitimate democratic aspirations. The people, nevertheless, can be constructed in very different ways and the problem is that not all of they go in a progressive direction. In several European countries this aspiration to recover sovereignty has been caught by rightwing populist parties that have managed to construct the people through a xenophobic speech that excludes immigrants, deemed as a threat for prosperity(...)

The only way to prevent the emergence of such parties and oppose those already existing is through the construction of another people, promoting a progressive populist movement receptive to those democratic aspirations and channels them towards the defence of equality and social justice

What is at stake is the constitution of a collective will that establishes a synergy between the multiplicity of social movements and political forces which aim is the deepening of democracy. In so far as wide social sectors are suffering the effects of financial capitalism, a potential exists in order that this collective will has a transverse character that exceeds the left/right cleavage as it's formed traditionally. To rise to the occasion of the challenge that represents the populist moment for the development of democracy, it's needed a form of politics that restores the tension between the liberal and the democratic logic and, despite some people claim, it's possible to do it without putting republican institutions at risk

I think that's enough to get the idea. I've put a sentence in bold letters because it's related with a claim or remark made by the spokepoersons of the Indignados movement back in May 2011, that is their protest was the best antidote against the spread of xenophobia and other hate speeches.

[Beezer]

With "outright populism" I mean the most basic definition out there, namely the bisection of society into the two groups of "the people" and "the elite" along with the valorization of the former and vilification of the latter.

Errejon is an interesting character because contrary to other leftists he, as you mentioned, wholly embraces the populist label. Of course that's in line with Mouffe and her view that populism can serve as a corrective. I suppose Iglesias is more of a traditional politician whose primary goal is to obtain political power. If that can be achieved by discarding old principles, why not?

[Velasco]

I suppose Iglesias is more of a traditional politician whose primary goal is to obtain political power. If that can be achieved by discarding old principles, why not?

Not exactly. Iglesias is also influenced by Laclau, but he has more fondness for certain figures of IU (the traditional "alternative" or "post-communist" left). Discarding old principles can be interpreted in two ways: lack of consistency and scruples or flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances. Podemos stands for equality and social justice and both are the main principles of the Left. Among the best virtues of Podemos as electoral machine is that it's a very dynamic party in constant mutation. It has engaged in politics many young people, intellectuals, artists and other social collectives, taking them out from apathy in a context of a deep crisis with multiple faces. Even adversaries should acknowledge that. As for the flaws, critics say subordination of principles to strategy and excess of manoeuvering, also a couple of things pointed in a previous post. Iglesias has blind spots, of course. Personally, I don't like very much his occasional fits of arrogance nor I like the cult of personality that some of his supporters profess. Without a shadow of a doubt he is the most gifted politician of Spain right now, in the sense that he has a complete stage control and great communication skills. However, he has a polarising personality and that works against him (supporters revere him like a rock star, but he arouses animosity among other people). The good thing for Iglesias is that he's not alone; he has a team behind and UP has more reference persons. It'd be misleading to believe that Podemos is a party around a charismatic figure. Iglesias is ambitious and that's legitimate. As for certain old banners of the left, I think that most of the people don't care.

[Nanwe]

The day begins. Any guesses on what turnout will be? Polls said similar to December, but I remain sceptical.

[Velasco]

Turnout at 14:00 (CET) is 36.86%, almost identical to December. This doesn't mean that figures are going to be the same when polling stations close at 20:00. It could drop in the afternoon... or not.

[Zanas]

I can't remember if someone has posted links to a good results page.

So, this is the Junta Electoral Central page.

I don't know if some newspapers' pages are better, quicker, if so please post a link.

I'll be attending a special evening organized by Podemos Paris to follow the results! Whether UP overtakes PSOE or fails miserably, I will most likely be drunk some time this evening...

[Velasco]

I'll be attending a special evening organized by Podemos Paris to follow the results! Whether UP overtakes PSOE or fails miserably, I will most likely be drunk some time this evening...

Have a good evening, whatever the results are. I must confess that I got a bit drunk myself tonight. I said to my friends that I was hesitating between the different ballots because, as a good Peronist, I'm ideologically flexible. A little more seriously, I should consider to go to the polling station in a moment.

[Zanas]

This is the first election in quite some time when I am actually a bit enthusiastic about one of the options. It's getting rarer and rarer... Podemos and IU, with so different backgrounds, actually achieving to work together on a program and ballot repartition, you don't see that often and it gives a little hope. Let's see what's next and what the pueblo thinks !

[jaichind]

Turnout at 14:00 (CET) is 36.86%, almost identical to December. This doesn't mean that figures are going to be the same when polling stations close at 20:00. It could drop in the afternoon... or not.

It seems by region



Turnout by 2pm was higher relative to 2015 in areas of PP and PSOE strength.

[ag]

Holding fingers crossed for PSOE.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg : SPAIN VOTE PARTICIPATION AT 51.17% AT 6.15PM, DOWN FROM DEC.

[jaichind]

Looks like turnout is down 7% and is a record low.   This should help mchine parties like PP and PSOE.

[Double Carpet]

TV coverage:

http://www.rtve.es/noticias/mas-24/

Assuming seats similar to Dec 15, what do people think the new government will be?