Spanish elections and politics

[jaichind]

Exit polls rumors are that Podemos overtook PSOE and that C is doing badly. 

[jaichind]

Exit polls:
PP 117-121
Podemos at 91-95 seats
PSOE 81-85
C 26-30

[jaichind]

In theory Podemos+PSOE has majority.  But in 2015 exit polls seems to have underestimated PP so we will have to see.

[jaichind]

GAD3 exit poll has PP 123 Podemos 88 PSOE 85 C 31.  Very close to Podemos+PSOE majority.

[windjammer]

GAD3 exit poll has PP 123 Podemos 88 PSOE 85 C 31.  Very close to Podemos+PSOE majority.

There are as well some indy leftist regionalist parties right?
I guess that should be enough for a leftwing coalition.

[jaichind]

GAD3 exit poll has PP 123 Podemos 88 PSOE 85 C 31.  Very close to Podemos+PSOE majority.

There are as well some indy leftist regionalist parties right?
I guess that should be enough for a leftwing coalition.

Main problem here is will PSOE be willing to play second fiddle to Podemos.  Most likely not.

[Double Carpet]

So, PSOE could either join Podemos-led govt, or grand coalition with PP? Latter less likely?

Also ERC projected 11-12, would they back UP-PSOE gov, or does Catalonia issue get in way?

Iglesias to follow Tsipras as Europe's 2nd radical left PM?

PNV projected 5-6.

PP + C's well short so only governing option for PP is with PSOE?

I think official results site gets going in 1 hour once Canaries close?

Thoughts welcome, thanks!

[windjammer]

GAD3 exit poll has PP 123 Podemos 88 PSOE 85 C 31.  Very close to Podemos+PSOE majority.

There are as well some indy leftist regionalist parties right?
I guess that should be enough for a leftwing coalition.

Main problem here is will PSOE be willing to play second fiddle to Podemos.  Most likely not.

Well, PSOE and Podemos seem to be really close. Let's see if indeed PSOE will be behind

[jaichind]

Vote share projections seems to be

PP           28.5%
Podemos  25.6%
PSOE       22.0%
C             11.8%

PP and PSOE same as 2015, C down around 2% and Podemos up around 1.2%

[Bacon King]

how likely is Pablo Iglesias being elected Prime Minister with these results?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Link to the official vote count?

[jaichind]

Exit poll graphic from RTVE

[jaichind]

GAD3 exit poll image graphic

[jaichind]

I most likely do not know what I am talking about.  But based on the turnout patterns I feel the exit poll most likely overestimates Podemos and underestimates PP and PSOE.    I guess we will see.

[Double Carpet]

Official vote count is here, will go live at 9pm Spain time once Canaries have closed:

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es

[Antonio the Sixth]

Official vote count is here, will go live at 9pm Spain time once Canaries have closed:

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es

Thanks!

[Velasco]

I most likely do not know what I am talking about.  But based on the turnout patterns I feel the exit poll most likely overestimates Podemos and underestimates PP and PSOE.    I guess we will see.

It's possible. Exit polls failed in the December elections.

Sigma Dos estimates for Andalusia: PSOE 21, PP 19, Podemos 14, C's 4
The same pollster for Catalonia: ECP 14, ERC 11, PSC 7, CDC 5, C's 4, PP 4

Real count starts at 20:00 (GMT). Less than 10 minutes.

[jaichind]

A progressive bloc led by Unidos Podemos may be in a position to govern according to the result of exit poll, Alberto Garzon, leader of United Left, says in televised statement.

[ag]

A progressive bloc led by Unidos Podemos may be in a position to govern according to the result of exit poll, Alberto Garzon, leader of United Left, says in televised statement.

On these results it would be an extremely weak government, that would pretty much have to give Catalans their referendum (remember, the third largest leftist group is ERC).

[Velasco]

A progressive bloc led by Unidos Podemos may be in a position to govern according to the result of exit poll, Alberto Garzon, leader of United Left, says in televised statement.

On these results it would be an extremely weak government, that would pretty much have to give Catalans their referendum (remember, the third largest leftist group is ERC).

UP and PSOE add between 171 and 175 seats, according to GAD3. With that result, ERC would not be necessary, because the hypothetical coalition could rely on PNV.

[jaichind]

GAD3 exit poll with vote shares



PP           30.4%
Podemos  24.8%
PSOE       21.8%
C             13.2%

Here they have PP up 1.7%, Podemos  up 0.4%, PSOE down 0.2%, C down 0.7%

[jaichind]

Do they start counting at 8PM or hold off counting until 9PM?  If the former we should see a lot of the results come in very soon.

[jaichind]

A progressive bloc led by Unidos Podemos may be in a position to govern according to the result of exit poll, Alberto Garzon, leader of United Left, says in televised statement.

On these results it would be an extremely weak government, that would pretty much have to give Catalans their referendum (remember, the third largest leftist group is ERC).

UP and PSOE add between 171 and 175 seats, according to GAD3. With that result, ERC would not be necessary, because the hypothetical coalition could rely on PNV.

I thought PNV was more center-right.  Would that work with them propping up a left bloc government.

[Velasco]

Do they start counting at 8PM or hold off counting until 9PM?  If the former we should see a lot of the results come in very soon.

They hold off in mainland Spain, so stay tunned.

[jaichind]

Some results in

PP           30.92%
PSOE       24.08%
Podomos  20.61% (I think I added them up correctly)
C              9.24%