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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 370646 times)
ag
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« Reply #1025 on: June 26, 2016, 05:22:55 PM »

There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).
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jaichind
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« Reply #1026 on: June 26, 2016, 05:27:45 PM »

99.86% in

PP           33.02%       137
PSOE       22.67%        85
Podemos  21.11%        71 
C             13.05%        32

I doubt it will change from here given how few votes are left.
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ag
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« Reply #1027 on: June 26, 2016, 05:29:10 PM »

99.91%. No change.

So, all these discussions about PNV being partnerable with PP and C may turn out to be academic. Get your pick of ERC, CDC or EH-Bildu.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1028 on: June 26, 2016, 05:33:56 PM »

There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).

That is not a realistic possibility. PSOE and Podemos could have been tried that possibility after the December elections. Iglesias already proposed that agreement in a singular way and PSOE rejected it. The PSOE's Federal Committee held days after the previous election banned deals with Catalan separatist parties. It's more likely that PP, PSOE and C's start tripartite negotiations. Prospects are uncertain, but they will be pressured to prevent a third election.
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ag
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« Reply #1029 on: June 26, 2016, 05:44:51 PM »

There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).

That is not a realistic possibility. PSOE and Podemos could have been tried that possibility after the December elections. Iglesias already proposed that agreement in a singular way and PSOE rejected it. The PSOE's Federal Committee held days after the previous election banned deals with Catalan separatist parties. It's more likely that PP, PSOE and C's start tripartite negotiations. Prospects are uncertain, but they will be pressured to prevent a third election.

Why would they need C in it? They have a majority between the two of them. Why share spoils with C?
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Upsilon
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« Reply #1030 on: June 26, 2016, 05:46:12 PM »

The biggest problem is that the catalan are necessarily in the opposition... This make the formation of any government impossible (except grand coalition).

The catalan supported Aznar then Zapatero but now it's an old story...
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jaichind
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« Reply #1031 on: June 26, 2016, 05:46:56 PM »

Rajoy: “We have won the elections -- we claim the right to govern”
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ag
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« Reply #1032 on: June 26, 2016, 05:47:29 PM »

99.96%.
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ag
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« Reply #1033 on: June 26, 2016, 05:47:58 PM »

Rajoy: “We have won the elections -- we claim the right to govern”

Well, he will govern - till November or December, when the next elections happen.
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Upsilon
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« Reply #1034 on: June 26, 2016, 05:54:17 PM »

And why not a minority government like in Ireland, with a sort of pact where the main opposition party abstains on the budget during 2-3 years ?
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Vosem
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« Reply #1035 on: June 26, 2016, 05:54:48 PM »

Rajoy: “We have won the elections -- we claim the right to govern”

Well, he will govern - till November or December, when the next elections happen.

Well, if the trends from this election continue, PP/C's will have a majority at the next round and then PP will probably dump him (probably replace him with someone ideologically similar, but Rajoy is poisonous at this point). If trends don't continue and there's not some radical unlikely-seeming change, then Rajoy will continue governing after the third election...

There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).

PNV could be convinced to back PSOE for stability's sake, certainly. But would PNV really enter into a coalition with Podemos, whom they are adversarial rivals with in the Basque Country? That seems even less likely than PNV backing the PP.
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Vosem
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« Reply #1036 on: June 26, 2016, 05:56:49 PM »

There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).

That is not a realistic possibility. PSOE and Podemos could have been tried that possibility after the December elections. Iglesias already proposed that agreement in a singular way and PSOE rejected it. The PSOE's Federal Committee held days after the previous election banned deals with Catalan separatist parties. It's more likely that PP, PSOE and C's start tripartite negotiations. Prospects are uncertain, but they will be pressured to prevent a third election.

Why would they need C in it? They have a majority between the two of them. Why share spoils with C?

PP/C's may be more palatable for PSOE to support from the outside than just PP. An outright PP/PSOE coalition seems unlikely even if Sanchez (who is strongly against any cooperation with PP) were to be removed by an internal coup.

Since Sanchez overperformed his polling and has maintained PSOE's status as the preeminent Spanish left, I would imagine he hangs on, which makes the chances of a PP/PSOE agreement -- of any sort -- very minute. Rajoy's leadership has also been bolstered by this election.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1037 on: June 26, 2016, 06:01:39 PM »

I still think a technocrat ia most likely. That way Rajoy can still control PP for embezzlement purposes and C's/PSOE don't get roasted alive.

Remember at some point, people like the ratings agencies and the like will start to put out warnings if yet another election is called (especially as there doesn't seem to be a huge probability that a third election will be any more stable than this one).
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ag
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« Reply #1038 on: June 26, 2016, 06:02:33 PM »

And why not a minority government like in Ireland, with a sort of pact where the main opposition party abstains on the budget during 2-3 years ?

It could be a minority government, of course. But that pretty much means a PP/C coalition with PSOE on the outside. And that is exactly feasibility of what we have been discussing here. Still, it is far from clear that PSOE would abstain.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1039 on: June 26, 2016, 06:04:03 PM »

I'm thinking that Podemos need to sideline Pablo Iglasias atm (Like Grillo has withdrawn from the Star Movement). Like he would still be the leader of the party, but not the candidate up for PM. Velasco any thoughts?
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ag
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« Reply #1040 on: June 26, 2016, 06:04:44 PM »

I still think a technocrat ia most likely. That way Rajoy can still control PP for embezzlement purposes and C's/PSOE don't get roasted alive.

Remember at some point, people like the ratings agencies and the like will start to put out warnings if yet another election is called (especially as there doesn't seem to be a huge probability that a third election will be any more stable than this one).

Makes sense. Felipe should propose a name.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1041 on: June 26, 2016, 06:12:53 PM »

I'm thinking that Podemos need to sideline Pablo Iglasias atm (Like Grillo has withdrawn from the Star Movement). Like he would still be the leader of the party, but not the candidate up for PM. Velasco any thoughts?

It would depend on how they manage the disappointing results and in the continuity of Unidos Podemos as a long-term alliance. I think it's in Podemos and IU interests keeping the alliance or even deepening the ties between the different organisations, including ECP in Catalonia and the other regional alliances. Maybe Ada Colau or even Alberto Garzón (who has good approval rates) could be fitting candidates.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1042 on: June 26, 2016, 07:20:22 PM »

100% in

PP           33.03%       137
PSOE       22.66%        85
Podemos  21.10%        71 
C             13.05%        32
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jaichind
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« Reply #1043 on: June 26, 2016, 07:22:37 PM »

Senate count is mostly done as well

PP              130  (+6)
PSOE           43  (-4)
Podemos      16  (--)
ERC-CATSÍ    10 (+4)
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Velasco
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« Reply #1044 on: June 26, 2016, 08:45:13 PM »
« Edited: June 26, 2016, 09:30:11 PM by Velasco »

Leading party by province. Circles are the 52 municipalities over 125,000 inhabitants. Try to spot the differences with the map posted in page 35.



Results and swing*

PP 33.03% (+4.31%) 137 (+14 seats)

PSOE 22.66% (+0.65%) 85 (-5) seats

Unidos Podemos 21.1% (-3.23%) 71 (=) seats

C's 13.05% (-0.88%) 32 (-8) seats

ERC 2.63% (+0.34%) 9 (=) seats

CDC 2.01% (-0.24%) 8 (=) seats

EAJ-PNV 1.2% (=) 5 (-1) seats

EH Bildu 0.77% (-0.1%) 2 (=) seats

CC-PNC 0.33% (=) 1 (=) seats

Turnout 69.84% (-3.36%)

Raw vote swings:

PP +690,655  PSOE -105,984  UP -1,062,704  C's -376,677

* Percentages and swings referred only to votes cast in Spain. Overseas vote is not counted yet.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1045 on: June 27, 2016, 02:24:26 AM »

Well, that was one considerable waste of time, money and energy.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1046 on: June 27, 2016, 02:53:12 AM »

Just to answer two points I have seen on here :

- the likelihood of PNV joining a right-wing PP/C government is next to nothing due to their previous backing of a PP government being acrimonious (twas a long time ago though) resulting in the unilateral Devolution plan. Furthermore, the elcotral field in the Basque Countries is so competetive being seen as a PP sympathiser would be the final nail in the coffin of PNV hegemony in the region.

- C's will be included in any PP-PSOE coalition because they will have to present this bipartismo deal as some kind of political renewal and C's will suffer like the Libdems did in the next election because of it.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1047 on: June 27, 2016, 03:26:25 AM »

Well, that was one considerable waste of time, money and energy.

Sadly, this is true. Personally I didn't like the PSOE-C's agreement, but in hindsight it would have been preferable that Podemos abstained in the investiture and gave Pedro Sánchez a try. I think that Errejón was somewhat favourable to that option. Podemos would have been as the main opposition force in the Left. Anyway it was very complicated and the increasing hostility between Podemos and C's didn't help the "new politics" and the "democratic regeneration". Also, who could have imagined the impact of Brexit? Finally, it's truly sad that corruption doesn't pay. Fear is much stronger than decency, it seems.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1048 on: June 27, 2016, 04:16:13 AM »
« Edited: June 27, 2016, 04:26:11 AM by Nanwe »

Well, that was one considerable waste of time, money and energy.

Sadly, this is true. Personally I didn't like the PSOE-C's agreement, but in hindsight it would have been preferable that Podemos abstained in the investiture and gave Pedro Sánchez a try. I think that Errejón was somewhat favourable to that option. Podemos would have been as the main opposition force in the Left. Anyway it was very complicated and the increasing hostility between Podemos and C's didn't help the "new politics" and the "democratic regeneration". Also, who could have imagined the impact of Brexit? Finally, it's truly sad that corruption doesn't pay. Fear is much stronger than decency, it seems.

Well, imagine how pissed I am since I really liked the agreement. It wasn't only the Brexit though, it seems - although we won't know until the post-electoral CIS - that Podemos' policy of pacts backfired on them, and only did not lose more votes by leeching them from IU.

Honest to God, I was enjoying the doom-and-gloom cries of peviously-overconfident podemitas on Facebook yesterday, except for this means 4 more years.

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The PNV will not join, but it can support it or abstain, like in '96. The PNV is polling at 17% of the vote in the Basque Country, and although the electoral system there helps them (25 seats each province regardless population), Podemos is a dangerous menace. They'll come first, but the PNV is menaced by Podemos. And this time, the classical PNV-PSE coalition will not do, they need someone else. It's not going to be Bildu, and it's not going to be Podemos ... Only the PP can deliver.

Plus the PNV is opportunistic/pragmatic (depends on POV), so they'll say they got dirty to best defend Euskadi's rights. It tends to work for them. Especially because a left-wing government seem unlikely, except for some weird PSOE-Podemos-Ciudadanos deal.

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It's possible but not likely. Although some voters of C's vote them as a non-radical renewal option, many of their voters are centrists and liberals who like moderation and support their party acting as a media res.

Seeing as how C's lost 8 seats with a 0.8 pp. loss, they are gonna go and demand 1) Electoral reform, 2) Rajoy's head and 3) Some other sh**t, like the National Education Pact, etc.

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On 20D, Podemos (without the regional outfits) and IU added up to 16.4%. Now, they are at 13.3%. The autonomic outfits however, remained at around 7.7%. The autonomist strategy has worked. So the failure is in the infamous ideological axis. UP did not managed the much-desired Carmena effect: The sum of the centre-left vote around them as the only viable option against the PP. In fact, it has probably made them lose both true believers (from IU, unhappy with the forms of the agreement led by Podemos) and moderates, afraid of Iglesias' more frontist proposal.
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ag
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« Reply #1049 on: June 27, 2016, 12:07:47 PM »

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.
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