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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 271572 times)
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« Reply #1100 on: September 06, 2016, 07:15:04 pm »

Velasco or jaichind, can you tell us something more about Galician and Basque elections this month?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1101 on: September 22, 2016, 03:13:52 pm »
« Edited: September 23, 2016, 05:31:42 am by Velasco »

Velasco or jaichind, can you tell us something more about Galician and Basque elections this month?

Apparently there's going to be little surprise or emotion in Basque and Galician elections on next Sunday. Ruling parties are expected to win comfortably in both regions and the only questions left are: 1) Will Alberto Núñez Feijoó (PP) win a majority in Galicia?; and 2) Which will be the main opposition party in Basque and Galician parliaments?

In the Basque Country the Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ-PNV) is polling between 35% and 37% (34.2% in 2012); EH Bildu would come in second place and is polling between 19% and 21% (24.7% in 2012); Elkarrekin Podemos (Podemos, IU, Equo) is polling between 17% and 19%; PSE-EE (PSOE) is between 11% and 12% (18.9% in 2012); PP is between 8% and 10% (11.6% in 2012); and Ciudadanos is between 2% and 3% (some polls say C's will win a seat in Álava and others say it won't).

Main candidates:

EAJ-PNV: Incumbent lehendakari (premier) Íñigo Urkullu.

EH Bildu: Arnaldo Otegi was released from prison in March, on having served his sentence (he was convicted of having tried to reorganize Batasuna, outlawed because of links to ETA). Despite the same sentence disqualified Otegi from holding public office until 2021, EH Bildu proclaimed him candidate. In August the Gipuzkoa provincial electoral commission ruled that Otegi couldn't run. He's campaigning anyway as unofficial candidate, spiritual leader or martyr of the cause.

Elkarrekin Podemos: The purple party pretended to hire an independent and renowned figure to contest the regional election. After a couple of unsuccessful attempts, Podemos picked odontologist Pilar Zabala, who is sister of an alleged ETA activist tortured and killed in 1983 by the GAL paramilitary group.

PSE-EE (PSOE)Sad Idoia Mendia, who replaced former lehendakari Patxi López in the party leadership and was the spokeswoman of the Basque government between 2009 and 2012.

Popular Party: Alfonso Alonso. Mayor of Vitoria between 1999 and 2007, PP spokesman in the Congress of Deputies between 2011 and 2014 and Minister of Health between December 2014 and August 2016.

Ciudadanos: A certain Nicolás de Miguel tops the list in Álava.

In all likelihood Mr Urkullu will be elected for a second term with the support of Basque socialists.

In Galicia PP is polling between 42% and 46% (45.8% in 2012) and would win a majority or would be on the verge of it; En Marea (Podemos, IU, Anova) is polling between 20% and 26% (AGE got 13.9% in 2012); PSOE between 17% and 20% (20.6% in 2012); BNG between 5% and 7% (10.1% in 2012); and Ciudadanos between 3% and 5% (in case oranges get 5% or more in the provinces of A Coruña or Pontevedra, they'll win seats; otherwise they won't).

The options in play are:

1) PP majority: Incumbent Alberto Núñez Feijoó is elected for a third term.
2) PP plurality: a) En Marea, PSOE and BNG add a majority. Luis Villares (En Marea) or Xoaquin Fernández Leiceaga (PSOE) would be elected to head a coalition government, depending on which party comes second. b) C's wins seats in the regional parliament and supports PP candidate in the investiture (no leftwing majority).  

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Velasco
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« Reply #1102 on: September 23, 2016, 05:35:43 am »

El País: "Political deadlock in Spain takes toll on increasingly divided parties"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/09/23/inenglish/1474618460_544509.html

Quote
After two general elections and the threat of a third looming ever closer, a nine-month political stalemate in Spain is taking its toll on all the country’s political parties.

The conservative Popular Party (PP), which won the most votes in the December and June elections, but fell short of a majority both times, is no closer to finding the necessary allies to put together a fully functional government.

   
Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez at a party rally in Bilbao.
Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez at a party rally in Bilbao. FERNANDO DOMINGO-ALDAMA EL PAÍS

After two general elections and the threat of a third looming ever closer, a nine-month political stalemate in Spain is taking its toll on all the country’s political parties.

The conservative Popular Party (PP), which won the most votes in the December and June elections, but fell short of a majority both times, is no closer to finding the necessary allies to put together a fully functional government.
PUBLICIDAD
inRead invented by Teads

    It makes no sense to sell out on our principles or to betray our ideological code

Emiliano García-Page, premier of Castilla-La Mancha

And the main opposition Socialist Party (PSOE) is increasingly divided over whether it should try to cobble together an alternative majority through deals with regional parties – some of which favor independence from Spain – or whether it should simply let acting prime minister Mariano Rajoy form a minority government.

The secretary general of the PSOE, Pedro Sánchez, is becoming increasingly isolated in his defense of the first option. Six of the seven Socialists serving as regional premiers in Spain do not want Sánchez to attempt a coalition with the left-leaning anti-austerity Podemos, the emerging center reform party Ciudadanos, or others.

It would not even be the first time he has tried. Following the elections of December 20, 2015, Sánchez reached a preliminary deal with Ciudadanos, but the combined congressional presence with the Socialists was not enough for a majority and Podemos refused to join the alliance.

The deadlock led to a second national election on June 26, with similar results. This Thursday, at a party event in the Basque city of Bilbao, Sánchez made a public appeal to Pablo Iglesias and Albert Rivera, the leaders of Podemos and Ciudadanos respectively, to “work together to throw out the government of Mariano Rajoy.”

“There are many things that unite us; it’s worth it. Let’s get rid of the cross-vetoes and get a government of change, a government of democratic regeneration, up and running in this country,” said Sánchez, alluding to Podemos and Ciudadanos’ complete refusal to work with one another.

But it seems like a growing chorus of voices within the PSOE is saying enough is enough. Some even hope that the outcome of the regional elections being held this Sunday in Galicia and the Basque Country, where the PSOE is not expected to do well, will make Sánchez change his mind (...)
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Velasco
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« Reply #1103 on: September 23, 2016, 05:52:55 am »
« Edited: September 23, 2016, 06:27:47 am by Velasco »

Strain in Podemos; Rajoy sits back letting things go

Quote
Podemos, which is made up of dozens of grassroots organizations, is also feeling the strain after nine months of deadlock. On Thursday, party leader Pablo Iglesias issued a statement that underscored his growing rift with the party’s number two official, Iñigo Errejón, over the issue of whether to negotiate with the Socialists or not.

“As long as I am secretary general, we are going to talk to the PSOE on an equal footing,” insisted Iglesias.

Meanwhile, the acting prime minister of Spain appears to be sitting back and letting things happen.

Close aides said that Rajoy is neither surprised nor particularly alarmed at this latest attempt by the Socialist leader to put together an alternative governing coalition “with separatists and extremists.”

Rajoy has described this plan as “nonsense” but admitted that “mathematically it could work” in terms of congressional seats.

The acting PM has also admitted that he has no plan B to attract allies. Instead, he has adopted a do-nothing strategy while accusing other parties – particularly the PSOE – of the deadlock because of their refusal to support him.

If nothing changes, Spaniards will be called to vote in a third election scheduled for Christmas Day. Polls are predicting a historically low turnout, reflecting taxpayers’ growing weariness with their politicians.



Kiko Llaneras' prediction for Basque Country elections (statistic model based on polls)

EAJ-PNV 27 (26-29) seats; EH Bildu 16 (15-18) seats; Elkarrekin Podemos 15 (13-16) seats; PSE-EE (PSOE) 9 (7-10) seats; PP 7 (6-8) seats; C's 1 (0-1) seat

Results in 2012 (Total 75 seats): PNV 27, EH Bildu 21; PSE-EE 16; PP 10; UPyD 1

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/09/22/ratio/1474570444_224041.html

Prediction for Galicia

PP 40 (38-42) seats; En Marea 17 (15-19); PSOE 15 (13-16); BNG 2 (1-4); C's 0 (0-1)

PP majority: 84% chance. Leftwing majority: 11% chance.

Results in 2012 (Total 75 seats): PP 41; PSOE 18; AGE 9; BNG 7

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/09/22/ratio/1474503886_481732.html
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jaichind
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« Reply #1104 on: September 23, 2016, 06:00:48 am »

Is not the Basque Country elections one way for PP to get closer to a majority?  Whereas the 2012 results gave BNP and PSOE a majority of seats now that same combination most likely will not get a majority.  BNP will need PP's support to pass a budget.  If so then PP can then demand BNP back PP at the center.  If this were to take place would this not put more pressure one PSOE in the center ?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1105 on: September 23, 2016, 06:32:05 am »
« Edited: September 23, 2016, 07:58:43 am by Velasco »

Is not the Basque Country elections one way for PP to get closer to a majority?  Whereas the 2012 results gave BNP and PSOE a majority of seats now that same combination most likely will not get a majority.  BNP will need PP's support to pass a budget.  If so then PP can then demand BNP back PP at the center.  If this were to take place would this not put more pressure one PSOE in the center ?

PNV spokepersons have stated clearly that in neither case they will support Mariano Rajoy in Madrid.

Actually the PNV candidate doesn't need PP to be elected, due to the particular regulation of the Basque parliament, according to which negative votes don't count in the investiture. In case PSOE seats are not enough to add a majority to the PNV in the first vote, Mr Urkullu could be easily elected in a second vote. The only way to prevent it is that an alternative candidate could get more votes; the only option -dismissed by the polls- would be one backed by EH Bildu and Podemos -in case both parties could reach an agreement-. As for the budget and other legislation, it won't be an issue. PNV has a long record in negotiations with other parties; in the past legislature they governed in minority backed mainly by PSOE, but they occasionally passed legislation with the support of EH Bildu. PNV will apply what Zapatero called once "variable geometry", that is to say, reach deals with one party or another depending on issues.

I assume that "BNP" means "Basque Nationalist Party"
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jaichind
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« Reply #1106 on: September 23, 2016, 06:42:58 am »


I assume that "BNP" means "Basque Nationalist Party"

Yes. Sorry for bad use of their abbreviation.  I know it should be EAJ/PNV but I just typed what came to my mind since in English they are the Basque Nationalist Party.   

Thanks for your info on how the Basque Parliament works. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #1107 on: September 25, 2016, 08:51:08 am »

Another angle where today's election might affect national alignment is if PSOE does poorly then that could trigger a coup against Sanchez within PSOE which in turn might alter the PSOE policy toward PP with respect to abstaining in the next vote of confidence.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1108 on: September 25, 2016, 01:13:12 pm »
« Edited: September 25, 2016, 01:18:11 pm by Mike88 »

Polls close in Galicia and Pais Vasco. Exit polls released:

Galicia

PP: 38-41 seats
En Marea: 14-16 seats
PSOE: 14 -16 seats
BNG: 5-6 seats
C's: 0-1 seats

Pais Vasco

PNV: 27-30 seats
Bildu: 16-18 seats
UP: 13-15 seats
PSOE: 8-10 seats
PP: 7-8 seats
C's: 0-1 seats
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Mike88
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« Reply #1109 on: September 25, 2016, 01:56:56 pm »

10% counted in Galicia

PP: 56,6% 47
PSOE: 17,8% 14
En Marea: 12,3% 8
BNG: 7,8% 6
C's: 2,4% 0

Nothing yet from Pais Vasco
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jaichind
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« Reply #1110 on: September 25, 2016, 02:08:54 pm »

Where are links to results ?
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Mike88
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« Reply #1111 on: September 25, 2016, 02:10:27 pm »

24% counted in Galicia:

PP: 53,5% 45
PSOE: 17,8% 13
En Marea: 14,7% 12
BNG: 8,0% 5
C's: 2,7% 0

50% counted in Pais Vasco:

PNV: 37,5% 28
Bildu: 21,5% 17
UP: 14,7% 12
PSOE: 12,2% 9
PP: 10,0% 9
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Mike88
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« Reply #1112 on: September 25, 2016, 02:12:44 pm »

Where are links to results ?

Galicia

http://resultados2016.xunta.gal/11AU/DAU11999CM.htm?lang=gl

Pais Vasco

http://www.euskadielecciones.eus/resultados/indexambito?pAmbito=00000&pModoVisualizacion=1
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jaichind
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« Reply #1113 on: September 25, 2016, 02:14:54 pm »

Looks like PP over-performing exit polls in  Galicia so far
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jaichind
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« Reply #1114 on: September 25, 2016, 02:16:59 pm »

35% counted in Galicia:

PP: 51.49% 44
PSOE: 17.95% 13
En Marea: 15.67% 12
BNG: 8.12% 6
C's: 2.88% 0
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Mike88
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« Reply #1115 on: September 25, 2016, 02:18:15 pm »

Looks like PP over-performing exit polls in  Galicia so far

If Vigo, Coruña, Pontevedra and Santiago hold up, yes.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1116 on: September 25, 2016, 02:19:38 pm »

65% counted in Pais Vasco:

PNV: 37,4% 28
Bildu: 21,7% 17
UP: 14,6% 12
PSOE: 12,1% 9
PP: 10,1% 9
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Mike88
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« Reply #1117 on: September 25, 2016, 02:21:53 pm »

40% counted in Galicia

PP: 51,6% 42
PSOE: 18,0% 14
En Marea: 16,0% 12
BNG: 8,1% 6
C's: 2,9% 0

En Marea closing in on PSOE.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1118 on: September 25, 2016, 02:33:23 pm »

56% counted in Galicia:

PP: 49,7% 42
PSOE: 18,1% 14
En Marea: 17,3% 14
BNG: 8,2% 5
C's: 3,1% 0

88% counted in Pais Vasco

PNV: 37,5% 29
Bildu: 21,6% 17
UP: 14,8% 11
PSOE: 12,0% 9
PP: 10,1% 9
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Mike88
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« Reply #1119 on: September 25, 2016, 02:40:35 pm »

65% counted in Galicia

PP: 49,2% 42
En Marea: 17,7% 14
PSOE: 18,1% 13
BNG: 8,3% 6
C's: 3,2% 0

"Sorpasso" in Galicia
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jaichind
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« Reply #1120 on: September 25, 2016, 02:50:51 pm »

77% counted in Galicia:

PP: 48.52% 41
PSOE: 18.04% 14
En Marea: 18.22% 14
BNG: 8.33% 6
C's: 3.23% 0

Convergence to exit polls although it seems PP will outperform the exit polls vote share even if it does not exceed exit polls in terms of seats.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1121 on: September 25, 2016, 02:56:14 pm »

98.81% in Basque Country

PNV 37.59%   28
EH Bildu 21.28 %  18
EP  14.82%  11   
PSE-EE 11.93 %  9
PP 10.19%  9
C´S   2.02%  0
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jaichind
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« Reply #1122 on: September 25, 2016, 03:08:16 pm »

90% counted in Galicia:

PP: 47.98% 42
En Marea: 18.68% 14
PSOE: 17.89% 13
BNG: 8.36% 6
C's: 3.32% 0
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Velasco
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« Reply #1123 on: September 25, 2016, 03:31:44 pm »

Basque Country (99.9%)
EAJ/PNV 29; EH Bildu 17; Podemos 11; PSE-EE 9; PP 9

Galicia (95.4%)
PP 41; En Marea 14; PSOE 14; BNG 6
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« Reply #1124 on: September 25, 2016, 07:15:31 pm »

Quite an underperformance for UP (EP) in Euskadi, especially in Gipuzcoa, but I guess vote utile for Bildu played in full, as we could expect from the final polls. Interesting that, for now, both PNV-PSE or PNV-PP would have majorities. But with this mandate, I guess PNV will govern in minority making deals on the way.

In Galicia, slight underperformance also for En Marea, barely topping PSOE in votes but on par in seats. PP actually strengthening their share from 2012, and C's a non-entity.
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