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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 271869 times)
Mike88
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« Reply #1200 on: March 13, 2017, 05:58:04 pm »

I agree with you on Metroscopia. Comparing with other polling firms, they are overpolling C's and in the past they overpolled heavily the PSOE. I think they were the only pollster to put the PSOE ahead of PP during the 2011-2015 legislature.

Personally i follow 3 polling companies in Spain: Celeste-Tel, NC Report and CIS. For me, these 3 are the most accurate. And speaking of Celeste-Tel, they just released a new poll, and it has completely different results in comparison with Metroscopia:

35.6% (+0.2) 148/150 PP
22.1% (+1.0)     80/83 PSOE
19.3% ( -0.2)     65/66 UP
12.1% (+0.1)     26/28 C's
  2.8%                     10 ERC
  1.6%                       7 PDC
  1.2%                       5 PNV
  0.9%                    2/3 Bildu
  0.3%                       1 CC
  4.1%                          Others

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Velasco
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« Reply #1201 on: March 13, 2017, 06:35:33 pm »

I don't trust NC Report and Celeste-Tel very much and the PP seems overpolled in their last releases. Probably it's better taking into account the CIS and a mix of the other pollsters (including SigmaDos, GESOP, Invymark, MyWord etcetera) in order to make and average and try to spot the trend.
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coloniac
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« Reply #1202 on: March 13, 2017, 06:58:49 pm »

Have ERC basically overtaken the Convergents in Catalunya as the leading nationalist power in the polls? How much has it to do with the latter´s rebranding?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1203 on: March 13, 2017, 07:08:09 pm »
« Edited: March 13, 2017, 09:12:06 pm by Velasco »

Have ERC basically overtaken the Convergents in Catalunya as the leading nationalist power in the polls? How much has it to do with the latter´s rebranding?

Pretty much, yes. Convergencia 's rebranding looks like a desperate attempt to put a corrupt past behind.


The last news is that High Court of Justice if Catalonia has banned Artur Mas from public posts for a period of two years. The reason is that Mas, by that time regional premier, organised that informal independence referendum held in Catalonia in November 2014. It's the first time that a chief of a regional government is sentenced for disobedience of a judicial resolution. Even though Mr Mas is going to appeal, electoral legislation prevents that he can run for an office. That's a problem for Mr Mas, because he had the intent of running for the PDECat (formerly CDC or Convergència) in the next regional election, In case Artur Mas was still a member of the Parliament of Catalonia (he was elected in the JxSI list), he could have retained his seat because the sentence would not have been executed until the appeal was solved. Another two top regional officials were sentenced: Vice premier Joana Ortega and Minister of Education Irene Rigau. The latter is the only one who currently holds a public office as member of the regional parliament.   
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Mike88
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« Reply #1204 on: March 18, 2017, 11:50:26 am »

DYM poll for the Congress and the PSOE leadership:

Congress:

31.0% PP
20.0% PSOE
19.9% UP
16.2% C's

PSOE leadership:

Img


Congress vote with the different PSOE candidates:

If Lopéz was leader:

29.8% PP
25.2% PSOE
19.8% UP
13.6% C's

If Sanchéz was leader:

29.9% PP
24.5% PSOE
17.8% UP
16.0% C's

If Díaz was leader:

29.7% PP
24.2% UP
18.9% PSOE
15.4% C's

Poll conducted between 7 and 15 March. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of ±3.1%

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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #1205 on: March 18, 2017, 03:38:47 pm »

LOL Diaz.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1206 on: March 19, 2017, 11:43:48 am »

Election projection by Jaime Miquel (political analist):

Vote share:
Img


Seats in Congress:
Img


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Mike88
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« Reply #1207 on: March 19, 2017, 11:47:23 am »

Poll from Invymark to La Sexta:

32.6% PP
21.9% UP
21.0% PSOE
13.4% C's

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MaxQue
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« Reply #1208 on: March 20, 2017, 01:41:31 am »

Good to see when crypto-PP Diaz is polling badly.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1209 on: March 20, 2017, 01:58:22 pm »

NC Report poll for La Razón newspaper:

Img


Poll conducted between 13 and 17 March. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.1%

The PP is highly overrated in this poll. This poll has 58.5% turnout... For Spanish levels that's very low and probably not very accurate. But put it in the average.

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1210 on: March 20, 2017, 02:03:52 pm »

as "semi-local" mike said, could be an outlier but at some point, i guess, the PP is going to become strong enough cause all other options are more difficult.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1211 on: March 20, 2017, 02:18:18 pm »

as "semi-local" mike said, could be an outlier but at some point, i guess, the PP is going to become strong enough cause all other options are more difficult.
Indeed. There are two important political question at the moment. The first is the budget. Spanish media have been saying that negotiations for this year budget are shaky and that Mr Rajoy doesn't know how it's going to end. The other one is the longshoreman crisis. Spain may have to pay a big fine to the EU if it doesn't solve the situation. C's abstained in parliament vote about this and the PP law failed. Don't know if this will have an impact in C's voting numbers. Let's see what happens.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1212 on: March 21, 2017, 01:41:16 am »


PSOE leadership:

Img


Congress vote with the different PSOE candidates:

If Lopéz was leader:

29.8% PP
25.2% PSOE
19.8% UP
13.6% C's

If Sanchéz was leader:

29.9% PP
24.5% PSOE
17.8% UP
16.0% C's

If Díaz was leader:

29.7% PP
24.2% UP
18.9% PSOE
15.4% C's

Poll conducted between 7 and 15 March. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of ±3.1%

Link.




Let me clarify things: only PSOE members or activists who are up-to-date with the payment of quotas are eligible to vote in the leadership contest or primary election. This poll measures the popularity of pre-candidates among voters ("votantes") and supporters ("simpatizantes"). Susana Díaz seems to be quite unpopular among them, probably because of her role in the coup d'ètat which dethroned Mr Sánchez. Sadly the contest is not open to such groups. Only the approx 180,000 PSOE members can vote and the chances of Mrs Díaz are higher among them. Anyway thanks for the updates, MIke88 Wink

Meanwhile, Rajoy government suffers a setback in parliament and threats with new elections:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/03/20/inenglish/1489999534_081492.html

Quote
   

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has warned that he is ready to do “the impossible” in order to see this political term through, but that he needs “a bit of political stability in order to do so.”

Speaking on Sunday, Rajoy’s comments came after a week that saw opposition parties in the Spanish Congress stonewall a government decree aiming to liberalize the dock workers sector, allowing companies to hire non-unionized employees. Brussels has been pressuring Spain to bring the industry in line with EU legislation, and Madrid is facing hefty fines for failing to do so (...)

The government decree failed because C's wanted to take revenge of PP's disdain and little humiliations to them... and well, because the blue party doesn't want to enforce the agreements on corruption and transparency with the orange party.

Quote
But his administration is facing further trouble from an opposition that has promised not to let Rajoy rest on his laurels after he was reinstated late last year thanks to tacit help from the Socialists. The latter have vowed to exercise active opposition throughout the term, while the PP’s only semi-reliable ally, the reform party Ciudadanos, has lately taken a step back due to disagreements over anti-corruption policy.

This was a little victory for Podemos in parliament, too.
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coloniac
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« Reply #1213 on: March 21, 2017, 06:25:09 am »

Pregunta tíos, why have Ada Colau and Podem fallen out, only for her new party to join the Podemos national structure again?

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/03/20/actualidad/1490015134_454408.html

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tack50
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« Reply #1214 on: March 26, 2017, 02:03:20 pm »

Pregunta tíos, why have Ada Colau and Podem fallen out, only for her new party to join the Podemos national structure again?


No idea, Podemos's coalitions are very heterogeneous. From what I've heard it might have to do with Colau&co. being more pro independence than Podem. (which is part of Podemos, which can't really defend independence because it's a national party)
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Mike88
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« Reply #1215 on: March 26, 2017, 02:04:38 pm »
« Edited: March 26, 2017, 02:13:13 pm by Mike88 »

Susana Díaz presented today her candidacy for the PSOE leadership. In a rally in Madrid attended by more than 7,000 people and by many high profile PSOE leaders like Felipe Gonzaléz, J R Zapatero and others, Díaz said she wants put the PSOE back in the Spanish government and also achieve reforms and pacts with the PP and refuses that the PSOE should "imitate" Podemos.

Img
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Mike88
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« Reply #1216 on: March 27, 2017, 10:33:55 am »

The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.

Img


Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful. Sad
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warandwar
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« Reply #1217 on: March 27, 2017, 10:43:10 am »

The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.

Img


Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful. Sad
Why are you expecting anti- capitalists to play by the ridiculous notions of what constitutes political activity in a capitalist society?
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #1218 on: March 27, 2017, 12:56:33 pm »

The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.

Img


Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful. Sad
Why are you expecting anti- capitalists to play by the ridiculous notions of what constitutes political activity in a capitalist society?
Not to mention, if Spain would just allow a referendum, none of this would be happening.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1219 on: March 27, 2017, 01:22:42 pm »

The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.

Img


Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful. Sad
Why are you expecting anti- capitalists to play by the ridiculous notions of what constitutes political activity in a capitalist society?
Not to mention, if Spain would just allow a referendum, none of this would be happening.
The problem is that the constitution bars any attempt that threatens the territorial union of Spain. To change that, i believe all autonomous regions must say yes to the constitutional change and that's not going to happen. It's a difficult situation to be resolved.
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tack50
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« Reply #1220 on: March 27, 2017, 02:45:57 pm »

The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.


Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful. Sad
Why are you expecting anti- capitalists to play by the ridiculous notions of what constitutes political activity in a capitalist society?
Not to mention, if Spain would just allow a referendum, none of this would be happening.
The problem is that the constitution bars any attempt that threatens the territorial union of Spain. To change that, i believe all autonomous regions must say yes to the constitutional change and that's not going to happen. It's a difficult situation to be resolved.

No; autonomous regions don't have to ratify the change (in fact they play no role at all). The process to reform the constitution would require the "aggravated" reform process (equivalent to rewriting the constitution, though partial ammendments can also be proposed through this method) as it'd require repealing or ammending article 2:

The Constitution is based on the indissoluble unity of the Spanish Nation, the
common and indivisible homeland of all Spaniards,
and it recognizes and guarantees the
right to self-government of the nationalities and regions of which it is composed and the
solidarity among them all.


To reform or repeal article 2 the following process must be followed:

  • First the Congress of Deputies and the Senate must approve the ammendment by a 2/3 majority each
  • Then both houses are dissolved and a new general election is called
  • After the general election both newly elected houses must ratify the ammendment
  • Finally a referendum in all of Spain is called (no special requirements, just more "yes" than "no" votes)

After that Catalonia could hold their referendum. Not like it matters as that process would basically require PP's approval, which they'd never give. Spain's unity and all.

In theory a non-binding referendum could be passed against the government's will with a PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV abstaining, but again, PSOE would never opt for that, and I'd be surprised if Catalan nationalists were happy with a non binding referendum (I guess Congress could pass a binding one, then have it inmediately shot down by the constitutional court)
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Mike88
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« Reply #1221 on: March 27, 2017, 03:00:46 pm »

Thanks for the correction, tack50 Smiley

I wrote that about the autonomies because i recall reading an article that said Andalucia or Extremadura would never accept Catalonia independence because of their economic disadvantage from the rest of Spain. But i clearly misinterpreted.

Basically, there's no simple solution to this. Although i'm quite convinced that if such referendum was held, the no to independence would win. But that's just my hunch.


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coloniac
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« Reply #1222 on: March 27, 2017, 03:28:22 pm »

There is a fundamental contradiction in the Constitution though, in that it has allowed both Article 2 and the possibility of seperatists to win a majority in the Generalitat to co-exist. The separatist majority is as legal as Article 2.
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tack50
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« Reply #1223 on: March 27, 2017, 04:05:45 pm »

There is a fundamental contradiction in the Constitution though, in that it has allowed both Article 2 and the possibility of seperatists to win a majority in the Generalitat to co-exist. The separatist majority is as legal as Article 2.

It's not like there was an alternative. I think some countries do ban parties whose objective is independence, but Spain doesn't.

Also, Catalonia's flirt with independence is very recient. The Basque Country was the most pro independnece of the 2 traditionally.

Finally, there are regionalist parties that do not want independence. The best examples of this being the centre-right CC (Canary Islands) with 1/15 Canarian seats and the centre-left wing PRC from Cantabria (no seats, but they do hold the governor there)
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coloniac
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« Reply #1224 on: March 27, 2017, 04:53:01 pm »

There is a fundamental contradiction in the Constitution though, in that it has allowed both Article 2 and the possibility of seperatists to win a majority in the Generalitat to co-exist. The separatist majority is as legal as Article 2.

It's not like there was an alternative. I think some countries do ban parties whose objective is independence, but Spain doesn't.

Also, Catalonia's flirt with independence is very recient. The Basque Country was the most pro independnece of the 2 traditionally.

Finally, there are regionalist parties that do not want independence. The best examples of this being the centre-right CC (Canary Islands) with 1/15 Canarian seats and the centre-left wing PRC from Cantabria (no seats, but they do hold the governor there)

Agreed on all three points. I was trying to present the legal view of the Catalan separatists though, who believe that their victory in 2015 served the purpose of contradicting the legality of Article 2, and that any ruling by the Constitutional Court is skewered by the fact that the Senate, which is elected in a manner that favours the unionists, nominates the judges. Their last point is hardly illegitimate.

Convergencia voted with the Constitutionalists in the referendum IIRC, a look back on that

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