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tack50
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« Reply #1225 on: March 30, 2017, 01:09:18 pm »

Apparently things are slowly but surely progressing in Murcia. Maybe they'll get rid of the allegedly corrupt PP governor there after all?

Then again if they go to new elections either it's a hung parliament and there's another PP+Cs government, even if the governor might be judged for corruption, or it's a PP absolute majority (Murcia is very conservative, PP came within 1 seat of an overall majority)

A PSOE+Cs+Podemos government wouldn't last more than 10 minutes considering how much Cs and Podemos hate each other, and there's no way PSOE+Podemos gets a majority in Murcia
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Mike88
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« Reply #1226 on: March 30, 2017, 01:23:29 pm »

Apparently things are slowly but surely progressing in Murcia. Maybe they'll get rid of the allegedly corrupt PP governor there after all?

Then again if they go to new elections either it's a hung parliament and there's another PP+Cs government, even if the governor might be judged for corruption, or it's a PP absolute majority (Murcia is very conservative, PP came within 1 seat of an overall majority)

A PSOE+Cs+Podemos government wouldn't last more than 10 minutes considering how much Cs and Podemos hate each other, and there's no way PSOE+Podemos gets a majority in Murcia
Indeed, the last poll for Murcia, from earlier this month, shows the PP gaining more than C's and PSOE and Podemos getting a lower result than in 2011:

39.1% PP
22.9% PSOE
12.9% C's
12.0% Podemos
 3.6% IU

The poll was made in the beginning of this scandal. Giving a big margin of error, due to Spain's not so accurate polls, could we be seeing parts of the electorate swinging to the PP because they want a more stable government, even thought the electorate knows they are sleaze?
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tack50
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« Reply #1227 on: March 30, 2017, 02:05:46 pm »

Apparently things are slowly but surely progressing in Murcia. Maybe they'll get rid of the allegedly corrupt PP governor there after all?

Then again if they go to new elections either it's a hung parliament and there's another PP+Cs government, even if the governor might be judged for corruption, or it's a PP absolute majority (Murcia is very conservative, PP came within 1 seat of an overall majority)

A PSOE+Cs+Podemos government wouldn't last more than 10 minutes considering how much Cs and Podemos hate each other, and there's no way PSOE+Podemos gets a majority in Murcia
Indeed, the last poll for Murcia, from earlier this month, shows the PP gaining more than C's and PSOE and Podemos getting a lower result than in 2011:

39.1% PP
22.9% PSOE
12.9% C's
12.0% Podemos
 3.6% IU

The poll was made in the beginning of this scandal. Giving a big margin of error, due to Spain's not so accurate polls, could we be seeing parts of the electorate swinging to the PP because they want a more stable government, even thought the electorate knows they are sleaze?

Probably, and I'd argue there was something similar to some extent between December 2015 and June 2016 at the national level(though lower turnout and Podemos losing a big chunk of voters were more important factors)

Interestingly though, Murcia actually reformed their electoral law in 2015, right after the regional election. Now they only have a single at-large constituency with a 3% hurdle, as opposed to the previous 5 constituencies with a 5% hurdle.

With the poll you posted, that would yield this parliament:

PP 20 (-2)

PSOE 12 (-1)
Cs 6 (+2).
Podemos 6 (=)
IU 1 (+1)

So, almost certainly a hung parliament. Back on the day PP could get the 48% or so required for an overall majority, but probably not now, especially not with such a candidate.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1228 on: April 01, 2017, 03:12:14 am »

Apparently things are slowly but surely progressing in Murcia. Maybe they'll get rid of the allegedly corrupt PP governor there after all?

Then again if they go to new elections either it's a hung parliament and there's another PP+Cs government, even if the governor might be judged for corruption, or it's a PP absolute majority (Murcia is very conservative, PP came within 1 seat of an overall majority)

A PSOE+Cs+Podemos government wouldn't last more than 10 minutes considering how much Cs and Podemos hate each other, and there's no way PSOE+Podemos gets a majority in Murcia
Indeed, the last poll for Murcia, from earlier this month, shows the PP gaining more than C's and PSOE and Podemos getting a lower result than in 2011:

39.1% PP
22.9% PSOE
12.9% C's
12.0% Podemos
 3.6% IU

The poll was made in the beginning of this scandal. Giving a big margin of error, due to Spain's not so accurate polls, could we be seeing parts of the electorate swinging to the PP because they want a more stable government, even thought the electorate knows they are sleaze?

Probably, and I'd argue there was something similar to some extent between December 2015 and June 2016 at the national level(though lower turnout and Podemos losing a big chunk of voters were more important factors)

Interestingly though, Murcia actually reformed their electoral law in 2015, right after the regional election. Now they only have a single at-large constituency with a 3% hurdle, as opposed to the previous 5 constituencies with a 5% hurdle.

With the poll you posted, that would yield this parliament:

PP 20 (-2)

PSOE 12 (-1)
Cs 6 (+2).
Podemos 6 (=)
IU 1 (+1)

So, almost certainly a hung parliament. Back on the day PP could get the 48% or so required for an overall majority, but probably not now, especially not with such a candidate.

Depends on who the PP candidate would be after the election, no? C's won't want to govern with PSOE and Podemos (or IU), but it would be a huge problem for them if they support Pedro Antonio Sánchez. A friend from Murcia says the main reason why Sánchez doesn't go is because Válcarcel (former Murcia President) has too many things to cover that could go public if Sánchez speaks or something along those lines.
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tack50
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« Reply #1229 on: April 01, 2017, 07:06:04 am »

Apparently things are slowly but surely progressing in Murcia. Maybe they'll get rid of the allegedly corrupt PP governor there after all?

Then again if they go to new elections either it's a hung parliament and there's another PP+Cs government, even if the governor might be judged for corruption, or it's a PP absolute majority (Murcia is very conservative, PP came within 1 seat of an overall majority)

A PSOE+Cs+Podemos government wouldn't last more than 10 minutes considering how much Cs and Podemos hate each other, and there's no way PSOE+Podemos gets a majority in Murcia
Indeed, the last poll for Murcia, from earlier this month, shows the PP gaining more than C's and PSOE and Podemos getting a lower result than in 2011:

39.1% PP
22.9% PSOE
12.9% C's
12.0% Podemos
 3.6% IU

The poll was made in the beginning of this scandal. Giving a big margin of error, due to Spain's not so accurate polls, could we be seeing parts of the electorate swinging to the PP because they want a more stable government, even thought the electorate knows they are sleaze?

Probably, and I'd argue there was something similar to some extent between December 2015 and June 2016 at the national level(though lower turnout and Podemos losing a big chunk of voters were more important factors)

Interestingly though, Murcia actually reformed their electoral law in 2015, right after the regional election. Now they only have a single at-large constituency with a 3% hurdle, as opposed to the previous 5 constituencies with a 5% hurdle.

With the poll you posted, that would yield this parliament:

PP 20 (-2)

PSOE 12 (-1)
Cs 6 (+2).
Podemos 6 (=)
IU 1 (+1)

So, almost certainly a hung parliament. Back on the day PP could get the 48% or so required for an overall majority, but probably not now, especially not with such a candidate.

Depends on who the PP candidate would be after the election, no? C's won't want to govern with PSOE and Podemos (or IU), but it would be a huge problem for them if they support Pedro Antonio Sánchez. A friend from Murcia says the main reason why Sánchez doesn't go is because Válcarcel (former Murcia President) has too many things to cover that could go public if Sánchez speaks or something along those lines.

No idea about that, but if PP are willing do drop Sánchez (the national branch have actually told them to do so, but the regional branch refuses) the Cs+PP pact will start again. If not, hung parliament and repated elections until either PP drops their candidate, PSOE+IU+Podemos get a majority, or PP gets a majority.
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tack50
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« Reply #1230 on: April 01, 2017, 07:10:28 am »

Also, there is finally a date for the PSOE primaries. Here's the calendar:

20th April-4th of May: Candidates collect signatures to become formal candidates
28th of April: Census closes
21st of May: the day people vote

Also, the governor of Castille La Mancha has said he and many others will link their future to the result of the primaries.

After that I am hoping Sanchez wins in a landslide, if only to see their reaction XD
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« Reply #1231 on: April 01, 2017, 12:07:14 pm »

Could anybody tell me something about the relationship between C's and the far right? I read something about it and found it incredibly weird that any far right person would be attracted to them.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1232 on: April 01, 2017, 12:10:25 pm »

Could anybody tell me something about the relationship between C's and the far right? I read something about it and found it incredibly weird that any far right person would be attracted to them.

there isn't a strong far-right party in spain and if you are "against the system" and not an enemy of "socialism" (whatever), i guess a case for - like we say over here - a crossover-alliance could be made.
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coloniac
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« Reply #1233 on: April 01, 2017, 12:54:06 pm »

Could anybody tell me something about the relationship between C's and the far right? I read something about it and found it incredibly weird that any far right person would be attracted to them.

If you understand why the Flemish consider Défi/FDF far right, then you maybe there have the closest analogy I can find.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1234 on: April 02, 2017, 05:12:03 am »

Could anybody tell me something about the relationship between C's and the far right? I read something about it and found it incredibly weird that any far right person would be attracted to them.

It's not. But like UPyD, the party is not terribly favourable to decentralisation (although C's not as much as UPyD) and in Spain centralisation is very strongly associated to the right-wing, so a party that does not support the status quo but even talks of revoking certain regional powers (like the concierto in Navarra and the Basque Country) is perceived as to the right of the PP in those parts. The exception being Catalonia for obvious reasons.

Also, in the case of Galicia, it did not help that they picked as candidate a women tied to the very right-wing Interconomía/Libertad Digital media group.

In any case, people who you would usually consider far-right are usually loyal voters of the PP, even if they are not too happy to vote for 'Maricomplejines' Rajoy. The PP makes sure not to allow the growth of any party to its right.
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tack50
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« Reply #1235 on: April 02, 2017, 06:20:18 am »

Could anybody tell me something about the relationship between C's and the far right? I read something about it and found it incredibly weird that any far right person would be attracted to them.

It's not. But like UPyD, the party is not terribly favourable to decentralisation (although C's not as much as UPyD) and in Spain centralisation is very strongly associated to the right-wing, so a party that does not support the status quo but even talks of revoking certain regional powers (like the concierto in Navarra and the Basque Country) is perceived as to the right of the PP in those parts. The exception being Catalonia for obvious reasons.

Also, in the case of Galicia, it did not help that they picked as candidate a women tied to the very right-wing Interconomía/Libertad Digital media group.

In any case, people who you would usually consider far-right are usually loyal voters of the PP, even if they are not too happy to vote for 'Maricomplejines' Rajoy. The PP makes sure not to allow the growth of any party to its right.

Yeah. The closest thing to a far-right party is VOX, which came within 1500 votes of getting a seat in the 2014 European Parliament elections (got 1.57% of the vote), but since then they've gone downhill fast. Currently they have 0.2% of the vote and only 22 councillors in town halls (out of more than 67 000).

There might be demand for a party further right than PP, and a poll found out that if former Prime Minister Aznar (a Rajoy critic from the right) founded his own party and ran again he would get up to 15% of the vote and 51 seats. (coming in 4th; behind PP, PSOE and Podemos, but above Cs).

However Rajoy and the PP seem to be very good at avoiding the formation of far right parties, probably appealing to "if you don't vote for us Podemos wins so vote tactically for us". Had VOX kept their results from 2014, they'd have 1 seat for Madrid (they got 3.7% of the vote there)
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« Reply #1236 on: April 02, 2017, 07:07:31 am »

Why Murcia so conservative? It's right next to Andalusia which is more left leaning and it was a heavily republican area during the Spanish civil war
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1237 on: April 02, 2017, 07:23:01 am »
« Edited: April 02, 2017, 07:26:18 am by Nanwe »

Why Murcia so conservative? It's right next to Andalusia which is more left leaning and it was a heavily republican area during the Spanish civil war

Andalusia is left-leaning but eastern Andalusia a lot less, particularly Almería and to a lesser extent Granada. In these parts the typical jornalero-señorito divide existing in Sevilla for instance is a lot less prominent, with many more small land owners. The same applies to Murcia. Then there's the fact that Murcia is home to a large number of very religious and conservative groups, like the kikos and the Opus Dei. A Murcia friend likes to joke that Murcia is Spain's Alabama.

Then there's also the issue of how poor the Murcian economy was doing in the 90s - rioting over industrial closures led to people setting the regional assembly on fire - when the PSOE governed and then was followed by the tourism boom from the late 90s on, coinciding with the PP administration, and hence the economic improvement was tied to the PP. Murcia is closer economically and socially to Valencia than Almería, but without the nasty Catalanist-antiCatalanist cleavage.

Yeah. The closest thing to a far-right party is VOX, which came within 1500 votes of getting a seat in the 2014 European Parliament elections (got 1.57% of the vote), but since then they've gone downhill fast. Currently they have 0.2% of the vote and only 22 councillors in town halls (out of more than 67 000).

There might be demand for a party further right than PP, and a poll found out that if former Prime Minister Aznar (a Rajoy critic from the right) founded his own party and ran again he would get up to 15% of the vote and 51 seats. (coming in 4th; behind PP, PSOE and Podemos, but above Cs).

True, but even then it would not be a right-wing populist party as we see them in Europe, but rather a hard-right party, like a tougher, nastier, more Thatcherite version of the PP, not a Front National.
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tack50
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« Reply #1238 on: April 04, 2017, 04:45:47 am »

And the governor of Murcia, Pedro Antonio Sánchez finally resigned. That means PP will hold the Murcia governor for the remaining of the term, and that the no confidence vote will almost certainly fail (Cs probably abstains or votes no now).

No idea who the new governor will be though, as he will remain as PP leader in the region (not a rare arrangement, many times parties have one person as regional leader but another as governor candidate).
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tack50
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« Reply #1239 on: April 05, 2017, 02:16:08 pm »

There have been lots of interesting developments concerning Gibraltar reciently. Basically Spain will get veto powers on any Brexit deal on Gibraltar.

The UK has become very angry about it, and there have been some interesting headlines in British "newspapers" like The Sun, and comments about going to war!
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« Reply #1240 on: April 10, 2017, 07:24:11 am »

Carme Chacón has passed away:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/04/10/inenglish/1491808518_435961.html

Quote
Carme Chacón, a leading figure in the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) and Spain’s first-ever female defense minister, was found dead on Sunday evening in her apartment in Madrid. She was 46.

Chacón, who suffered from a congenital heart condition, which is believed to have caused her death, held the Defense Ministry’s top job from 2008 to 2011 under the former PSOE government of then-Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. She was seven months pregnant when she took on the role.

The Socialist politician, who came from Spain’s northeastern Catalonia region, was one of the party’s most popular figures at a time when the PSOE was struggling to deal with the economic crisis. She came extremely close to winning the party leadership after the departure of Zapatero, in the wake of the Socialists’ defeat in the November 2011 elections, but was narrowly beaten by her rival Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba (...)
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tack50
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« Reply #1241 on: April 16, 2017, 08:36:36 am »
« Edited: April 16, 2017, 08:41:30 am by tack50 »

Poll by El País/Metroscopia about Catalonia:

Would you be in favour of a UDI?


Yes: 33%
No: 62%

In case of a completely legal and negotiated with Spain referendum, what would you vote?

Independence: 44%
Remain: 49%

If it was clear that Catalonia would end up outside the EU in case of independence, what would you vote?

Independence: 40%
Remain: 53%

If there was a 3rd option where Catalonia would remain part of Spain but would get more devolved and fixed powers, what would you vote?


Indepencence: 31%
Status Quo: 19%
More devolution: 46%

Do you think it's ok for Catalonia's integration in Spain to get an agreement where the constitution would give it some differentiated powers?


Catalonia: Yes: 70% No: 27%
Rest of Spain: Yes: 33% No: 61%

Regional election poll

PDECat: 11%
ERC: 29.2% (total JxSi: +0.7)
Cs: 16% (-1.2)
Catalunya Si que es Pot: 16% (+7.1)
PSC-PSOE: 13% (+0.3)
PP: 5.8% (-2.7)
CUP: 4.1% (-4.1)
Others: 4.9% (+0.6)

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/04/11/media/1491901157_109575.html
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coloniac
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« Reply #1242 on: April 16, 2017, 01:49:19 pm »

Any reason for the change of heart? The pro-independence camp had a fairly solid lead after Rajoy ''won'' again.
What happened to IC-V?
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tack50
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« Reply #1243 on: April 17, 2017, 05:05:46 am »

Any reason for the change of heart? The pro-independence camp had a fairly solid lead after Rajoy ''won'' again.
What happened to IC-V?

IC-V is part of the Catalunya si que es pot coalition, alongside Podemos. And idk why independence has fallen slightly. I guess backlash against Rajoy dying down+the pro-independence coalition going through a hard time? (a leaked audio of a PDECat leader reciently saying that if the "proces" failed they should go back towards being pro autonomy and against independence, like pre-2012)
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1244 on: April 18, 2017, 06:42:38 am »

So something major just happened. The judges of the Gürtel case (corruption scandal linked to the illegal financing of the PP in Valencia and Madrid and possibly national levels) have called on Rajoy to come and declare as a witness.
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tack50
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« Reply #1245 on: April 19, 2017, 03:29:00 pm »
« Edited: April 19, 2017, 03:32:40 pm by tack50 »

Got bored and with spare free time and decided what would happen if in Spain we elected Congress like the UK/US instead of proportionally. Also without reapportioning anything (so seats in say, Soria would have less people than those in Madrid) Decided to start with the Canary Islands. With this map of districts here are the 2011, 2015 and 2016 results:

Img


Las Palmas
2011:
PP 8 (clean sweep)

2015:
Podemos: 4 (Lanzarote, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria*3)
PP: 4 (Fuerteventura and Agüimes, Gran Canaria South, Gran Canaria West, Telde and Ingenio)

2016:
PP 8 (clean sweep)

Santa Cruz de Tenerife

2011:
PP 7 (clean sweep)

2015:
PP 6
PSOE 1 (Tenerife South West)

2016:
PP 7 (clean sweep)

Conclusion: PP sweeps 2016 (split in the left) and 2011 (PP landslide) as expected. Podemos is surprisingly competitive in Las Palmas! (they could have also taken the Fuerteventura seat). PSOE surprisingly bad (only narrowly takes 1 seat in Tenerife, might have also taken the La Palma/La Gomera/El Hierro seat with some serious effort)

Of course it's just fiction as if we did that we'd have a (much stronger) 2 party system, but still nice to look at it.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1246 on: April 20, 2017, 11:43:23 am »

I'm afraid I can't see the image.

However, I've designed a couple of alternate electoral maps myself.

Spain 2016 election: http://imgur.com/KqCnGOB
Spain 2015 election: http://imgur.com/vFLPtyK
Spain 2011 election: http://imgur.com/AvabjRK
Madrid 2015 election: http://imgur.com/Hin7Q5m
Catalonia 2015 election: http://imgur.com/nfwxiCo
Catalonia 2012 election: http://imgur.com/Ai91tQK

People's Party proposal for electoral reform in Madrid to shift to a MMP system: http://imgur.com/kazeImb
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« Reply #1247 on: April 20, 2017, 11:50:18 am »


People's Party proposal for electoral reform in Madrid to shift to a MMP system: http://imgur.com/kazeImb

How likely is electoral reform to pass?
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1248 on: April 20, 2017, 06:54:42 pm »


People's Party proposal for electoral reform in Madrid to shift to a MMP system: http://imgur.com/kazeImb

How likely is electoral reform to pass?

Not at all. It was proposed back in 2014 when the PP had a majority, and the opposition rejected it so hard, they haven't proposed it again, at best hinted at it under Cifuentes. If there's a reform of the Asamble de Madrid, it'd be open the lists up, lower the threshold from 5% to 3% and reduce its size from around 120 to around 100.
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tack50
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« Reply #1249 on: April 21, 2017, 02:44:58 am »


People's Party proposal for electoral reform in Madrid to shift to a MMP system: http://imgur.com/kazeImb

How likely is electoral reform to pass?
Didn't know about Madrid, but many other places are trying to pass reforms. Murcia passed a reform as part of the PP+Cs deal (went from 5 constituencies to a single at-large one; with the hurdle being reduced from 5% to 3%)

Another place where electoral reform is being discussed is in the Canary Islands, where the minor islands get as much of a voice as the 2 large ones even though they only have 20% of the people. However parties can't agree on a reform so I don't have much hope for that one. A proposal was to include 10 extra at large legislators to make the system more proportional, but PP and NC rejected that. Others want to keep the system as is (maybe lowering the hurdles from 6 to 3% regional and from 30 to 15% in an island). NC proposed increasing the number of legislators in GC/TF from 15 to 22, and in FV from 7 to 8.

At the national level I also remember electoral reform being discussed but I don't think it will pass unless the 4 main parties agree on a big constitutional reform package, which isn't likely to happen.
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