Spanish elections and politics

[Nanwe]

People's Party proposal for electoral reform in Madrid to shift to a MMP system: http://imgur.com/kazeImb

How likely is electoral reform to pass?

Didn't know about Madrid, but many other places are trying to pass reforms. Murcia passed a reform as part of the PP+Cs deal (went from 5 constituencies to a single at-large one; with the hurdle being reduced from 5% to 3%)

Yeah, but the thing is that Madrid already pretty much has perfect proportionality, and lowering the threshold is only a priority for parties that barely failed to meet it (aka IU, maybe UPyD). As for the open lists, I'm not sure it can be done without changing the LOREG, which is not really up to the comunities beyond proposing a law to Congress - which would then actually have to pass.

Another place where electoral reform is being discussed is in the Canary Islands, where the minor islands get as much of a voice as the 2 large ones even though they only have 20% of the people. However parties can't agree on a reform so I don't have much hope for that one. A proposal was to include 10 extra at large legislators to make the system more proportional, but PP and NC rejected that. Others want to keep the system as is (maybe lowering the hurdles from 6 to 3% regional and from 30 to 15% in an island). NC proposed increasing the number of legislators in GC/TF from 15 to 22, and in FV from 7 to 8.

Interesting. I can understand that in an archipelago the territorial element it's important, since each island has rather clearer interestes, but that seems excessive. I suppose you can either expand Parliament (easy to do, but unpopular) or create as you say an at-large constituency (politicall hard to do, popular-ish). The issue is that at the ed of the day, people don't care too much about electoral law. And when they do it's always the same of say that Spain should be a single constituency of 350 deputies, which imho is a ludicrous idea, or worse those on the hard-right/far-right like Jimenez Los Santos or Vox who want FPTP.

At the national level I also remember electoral reform being discussed but I don't think it will pass unless the 4 main parties agree on a big constitutional reform package, which isn't likely to happen.

Yeah, any realistic reform of the LOREG beyond the simplest thing (closed > open lists; expanding Congress to its constitutional maximum of 400 deputies), requires a constitutional amendment, like to do away with the province as the basic electoral unit, which is a ridiculous requirement designed to favour the UCD (!!). It could be removed but since Podemos insists on putting every single amendment (even one as unconsequential as this one) to a vote in referendum and the PP would oppose it and it has a majority in the Senate...

I could always imagine a compromise where the provincial unit gets removed, and in exchnage the law for local elections is changed to a semi-parliamentary system where the mayor is elected by a two-round vote separate from the local council. But since atm Spain has a government but no opposition (mess in PSOE, Podemos failing at institutional politics and C's trying to be both government and opposition party simultaneously)

[tack50]

In other news, former governor of Madrid Ignacio Gonzalez (2012-2015) has been sent to jail tonight. Yet another PP politician that goes to jail.

[tack50]

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Yeah, the communties are very limited in that aspect. Other than the ones I discussed, I guess other than de-gerrymandering Castille La Mancha (not likely to happen as that backfired so bad PP was actually hurt by it, not helped! Maybe Podemos can pressure but Garcia-Page is one of the most anti-Podemos PSOE governors.) I can't think of any meaningful reforms. Maybe have the Basque Country give different numbers of seats per province (not sure if PNV is helped or hurt by it)? Or in general make the system more proportional everywhere?

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Sure, there's no perfect solution (although in the Canary Islands, people do care, at least in Gran Canaria). The at-large constituency was expanding parliament (from 60 to 70 iirc). And yeah, most proposals are the old "make Spain 1 at large constituency" or the like, which require a constitutional reform anyways. The only one that didn't that I've seen was Cs proposal (Expand parliament to 400 members, use the remaining 50 to make it proportional, like MMP).

Also, since when does VOX want FPTP? Do they want to never ever get elected? I can see why some people would want that, it does have advantages like politicians being able to defy their party without being forced out of the list, but also has lots of disadvantages. We also use sort of FPTP in the Senate and it's not like the politicians there defy their parties that much.

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Yeah. I personally don't think a referendum would be a problem for a simple reform (would most likely pass like 65-35 at least if it's popular and everyone endorses it). But I can see why a referendum is not something others want to do.

And yes, we don't have an opposition at the moment. PSOE will have to work with the government sometimes so they would be a weird opposition. Podemos as you say does not know how to do institutional politics (Iglesias did mean it when they said they'd be in the streets: see their "tramabus"). I guess if Errejón had won they would bee a lot better off. Cs same as PSOE but even more with the government.

I guess ERC and Rufián are the leaders of the opposition now? XD

[tack50]

Esperanza Aguirre resigns as councillor in Madrid's town hall

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2017/04/24/58fe097c22601dcb318b4617.html

Well, I guess she'll be resigning for now, but she has often resigned, then returned to politics. It wouldn't surprise me at all if she was a candidate for something in 2019 or 2020 (though no idea of what, there's no chance she runs for mayor again and Cifuentes will definitely run for reelection as governor). I also don't see her as candidate for the European elections. Maybe she'll run as a regular backbencher MP?

Edit: She is 65, would be 67 in 2019. Probably will just retire.

[Solidarity Forever]

Apparently someone detained in the Lezo case (Pablo González?) has a kid at my university, by word of my old Spanish professor. Not sure who they are though.

[tack50]

Big news: Podemos will present a no confidence vote against Rajoy

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/politica/podemos-plantea-mocion-censura-contra-rajoy-6000718

I guess it's a way to try and influence the PSOE primary? (forcing them to reiterate their support towards a corrupt PP government). Though the PSOE could vote yes if they are sure that Catalan parties or the PNV will abstain (a no confidence vote requires 50%+1). Maybe they just want some headlines?

I seriously doubt this is actually intended to put Iglesias as PM.

Edit: I was right. PSOE has said they won't support it, so it's going nowhere. The best paralel is the 1987 no confidence vote, when PSOE had an absolute majority and it was a worthless no confidence vote.

[Nanwe]

Well it wasn't worthless. It sank Hernández Mancha's career as leader of AP. Let's see what happens to Iglesias

[Velasco]

Well it wasn't worthless. It sank Hernández Mancha's career as leader of AP. Let's see what happens to Iglesias

Pablo Igkesias is not a jerk like that Hernández Mancha. He is the Spanish Lenin: a true Alpha Male

[tack50]

Weird polling for Madrid's regional assembly:

El País/Metroscopia

PP: 36 seats (25,7%) (-12 seats, -7.3%)
Podemos: 35 seats (24,9%) (+8 seats, +6.3%)
Ciudadanos: 31 seats (22.6%)(+14 seats, +10,5%)
PSOE: 27 seats (19.7%) (-10 seats, -5.7%)

PP+Cs still hold a majority, and expanded a bit. Also, there's a sorpasso not just from Podemos, but also from Cs! Huge changes overall, I'm not sure if it's all that reliable.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/04/30/media/1493576170_430043.html

La Razón/NC Report

PP: 51 seats (35.9%) (-3 seats, +2.8%)
PSOE: 34 seats (24,6%) (-3 seats, -0.8%)
Podemos: 26 seats (18,1%) (-1 seat, -0.5%)
Cs: 18 seats (13,1%) (+1 seat, +0.9%)

http://www.larazon.es/local/madrid/cifuentes-sube-tres-escanos-tras-la-crisis-de-la-operacion-lezo-FC15063053

PP and Cs also increase their majority slightly.

This one is a lot closer to the national average, and I don't think Madrid will deviate all that much from the national average for a general election. It's not the first place that comes to mind when talking about "dual voting" (the Basque Country is a great example, with PNV winning regional elections and Podemos winning general ones)

In any case I'd say Madrid is lean PP for 2019's regional election, maybe even likely PP (Cifuentes is doing a good job at distancing herself from the recient corruption cases). If PSOE was not able to win in 2015 or in 2003 (the second election) or 2007, it's definitely not winning now, and even with Errejón as Podemos' candidate a Podemos victory is also unlikely.

[¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂]

How are the podemos inspired mayors/local groups holding up in popularity?

[Nanwe]

Yet another poll for the region of Madrid. I think it shows Metroscopia is the rather off one.

In this scenario, the current Cifuentes government would lose its majority, being replaced with a left-wing PSOE-Podemos government. The polling was done in the last couple of days, so it reflects the Operación Lezo aftermath.

La Sexta/Invymark

PP: 44 seats (30.9%) (-4 seats, -2.2 pp.)
PSOE: 36 seats (25.8%) (-1 seats, +0.4 pp.)
Podemos: 30 seats (21.3%) (+3 seats, +2.7 pp.)
Ciudadanos: 19 seats (13.5%)(+2 seats, +1.4 pp.)

While it's true Madrid won't deviate too much from the national vote, Madrid I think is the region where Ciudadanos can obtain its best results, so depending on how things develop down the road with regards to what seems to be only the beginning of yet another round of tremendous PP corruption scandals, it could be greatly benefited. Also, Madrid does experience dual voting insofar as the PSM is no longer the second most-voted party in the general election, but remains so in the autonomic elections, perhaps as the PSM's candidate, Ángel Gabilondo is a pretty popular person in the left (thanks to his tenure as Education Minister under ZP) and who's not unpopular amongst the right either. I know a few friends who liked Gabilondo's smooth, tranquil political persona and voted for him in the regional election, but Podemos (or even Ciudadanos) in the local and the national election.

[tack50]

How are the podemos inspired mayors/local groups holding up in popularity?

Old polls but anyways (keep in mind approval ratings in Spain are usually given as a 1-10 score instead of regual approval/disapproval):

Manuela Carmena, Madrid (March 2016): +6 approval rating
Ada Colau, Barcelona (January 2017): 5,1/10 score
Jose María "Kichi", Cádiz (June 2016): 4,7/10 score

From what I can tell, they are all doing reasonably well for Spanish politicians. Just being above water or at least close to a 5/10 is already an achievement. Rajoy is at a 3/10 for comparison

[tack50]

Surprise in the PSOE primaries!

Susana Diaz wins the collection of endorsements, but by a smaller margin than expected especially considering she has basically the entire party leadership with her.

She collects 62000, Pedro Sánchez 57000 (beating his 2014 record) and Patxi López 12000 (though he refused to make this step a preliminary primary)

I guess this means the PSOE primary is too close to call?

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2017/05/04/590aef9fe5fdea4b338b4657.html

For reference you need 5% of the party to endorse you (9500 people). And in 2014 the endorsements were:

Pedro Sánchez: 41000 (ended up with 49% of the final vote)
Eduardo Madina: 25000 (ended up with 36% of the final vote)
Antonio Perez-Tapias: 10000 (ended up with 15% of the final vote)

Edit: Apparently the amount of endorsements this time is equal to 70%! of the total PSOE members (and almost equivalent to the amount of voters in 2014)

So either the primaries will have ridiculously high turnout (90% or more, which considering the circumstances might happen) or the result won't vary much from the endorsements collection.

Only other option for an upset is Patxi López dropping out for some reason, but again isn't likely to happen.

[Kamala]

I've heard a lot about Macron being similar to Rivera and the Cs - how apt is this comparison? Does Macron's victory in France bode well for Cs in Spain at all?

[tack50]

I've heard a lot about Macron being similar to Rivera and the Cs - how apt is this comparison? Does Macron's victory in France bode well for Cs in Spain at all?

Yeah, Macron is basically French Albert Rivera/Cs. Both are centrist pro-EU liberals. Cs does have an extra anti corruption platform (at least in theory, depending on who you ask it's not all that enforced, although they did manage to kick out the corrupt governor in Murcia reciently) which I don't think Macron has, and an anti Catalan independence platform (not an issue in French Catalonia/Basque Country).

As for whether Macron's victory will help Cs, I don't know but I'm leaning on no. It definitely won't hurt either though. He seems to be using it as publicity for his liberal platform and being proud of France electing a liberal though, so maybe it will help him slightly?

For all what's worth I don't see any scenario leading to a "Prime Minister Rivera", or even to a Cs governor (Catalonia would be their best bet in a wide anti independence movement, but that seems extremely unlikely)

[Mike88]

2 new polls:

CIS
Image Link

Invymark/laSexta
Image Link

[Velasco]

I've heard a lot about Macron being similar to Rivera and the Cs - how apt is this comparison? Does Macron's victory in France bode well for Cs in Spain at all?

Yeah, Macron is basically French Albert Rivera/Cs. Both are centrist pro-EU liberals. Cs does have an extra anti corruption platform (at least in theory, depending on who you ask it's not all that enforced, although they did manage to kick out the corrupt governor in Murcia recently) which I don't think Macron has, and an anti Catalan independence platform (not an issue in French Catalonia/Basque Country).

I'd be very careful with such comparisons, even though some media in Spain like to resort to them. While it's true that there are similarities on the "centrist pro-EU liberal" thing, there are many differences between the Beautiful Rivera and the Flawless Macron, as well between C's and En Marche! or between the political situations in Spain and France.

To begin with personal backgrounds: Macron was a very young cabinet member with the socialist Hollande (Minister of Economy!), briefly a PS member and never elected to any representative post until past Sunday. To the contrary Rivera has never been appointed minister, was never a PSOE member (some reports claim that he was in the PP youth organisation), but he has been a very young party leader and elected representative (member of the Parliament of Catalonia and later of the Congress of Deputies). Also, Rivera has never been in something similar to the ENA.

On the other hand, C's and En Marche! (with their slightly different origins and organisational models) might have in common the anti-corruption thing (Fillongate!), but hardly the anti-separatist thing. Peripheral nationalism is a Spanish phenomenon  that means very little in France (although there are some separatists in the Pays Basque). The origins of C's are in Catalonia and in the fight against Catalan nationalism. The "centrist pro-EU liberal" thing came later, although in the beginning the official ideology of the party was some place between liberalism and socialdemocracy (currently only liberalism).

The C's people is very happy with the Macron phenomenon for obvious reasons. However they should curb their enthusiasm a bit, because they can make fools of themselves. For instance, the claim made by MEP Javier Nart on a private meeting between him and Macron with Rivera present had to be denied by the C's leader in TV. Rivera had to admit: "I have never met Macron".

[tack50]

Multiscenario poll by El Mundo-Sigma Dos depending on who wins the PSOE primaries:
Image Link


http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2017/05/14/591750e9468aebac518b4590.html

Interesting to see that it's Pedro Sánchez who would perform the best, getting 2011-like results, back when Podemos/Cs did not exist! instead of Patxi López as common wisdom would have it. Then again 2011 was a terrible result for PSOE. Maybe the 2 party system is coming back? (PSOE+PP easily get more than 55% even with Susana Díaz, while back in 2015 they weren't able to even get 50%)

Generic poll (without mentioning the candidate):

Image Link

Other than PSOE making a comeback (unsurprising considering Podemos' circus) and Cs making small gains (unsurprising considering the "Operación Lezo") the other thing that sticks out to me is PDECat getting half the votes than in 2015! Maybe Catalan nationalism is dying out? (ERC is stable, not rising). Seems weird considering nationalists in the Canary Islands and the Basque Country are getting tons of concessions (though maybe that's the cause as PDECat voters would prefer a deal with Rajoy in exchange for money like back in the days of Aznar?)

[Worried Italian Progressive]

From what I understood, the PSOE primary debate was...rough to say the least.
Sanchez may not be a politically genius, but Susana Diaz makes it soooo easy to hate her.

[Velasco]

From what I understood, the PSOE primary debate was...rough to say the least.
Sanchez may not be a politically genius, but Susana Diaz makes it soooo easy to hate her.

Indeed. Susana Díaz is so devoid of substance that makes Pedro Sánchez good. It's not strange that Mariano Rajoy is still hanging on when you consider how worthless are the leaders of the opposition parties: the red, the purple and the orange. I'll try to watch the video when I can, just for the fun.

[¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂]

What is Lopez like?

[Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln]

From what I understood, the PSOE primary debate was...rough to say the least.
Sanchez may not be a politically genius, but Susana Diaz makes it soooo easy to hate her.

From what I can discern, Susana Diaz is everything people hate about Hillary Clinton multiplied by 100.

[tack50]

What is Lopez like?

Former governor of the Basque Country, and I think he is usually well considered (though he lost reelection in 2012, but then again, so did all PSOE governors at the time except in Andalucia and Asturias).

Interestingly he became governor in a PP+PSOE coalition, with the objectives of fighting terrorism and the like (and ETA dissolved under his watch, so mission accomplished there I guess).

As for the position in the party, he used to support Sánchez but has moved on and is running between Sanchez and Diaz. He is considered a good candidate, but without a chance, and since the leadership election is FPTP this has led to the "train crash" (as Lopez puts it) between Diaz supporters and Sanchez supporters.

[tack50]

From what I understood, the PSOE primary debate was...rough to say the least.
Sanchez may not be a politically genius, but Susana Diaz makes it soooo easy to hate her.

From what I can discern, Susana Diaz is everything people hate about Hillary Clinton multiplied by 100.

Yeah, I've often seen stuff like "Susana Diaz seems to want to become Spanish Hillary. Didn't she learn anything?".

Also, her region has been in quite a bad shape under her tenure as governor. Then again it's Andalucía, no one expects it to be in good shape but still. Her branch of the party is also the most corrupt PSOE branch by far (at the rates of PP in Madrid or Valencia). Her 2 predecessors are being judged for corruption.

The more I think about it, the more the PSOE primary reminds me of the US Democratic primary, with Diaz=Hillary, Sanchez=Sanders and Lopez=The minor candidates (O Malley?). Then again there are also huge differences (while Sanchez is running as an anti-establishment candidate like Sanders, he was part of the establishment. Also all Americans were able to vote in the Democratic primary while only around 200k PSOE members can vote in this one. And Patxi Lopez has a lot more traction than O Malley and the like ever got)

[Velasco]

What is Lopez like?

Interestingly he became governor in a PP+PSOE coalition

There wasn't a coalition between PSOE and PP in the Basque Country. Patxi López led a minority government. The PP voted for López in the investiture and gave him confidence and supply. Currently in Spain, Mariano Rajoy leads a minority government after having reached an investiture agreement with Ciudadanos (and after the PSOE's Federal Commision decided that the socialists would abstain).


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque_regional_election,_2009

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