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« Reply #1275 on: May 15, 2017, 10:09:25 pm »

Nah PSOE are too entrenched in the south.
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« Reply #1276 on: May 16, 2017, 04:17:20 am »

Not that interested in Spanish politics, so enlighten me: Should I root for Diaz if I want PSOE to go the route of PASOK?

If you are not that interested, why giving a fyck for the destruction of PSOE?

Nah PSOE are too entrenched in the south.

Even if it doesn't collapse quite as hard as PASOK, could her tenure realistically result in PSOE's marginalization and replacement by Podemos as the undisputed most powerful party of the left, or has Podemos already missed their window to become the primary party of opposition? Again, I'm not particularly well-adversed on Spanish politics so I'm fully aware that I might sound like a total moron on the subject.

Maybe the heart of problem is that Pablo Iglesias and his clique are too obsessed in turning Podemos into the main party of opposition, instead of turning Podemos into a party of government. Despite Susana Díaz claims to be a candidate that can win elections, polls are consistently saying that Pedro Sánchez is the preferred candidate of socialist voters and supporters, as well he would perform better than her in a general election. It's not that Sánchez is brilliant, but the way his rivals ousted and humiliated him have contributed to give our man a maverick aura. In times of hardship, people in Spain loves mavericks. The PSOE is strongly entrenched in certain geographic areas, as well among certain social and age groups. Susana Díaz would be a leader on the defensive but, again, the Podemos leadership is now playing on the defensive too (the motto seems to be "to resist" instead of "to win")
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tack50
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« Reply #1277 on: May 16, 2017, 04:49:41 am »

What is Lopez like?
Interestingly he became governor in a PP+PSOE coalition

There wasn't a coalition between PSOE and PP in the Basque Country. Patxi López led a minority government. The PP voted for López in the investiture and gave him confidence and supply. Currently in Spain, Mariano Rajoy leads a minority government after having reached an investiture agreement with Ciudadanos (and after the PSOE's Federal Commision decided that the socialists would abstain).


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque_regional_election,_2009

Quote
After the nationalists' failure to build a successful coalition, the Socialist Party started its contacts. They soon secured the support of their national arch-rival, the conservative People's Party, which vowed to support him in order to oust the nationalists from government after nearly three decades of constant presence. Furthermore Union, Progress and Democracy and Esker Batua, with one MP each, promised not to vote against Mr. López in the investiture session. Thus, the PSE-EE had secured 38 votes in favour and two abstentions, with at most 35 MPs against, and should nothing fail, Mr. López would head the new Basque government. The confirmation of this pact caused the outrage of the PNV, which vowed to put forth its own candidate in the investiture session citing their "right" to head the government as the top-voted party.

The conditions of the pact between the socialist and the conservatives were a matter of constant speculation in the whole of Spain for most of March, with the issue being raised in many political talk shows and press editorials. Many radicals from both parties claimed that the other would just use their coalition partner, effectively diluting their core ideology. As the negotiation advanced, PP leader Antonio Basagoiti made it clear that he would not request positions in the new Government, acknowledging the PSE-EE wish to form a minority government with external support from his party. He vowed to provide stability to the new executive, and attacked the "shamelessness" of PNV outcries, citing that the Álava provincial government was headed by the PNV itself which had only been the third party in the last election. Finally it was decided that the PP would head the Basque Parliament[10] and refrain from moving or supporting any vote of no confidence, while the Socialists would form a minority government on their own and treat the PP as their "preferred" coalition partner, rejecting deals with other parties that went against their "main" one with the conservatives.

The final deal was ratified by both parties and leaked to the public in the last days of March, with its formal signature being performed by the negotiation teams on April 1.[12] The new Parliament assembled on April 3 and elected its bureau, with PP MP Arantza Quiroga as its Speaker and two PSE-EE members ensuring a majority in the 5-member organ. The investiture session for the new Lehendakari, for which both López and the incumbent Ibarretxe stood, was held on May 5. Mr. López was elected Lehendakari of the Basque Country on a 39-35 vote and was sworn in two days later at the Gernika House of Assemblies.

Oh, my bad, I thought it was an actual coalition. Still he did have some PP support (like Cs does now). Actual coalitions seem rare in Spain to be fair, with minority government+conficence and supply being a popular arrangement instead.
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tack50
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« Reply #1278 on: May 16, 2017, 04:54:02 am »
« Edited: May 16, 2017, 05:07:25 am by tack50 »

Not that interested in Spanish politics, so enlighten me: Should I root for Diaz if I want PSOE to go the route of PASOK?

Yes and no. She is the one with the highest chance of turning PSOE into PASOK, though unlike PASOK, PSOE would probably survive and still win some elections in the south, turning into a "Partido del Sur Oeste Español" (party of the Spanish SouthWest).

On the other hand, Podemos doesn't seem like a viable party to replace them. Had Errejón won the primaries and become the new leader then sure, PSOE would die with Diaz (though even with Lopez or Sanchez they'd be on a tougher position). But if it's Iglesias vs Diaz I can't see Podemos gaining that much. I guess a result could be:

PP: 35%
Podemos: 19%
PSOE: 19%
Cs: 15%

With massive abstention on the left (a la 2000, but worse) due to the 2 terribly flawed candidates. In fact, if infighting and unpopular candidates continue to dominate on the left, I expect Rajoy (or whoever replaces him if he retires) to keep rulint at least until 2022.

In fact, Rajoy might become the "right wing Felipe Gonzalez" in that regard. A corrupt president who still managed to make the country prosper more or less (we entered NATO with Gonzalez and Rajoy presided over the exit of the crisis)
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Velasco
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« Reply #1279 on: May 16, 2017, 06:27:51 am »

Oh, my bad, I thought it was an actual coalition. Still he did have some PP support (like Cs does now). Actual coalitions seem rare in Spain to be fair, with minority government+conficence and supply being a popular arrangement instead.

Spain lacks of a tradition of coalition governments at national level, but there have been many coalition agreements at regional and local levels.
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tack50
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« Reply #1280 on: May 20, 2017, 05:11:47 am »

Considering that tomorrow is the PSOE primary I guess I'd do some predictions. My prediction is:

Governor Susana Díaz (Andalucía): 47%
Former Governor Patxi López (Basque Country): 7%
Former MP and Party Leader Pedro Sánchez (Madrid): 46%

Susana Díaz wins by a hair (and maybe even with some voter fraud). The party is basically split in 2.
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« Reply #1281 on: May 21, 2017, 02:03:22 pm »

How is the election going on? From what I'm reading en El Pais is either strong Sanchez (in some parts 90%+) or strong Diaz, but I'm feeling he is doing better overall.

Results from La Rioja

Pedro Sanchez: 602 (60,38%)
Susana Diaz: 225 (22,57%)
Patxi Lopez: 162 (16,25%)

Source: https://twitter.com/PSOELaRioja/status/866366127294861313

I don't know how are PSOE militants in La Rioja (it isn't in Andalucia so I would expect a Sanchez leaning result but I don't really know) but I hope that this performance is a trend across Spain.

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« Reply #1282 on: May 21, 2017, 02:09:26 pm »

According with El Independiente, with 10% of the vote counted, the results are Sanchez 8000 and Diaz 6000.

From Valladolid:

Pedro 916
Susana 399
Patxi 112

Chiclana de la Frontera (Andalucia)
Pedro 154
Susana 113
Patxi 14

Triana (Sevilla)
Patxi 15
Pedro 57
Susana 217

Source: https://twitter.com/carmentorrres?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fv.24liveblog.com%2Flive%2F%3Fid%3D1390397
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tack50
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« Reply #1283 on: May 21, 2017, 02:10:18 pm »

How is the election going on? From what I'm reading en El Pais is either strong Sanchez (in some parts 90%+) or strong Diaz, but I'm feeling he is doing better overall.

Results from La Rioja

Pedro Sanchez: 602 (60,38%)
Susana Diaz: 225 (22,57%)
Patxi Lopez: 162 (16,25%)

Source: https://twitter.com/PSOELaRioja/status/866366127294861313

I don't know how are PSOE militants in La Rioja (it isn't in Andalucia so I would expect a Sanchez leaning result but I don't really know) but I hope that this performance is a trend across Spain.



Yeah, la Rioja is a Sanchez leaning area, and a small one anyways.

However, the big surprise thus far IMO has been the enclave of Ceuta! Even smaller than la Rioja, but Susana Diaz won there in the endorsements race. However, Sánchez has apparently won it now in the primary!

http://ceutatv.com/not/1636/-pedro-sanchez-se-impone-en-las-primarias-del-psoe-en-ceuta/

Sanchez 168
Diaz 72
(the source didn't tell Lopez's result)

Granted, it's a very small place, but if that holds up on the rest of Spain, Sánchez is probably favoured.
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« Reply #1284 on: May 21, 2017, 02:11:41 pm »

Interesting results:

Navarra
Pedro 864 (69,51%)
Susana 205 (16,49%)
Patxi 164 (13,19%)
blanco 10 (0,80%).

Source: Carmen Torres

Barcelona:
Pedro Sánchez 1199
Susana Díaz 152

Source: https://twitter.com/AntonioMaestre
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« Reply #1285 on: May 21, 2017, 02:12:07 pm »

How is the election going on? From what I'm reading en El Pais is either strong Sanchez (in some parts 90%+) or strong Diaz, but I'm feeling he is doing better overall.

Results from La Rioja

Pedro Sanchez: 602 (60,38%)
Susana Diaz: 225 (22,57%)
Patxi Lopez: 162 (16,25%)

Source: https://twitter.com/PSOELaRioja/status/866366127294861313

I don't know how are PSOE militants in La Rioja (it isn't in Andalucia so I would expect a Sanchez leaning result but I don't really know) but I hope that this performance is a trend across Spain.



Yeah, la Rioja is a Sanchez leaning area, and a small one anyways.

However, the big surprise thus far IMO has been the enclave of Ceuta! Even smaller than la Rioja, but Susana Diaz won there in the endorsements race. However, Sánchez has apparently won it now in the primary!

http://ceutatv.com/not/1636/-pedro-sanchez-se-impone-en-las-primarias-del-psoe-en-ceuta/

Sanchez 168
Diaz 72
(the source didn't tell Lopez's result)

Granted, it's a very small place, but if that holds up on the rest of Spain, Sánchez is probably favoured.

Good good Cheesy
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tack50
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« Reply #1286 on: May 21, 2017, 02:15:54 pm »

According to El Mundo, 50% of the vote is already in and Sánchez is in the lead but no one else is reporting that so I'm not sure if that's true
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tack50
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« Reply #1287 on: May 21, 2017, 02:21:43 pm »
« Edited: May 21, 2017, 02:25:18 pm by tack50 »

Official website:

http://consultasg.psoe.es/

I think there's already around 70% of the vote in (though there's no overall data that I can find but most places are at that rate)

Thus far:

Sánchez 49%
Diaz: 40.5%
López: 10.5%

Sanchez flips Madrid, Castille-La Mancha, Extremadura and Murcia compared to the endorsements

Also WTF, Patxi Lopez wins in Ceuta XD (unlike what I reported before)
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« Reply #1288 on: May 21, 2017, 02:23:32 pm »

Official website:

http://consultasg.psoe.es/

I think there's already around 70% of the vote in (though there's no overall data that I can find but most places are at that rate)

Thus far:

Sánchez 49%
Diaz: 40.5%
López: 10.5%

Sanchez flips Madrid, Castille-La Mancha and Murcia compared to the endorsements

Also WTF, Patxi Lopez wins in Ceuta XD (unlike what I reported before)

Hahahaha great, if this is true, this is very nice! Ceuta is a weird place haha
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« Reply #1289 on: May 21, 2017, 02:40:36 pm »

Diaz has congratulated Pedro Smiley

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?
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« Reply #1290 on: May 21, 2017, 02:48:50 pm »

Diaz has congratulated Pedro Smiley

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?
Another election? What for? Polls say the results wouldn't be much different from the June 2016 election. The election of Sanchéz is, my opinion, a huge mistake. He already lost, badly, the 2015 and 2016 election and suggesting a PSOE approach to Podemos is the wrong way to go. I believe the PSOE leadership fight is far from over. The establishment will never accept well Sanchéz and there will be constant battles between both sides.
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« Reply #1291 on: May 21, 2017, 03:06:24 pm »
« Edited: May 21, 2017, 03:16:59 pm by Velasco »

Pedro Sánchez leads in all regions except the Basque Country (Patxi López) Andalusia and Aragón (Susana Díaz)

Diaz has congratulated Pedro Smiley

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?

Once a year has passed from the last dissolution, Mariano Rajoy can call a new election whenever he wants. However, he's not going to call now because new corruption scandals might hurt the PP electorally. Likely he will try to resist at least a couple of years, in the hope that the economy continues growing and the situation in Europe is more stable. Given that he governs in minority, he had to reach an agreement with C's, the Basque and the Canarian nationalists in order to pass the budget. While C's gave its support in exchange of nearly nothing, the PNV obtained important concessions and the Canarian (there are 2 regionalist deputies: 1 CC and 1 NC elected in the PSOE list) will likely obtain additional investments. I guess the interest of the Albert Rivera party, whose voters come mainly from the PP, is to appear as serious and responsible people that don't put obstacles to the governability of the country, as well as to make clear that they won't allow that the Podemos populists can govern. Also, there are intermittent rumours on a new election in Catalonia, but it's not in the interest of premier Carles Puigdemont to call because his party (PDCat, formerly CDC) is in bad shape. As for the motion of confidence, it's a Podemos initiative and is not supported neither by the PSOE nor by C's. Now that Pedro Sánchez is back, he will have to make a decision. I think it's not likely that the PSOE is going to back Podemos on that, but Sánchez has promised to move the party to the left and trying to cooperate with the Podemos people. We'll see.
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« Reply #1292 on: May 21, 2017, 03:12:24 pm »

Diaz has congratulated Pedro Smiley

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?
Another election? What for? Polls say the results wouldn't be much different from the June 2016 election. The election of Sanchéz is, my opinion, a huge mistake. He already lost, badly, the 2015 and 2016 election and suggesting a PSOE approach to Podemos is the wrong way to go. I believe the PSOE leadership fight is far from over. The establishment will never accept well Sanchéz and there will be constant battles between both sides.

Neither Sánchez nor Díaz were good candidates in my opinion. Possibly the best (or the least bad) option was Patxi López. Sánchez has stated that he wants to follow the Portuguese patch. Why do you think that approaching Podemos is a bad thing? The letwing vote is divided in almost equal parts between the reds and the purples. Days of hegemony are over, despite the wishes of Susana Díaz. The only way that PSOE can govern is with the help of Podemos.
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tack50
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« Reply #1293 on: May 21, 2017, 03:12:49 pm »

Pedro Sánchez leads in all regions except the Basque Country (Patxi López) Andalusia and Aragón (Susana Díaz)

Diaz has congratulated Pedro Smiley

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?

Once a year has passed from the last dissolution, Mariano Rajoy can call a new election whenever he wants. However, he's not going to call now because new corruption scandals might hurt the PP's electorally. Likely he will try to resist at least a couple of years, in the hope that the economy continues growing and the situation in Europe is more stable. Given that he governs in minority, he had to reach an agreement with C's, the Basque and the Canarian nationalists in order to pass the budget. While C's gave its support in exchange of nearly nothing, the PNV obtained important concessions and the Canarian (there are 2 regionalist deputies: 1 CC and 1 NC elected in the PSOE list) will likely obtain additional investments. I guess the interest of the Albert Rivera party, whose voters come mainly from the PP, is to appear as serious and responsible people that don't put obstacles to the governability of the country, as well as to make clear that they won't allow that the Podemos populists to govern. Also, there are intermittent rumours on a new election in Catalonia, but it's not in the interest of premier Carles Puigdemont to call because his party (PDCat, formerly CDC) is in bad shape. As for the motion of confidence, it's a Podemos initiative and is not supported neither by the PSOE nor by C's. Now that Pedro Sánchez is back, he will have to make a decision. I think it's not likely that the PSOE is going to back Podemos on that, but Sánchez has promised to move the party to the left and trying to cooperate with the Podemos people. We'll see.


My bet is PSOE abstains on Podemos' vote of no confidence (as opposed to voting yes/no) so it fails anyways. However, shortly after PSOE and Podemos begin to plan one, maybe alongside the Catalan parties (promising a referéndum).

Alternatively there's the Cs+PSOE+Podemos route like in Murcia, but just like in Murcia it's only good for making the new president an interim one who will only dissolve parliament and call a new election, so unless there's a new PP scandal involving Rajoy, I don't see it.
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tack50
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« Reply #1294 on: May 21, 2017, 03:17:41 pm »
« Edited: May 21, 2017, 04:21:38 pm by tack50 »

Antonio Hernando (PSOE speaker in the Congress of Deputies) has resigned from his position. Not a huge surprise, Sánchez already said he was going to replace him if he won, so he probably just resigned as the less embarrassing option.

For those who don't know, Hernando was pro-Sánchez back on the day, but then became pro Diaz.

Edit: Just realised that Susana Diaz has become the 4th woman to run for PSOE leader and fail. Before her came:

- Former minister of work Matilde Fernández (2000)
- Then Leader of the PSOE representation in the European Parliament Rosa Diez (2000)
- Then minister of defense Carme Chacón (2012)

In this sense, she kinda becomes the Spanish Hillary Clinton as "woman supported by the establishment who fails". (the 3 before weren't the officialist candidates, especially the first 2)
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« Reply #1295 on: May 21, 2017, 05:00:04 pm »
« Edited: May 21, 2017, 05:02:36 pm by Mike88 »

Diaz has congratulated Pedro Smiley

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?
Another election? What for? Polls say the results wouldn't be much different from the June 2016 election. The election of Sanchéz is, my opinion, a huge mistake. He already lost, badly, the 2015 and 2016 election and suggesting a PSOE approach to Podemos is the wrong way to go. I believe the PSOE leadership fight is far from over. The establishment will never accept well Sanchéz and there will be constant battles between both sides.

Neither Sánchez nor Díaz were good candidates in my opinion. Possibly the best (or the least bad) option was Patxi López. Sánchez has stated that he wants to follow the Portuguese patch. Why do you think that approaching Podemos is a bad thing? The letwing vote is divided in almost equal parts between the reds and the purples. Days of hegemony are over, despite the wishes of Susana Díaz. The only way that PSOE can govern is with the help of Podemos.
I agree with you. Patxi Lopéz was the best option of the 3 but, at the same time, not a very good one. Podemos is toxic and any approach of PSOE to them will be very harmful. Iglesias will, with high certainty, try to push PSOE so much to the left that it will lose the center ground and this will make many moderate voters and politicians to break with PSOE, making the PSOE split like the French PS. PSOE needs a strong leader and message to decrease the power and influence Podemos has right now and, also, PSOE has to turn the paper and be them influencing and threatening Podemos, not the other way around.

The Portuguese solution cannot be repeated in Spain, because of what i explained above, but the path the PS is doing could be an example for the PSOE. Mr Costa has, basically, stolen the PSD/CDS economic and fiscal ideas like tight budget control, more emphasis on exports than imports, less public investments and because these policies are, right now, delivering a good economy and a good deficit reduction, which are very popular, the BE/PCP are just swallowing dry because any criticism will hurt them. Also, having a reformist agenda like Macron could help PSOE draw a line with PP, as they could argue that they are offering solutions while PP is trying to defend those sleazy people in court.
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« Reply #1296 on: May 21, 2017, 06:08:39 pm »
« Edited: May 21, 2017, 06:28:40 pm by Velasco »

I'm afraid you may be right in what regards the party establishment and the chronification of infighting. As for the dangers of an alliance with Podemos, they are real and it's obvious that Pablo Iglesias will try to push Sánchez further to the left and, at the same time, to exploit the situation in his own benefit. The risk of an implosion in the PSOE is real too, but remember that the popularity of Hollande plummeted because he campaigned as a leftwing politician and governed in a different way. I mean, the problem with socialdemocracy in these days is related with a loss of credibility. Obviously I must agree on the need of a strong leadership. Also, the situation and the balance of forces is different in Spain and Portugal, but Sánchez always mentions the Portuguese example.

Anyway Susana Díaz was by no means the solution for the PSOE. Furthermore, the support that ambitious apparatchik who yearns for the years of the PSOE hegemony (the Felipe González era: 1982-1993) has among the party establishment is a signal of fear, bewilderment and lack of response. On Pedro Sánchez behalf, there is a certain sociologist and PSOE member called Félix Tezanos who says the following (approx translation): "The PSOE needs a strong revulsive, a step change to reconcile the party with the society, after a leadership crisis that lasts for too long". Mr. Tezanos thinks that Pedro Sánchez has grown up and that the shameful way in which he was isolated and ousted, as well the unconditional surrender of the provisional leadersship to the PP, created the conditions for a catharsis. According to him, Sánchez has reborn and comes back with great strength. Also, he hopes that Sánchez will be able to reconnect with the urban and young voters in order to decrease gradually the influence of Podemos: "Dealing with the age gap must be the center of our politics. If the PSOE is able to connect again with the youngsters (...) Podemos will be at 15% and it will be possible to reach reasonable agreements with them. If we are stagnant with an old style leadership, it would be us the ones that may be at 15%".

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170514/422552182775/detras-de-sanchez.html
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« Reply #1297 on: May 21, 2017, 07:09:17 pm »
« Edited: May 21, 2017, 07:18:03 pm by Mike88 »

Well, will see if Sanchéz has changed. Until now, his statements and moves don't seem to show any change. What Félix Tezanos is somewhat i said but i don't agree that PSOE should reach agreements with Podemos. I think with the right message, PSOE can all but destroy Podemos.

Let's see. Podemos main weapon since the beginning is the corruption in Spanish politics. If PSOE or even Sanchéz, i don't think so, but who knows, steals that weapon from Podemos and, for example, tries to tackle corruption within PSOE and propose legislation or actions to prevent corruption, that could help to rehabilitate the party's image. Plus, fiscally responsible policies and reforms in the economy, need to be on the top priorities for PSOE. One of the main criticisms made of social democratic parties is that they are fiscally incompetent and that they create more debt and deficit. Putting forward fiscally moderate and responsible policies will, with little doubt, turn PSOE an even more stronger alternative. If they can be fiscally responsible, prove that they can use taxpayers money carefully, and that they learned from the mistakes of third-way policies that spend, spend will be paid by something, PSOE, like many other social democratic parties, can rise up again. And they need to campaign with this platform. Voters like when politicians offer them real solutions and are truthful in what they are proposing.

I believe this could be a good path for PSOE.  
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« Reply #1298 on: May 21, 2017, 08:32:04 pm »
« Edited: May 22, 2017, 06:29:08 am by Velasco »

My opinion is that at this point PSOE and Podemos cannot destroy each other, so they are condemned to reach an understanding. As for the "fiscal responsibility" I'm not particularly fond of that expression, without implying that I'm in favour of spending like there were no tomorrow.  I think that the case of Spain was not one of "fiscal irresponsibility". Let's say that, at the start of the financial crisis, the Zapatero administration had an erratic behaviour. The combined effect of denial of reality with frantic and pointless measures alongside with the sudden turn in the economic policies, constitutional express reform included, was devastating for the PSOE. However, the debt percentage in relation with GDP was low during the Zapatero terms, even though it rose in the final years and the regional debt was underestimated. It was under the Rajoy's "fiscally responsible" administration and its public spending cuts when the debt ratio to GDP surpassed 100%.

Corruption is not the Podemos only weapon, although is an important factor. The surge of Podemos is related too with the lack of expectations affecting the younger generations, including many people with a good training or education, in a country with one of the highest unemployment rates of Europe. The surge of the indignados movement and later the emergence of Podemos created a temporary feeling of illusion and connected many young and/or disillusioned people to politics. That feeling has gone for the most part and Podemos is stagnant or in a soft decline, but it's going to be very hard to kill.
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« Reply #1299 on: May 22, 2017, 02:43:58 am »

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170521/422796264745/susana-diaz-solo-gana-dos-comunidades.html

Pretty clear landslide. 
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