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tack50
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« Reply #1325 on: May 31, 2017, 10:45:34 am »

Funny story in the budget debate today: PM Rajoy accidentally voted against one part of his own budget XD

Didn't change the end result though, that item was passed almost unanimously (only Rajoy voted against it)
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« Reply #1326 on: June 01, 2017, 02:47:57 pm »

So does Sanchez' comeback mean that the government's days are numbered?
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« Reply #1327 on: June 01, 2017, 05:31:35 pm »

Those maps are really cool, as it happens, I'm actually trying to do the same thing, I was surprised by how similar the Vizcaya province districts are. However, I do wonder where they found the information to divide Santander or Oviedo by district - I've been looking and I can't find it anywhere. Same for Valladolid, and iirc Burgos too.
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« Reply #1328 on: June 01, 2017, 07:43:24 pm »

So does Sanchez' comeback mean that the government's days are numbered?

The return of Pedro Sánchez does not imply necessarily that Rajoy is done, but certainly adds a factor of instability to the already fragile foundations in which the government is standing. Pedro Sánchez is going to exercise a style of opposition more vocal than the managing commission that replaced him for several months. On the other hand, the PP is embattled by the never-ending corruption scandals and the parliamentary majority which allowed to pass the budget is very fragile. Rajoy's government made important economic concessions to Basque and Canarian regionalists in order to ensure some stability. Passing the budget this year will allow to extend it the following year thus the government could survive until the term is close to completion. Alternative parliamentary majorities are unworkable without Catalan separatists and their support would not be welcome in the PSOE. I think Rajoy can resist until 2018 or 2019, but he's going to deal with some turbulence.
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« Reply #1329 on: June 02, 2017, 07:08:46 am »

So does Sanchez' comeback mean that the government's days are numbered?

The return of Pedro Sánchez does not imply necessarily that Rajoy is done, but certainly adds a factor of instability to the already fragile foundations in which the government is standing. Pedro Sánchez is going to exercise a style of opposition more vocal than the managing commission that replaced him for several months. On the other hand, the PP is embattled by the never-ending corruption scandals and the parliamentary majority which allowed to pass the budget is very fragile. Rajoy's government made important economic concessions to Basque and Canarian regionalists in order to ensure some stability. Passing the budget this year will allow to extend it the following year thus the government could survive until the term is close to completion. Alternative parliamentary majorities are unworkable without Catalan separatists and their support would not be welcome in the PSOE. I think Rajoy can resist until 2018 or 2019, but he's going to deal with some turbulence.

Yeah, clearly. And things like fiscal Moix's designation (and resignation) do no help matters at all. I'm not sure Rajoy can recover from all the accusations of judicial interference or the photos of him going to declare as witness in the Audiencia Nacional.
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tack50
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« Reply #1330 on: June 03, 2017, 06:23:35 am »

So does Sanchez' comeback mean that the government's days are numbered?

The return of Pedro Sánchez does not imply necessarily that Rajoy is done, but certainly adds a factor of instability to the already fragile foundations in which the government is standing. Pedro Sánchez is going to exercise a style of opposition more vocal than the managing commission that replaced him for several months. On the other hand, the PP is embattled by the never-ending corruption scandals and the parliamentary majority which allowed to pass the budget is very fragile. Rajoy's government made important economic concessions to Basque and Canarian regionalists in order to ensure some stability. Passing the budget this year will allow to extend it the following year thus the government could survive until the term is close to completion. Alternative parliamentary majorities are unworkable without Catalan separatists and their support would not be welcome in the PSOE. I think Rajoy can resist until 2018 or 2019, but he's going to deal with some turbulence.

I'd say Rajoy is probably safe until 2019. Let's look at the parties represented, from most pro Rajoy to least pro Rajoy.

PP: Well, they'll obviously support themselves XD

CC
: CC needs PP to keep a stable government in the Canary Islands (the majority would now be CC+PP+ASG support) and PP is looking forwards to entering the Canarian government and making it a formal coalition. Similarly PP needs CC for stability in Spain (although 1 MP can only get you so far but still). That makes for some easy deals.

Cs: They are probably Rajoy's most loyal support, but they don't seem happy dealing with the nationalist Canarian/Basque Parties. They also are not that tolerant to corruption (although their tolerance is still too high IMO), so a very large scandal involving Rajoy directly could force a Cs+PSOE+Podemos coalition for a new snap election like it was discussed in Murcia.

PNV: They seem to have the highest price for reaching a deal of all the nationalist parties. However, they are a right wing party in the end, so dealing with PP is not that bad for them if they can get significant concessions like with the budget.

NC: They are to PSOE what Compromís is to Podemos. A small amount of independent MPs who contested the election with the large national party, and who are more moderate than the main party. However, NC is still a left wing party, and they are very wary because they know that whatever concessions they get will not be handled by them (NC is in opposition in the Canary Islands assembly) so CC might steal their achievements and they might demoralize their left wing voters, who would move to Podemos. Then again most predictions for 2019 I've seen have NC going up, not down, but IMO the Canary Islands are probably one of the harder communities to predict. No polling doesn't help.

In any case, they are the magical "MP number 176" for a bare majority, which does give them a lot of leverage for a party with 1 MP. However, they've said they will support any PSOE led no confidence vote, so they will not keep Rajoy in government unless it's necessary.

PDECat: If they dropped their independence position, I'd probably put them ahead of PNV. However, I'm putting them here because while they won't support Rajoy on important stuff, they can support him on more minor things in exchange for stuff for Catalonia, like with the recient port reform. It's also a much easier route than the one used for the budget, as PP+Cs+PDECat does have a majority (177 seats).

PSOE: Under Susana Díaz they'd be ahead of PDECat, and possibly also ahead of NC. However now that Sánchez is the secretary general they'll have a more open opposition to Rajoy, and won't reach deals with him unless it's completely necessary. Then again there's the possibility of Sánchez going back on his word with his move to the left being just a strategy to survive as leader of the party.

From here on these parties will probably never reach a deal with Rajoy


Compromís
: Valencian nationalists, and thus they don't see PSOE as a complete competitor. Still, they contested the election with Podemos, not PSOE, which puts them quite a bit to the left. I can't see Compromís behaving like NC and dealing with Rajoy in exchange for stuff for Valencia. However of this group they are the likeliest to do so.

ERC: Putting them here because  their entire manifesto is "Independence!!!1111!!". If Rajoy decides to surrender on that for some reason, he'll get ERC.

Bildu: Same as ERC, but in Basque

Podemos: While PP+Podemos does have a majority (204 seats), they are the extremes and thus will never ever vote the same in anything.

So, the kingmakers in this case are NC (for passing important stuff), PDECat (For passing minor laws) and PNV (for stopping no confidence votes)

If Sánchez can somehow convince PNV that they will be better under a left wing PSOE government AND decides to give Catalonia a referendum, we'll get PM Pedro Sánchez via no confidence vote. Otherwise it's PM Rajoy until at least 2019 (I doubt he'll finish the 4 year term, most likely he'll call a snap election for late 2019 at the latest)
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« Reply #1331 on: June 04, 2017, 12:00:10 pm »

Talk about conflicting polls...

Metroscopia/El Pais:
Img

Link

NC Report/La Razón
36.0% PP
20.5% PSOE
20.2% UP
12.6% C's
Link

Nonetheless, i made an average of the most recent polls by polling companies and the results are:

30.9% PP
22.2% PSOE
20.3% UP
15.1% C's
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Kamala
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« Reply #1332 on: June 04, 2017, 12:27:08 pm »

What would be a good showing for each of the 4 major parties?
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tack50
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« Reply #1333 on: June 04, 2017, 01:14:14 pm »

What would be a good showing for each of the 4 major parties?

Too early to say, but IMO this are the best possible showings. Also adding 2019 regional possible pickups because it's only 2 years from no so why not:

PP: 36% or 155+ seats. Anything that allows just a PP+Cs government (without nationalists) would be pretty good though. A PP overall majority becomes a posibility if they reach at least 40%, but it's almost impossible as of now (though PP is the only party with even a chance of that. I'd give it a 5% chance).

In terms of 2019 pickups, basically all PSOE led governments are a possible pickup, though obviously some are harder than others. A good night in 2019 would probably have PP picking up Valencia, Balearic Islands, Aragon, Castille-La Mancha and Cantabria (all from PSOE except Cantabria, who would be picked up from left wing regionalists), and holding Madrid. The Canary Islands' electoral system is too ed up for PP to win, Andalucía and Extremadura are very strong PSOE strongholds and there's no way PP is picking up Catalonia or Navarra. Finally I think PSOE is safe in Asturias. Their main competitor might be Podemos actually.

PSOE

Improving on their most recient results (22.5%, 90 seats) would be pretty good for PSOE. Ideally 25% or more, or reaching 100 seats would be a very good night for them. Reaching Rubalcaba 2011 levels (29%, 110 seats) is their ceiling IMO, and that's also very unlikely.

As for regions in 2019 they'll be playing defense as they had a very good night back then. So a good night will probably have PSOE holding all governors (ie no net change). Their only reasonable pickup seems Madrid. However one thing to keep in mind is that all PSOE governors but one (Francina Armengol, Balearic Islands) were anti-Sánchez in the primary and while Sánchez has said he won't fire anyone, that might still be an issue.

UP

Becoming the 2nd largest party (above PSOE) for good would be a good showing. A very good one might be 100+ seats or 26%+ of the vote.

In regional terms, Aragon (Echenique is very well known) and Asturias seem their best chances at a pickup. Maybe Madrid as well if Errejón gets momentum (the PSOE leader there is also very popular)

Cs

17% of the vote or 60+ seats would be a really good showing.

In regional terms there's no place where Cs might be able to form a government. Catalonia is their best chance at a regional pickup (they are the official opposition there), but even that's unlikely unless unionists become stronger and a Cs+PP+PSC government becomes possible
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tack50
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« Reply #1334 on: June 05, 2017, 07:42:12 am »

GAD3/ABC poll:

PP 30.7% (127 seats)
PSOE 25.9% (100 seats)
UP 17.8% (56 seats)
Cs 15.4 (41 seats)

ERC 2.9% (12 seats)
PDECat 1.5% (5 seats)
PNV 1.4% (6 seats)

If this one was true, there is a slight Sánchez effect (PSOE is up 15 seats and 3.4%). However polls aren't agreeing on that so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-baja-pero-sigue-primero-y-psoe-recupera-millon-votos-podemos-201706050308_noticia.html
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1335 on: June 05, 2017, 09:09:54 am »

GAD3/ABC poll:

PP 30.7% (127 seats)
PSOE 25.9% (100 seats)
UP 17.8% (56 seats)
Cs 15.4 (41 seats)

ERC 2.9% (12 seats)
PDECat 1.5% (5 seats)
PNV 1.4% (6 seats)

If this one was true, there is a slight Sánchez effect (PSOE is up 15 seats and 3.4%). However polls aren't agreeing on that so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-baja-pero-sigue-primero-y-psoe-recupera-millon-votos-podemos-201706050308_noticia.html

Do they agree if we exclude Metroscopia? They are always the biggest outlier
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tack50
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« Reply #1336 on: June 05, 2017, 09:41:10 am »

GAD3/ABC poll:

PP 30.7% (127 seats)
PSOE 25.9% (100 seats)
UP 17.8% (56 seats)
Cs 15.4 (41 seats)

ERC 2.9% (12 seats)
PDECat 1.5% (5 seats)
PNV 1.4% (6 seats)

If this one was true, there is a slight Sánchez effect (PSOE is up 15 seats and 3.4%). However polls aren't agreeing on that so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-baja-pero-sigue-primero-y-psoe-recupera-millon-votos-podemos-201706050308_noticia.html

Do they agree if we exclude Metroscopia? They are always the biggest outlier

Not really. NC Report has PP a lot higher and PSOE a lot lower. UP and Cs are also not the same (although they are closer). Anyways, if you average the 3 polls you get:

PP 30.9%
PSOE 23.1%
UP 19.4%
Cs 15.6%

So compared to June 2016, PP is down by 2, PSOE up by 0.5, UP down by 1.5 and Cs up by 2.5
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1337 on: June 06, 2017, 02:55:41 pm »

GAD3/ABC poll:

PP 30.7% (127 seats)
PSOE 25.9% (100 seats)
UP 17.8% (56 seats)
Cs 15.4 (41 seats)

ERC 2.9% (12 seats)
PDECat 1.5% (5 seats)
PNV 1.4% (6 seats)

If this one was true, there is a slight Sánchez effect (PSOE is up 15 seats and 3.4%). However polls aren't agreeing on that so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-baja-pero-sigue-primero-y-psoe-recupera-millon-votos-podemos-201706050308_noticia.html

Do they agree if we exclude Metroscopia? They are always the biggest outlier

Not really. NC Report has PP a lot higher and PSOE a lot lower. UP and Cs are also not the same (although they are closer). Anyways, if you average the 3 polls you get:

PP 30.9%
PSOE 23.1%
UP 19.4%
Cs 15.6%

So compared to June 2016, PP is down by 2, PSOE up by 0.5, UP down by 1.5 and Cs up by 2.5

Seems about right. Although considering the implications of Sanchez's election and Operación Lezo and the incoming  visit of Rajoy to the Audiencia Nacional and the optics of it, we need to look at the trend.
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tack50
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« Reply #1338 on: June 09, 2017, 06:40:31 am »

Catalan premier Puigdemont has anounced the date and question of their referendum. It will take place on the 1st of October and the question will be: "Do you want Catalonia to be an independent state in the form of a republic?"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/06/09/inenglish/1496995696_161601.html

Seems like an odd choice in the 2nd part (the form of Republic). I thought that was implied? Did anyone expect Catalonia to become independent but keep the monarchy?

My question now is if it will end like the 2014 one or if some unionists will go out and vote even if it's meaningless. Supposedly it's a binding referendum, but most likely it won't happen. I bet it will be ruled unconstitutional before tomorrow.
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tack50
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« Reply #1339 on: June 12, 2017, 05:25:37 am »

Cadena SER/My word poll:

http://cadenaser.com/ser/2017/06/11/politica/1497169995_755970.html

PP: 28.6%
PSOE: 24.8%
UP: 18.9%
Cs: 15.7%

The most interesting question IMO is this one though:

¿Who would make the best prime minister?

Pedro Sánchez: 31.1%
Albert Rivera: 28.5%
Pablo Iglesias: 24.8%
Mariano Rajoy: 15.6%

I wonder how is Pedro Sánchez so high! I get Rivera since he does have very high approval ratings, but Sanchez and Iglesias seem too high and Rajoy seems too low. Half of PP voters preferring Rivera over Rajoy! And I thought most internal critics of Rajoy came from his right (like former PM Aznar), not from his left.

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tack50
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« Reply #1340 on: June 13, 2017, 03:45:05 pm »

And day 1 (of 2 apparently) of Iglesias' no confidence vote is over. Tomorrow apparently the 4 main parties will talk (PP, PSOE, Podemos and allies and Cs), with today only seeing Rajoy (incumbent PM), Iglesias (PM alternative) and Irene Montero (Speaker of the group who presented the no confidence vote), as well as the speakers from the regionalist parties.

As for who won, nobody knows. Everyone will defend his party of course, and almost no one will watch the 8 hours or so that the full debate lasted (plus tomorrow's interventions).
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« Reply #1341 on: June 14, 2017, 07:05:06 am »

Podemos passed the test and got a good mark. Irene Montero, who is the UP parliamentary spokeswoman, was particularly good in her role whipping the government and the PP for their intolerable corruption. Montero revealed herself as a good parliamentarian and has the makings of a leader. To the surprise of many, Mariano Rajoy replied personally the long opening statement made by Montero. Later Pablo Iglesias came to stage playing a more "institutional" role as the alternative candidate and had a long dialectical exchange with Mariano Rajoy. Both Rajoy and Iglesias were correct. The polarization PP-Podemos is mutually beneficial for them.

Today Albert Rivera and the new PSOE spokesman José Luis Ábalos came to stage. Acrimonious exchange between Rivera and Iglesias. More politeness between Ábalos and Iglesias. In absence of Pedro Sánchez (he resigned as MP when the Rajoy's investiture took place) Ábalos can be a good spokesman for the PSOE.
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tack50
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« Reply #1342 on: June 14, 2017, 09:28:15 am »

Results of the no confidence vote. Requires 176 votes in favour (an overall majority)

Yea (82)Sad Podemos, Compromís, ERC, Bildu

Nay (170): PP, Cs, CC

Abstaining (98)Sad PSOE, NC, PDECat, PNV

No big surprises tbh. I do wonder slightly about some of the small regional parties but for the most part there were no big surprises.

Also, watching CC's very harsh intervention a deal between Podemos and CC is out of the window now (PSOE+UP+ERC+PDECat+Bildu+CC).

In other words the only 2 viable routes for a successful no confidence vote are:
PSOE+Cs+UP
PSOE+UP+PNV+ERC+PDECat.

Then again neither route is particularly likely.
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« Reply #1343 on: June 14, 2017, 09:48:54 am »

Will ERC or PDECat even vote beside the PSOE after Sanchéz said he's also against the referendum? And i don't see PNV vote a alongside Podemos on anything actually.
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« Reply #1344 on: June 14, 2017, 01:32:39 pm »

Alternative majorities are unworkable with the current composition of parliament.

Despite its foregone conclusion, I guess the motion served its purpose. Actually it worked as a general policy debate. Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero performed better than I expected. Also, despite his skills as parliamentarian, Mariano Rajoy can't reply anything against the overwhelming evidence. His party is officially a "criminal organization". Thus Mariano Rajoy bypassed the question, invoking the macroeconomic performance of his government and warning about the potentially disastrous effects of having Pablo Iglesias in government.
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tack50
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« Reply #1345 on: June 17, 2017, 09:20:05 am »
« Edited: June 17, 2017, 09:27:07 am by tack50 »

Simple Lógica poll

http://electomania.es/20170616simplelogica/

PP: 29.9%
PSOE: 25.3%
UP: 18.6%
Cs: 16.8%
Others: 9.4%

Approval ratings

Mariano Rajoy: 28,5%

Pedro Sánchez 29%
Pablo Iglesias 20,5%
Albert Rivera 40%
Alberto Garzón 29,7%

Spanish politicians for some reason always have terrible approval ratings. When was the last time the Spanish PM had a positive approval rating? (Ie either at least a 5/10 or positive net approval). I guess Zapatero early in his term? (2006 or so, I found a 2007 poll which put him at only -3 net approval)

Also, the "Sánchez effect" is confirmed. And how long will it last though? Considering he has moderated himself after winning, I can't see it being permanent. He wants to push for a PSOE+Cs+UP deal, which is impossible. Most people are saying that we've basically returned to early 2016 politically except this time with a government.

I keep hearing that Rajoy will not pass a budget for 2018, instead just using 2017's budget, and probably call a snap election in late 2018/early 2019. I hope it's 2018. 2019 has way too many elections already: there's the regional ones, the EU parliament one and assuming they don't call snap elections, the Andalusian and Catalan ones (this last one is almost certain to be a snap election next year though, because of the pruces)
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tack50
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« Reply #1346 on: June 23, 2017, 05:05:44 pm »

Ok, so today the New York Times published an editorial piece about Catalonia, encouraging the government to do a legal referendum.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/23/opinion/catalonias-challenge-to-spain.html?ref=opinion&referer=http://www.elperiodico.com/es/

I guess the prucés is becoming kinda internationalized after all? I mean, an editorial is not much, but the NYT is probably one of the most respected newspapers worldwide. Then again no countries support the Catalan government.

My prediction for the "referendum" is a repeat of 2014, ie low turnout and 90% yes. Maybe slightly better (say, 50% turnout and 70% yes votes)
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« Reply #1347 on: June 24, 2017, 05:50:40 pm »

The editorial encourages to find a political solution., which includes a legal referendum. NYT does not support the independence of Catalonia.

Quote
A more capable central government could head off independence fervor by giving the region a better economic return. Catalonia contributes nearly a fifth of Spain’s gross domestic product, yet the region receives just 9.5 percent of Spain’s national budget. Negotiating in good faith with Catalan leaders to find a political solution, rather than relying on the judiciary’s restrictive interpretation of the Constitution to punish Catalan efforts for greater autonomy, would also help.

The best outcome for Spain would be to permit the referendum, and for Catalan voters to reject independence — as voters in Quebec and Scotland have done. Otherwise, Madrid’s intransigence will only inflame Catalan frustrations.

I concur that would be one of the best possible outcomes for this terrible mess.
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« Reply #1348 on: July 04, 2017, 09:32:19 pm »

Quote from: Euronews
Catalonia has vowed to declare independence from Spain within 48 hours if a majority of voters back the move in an October referendum.

Pro secessionist parties have proposed a draft bill which will ask if locals want the wealthy region to be an independent nation. If they say no, fresh elections will be called.
http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/04/catalonia-vows-to-split-from-span-in-48-hours---after-october-vote

Supposing that the referendum takes place and the independentists win with the other side boycotting the vote, what happens next? Would Madrid send in soldiers? Or would they do that before the vote?
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« Reply #1349 on: July 05, 2017, 01:15:19 am »

Quote from: Euronews
Catalonia has vowed to declare independence from Spain within 48 hours if a majority of voters back the move in an October referendum.

Pro secessionist parties have proposed a draft bill which will ask if locals want the wealthy region to be an independent nation. If they say no, fresh elections will be called.
http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/04/catalonia-vows-to-split-from-span-in-48-hours---after-october-vote

Supposing that the referendum takes place and the independentists win with the other side boycotting the vote, what happens next? Would Madrid send in soldiers? Or would they do that before the vote?

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170704/423891438758/cospedal-fuerzas-armadas-soberania-espana.html

The Spanish Defense minister says as much, but its empty rhetoric. More likely is that you have the Guarda Civil walk in to the Mossos (the Catalan local police) and take over the law institutions. Also the organisers of the referendum will be tried like Artur Mas was.
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