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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 287846 times)
Helsinkian
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« Reply #1425 on: October 03, 2017, 04:45:23 pm »


Felipe, the current King.
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tack50
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« Reply #1426 on: October 05, 2017, 07:22:59 am »

As part of the most recient CIS poll (which also said that Catalonia and terrorism have spiked as worries for Spaniards), there was apparently a question about centralism and federalism (which is always there) that I think could be interesting considering the current situation in Catalonia:

Please tell with which of these proposals for Spain's territorial organization do you agree with the most:

A state without autonomous communities: 18.9%
A state where autonomous communities have less powers than currently: 10.5%
A state with autonomous communities like we currently have: 36.8%
A state where autonomous communities have more powers than as of now: 15.8%
A state where autonomous communities would have the chance to become independent: 9.6%

Joining options 1 and 2 and 4 and 5 you probably get something like this:

Centralism: 29.4%
Status Quo: 36.8%
Federalism/Independence: 25.4%

As for party crosstabs, PP voters prefer centralism in general (47.6-38.5-7). PSOE prefers the status quo. Interestingly centralism beats federalism even though PSOE is the only party that explicitly calls for a federal state (23.9-49.4-19.2). Podemos voters prefer federalism/independence (25.3-32.5-41.3) and finally Cs voters also prefer centralism (44.5-32.5-17.5) though are slighly more moderate than PP ones as they prefer less autonomy over no autonomies at all.

And obviously those that voted for Catalan nationalist parties want independence. PNV voters want the status quo or more (4.5-54.5-40.9)

http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3187rei_A.pdf

Other crosstabs are available as well (by gender, by age, etc)

http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/NoticiasNovedades/InfoCIS/2017/Documentacion_3187.html

Interestingly these numbers show a drop in support for the status quo and those who want independence. Those who want more central government have been increasing. Federalists have stayed flat. 
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mgop
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« Reply #1427 on: October 06, 2017, 05:45:03 am »

spain losing another part of territory. they didn't learn nothing in last 200 years.
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tack50
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« Reply #1428 on: October 10, 2017, 05:56:17 pm »
« Edited: October 10, 2017, 06:03:57 pm by tack50 »

Well, it's official guys, Puigdemont actually did it! The absolute madman! He declared independence for all of 8 seconds before going back on his word and suspending the independence declaration for the sake of dialog (because of course Rajoy has been so open to it).

So now apparently an independent Catalonia has the somewhat dubious honor of being the shortest lived state and third shortest lived state in history respectively.

Image Link

Now seriously, Puigdemont basically went to the Catalan parliament, implicitly declared independence (though he didn't say "I declare the independence of the Catalan Republic" or anything like that, he just hinted at it) and he inmediately suspended it.

I'm not sure if I should be disappointed or relieved. Tomorrow Rajoy will speak in the Congress of Deputies. Also tomorrow everyone expects the Constitutional Court to declare the indepependence declaration illegal.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/10/10/inenglish/1507620922_401849.html

As for reactions, the unionists (PSC, PP, Cs) are obviously unhappy with this. CUP is also unhappy, they wanted an explicit independence declaration that was effective inmediately. Maybe they'll break their deal, leading to an early election? Surprisingly, Podemos has been quite positive that they haven't declared independence outright and went for more talks.
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The Saint
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« Reply #1429 on: October 10, 2017, 06:04:44 pm »

Well, it's official guys, Puigdemont actually did it! The absolute madman! He declared independence for all of 8 seconds before going back on his word and suspending the independence declaration for the sake of dialog (because of course Rajoy has been so open to it).

So now apparently an independent Catalonia has the somewhat dubious honor of being the shortest lived state and third shortest lived state in history respectively.

Image Link

Now seriously, Puigdemont basically went to the Catalan parliament, implicitly declared independence (though he didn't say "I declare the independence of the Catalan Republic" or anything like that, he just hinted at it) and he inmediately suspended it.

I'm not sure if I should be disappointed or relieved. Tomorrow Rajoy will speak in the Congress of Deputies. Also tomorrow everyone expects the Constitutional Court to declare the indepependence declaration illegal.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/10/10/inenglish/1507620922_401849.html

As for reactions, the unionists (PSC, PP, Cs) are obviously unhappy with this. CUP is also unhappy, they wanted an explicit independence declaration that was effective inmediately. Maybe they'll break their deal, leading to an early election? Surprisingly, Podemos has been quite positive that they haven't declared independence outright and went for more talks.

"We are seceding from Spain...at an undetermined time!"
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« Reply #1430 on: October 10, 2017, 09:41:10 pm »

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-ciudadanos-sube-18-escanos-y-desbanca-podemos-tercer-puesto-201710082154_noticia.html

http://www.electograph.com/2017/10/espana-sondeo-gad3-generales-octubre.html

Support for PP down while Ciudadanos is going up. C's Benefiting from the negative reaction against Independence as well as the Guardia Civil being sent to stop voting that resulted in violence.
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The Saint
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« Reply #1431 on: October 10, 2017, 09:46:08 pm »

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-ciudadanos-sube-18-escanos-y-desbanca-podemos-tercer-puesto-201710082154_noticia.html

http://www.electograph.com/2017/10/espana-sondeo-gad3-generales-octubre.html

Support for PP down while Ciudadanos is going up. C's Benefiting from the negative reaction against Independence as well as the Guardia Civil being sent to stop voting that resulted in violence.

I'd say this is pretty expected.  I am surprised that PP didn't fall by more, though.
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« Reply #1432 on: October 10, 2017, 09:46:17 pm »

Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.
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« Reply #1433 on: October 10, 2017, 10:45:38 pm »

Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.
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tack50
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« Reply #1434 on: October 11, 2017, 06:44:46 am »

Yesterday's weird "non declaration of independence" has been responded with an equally weird "non activation of article 155". Rajoy has asked the Catalan government if they have actually declared independence or not.

More interestingly, PSOE has said that they have reached an agreement with PP. They will support activating article 155, in exchange for a constitutional reform in 6 months. However that constitutional reform won't include a referendum.

I can see the reform making no one happy, with Podemos and nationalists voting against it since it lacks a referendum and Cs voting against it as they've been moving to the right of PP reciently.

PSOE+PP has the numbers for a light constitutional reform, but not for a large one. And it would require a referendum

Depending on how ambitious they want to be they might have to talk with Cs and Podemos or not.
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« Reply #1435 on: October 14, 2017, 11:34:26 am »

Catalonia crisis pushed C above Podemos in latest poll

Image Link

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2017-10-14/independencia-cataluna-estimacion-de-voto-ciudadanos-podemos-pp-psoe_1460752/
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tack50
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« Reply #1436 on: October 19, 2017, 05:08:07 am »

All ultimatums given by the Spanish government before they activate article 155 have expired. So article 155 will be activated and the government in Madrid will take back control of certain competences for a while.

However, this won't happen until Saturday, when the government will go to the Senate and vote a proposal for applying article 155 which requires an absolute majority (not a problem, PP alone already has one, and they also have PSOE and Cs support, meaning that 80% of the Senate is in favour)

In the mean time Puigdemont has threatened to vote the declaration of independence and actually do it for real this time.

As for how this is affecting parties, Podemos seems to be stuck at 17-18%. PP and PSOE have dropped and Cs has dramatically increased to the point where it's now tied with Podemos for third place. I guess Podemos is getting their base of people who want a soft response but nobody else, while Cs is getting hardliners from PSOE and PP. That poll is not an outlier.
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tack50
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« Reply #1437 on: October 21, 2017, 10:16:29 am »
« Edited: October 21, 2017, 10:19:06 am by tack50 »

We finally have details about how article 155 will work. The government will basically fire Puidemont and his entire cabinet, taking control of Catalonia's institutions temporarily (the generalitat won't be dissolved technically, but it will become an empty puppet). The government will call a snap election in 6 months or less.

Puigdemont still has some time to react as the Senate won't vote on this until the 27th. In fact many are saying that he should call a parliamentary vote and declare independence on Monday.

As for the Senate vote, it will get roughly 80% of the Senate in favour. The expected result is this:

Yea (216): PP*+PSOE+Cs

Nay (46): Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV+Bildu+Compromís

Unsure (4): ASG (party of a "cacique" in La Gomera)+CC+NCa

* PP includes the senators from UPN in Navarra, Foro in Asturias and PAR in Aragon.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #1438 on: October 21, 2017, 12:02:24 pm »

What will happen if the independence supporters win the new election as well?
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tack50
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« Reply #1439 on: October 22, 2017, 06:24:05 am »

Nobody really knows. I guess the current Catalan government stays in place. It would be a bad outcome though, as they would likely keep pushing for independence, which would lead to article 155 being activated again, new elections again, etc

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tack50
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« Reply #1440 on: October 27, 2017, 02:55:25 pm »
« Edited: October 27, 2017, 03:02:42 pm by tack50 »

Yesterday we thought that Puigdemont actually might surrender and call a snap election but in the end he refused because Rajoy wouldn't give amnesty to the leaders of the 2 largest civil society lobbying groups for independence and immunity to Puigdemont and his cabinet or something like that. What a shame Sad

Anyways today 2 important things regarding Catalonia happened.

First, the Catalan parliament declared independence, for real this time, not just 8 seconds. The vote went as expected, civil servants saying it was illegal, unionists boycotting the vote, etc. The final result was:

Yes: 70
No: 10
Blank: 2

The vote was by secret ballot, so we can't really know for sure how many defectors there were on either side. JxSí+CUP have 72 MPs while CQSP has 11 so we can assume that there were a few defectors on both sides.

The other weird thing is that the actual independence declaration was not in the law itself but on the preamble, which almost never has actual effects, but it's still part of the law. Not much difference


Shortly after, the Spanish senate finally passed article 155. The end result was as follows:

Yes: 214 (PP+PSOE+Cs+CC-AHI+Foro+UPN)
No: 47 (Podemos+PDECat+ERC+PNV+Bildu+Compromís)
Abstaining: 1 (NCa)

And right as I write this, Rajoy has activated article 155 for real. This means the Puigdemont and his cabinet have been fired, the Catalan devolved police placed under direct control from the Spanish ministry of the interior, and the Catalan government are basically puppets of the Spanish government. A snap election in Catalonia has been called for the 21st of December, the earliest date allowed by the law (a snap election needs to be called at least 2 months in advance).

Terrible situation all around, literally the worst case "trains crashing" scenario. Today is a sad day in Spain's history Sad
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« Reply #1441 on: October 27, 2017, 03:08:06 pm »

The only sensible solution to me seems to be to turn Spain into a proper federal country.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1442 on: October 28, 2017, 08:15:23 am »

I have to imagine the recent events would push PSOE support to both Podemos and PP/C in non-Catalonia Spain.  Would be eager to see post-Oct 27 polls.
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tack50
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« Reply #1443 on: November 01, 2017, 05:44:44 pm »
« Edited: November 01, 2017, 06:19:16 pm by tack50 »

I have to imagine the recent events would push PSOE support to both Podemos and PP/C in non-Catalonia Spain.  Would be eager to see post-Oct 27 polls.

Well, we finally have some Catalan polls for the December 21st election after everything that has happened (we have actually had them for a while but they were outdated the moment they came out). The first poll taken after Puigdemont left to Belgium has this result:

Image Link
 
Secessionists still have a bare majority of 1 (68-67). Interestingly, PDECat's candidate might not be in favour of unilateral independence, but instead switching back to the positions of CiU before 2012, while defending a referendum with approval from Spain like Podemos!

The only declared candidate thus far, is Santi Vila, former regional minister of business (2017), culture (2016-2017) and territory and sustainability (2012-2016) has those positions. In fact he actually resigned shortly before the declaration of independence. Then again he might not remain as the only candidate for long, or maybe he'll run unopposed, who knows?

In fact PDECat is not the only party with an internal schism. Pablo Iglesias has "article 155-ed" his party's branch in Catalonia and forced a referendum on whether they should go in coalition with only Ada Colau's party and allies. This is because their regional leader there, Dante Fachín, is actually in favour of independence and wanted an alliance with ERC

And of course it's still not clear whether CUP will contest the election or not. They say that it will be decided by the party membership.

As for general election polls, not many yet though the general direction seems to be Cs up, everyone else going down a bit.

Also, just realized that if Catalonia actually goes out to vote on December 21st, the election will actually be held on a Thursday instead of a Sunday! This might depress turnout though I think workers are allowed by law to have at least 2 hours free at work to be able to go out and vote.

Now, there have been elections held on workdays, but they aren't common, especially not in our recient history. The first 3 general elections (1977, 1979, 1982) were indeed held on workdays (Wednesday for the first 2, Thursday for 1982). And the 1976, 1978 and 1986 referendums were also held on a workday. And even Catalonia's first regional election (1980) was held on a Thirsday indeed

But outside Spain's early democratic history there aren't many examples. The 2006 Catalan election was held on a Wednesday, but that was a public holiday (November 1st, all saints day) so it doesn't really count.

Seems like an odd move but apparently Rajoy preferred to call the election on a workday rather than wait a little longer.
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« Reply #1444 on: November 03, 2017, 07:46:24 pm »

Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.
If only Susana Diaz had won...
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1445 on: November 03, 2017, 09:11:09 pm »

Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.
If only Susana Diaz had won...

If Susana Diaz won, the three major parties would be PP, C and Podemos. C does already have the centrist centralist electorate and electors usually prefer the original.
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Blairite
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« Reply #1446 on: November 04, 2017, 07:25:47 pm »

Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.
If only Susana Diaz had won...

If Susana Diaz won, the three major parties would be PP, C and Podemos. C does already have the centrist centralist electorate and electors usually prefer the original.
And the current leader is pretty much a Podemos rep.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1447 on: November 07, 2017, 10:57:15 am »

CIS (Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas) poll from October:

Image Link

Poll conducted between 2 and 11 October. Polled 2,487 voters. MoE of 2.0%.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1448 on: November 07, 2017, 05:57:21 pm »

Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.
If only Susana Diaz had won...

If Susana Diaz won, the three major parties would be PP, C and Podemos. C does already have the centrist centralist electorate and electors usually prefer the original.
And the current leader is pretty much a Podemos rep.

^wtf

On a side note we had a host of Catalan mayors march into the European Quarter to hold some speeches, and Addidas have released the Spain World Cup kit with the Republican flag on it, triggering the entire Spanish Right-wig twittersphere, and according to the Spanish football federation "people right from the top".

Image Link


Also apparently Vox is given a seat in some nationwide polls? I thought they faded to irrelevance? Who is leading them these days?
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« Reply #1449 on: November 07, 2017, 06:00:53 pm »

Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.
If only Susana Diaz had won...

I, too, wish they had chose someone who would've been the final nail in the coffin for the PSOE.
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