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tack50
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« Reply #1475 on: November 26, 2017, 08:01:17 am »

Yeah, a tripartit 2.0 seems like an unlikely possibility given how much ERC and PSC hate each other. If Catalonia's independence wasn't on the table it would easily happen but I think independence is too big of an obstacle.

If secessionsists lose their majority it's one of the more realistic possibilities though. Maybe there's some variant of that like say, an ERC-Podemos minority government supported by JxCat, CUP or PSC depending on the votes

Of course, if secessionists keep their majority that option won't be considered.
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« Reply #1476 on: November 26, 2017, 09:28:07 am »

Given that Sanchez indicated that constitutional reform was now a guarentee in exchange for him to have supported article 155, if I were in ERC's position, I would still negotiate with PSOE in order to take a constitutional compromise at the national level. In exchange, ERC would get PSOE to collapse the Rajoy government and campaign on an explicit federalist platform as a reconciliatory exercise. Its not independence but its the best they can hope for, short term.

I doubt there are many federalists left in the PSOE higher-ups, apart from Sanchez (if he even is a federalist), and even less non-DUI ERC members too. I guess the issue is also that both parties (ERC, PSC) have direct competitors advocating a hardline approach to the Catalan national issue (CUP, C's), so compromise and more elections is a risky business. No True Scotsman-style nationalism is hard to stop these days.
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tack50
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« Reply #1477 on: December 04, 2017, 07:29:58 am »
« Edited: December 04, 2017, 07:37:25 am by tack50 »

Tonight at midnight will officially begin the electoral campaign for the Catalan regional election. And just in time for that, Cs gets its first polling lead ever!

CIS

ERC: 32 (20,8%)
JxCatalunya: 25-26 (16,9%)
CUP: 9 (6,7%)

Cs: 31-32 (22,5%)
PSC: 21 (16%)
PP: 7 (5,8%)

Catalunya En Comú-Podem: 9 (8,6%)

Secessionists: 44,4%
Unionists: 47,1%
Mixed: 8,6%

PP becomes even more irrelevant in Catalonia and gets its worst result since 1991. It would also be a bad election for Podemos as they would get their worst result since 2003 (as ICV-EUiA)

Also, no government seems viable with those numbers IMO. A tripartit 2.0; a pure unionist and a pure secessionist government all lack a majority. I guess either Catalonia goes to a 2nd election or Podemos actually picks a side (most likely secessionists via abstaining).

http://cadenaser.com/ser/2017/12/04/politica/1512382472_552688.html

Though it's not the only recient poll. Here's another one.

Sociométrica/El Español

Img
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« Reply #1478 on: December 04, 2017, 11:15:05 am »

If PP were to somehow drop out of the Catalan parliament entirely (lmao) could you get a C's-PSOE-Podemos alliance, or are C's too right for Podemos?
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tack50
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« Reply #1479 on: December 04, 2017, 01:30:43 pm »

If PP were to somehow drop out of the Catalan parliament entirely (lmao) could you get a C's-PSOE-Podemos alliance, or are C's too right for Podemos?

Well, PP falling short and getting 0 seats is almost unimaginable. To get seats you need at least 3% in one province. Of course in practice the 3% threshold only applies to Barcelona, everywhere else it's higher. And PP seems to be stronger than average in Barcelona (as expected for a unionist party), so they might need to drop even lower, to like 2.7% or so, in order to lose all their seats.

For reference, Cs entered the Catalan parliament in 2006 with exactly 3% of the vote (3.5% in Barcelona) and the Andalusian Socialist Party (an Andalusian nationalist party which bizarrely contested the 1980 Catalan election) managed to get a seat with 2.7% of the vote (3% in Barcelona)

I don't think it's possible at all for PP to lose all their seats. Even in a worst case scenario they'd drop all the way to 4 or so (losing all their non-Barcelona seats in the process), but not completely drop out. Same with CUP and Podemos.

Still, if it somehow happened a Cs-PSC-Podemos deal would be too right wing for Podemos. Remember we already saw the same scenario happen at the national level right after the 2015 election and Podemos voted against the PSOE-Cs deal (and with PSOE on top in fact!). Granted, Catalonia's circumstances make it different but even then if Arrimadas is the candidate I don't see it. Maybe they could support a minority PSC government if PSC somehow became the largest unionist force (or Cs allowed them to be regional president even if they are far from being the largest party, kind of like Cantabria 2003) but I'm not sure if that might happen.
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coloniac
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« Reply #1480 on: December 04, 2017, 02:03:23 pm »

But the unionist alliance (C-PSC-PP) is possible? Surely hard for PSC too.
Look like there is no clear way out.
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« Reply #1481 on: December 04, 2017, 03:00:18 pm »

I was thinking that CUP are able to get away propping up a conservative party like CiU, or whatever they're called now.
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The Saint
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« Reply #1482 on: December 04, 2017, 03:57:48 pm »

Yay for Cs!
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tack50
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« Reply #1483 on: December 05, 2017, 08:12:32 pm »
« Edited: December 05, 2017, 08:15:33 pm by tack50 »

Here are some posters from the campaign:

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No permission for being free, nor apologizing for actually being free

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Democracy always wins

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Puigdemont, our president

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We have a lot in common (kind of a pun with the party name: "Catalunya en comú"

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Now yes, we will vote (reference to "we will vote", which secessionists used during the illegal 1st of October referendum)

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Solutions! Now Iceta!

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Spain is the solution.

Seems like PSC and JxCat are running a presidential style campaign. That seems to be working in both cases, particularly JxCat, who seems to be rising a lot. Seems like they've been having the best campaign so far. Interestingly their posters seem to have copied Podemos
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tack50
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« Reply #1484 on: December 06, 2017, 05:02:27 pm »
« Edited: December 06, 2017, 05:07:14 pm by tack50 »

Even more shocking polls! Not sure how accurate they'll be (Spanish pollsters have failed miserably reciently) but whatever. From oldest (yesterday) to newest (today):

Invymark for La Sexta

Img


Feedback for elnacional.cat

ERC: 24% (35-36)
JxCat: 17.1% (25)
CUP: 6.4% (8 )

Cs: 22.8% (31-32)

PSC: 13.5% (19-20)
PP: 6.2% (7)

CeC: 9.3% (11)

Secessionists: 47.5% (68-69)
Unionists: 42.5% (55-56)
Neutral/others: 10% (11)

Internal PP poll

ERC: 36
JxCat: 22
CUP: 8

Cs: 30
PSC: 23
PP: 11

CeC: 5

Gesop for El Periódico de Catalunya

Img


Img


Secessionists: 45.8%
Unionists: 43.8%
Others: 10.4%

Of these 4 polls the Invymark-La Sexta and Gesop-El Periódico ones are probably the most reliable. The elnacional.cat one might be good but it may have a secessionsist bias. The PP internal is almost certainly junk. Lol at CeC at 5 seats
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1485 on: December 06, 2017, 05:05:53 pm »

Apologies if already asked - but PSC seem to be coming out of all of this quite well. Any reason why?
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tack50
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« Reply #1486 on: December 06, 2017, 06:12:10 pm »

^
There could be several. I guess that's it's a combination of:

-PSC is the only pure unionist left wing force. Podemos seems to have moved closer to the secessionists after all these events so some Podemos voters may be going back to PSC

-PSC did an alliance with Unió, a conservative nationalist but not secessionist party. PSC seems to also have adopted some soft nationalism. So some soft nationalists that don't want independence might be willing to vote PSC
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coloniac
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« Reply #1487 on: December 06, 2017, 06:17:50 pm »
« Edited: December 08, 2017, 02:10:08 pm by coloniac »

^
There could be several. I guess that's it's a combination of:

-PSC is the only pure unionist left wing force. Podemos seems to have moved closer to the secessionists after all these events so some Podemos voters may be going back to PSC

-PSC did an alliance with Unió, a conservative nationalist but not secessionist party. PSC seems to also have adopted some soft nationalism. So some soft nationalists that don't want independence might be willing to vote PSC

Do you think the traditional Baix Llogrebat and non-catalanist industrial parts in Barcelona comarca will vote PSC or switch to Arrimadas and C's?

Also the vote transfers seem to suggest they are benefiting from CatCom's collapse as you suggest.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171205/433434206682/elecciones-catalanas-sangria-votos-xavier-garcia-albiol-ines-arrimadas-cis.html
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Mike88
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« Reply #1488 on: December 06, 2017, 06:39:03 pm »

Yikes! The polls are a mess.

Tack, we are following here very carefully the elections because, as we say here, "When Spain sneezes, Portugal catches pneumonia", and the main doubt we have here is what kind of coalitions can emerge from this. Can PSC and ERC make some kind of agreement to force constitutional reforms, or is ERC to much cornered in the independent side to even dialogue with PSC? Looking to the overall picture, it seems to me that PSC can play a major role on what kind of government Catalonia will have.
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tack50
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« Reply #1489 on: December 06, 2017, 07:10:49 pm »

^
There could be several. I guess that's it's a combination of:

-PSC is the only pure unionist left wing force. Podemos seems to have moved closer to the secessionists after all these events so some Podemos voters may be going back to PSC

-PSC did an alliance with Unió, a conservative nationalist but not secessionist party. PSC seems to also have adopted some soft nationalism. So some soft nationalists that don't want independence might be willing to vote PSC

Do you think the traditional Baix Llogrebat non-catalanist industrial parts in Barcelona comarca will vote PSC or switch to Arrimadas and C's?

Also the vote transfers seem to suggest they are benefiting from CatCom's collapse as you suggest.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171205/433434206682/elecciones-catalanas-sangria-votos-xavier-garcia-albiol-ines-arrimadas-cis.html

They already switched in 2015 for the most part. I could certainly see them switching back to PSC though.
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tack50
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« Reply #1490 on: December 06, 2017, 07:40:38 pm »

Yikes! The polls are a mess.

Tack, we are following here very carefully the elections because, as we say here, "When Spain sneezes, Portugal catches pneumonia", and the main doubt we have here is what kind of coalitions can emerge from this. Can PSC and ERC make some kind of agreement to force constitutional reforms, or is ERC to much cornered in the independent side to even dialogue with PSC? Looking to the overall picture, it seems to me that PSC can play a major role on what kind of government Catalonia will have.

To be fair, unless Portugal also has some secessionist region I wouldn't read much into this regional election. Tongue Spain's and Portugal's politics are somewhat comparable I guess, particularly in non-nationalist communities. But definitely not Catalan politics.

In theory a PSC-ERC alliance wouldn't be that difficult or unprecedented. Catalonia was ruled by a PSC-ERC-ICV allliance between 2003 and 2010 after all. I'm not sure if they would be able to work together. Remember that a constitutional reform would need the support not just of PSOE and Podemos but also PP and a referendum in all of Spain. So support in exchange for reforms is unlikely.

For all what's worth PP has been quite negative about reforms, saying that "they can't be to make secessionists happy" and the like. And even if it somehow passed the referendum might be a challenge and the campaign would be very ugly. It seems like the secessionists have sparked some sort of renaissance of Spanish nationalism.

I agree that PSC will be very important. But it seems that the most likely scenario if secessionists don't get their majority is a new election some time in early autumn of 2018. In that case the hypothetical coalitions would be:

-Secessionists+Podemos abstention. Very viable if ERC wins the election and picks their candidate. However that would certify Podemos' death in most of Spain so they'll be careful. If Puigdemont somehow manages to lead the secessionists it won't happen

-ERC-PSC-CeC: Somewhat viable. I can see ERC going for it, but PSC would have to at least accept a legal referendum which would cause caos and infighting inside PSOE (again). And of course numbers don't seem favourable anyways. They might get CUP to abstain but really I doubt it.

-PSC-CeC-Cs-PP: Somewhat viable if PSC somehow becomes the largest unionist party. I could see them being just left wing enough and just unionist enough to get Cs, PP's and Podemos' support. But still unlikely. Impossible if Cs is the largest party.
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FrancoAgo
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« Reply #1491 on: December 06, 2017, 08:32:19 pm »

PSC + ERC with Podemos would be enough for a majority...
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« Reply #1492 on: December 07, 2017, 12:18:21 am »

Forget about a coalition between ERC, PSC and CatComú-Podem. PSC leader Miquel Iceta said that his party will never make a separatist president. ERC secretary general Marta Rovira said a coalition pact with PSC is impossible. Rovira is the ERC de-facto candidate, given that Oriol Junqueras is behind the bars.

Also, it's worth noting that one of the main arguments of Catalan separatists is that Spain is impossible to reform. Furthermore, Artur Mas set the procés in motion to keep the possibility of a new 'tripartit' (PSC-ERC-ICV coalition) at bay. Neoliberal Mas was implementing harsh budget cuts and was becoming very unpopular. Keep in mind that.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1493 on: December 07, 2017, 10:26:56 am »

Yikes! The polls are a mess.

Tack, we are following here very carefully the elections because, as we say here, "When Spain sneezes, Portugal catches pneumonia", and the main doubt we have here is what kind of coalitions can emerge from this. Can PSC and ERC make some kind of agreement to force constitutional reforms, or is ERC to much cornered in the independent side to even dialogue with PSC? Looking to the overall picture, it seems to me that PSC can play a major role on what kind of government Catalonia will have.

To be fair, unless Portugal also has some secessionist region I wouldn't read much into this regional election. Tongue Spain's and Portugal's politics are somewhat comparable I guess, particularly in non-nationalist communities. But definitely not Catalan politics.

In theory a PSC-ERC alliance wouldn't be that difficult or unprecedented. Catalonia was ruled by a PSC-ERC-ICV allliance between 2003 and 2010 after all. I'm not sure if they would be able to work together. Remember that a constitutional reform would need the support not just of PSOE and Podemos but also PP and a referendum in all of Spain. So support in exchange for reforms is unlikely.

For all what's worth PP has been quite negative about reforms, saying that "they can't be to make secessionists happy" and the like. And even if it somehow passed the referendum might be a challenge and the campaign would be very ugly. It seems like the secessionists have sparked some sort of renaissance of Spanish nationalism.

I agree that PSC will be very important. But it seems that the most likely scenario if secessionists don't get their majority is a new election some time in early autumn of 2018. In that case the hypothetical coalitions would be:

-Secessionists+Podemos abstention. Very viable if ERC wins the election and picks their candidate. However that would certify Podemos' death in most of Spain so they'll be careful. If Puigdemont somehow manages to lead the secessionists it won't happen

-ERC-PSC-CeC: Somewhat viable. I can see ERC going for it, but PSC would have to at least accept a legal referendum which would cause caos and infighting inside PSOE (again). And of course numbers don't seem favourable anyways. They might get CUP to abstain but really I doubt it.

-PSC-CeC-Cs-PP: Somewhat viable if PSC somehow becomes the largest unionist party. I could see them being just left wing enough and just unionist enough to get Cs, PP's and Podemos' support. But still unlikely. Impossible if Cs is the largest party.

What worry us, here, is the economic impact the Catalonia crisis can have in the Spanish economy, that would ultimately affect deeply Portugal.

Nonetheless, very interesting coalition scenarios. We'll see how this unfolds.
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« Reply #1494 on: December 08, 2017, 12:43:57 pm »

Img

The person responsible for how the parties are ordered around this graphic by decreasing voting intention instead of, you know, the relevant stuff, should be fired, then shot.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1495 on: December 14, 2017, 06:08:34 pm »
« Edited: December 14, 2017, 06:11:49 pm by Mike88 »

Metroscopia poll for El País:

Img


Polling still shows a close race between ERC and C's, while Puigdemont's JxCat seems to be falling. PP is at record low levels. I'm skeptical about turnout, 80% on a week day seems very high, IMO.

Also, no exit polls on election day.
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tack50
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« Reply #1496 on: December 14, 2017, 08:24:08 pm »

Well, considering that today was the last day to publish polls we actually got a ton of polls that will appear tomorrow in newspapers (though they seem to have been leaked). Here is the final poll done by every polling company:

20 Minutos

ERC 33-35
CS 32-34
JXCAT 24-26
PSC 20-21
CEC 7-8
CUP 7-8
PP 6-7

http://electomania.es/encuesta-de-20minutos-es-erc-y-ciudadanos-lucharan-por-la-victoria/

NC Report for La Razón

ERC 34 escaños / 22.4%
CS 33 / 21.8%
JxC 25 / 16.1%
PSC 21 / 15.9%
CEC 9 / 7.6%
PP 8 / 7.5%
CUP 7 / 5.8%


http://electomania.es/nc-report-para-la-razon-todos-lejos-de-la-mayoria/

GAD3 for ABC

Cs: 23.2%  (31-32 escaños)
ERC: 20.3% (29-31)

JxCat; 19.5% (29-30)
PSC: 16.3% (22-23)
CeC: 7.5% (8 )
PP: 6.2% (7-8)
CUP: 5.6% (6)

http://electomania.es/abc-arrimadas-ganaria-en-votos-y-escanos/

Sigma Dos for El Mundo

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Gesop for El Periódico de Catalunya

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Top Position

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Img


Podemos internal (from yesterday)

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Elnacional.cat (from 2 days ago) (tracker)

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tack50
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« Reply #1497 on: December 14, 2017, 08:39:21 pm »
« Edited: December 14, 2017, 08:45:48 pm by tack50 »

My analysis would be that in terms of who will come first it's probably too close to call, with Cs probably being favoured in the popular vote but ERC probably being favoured in terms of seats.

As for the rest, JxCat will take the third place, the question being how close can it get to Cs and ERC. PSC will regain votes and around 21 seats. And finally, there's a 3 way tie for last, with Podemos being slightly better off than the other 2. CUP will lose a little but PP will actually lose half their voters. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost all their non Barcelona seats (though I think they will at least hold 1 in Tarragona)

In terms of blocks, secessionists will almost certainly win both in votes and in seats, though as for whether they will lose their majority it's a tossup.

Finally, apparently there's no exit poll because the last one, for the 2016 general election was ridiculously inaccurate. Polling errors in standard polls are more or less acceptable (within certain margins), but missing in an exit poll, particularly by such a huge and crucial margin was really bad. So IMO good riddance. It's not like we need them, Spain seems to be pretty fast at counting votes. We should get like 95% counted by midnight. Here's a comparison of the exit poll compared to the actual election if anyone cares:

Exit poll

Img


Img


Reality:

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They only really got right CC, PNV and PSOE. Everyone else was off in some way or another.
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« Reply #1498 on: December 15, 2017, 07:16:46 am »

If the pro-Independence forces could not win a majority then which side would the Podemos bloc back?  I cannot imagine Podemos going with a bloc that includes PP.   I assume they are more aligned with the  pro-Independence bloc.  If they do join up with the pro-Independence bloc will they make not going ahead with Independence a condition of their support? 
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tack50
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« Reply #1499 on: December 15, 2017, 07:53:07 am »

If the pro-Independence forces could not win a majority then which side would the Podemos bloc back?  I cannot imagine Podemos going with a bloc that includes PP.   I assume they are more aligned with the  pro-Independence bloc.  If they do join up with the pro-Independence bloc will they make not going ahead with Independence a condition of their support?  

I don't know. Podemos wants an ERC-PSC-Podemos left wing ambiguous government but neither ERC nor PSC want that. I guess they could abstain, and just allow the side with the most seats (almost certainly nationalists) to govern, but that would be risky for their prospects outside nationalist communities. It might hurt the party a lot outside Catalonia/Basque Country/Navarra and maybe 2 or 3 others.
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