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  Spanish elections and politics
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 288381 times)
tack50
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« Reply #1500 on: December 15, 2017, 07:56:31 am »

Also, we got a few more polls from other companies:

MyWord for Cadena SER

Image Link

Invymark for La Sexta

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Elnacional.cat (tracker)

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As someone said, seems like Puigdemont's rise has stopped and CUP and PP are in a dead heat, with Podemos not too much above them.
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tack50
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« Reply #1501 on: December 15, 2017, 08:50:13 pm »

The last polls from the polling companies that hadn't released their final poll yet:

Sociométrica for El Español

Image Link

GAD3 for ABC

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ERC internal

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The final polling average ends up being this:

Image Link
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tack50
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« Reply #1502 on: December 16, 2017, 12:04:18 pm »

Mysterious Andorran fruit shops strike again!

Mysterious Andorran fruit shop poll (GESOP for El Periòdic de Andorra)

🍋 Junquera 22,1€ (34-35u)
🍊 21,4€ (27-28u)
🥑 AguaCATS 17,5€ (25-26)
🍓 iFresas 17,1€ (23-24)
🍆 BroColau 8,5€ (9-10)
💧 Lanjalbiol 5,4€ (6-7)
🍌 cupNarias 6,1€ (7-8)

http://sondeos.elperiodic.ad/primer-sondeo-elecciones-catalanas-21d.html

They are facing some tough competition from Scottish fruit stands though

Mysterious Scottish fruit shop poll (Feedback for The National) (probably the same tracker as before)

🍊 24,18€ (33u)
🍋 Junquera 20,89€ (30u)
🥑 AguaCATS 19,49€ (28-30u)
🍓 iFresas 13,67€ (17-19u)
🍆 BroColau 7,08€ (8-9u)
🍌 cupNarias 8,28€ (10u)
💧 Lanjalbiol 5,64€ (6u)

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15777408.Stunning_Catalan_poll_predicts_majority_for_pro_independence_parties/
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tack50
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« Reply #1503 on: December 19, 2017, 04:49:13 am »
« Edited: December 19, 2017, 04:52:44 am by tack50 »

Found a website which tells you who you should vote for in the next Catalan election.

www.elteuvot.org

Anyways my results were:

PSC: 73%
Cs: 71%
CUP: 69%!
Podemos: 68%
ERC: 63%
PP: 57%
JxCat: 51%
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tack50
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« Reply #1504 on: December 19, 2017, 08:10:02 am »
« Edited: December 19, 2017, 08:11:46 am by tack50 »

Also, El País did some probabilistic model about the Catalan election:

Image Link

Image Link

Image Link

Image Link

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/12/18/ratio/1513610647_109254.html

Basically, it seems like secessionists getting a majority is slighly more likely than not, but basically a coin flip, a left wing majority is quite unlikely and a constitutionalist majority is a pipedream.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1505 on: December 19, 2017, 08:47:17 am »

Found a website which tells you who you should vote for in the next Catalan election.

www.elteuvot.org

This test is bull...t

 My results:

CatComu-Podem 89%
CUP 84%
ERC 83%
PSC 79%
Cs 61%
JxCat 60%
PP 37%

In neither case I'd vote for the CUP or ERC. I could vote for CatComu-Podem or the PSC.
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FrancoAgo
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« Reply #1506 on: December 19, 2017, 12:23:47 pm »

My results
Podem 81%
ERC 80%
CUP 78%
PSC 77%
JxC 63%
C's 54%
PP 46%

I could vote for one of first 3, idk enough for choice one
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RodPresident
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« Reply #1507 on: December 19, 2017, 06:31:57 pm »

CeC: 77%
ERC: 75%
CUP: 74%
PSC: 69%
JxC: 61%
C's: 59%
PP: 40%
Probably, I'd vote for CeC-P, but in order to prevent any embarrasments to Podemos, I'd vote to CUP to ensure an majority against C's and P and to push ERC-JxC coalition to left.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1508 on: December 20, 2017, 08:11:57 pm »

When does polls close? Any exit polls?  Any links to results ?
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Mike88
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« Reply #1509 on: December 20, 2017, 08:46:25 pm »

When does polls close? Any exit polls?  Any links to results ?

No exit polls apparently. Polls close at 8pm (7pm London time). Official results site.
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tack50
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« Reply #1510 on: December 21, 2017, 04:26:54 am »

When does polls close? Any exit polls?  Any links to results ?

Polls close at 8pm Spanish time. (7pm London time, 2pm New York time)

There will be no formal exit polls, but I just saw on TV that there might be some unofficial ones in Twitter or newspapers. Someone from La Vanguardia said they would have some estimation.

As for links to results, Mike88 already posted them

For all what's worth here are the final illegal polls:

Image Link

The one with a graph was done by Netquest for L'independant (apparently a regional French newspaper based in Perpignan). The other 2 were for Andorra and Scotland.
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« Reply #1511 on: December 21, 2017, 04:39:16 am »

There is only one thing to look at: will the independists reach the majority of 68 seats? The polls have been consistently tights, with them getting between 65 and 70 seats, so there is a lot of suspense. I am looking forward to the result!
I wonder how the date of the vote  (on a working day instead of Sunday) will influence the result.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1512 on: December 21, 2017, 05:07:38 am »
« Edited: December 21, 2017, 06:44:13 am by coloniac »

There is only one thing to look at: will the independists reach the majority of 68 seats? The polls have been consistently tights, with them getting between 65 and 70 seats, so there is a lot of suspense. I am looking forward to the result!
I wonder how the date of the vote  (on a working day instead of Sunday) will influence the result.


If they lose the popular vote but win a majority of seats then, as in 2015, they can only ask for a referendum. And since they have already gone through that "process", I think they'd have to seriously rethink their strategy.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1513 on: December 21, 2017, 06:41:56 am »

I think that is likely that pro-independence parties retain majority by the narrowest of margins. In case ERC, JxCat and the CUP get around 45% of the vote, the chances of parliamentary majority are high thanks to malapportionment. Only a massive mobilization in Barcelona and Tarragona metropolitan areas could prevent this. The chances of a 'unionist' or 'constitutionalist' majority -without CatComú-Podem- are virtually non-existent. It's highly unlikely that Cs candidate Inés Arrimadas becomes in the next Catalan premier, because CatComú-Podem will never vote her investiture. However, consider the potentially huge impact in Spanish politics of a Cs victory alongside with the collapse of PP vote in Catalonia. In case of a pro-independence majority, things won't be easy. Consider the increasingly rivalry between ERC and the 'legitimate president' Puigdemont, as well the uncompromising CUP stance on following the unilateral path to independence.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1514 on: December 21, 2017, 07:04:44 am »

I'm going to say Secessionists lose a majority by a timy amoumt of seats. This puts Podemos with the awkward choice of either Kingmaking one of two bad options, or a government is formed that reaches across the Secessionist/Unionist line and tries to pretend to ignore the independence question...
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jaichind
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« Reply #1515 on: December 21, 2017, 07:10:30 am »

My guess is  secessionists wins majority by a tiny margin which just means continuation of the crisis without end.   I think it will be something like:

CUP:      8
ERC:    33
JxC:     28
CeC:      8
PSC:    19
PP:        6
C's:     33
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tack50
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« Reply #1516 on: December 21, 2017, 07:44:49 am »
« Edited: December 21, 2017, 07:50:06 am by tack50 »

Interesting. It seems like at this time turnout is actually down compared to 2015!

Turnout at 13:00, 2017: 34.62%
Turnout 13:00, 2015: 35.10%

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171221/433795520166/participacion-elecciones-cataluna.html

Then again it might be because most people plan on voting after they end their workday during the afternoon. Remember that 2015 was held on a Sunday while this election is being held on a workday.

Image Link

By province, turnout is basically flat in Barcelona, slightly down in Tarragona, slightly up in Lleida and 3 points down in Girona. Idk why Girona isn't flat like the other 3.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1517 on: December 21, 2017, 09:57:27 am »

Turnout by municipality at 13;00 CET

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Grafico-dato-participacion-municipio_0_720928465.html

Turnout increased slightly in Metropolitan Barcelona, some places in Tarragona and in the south of Lleida province. Lower turnout in places with a strong pro-independence vote.

It's too early, this election is held on working day instead on Sunday (as usual since 1982), etcetera
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Mike88
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« Reply #1518 on: December 21, 2017, 12:02:43 pm »
« Edited: December 21, 2017, 12:26:17 pm by Mike88 »

Turnout at 68.33% at 18:00h. +5.21% compared with 2015.

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Velasco
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« Reply #1519 on: December 21, 2017, 12:22:48 pm »
« Edited: December 21, 2017, 12:31:43 pm by Velasco »

Turnout by province (2015 un brackets)

Barcelona 68.32% (63.21%)
Girona 68.16% (65.08%)
Lleida 66.54% (61.11%)
Tarragona 66.46% (61.78%)

Turnout decreases in the following comarcas: Berguedà, Moianès, Pallars Sobirà and Alta Ribagorça

Cs was the party most favoured by the turnout increase in the 2015 election

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/aumento-participacion-electoral-beneficio-Cs_0_718828760.html

We'll see how it works this time in the Barcelona Metropolitan region, where Cs and PSC are fighting for the non-nationalist vote.


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Mike88
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« Reply #1520 on: December 21, 2017, 12:33:46 pm »

Turnout by province (2015 un brackets)

Barcelona 68.32% (63.21%)
Girona 68.16% (65.08%)
Lleida 66.54% (61.11%)
Tarragona 66.46% (61.78%)

Turnout decreases in the following comarcas: Berguedà, Moianès, Pallars Sobirà and Alta Ribagorça

Cs was the party most favoured by the turnout increase in the 2015 election

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/aumento-participacion-electoral-beneficio-Cs_0_718828760.html

We'll see how it works this time in the Barcelona Metropolitan region, where Cs and PSC are fighting for the non-nationalist vote.



Right now, only the comarca of Pallars Sobirà has a lower turnout compared with 2015.

With these figures at 18:00h, turnout can easily achieve 80/81% at the end of the day, IMO.
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tack50
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« Reply #1521 on: December 21, 2017, 12:37:39 pm »

Turnout by province (2015 un brackets)

Barcelona 68.32% (63.21%)
Girona 68.16% (65.08%)
Lleida 66.54% (61.11%)
Tarragona 66.46% (61.78%)

Turnout decreses in the following comarcas: Berguedà, Moianès, Pallars Sobirà and Alta Ribagorça

Cs was the party most favoured by the turnout increase in the 2015 election

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/aumento-participacion-electoral-beneficio-Cs_0_718828760.html

We'll see how it works this time in the Barcelona Metropolitan region, where Cs and PSC are fighting for the non-nationalist vote.




Seems like the few that have lower turnout are pro-secessionist

Image Link

Pallars Sobira: 78% secessionist in 2015
Alta Ribagorça: 58%
Bergueda: 78%
Moianes: 77%
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jaichind
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« Reply #1522 on: December 21, 2017, 12:53:04 pm »

The turnout statistics are pretty amazing.  Thanks for posting the links.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1523 on: December 21, 2017, 01:03:37 pm »

Actually it's Pallars Sobirà the only comarca with turnout decrease, as Mike88 said (La Vanguardia said the other three decreased too).

As for the 'unionist' comarcas (I hate that terminology, but anyway)

Barcelonès 68.12% (61.77%)
Baix Llobregat 68.27% (62.15%)
Vallès Occidental 68.86% (63.79%)
Tarragonès 67.44% (61.76%)
Baix Penedès 64.19% (60.16%)
Aran 55.9% (51.09%)

It seems likely that turnout will reach something like 80%.

Keep in mind that pro-independence vote was hyper-movilized in 2015. They will turnout in great numbers this time again. It's only that here's no much room for an increase in separatist strongholds.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1524 on: December 21, 2017, 01:08:11 pm »

Graphic showing the increase/decrease of turnout by comarca, compared with % of vote for the pro-independence parties in 2015:

Image Link
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