Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 22, 2019, 02:44:07 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Blind Jaunting)
  Spanish elections and politics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 58 59 60 61 62 [63] 64 65 66 67 68 ... 93 Print
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 274103 times)
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1550 on: December 21, 2017, 04:01:10 pm »

The fall of PP to below the seat thresholds in different regions indirectly helps the bigger parties of which 2 of the 3 are  secessionists.  If the entire  Catalonia was one large PR region that would work to help the secessionists less.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,955
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1551 on: December 21, 2017, 04:10:03 pm »

52% in

Cs: 25.29% (35)
JxCat: 22.19% (34)
ERC: 21.84% (32)
PSC: 13.83% (18)
CUP: 4.35% (4)
PP: 4.17% (4)

From the few changes seems like there's a PP-JxCat swing in Tarragona and another one between Cs and ERC somewhere else.
Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,184
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1552 on: December 21, 2017, 04:15:05 pm »

What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1553 on: December 21, 2017, 04:21:12 pm »

What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.

It seems that is related to the d'hondt method rewarding the larger parties and despite its large vote share C is poor 3rd place in 2 of the 4 regions.
Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,184
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1554 on: December 21, 2017, 04:25:47 pm »

What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.

It seems that is related to the d'hondt method rewarding the larger parties and despite its large vote share C is poor 3rd place in 2 of the 4 regions.
I know. Here in Portugal we also had weird results because of the d'hondt method, but the problem is that after all the fuss, nothing changed basically. If JxCat holds it's second place, it will be interesting to see the reaction of ERC.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,955
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1555 on: December 21, 2017, 04:32:37 pm »

What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.

It seems that is related to the d'hondt method rewarding the larger parties and despite its large vote share C is poor 3rd place in 2 of the 4 regions.

Technically speaking it's not because of D'Hondt, but because of malapportionment. Barcelona has less seats than it would be fairly entitled to. Lleida's votes are worth twice as much as Barcelona's. In theory well apportioned seats (or better yet, only one at-large constituency) would yield proportional results even with D'Hondt

Though to be fair Catalonia is far from the worst offender in this regard. If you want to look at bad regional elections in Spain, check out the Canary Islands (where the 3rd voted party gets the most seats and 0.6% gives you 3 seats but 5.9% gives you none) or Castille-La Mancha (where 8.5% of the vote gives you 0 seats)
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,208
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1556 on: December 21, 2017, 04:38:42 pm »

What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.

It seems that is related to the d'hondt method rewarding the larger parties and despite its large vote share C is poor 3rd place in 2 of the 4 regions.
I know. Here in Portugal we also had weird results because of the d'hondt method, but the problem is that after all the fuss, nothing changed basically. If JxCat holds it's second place, it will be interesting to see the reaction of ERC.

It's the malapportinonment, not the D'Hondt system.

Lleida, Girona and Tarragona are overrepresented. On the other hand, Barcelona has 73% of the population and elects 63% of the seats. With electoral districts ranging between 15 and 85 seats, the D'Hondt system is very proportional. It rewards major parties when electoral districts elect a little number of seats, as it happens in the Spanish general elections with a many provinces electing less than 6 seats.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1557 on: December 21, 2017, 04:42:30 pm »

Secessionists down to 69 seats now ..
Logged
coloniac
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,213
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1558 on: December 21, 2017, 04:47:27 pm »

PSC can still take a seat off of JxC in Barcelona.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,830


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1559 on: December 21, 2017, 04:55:25 pm »

Secessionists down to 69 seats now ..

I'm still seeing 70 - 34 JUNT, 32 - ERC, 4 -CUP. Is it a end result projection?
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,955
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1560 on: December 21, 2017, 05:03:03 pm »

^
No, it seems that in the mean time JxCat took back a seat from PSC (who is now at 17)

Also, an interesting side effect of this elections is that PP and CUP will have to share a joint parliamentary group. Neither has enough seats for an individual parliamentary group (they'd need 5), so they'll both go to the mixed group.

That basically means that they'll have to share their talking time, their seats in commitees, etc.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1561 on: December 21, 2017, 05:03:50 pm »

I think D'Hondt plays a large role due to the larger party bonus effect.  If we view  Catalonia as one large district the seat distribution would be

            Current      If one large PR region
C's:          36                      35
JxC:         34                      30
ERC:        32                      30
PSC:        17                      19
CeC:         8                       10
CUP:         4                         6
PP:           4                         5

JxC  ERC over performance is more at the expense of smaller parties
Logged
coloniac
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,213
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1562 on: December 21, 2017, 05:09:08 pm »
« Edited: December 21, 2017, 05:11:31 pm by coloniac »

Caudillo Albiol almost in tears. Some Clown DJ at the ANC headquarters. This is gunna be a fun night.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1563 on: December 21, 2017, 05:09:22 pm »

^
No, it seems that in the mean time JxCat took back a seat from PSC (who is now at 17)

Also, an interesting side effect of this elections is that PP and CUP will have to share a joint parliamentary group. Neither has enough seats for an individual parliamentary group (they'd need 5), so they'll both go to the mixed group.

That basically means that they'll have to share their talking time, their seats in commitees, etc.

They can do this despite the fact that their platforms are polar opposites of each other ?
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,955
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1564 on: December 21, 2017, 05:11:20 pm »

^
No, it seems that in the mean time JxCat took back a seat from PSC (who is now at 17)

Also, an interesting side effect of this elections is that PP and CUP will have to share a joint parliamentary group. Neither has enough seats for an individual parliamentary group (they'd need 5), so they'll both go to the mixed group.

That basically means that they'll have to share their talking time, their seats in commitees, etc.

They can do this despite the fact that their platforms are polar opposites of each other ?

It's not a matter of whether they can or not. It's simply what the rules of the Catalan parliament say. For reference in the national congress you have both Bildu (Basque secessionists) as well as UPN (anti Basque Navarra party, contests elections with PP) in the mixed group, who are also polar opposites.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,955
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1565 on: December 21, 2017, 05:11:54 pm »
« Edited: December 21, 2017, 05:17:04 pm by tack50 »

Also here's a map by municipality

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/elecciones/20171221/433800521201/mapa-resultados-elecciones-catalanas-21d.html

JxCat wins most of the interior, Cs wins the coastal towns and the Barcelona and Tarragona metro areas. ERC wins mostly the south. PSC wins 2 municipalities in Aran with really tiny populations (15 and 10 voters for PSC; 60 and 43 voters respectively)

Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1566 on: December 21, 2017, 05:22:07 pm »

Pretty amazing that after all that the secessionists only lost 2 seats from 2015.  I guess it is back to stalemate.  Can Puigdemont run for and be appointed  President remotely ?
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,955
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1567 on: December 21, 2017, 05:38:33 pm »

Pretty amazing that after all that the secessionists only lost 2 seats from 2015.  I guess it is back to stalemate.  Can Puigdemont run for and be appointed  President remotely ?

No idea, but I don't think so. Then again during the campaign he did promise that if he was reelected he would return to Catalonia and become president again.

Come to think about it, that's actually a good plot for a movie. Puigdemont tries to sneak into the Catalan parliament and not be noticed by the Spanish police. If Puigdemont somehow didn't get arrested on his way to Spain (I guess he could cross the border by car inside the trunk or something, as though he was being smuggled) and get into parliament it would be an incredibly powerful move of defiance.

And the images of the Guardia Civil entering a parliament would probably be extemely reminiscent of the 1981 coup (performed by Guardia Civil Coronel Antonio Tejero), which would add even more fuel to the fire.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1568 on: December 21, 2017, 05:41:31 pm »

Pretty amazing that after all that the secessionists only lost 2 seats from 2015.  I guess it is back to stalemate.  Can Puigdemont run for and be appointed  President remotely ?

No idea, but I don't think so. Then again during the campaign he did promise that if he was reelected he would return to Catalonia and become president again.

Come to think about it, that's actually a good plot for a movie. Puigdemont tries to sneak into the Catalan parliament and not be noticed by the Spanish police. If Puigdemont somehow didn't get arrested on his way to Spain (I guess he could cross the border by car inside the trunk or something, as though he was being smuggled) and get into parliament it would be an incredibly powerful move of defiance.

And the images of the Guardia Civil entering a parliament would probably be extemely reminiscent of the 1981 coup (performed by Guardia Civil Coronel Antonio Tejero), which would add even more fuel to the fire.

This used to happen in India all the time.  The idea is that a MP or MLA is immune from prosecution.  So criminals/bandits would run for MLA and MP seats and many times would win.  Then on the day they will be sworn in the police know they will need to show up at the Legislative assembly and wait outside to arrest them.  The MP or MLA elect would need to sneak past the police, get sworn in, and then the police can no longer arrest them. 
Logged
petr sokol
Newbie
*
Posts: 16
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1569 on: December 21, 2017, 05:42:30 pm »

Why is ERC party of the south and JxCat of the north?

Also here's a map by municipality



JxCat wins most of the interior, Cs wins the coastal towns and the Barcelona and Tarragona metro areas. ERC wins mostly the south. PSC wins 2 municipalities in Aran with really tiny populations (15 and 10 voters for PSC; 60 and 43 voters respectively)


Logged
coloniac
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,213
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1570 on: December 21, 2017, 05:47:36 pm »

PP have lost a seat to Cs.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,955
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1571 on: December 21, 2017, 05:48:43 pm »

Why is ERC party of the south and JxCat of the north?

Also here's a map by municipality



JxCat wins most of the interior, Cs wins the coastal towns and the Barcelona and Tarragona metro areas. ERC wins mostly the south. PSC wins 2 municipalities in Aran with really tiny populations (15 and 10 voters for PSC; 60 and 43 voters respectively)



No idea. My guess is that Tarragona province is more left wing than Lleida/Girona, but also that the southern part is secessionist. But looking at other results (like the 2016 general election) it seems like that area, while it voted for ERC, it didn't do so overwhelmingly for the most part.

Another idea is that Puigdemont is from Girona province, so he did get a noticable "home state" effect there. But that doesn't explain why almost all of rural inland Catalonia voted for him.
Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,184
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1572 on: December 21, 2017, 05:48:59 pm »

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  Sad

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,041
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1573 on: December 21, 2017, 05:51:49 pm »

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  Sad

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.
Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,184
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1574 on: December 21, 2017, 05:55:37 pm »

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  Sad

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.
From what i've heard, CeC, or Podemos, are neither pro or anti independence. They also got punished for their lack of position.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 58 59 60 61 62 [63] 64 65 66 67 68 ... 93 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC