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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 289883 times)
Mike88
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« Reply #1575 on: December 21, 2017, 06:08:03 pm »

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  Sad

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Technically yes, Catalonia uses the same law Spain uses for general elections except for the seat distribution (which comes from a decree from Josep Tarradellas intended for the first regional elections in 1980).

However it's of little relevance to be honest. There are some other communities with systems that are extremely similar. Castille-Leon for example does technically have its own election law, but it's basically the same as if it didn't have it as it has the same characteristics as the general election/Catalonia law (3% theshold, province sized constituencies)

Iirc they'd need 2/3 for a new one to be drafted but no one has been able to do get the required majority.


Of course. And a change in the law, like Arrimadas asked in her speech, is impossible because ERC and JxCat will not change a system that clearly benefits them.
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∀lex
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« Reply #1576 on: December 21, 2017, 11:33:51 pm »

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Mangez des pommes !
Antonio V
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« Reply #1577 on: December 22, 2017, 04:45:06 am »

Ugh, great, just great.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1578 on: December 22, 2017, 05:23:10 am »

Haha, this changes everything! /s
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1579 on: December 22, 2017, 05:36:14 am »

My Elteuvot result:

CeC-Podemos: 63%
CUP: 63%
ERC: 62%
JxCat: 55%
PSC: 55%
Cs: 51%
PP: 46%

Would probably have voted for CeC-Podemos.
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swl
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« Reply #1580 on: December 22, 2017, 05:51:39 am »

8 of the newly elected MPs are in jail or will be jailed if they come back to Spain (all independentists). I am not sure if they can plan any role in the Parliament without being physically present.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1581 on: December 22, 2017, 07:18:13 am »

Puigdemont: “I’m willing to meet with Rajoy in Brussels or somewhere else in the European Union other than Spain, because we have to consider the new political stage that starts in Catalonia, Spain and Europe."
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swl
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« Reply #1582 on: December 22, 2017, 07:51:27 am »

Results by city:
http://www.elmundo.es/grafico/cataluna/2017/12/21/5a3bbcd7468aeb2b4a8b45af.html

You can select "bloques" or "partidos" to see which bloc (independentist vs constitutionalist) or which party arrived first in each city

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Mike88
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« Reply #1583 on: December 22, 2017, 12:41:11 pm »

Reactions after the results:

Rajoy refuses to call early general elections and is willing to talk with the future Catalan government within the law. At the same time, Mr Rajoy's chief of staff, Jorge Moragas, resigned because of the results in Catalonia.

Rajoy also refused the proposed talks with Puigdemont, and will talk with the leader of the most voted party, Inés Arrimadas.

From Portugal, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Augusto Santos Silva, calls for a responsible and democratic dialogue that helps to form a stable government in Catalonia, that preserves Spain's sovereignty and that respects the rights and freedoms of the citizens.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1584 on: December 22, 2017, 01:04:33 pm »

Reactions after the results:

At the same time, Mr Rajoy's chief of staff, Jorge Moragas, resigned because of the results in Catalonia.

Apparently Jorge Moragas agreed with Rajoy to resign his post after the Catalan elections, in order to become the next Ambassador to the United Nations. According to the news Moragas decoupled his decision (prior to elections) to the result.

Puigdemont told something interesting to his JxCat colleagues. The deposed president spoke in somewhat rude language, but roughly translated his sentence means "Spain has a terrible mess"

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171222/puigdemont-espana-tiene-pollo-cojones-6512922
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Mike88
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« Reply #1585 on: December 22, 2017, 01:29:25 pm »

Reactions after the results:

At the same time, Mr Rajoy's chief of staff, Jorge Moragas, resigned because of the results in Catalonia.

Apparently Jorge Moragas agreed with Rajoy to resign his post after the Catalan elections, in order to become the next Ambassador to the United Nations. According to the news Moragas decoupled his decision (prior to elections) to the result.

Puigdemont told something interesting to his JxCat colleagues. The deposed president spoke in somewhat rude language, but roughly translated his sentence means "Spain has a terrible mess"

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171222/puigdemont-espana-tiene-pollo-cojones-6512922
Ahh. Wasn't aware that he was going to the UN. I don't get why Puigdemont said that. Yes, Spain may be a mess, but has he looked himself in the mirror? God!
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jaichind
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« Reply #1586 on: December 22, 2017, 10:01:08 pm »

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/spanish-court-extradition-121-taiwanese-china-51815552

Spanish court allows extradition of 121 Taiwanese to China

Funny news since it relates to my home Chinese Province of Taiwan.  Spainish courts decided to extradite 121 ROC nationals to the PRC regime.  The defendants claimed that "Taiwan is not a part of China" but the Spanish courts ruled  :

"The international community, except for those countries with which (Taiwan) has diplomatic relations, consider Taiwan to be part of China and take the view that its independence cannot be achieved unilaterally"

Pretty funny in light of the  Catalonia crisis. 

I guess in the Taiwan Province context I am the equivalent of Cs (and most even more extreme then that as I would support PRC military action to stop Taiwan Independence.)
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1587 on: December 22, 2017, 11:11:28 pm »
« Edited: December 22, 2017, 11:13:59 pm by Tintrlvr »

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  Sad

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.
From what i've heard, CeC, or Podemos, are neither pro or anti independence. They also got punished for their lack of position.

That is my understanding as well. They are in favor of a referendum and opposed to direct rule, but also anti-independence. They have had leaders who are pro-independence, however, but the national party has prevented the local party from endorsing independence. It *might* be possible for the independence parties to get CeC on their side to hold yet another referendum, but I can't see why the central Spanish government would react differently to a new referendum anyway, which makes the whole idea a bit pointless. (Although strategically I think it would be the right approach for the Spanish government to support another referendum; this result makes it reasonably clear that a referendum with 80+% turnout would have a result somewhere between Quebec 1995 and Scotland 2014, and a failed referendum would take all of the wind out of the independence parties' sails.)
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1588 on: December 23, 2017, 05:46:39 am »
« Edited: December 23, 2017, 06:02:11 am by coloniac »

Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1
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RodPresident
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« Reply #1589 on: December 23, 2017, 02:41:57 pm »

It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?
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RodPresident
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« Reply #1590 on: December 23, 2017, 02:54:55 pm »

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  Sad

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.
From what i've heard, CeC, or Podemos, are neither pro or anti independence. They also got punished for their lack of position.

That is my understanding as well. They are in favor of a referendum and opposed to direct rule, but also anti-independence. They have had leaders who are pro-independence, however, but the national party has prevented the local party from endorsing independence. It *might* be possible for the independence parties to get CeC on their side to hold yet another referendum, but I can't see why the central Spanish government would react differently to a new referendum anyway, which makes the whole idea a bit pointless. (Although strategically I think it would be the right approach for the Spanish government to support another referendum; this result makes it reasonably clear that a referendum with 80+% turnout would have a result somewhere between Quebec 1995 and Scotland 2014, and a failed referendum would take all of the wind out of the independence parties' sails.)
But for PP-C's the far this thing goes, better to them to retain hegemony in national politics. This will help them against national PSOE who'll have to appease their base in poorer autonomies (Extremadura, Castilla La Mancha, Andalusia) and weaken Podemos who is being caught in this fight.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1591 on: December 23, 2017, 03:05:32 pm »
« Edited: December 23, 2017, 03:21:26 pm by coloniac »

It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

I think La Barceloneta swinging to ERC shows that the votes that some the CeC and Colau lost in this election went towards independence after the way Rajoy reacted. Barceloneta is still considered a more "Catalanist" district though. That would also explain how the actual number of votes for pro-independence parties increased, that and an increased turnout in rural areas for JxC for some reason.

I think a Spanish person will answer your second question better but I would hypothesise Barceloneta and Barcelona in general voted for Colau for reasons much more local than the separatist issue (tourism, social housing, housing speculation prices), and that being indepe or not was pretty irrelevant.
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swl
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« Reply #1592 on: December 23, 2017, 03:12:24 pm »

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Why? From what I see it has a strong identity compatible with independetism. Also interesting to see that the Raval is the only district in the centre that put Cs in first position. Possible interpretation is that immigrants do not support independence.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1593 on: December 23, 2017, 04:45:37 pm »

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  Sad

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.
From what i've heard, CeC, or Podemos, are neither pro or anti independence. They also got punished for their lack of position.

That is my understanding as well. They are in favor of a referendum and opposed to direct rule, but also anti-independence. They have had leaders who are pro-independence, however, but the national party has prevented the local party from endorsing independence. It *might* be possible for the independence parties to get CeC on their side to hold yet another referendum, but I can't see why the central Spanish government would react differently to a new referendum anyway, which makes the whole idea a bit pointless. (Although strategically I think it would be the right approach for the Spanish government to support another referendum; this result makes it reasonably clear that a referendum with 80+% turnout would have a result somewhere between Quebec 1995 and Scotland 2014, and a failed referendum would take all of the wind out of the independence parties' sails.)
But for PP-C's the far this thing goes, better to them to retain hegemony in national politics. This will help them against national PSOE who'll have to appease their base in poorer autonomies (Extremadura, Castilla La Mancha, Andalusia) and weaken Podemos who is being caught in this fight.

While this is true, I think PP and Cs are more genuinely centralist than strategically so.
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tack50
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« Reply #1594 on: December 23, 2017, 06:02:55 pm »

It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

For the most part no, local politics aren't completely affected by constitutionalists vs secessionist fights, they seem to be mostly isolated from that. There are plenty of mixed deals, like for example Sant Cugat (PDECat-PSC) or Torredembarra (ERC-Podemos-PSC).

However there are many times when there are problems because of that issue. For example last month Colau expelled the PSC government councillors (with Podemos ruling alone now) because of PSC's support of article 155

I do think Colau will be reelected but it's true that she might have a hard time. But I can't see an alternative really. A right wing government led by PDECat seems even more unlikely (I don't think Puigdemont's success will trickle down), and I can't see anyone overtaking Colau either.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1595 on: December 24, 2017, 02:20:02 pm »
« Edited: December 24, 2017, 02:21:49 pm by Velasco »


It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

For the most part no, local politics aren't completely affected by constitutionalists vs secessionist fights, they seem to be mostly isolated from that. There are plenty of mixed deals, like for example Sant Cugat (PDECat-PSC) or Torredembarra (ERC-Podemos-PSC).

However there are many times when there are problems because of that issue. For example last month Colau expelled the PSC government councillors (with Podemos ruling alone now) because of PSC's support of article 155

I do think Colau will be reelected but it's true that she might have a hard time. But I can't see an alternative really. A right wing government led by PDECat seems even more unlikely (I don't think Puigdemont's success will trickle down), and I can't see anyone overtaking Colau either.

La Barceloneta is a popular neighbourhood with 'catalanist' leanings, not so different in that regard from neighbourhoods like Poble Nou and El Poble Sec. The best places for ERC in Barcelona fit this typology -they are mostly former villages annexed to Barcelona: Gràcia, Sants or Camp de l'Arpa. JxCat won in middle and upper-middle class neighbourhoods like Eixample or Sarrià. Cs performed astonishingly well in upper-class Pedralbes (above 50% in some precincts), as well in the poor Nou Barris and other impoverished peripheral neighbourhoods.

Local elections are different from general and regional elections and Catalans have a marked tendency to vote different parties depending on the election. Anyway I think that the bad result of CatComú-Podem evidently weakens Ada Colau.

Barcelona is not governed by Podemos and Ada Colau is not a Podemos member. The ruling force is Barcelona en Comú, the Ada Colau party. The BComú list incorporated people from ICV and Podem. Catalunya en Comú is the regional expansion of Colau's party; it's also the merger of BComú, ICV and EUiA (IU). The opposition of the former Podem leadership prevented the merger of that party into CatComú, so it was arranged a coalition between CatComú and Podem in the last minute.
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tack50
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« Reply #1596 on: December 26, 2017, 11:00:40 am »

Apparently #Tabarnia is now trending topic in Spain. It refers to a hypothetical secession of the unionist areas of Catalonia, leaving a "Republic of Catalonia" with only the rural areas.



Commenting it just because it's funny, but the movement exists since 2013 and hasn't gone anywhere and I don't expect it to.

Decided to check the requirements and they'd need the support of the unelected provincial governments of Tarragona and Barcelona as well as 2/3 of all municipalities (many tiny seccessionist villages of 500 people) representing 50%+1 of all inhabitants in both provinces.

Either that or redrawing the map of provinces, something that was last done in 1927!
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FrancoAgo
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« Reply #1597 on: December 26, 2017, 12:16:39 pm »

Tabarnia is too large comparating to this cart http://www.elmundo.es/grafico/cataluna/2017/12/21/5a3bbcd7468aeb2b4a8b45af.html
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tack50
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« Reply #1598 on: December 26, 2017, 12:57:05 pm »

I think they are using the Comarcas instead. This map is from the 2015 election but I guess it works for this one as well:

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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1599 on: December 27, 2017, 03:01:15 pm »

In any case I'm sure opinion would shift in Tabarnia after the independence of rump!Catalonia. Being geographically isolated from the rest of Spain would be quite economically disastrous for Barcelona and especially Tarragona (which is not the international powerhouse Barcelona is), especially if rump!Catalonia actually was not part of the EU as they postulate and thus would have border controls for any land travel between Tabarnia and the rest of Spain.
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