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tack50
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« Reply #1750 on: May 13, 2018, 03:03:44 pm »

El País strikes back! Metroscopia-El País poll



https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/05/13/actualidad/1526222522_428410.html

Granted, they are a thrash tier pollster and it's an outlier, but if it's anywhere near correct then I guess RIP Old 2 party system (PP-PSOE): 1982-2020.
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tack50
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« Reply #1751 on: May 17, 2018, 12:51:32 pm »
« Edited: May 17, 2018, 12:54:41 pm by tack50 »

There's kind of a scandal ongoing in Podemos right now. Apparently Pablo Iglesias and his girlfriend Irene Montero (who is also the speaker of the parliamentary group in Congress) and who are expecting babies, have bought a huge and expensive house (worth 660 000€) in the suburbs of Madrid and lots of people are unhappy.

Many are critizising them, saying that they've basically betrayed everything they've stood for until now, or reposting old tweets from Pablo Iglesias himself, with the most common one being "Would you trust someone with a 600 000€ home with the economic policies of this country?" (criticising when then economics minister Luis de Guindos also bought a 600k € home). I've also seen a couple comparisons drawn to former PM Felipe González, who apparently bought a yacht after he left office. Others have also mentioned the expensive wedding of IU leader Alberto Garzón, which apparently cost 100 000€. In other words, a lot.

Keep in mind that Podemos has usually spoken a lot against money in politics, to the point where their MPs limit themselves to 3 times the minimum salary (which would be around 2500€ a month). So now buying a huge and expensive home in a rich neiughbourhood comes off as quite hypocritical from Iglesias.
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« Reply #1752 on: May 17, 2018, 01:24:03 pm »
« Edited: May 17, 2018, 02:06:50 pm by RodPresident »

There's kind of a scandal ongoing in Podemos right now. Apparently Pablo Iglesias and his girlfriend Irene Montero (who is also the speaker of the parliamentary group in Congress) and who are expecting babies, have bought a huge and expensive house (worth 660 000€) in the suburbs of Madrid and lots of people are unhappy.

Many are critizising them, saying that they've basically betrayed everything they've stood for until now, or reposting old tweets from Pablo Iglesias himself, with the most common one being "Would you trust someone with a 600 000€ home with the economic policies of this country?" (criticising when then economics minister Luis de Guindos also bought a 600k € home). I've also seen a couple comparisons drawn to former PM Felipe González, who apparently bought a yacht after he left office. Others have also mentioned the expensive wedding of IU leader Alberto Garzón, which apparently cost 100 000€. In other words, a lot.

Keep in mind that Podemos has usually spoken a lot against money in politics, to the point where their MPs limit themselves to 3 times the minimum salary (which would be around 2500€ a month). So now buying a huge and expensive home in a rich neiughbourhood comes off as quite hypocritical from Iglesias.
Is Iglesias well paid by HispanTV? I know he presents two programs there.
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tack50
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« Reply #1753 on: May 19, 2018, 02:02:13 pm »

Pablo Iglesias' house stuff has taken an unexpected turn! Apparently after all the drama and internal complaints from some Podemos members (the most prominent one probably being the one from the mayor of Cádiz), he and Montero will put themselves on a referendum upon party members, on whether he should stay as party leader, or resign.

The actual question is: "Do you consider that Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero should stay as secretary general and parliamentary speaker of Podemos?"

Personally, I think he'll easily survive, he wouldn't call the internal referendum if he thought he was going to lose. Plus it would throw Podemos in a lot of disarray 1 year before the regional elections.

Though it's worth mentioning that on the last party vote back in January of 2017, he didn't exactly cruise without opposition, winning only around 54% of the vote, compared to Errejón's 33% and 9% for the anti-capitalists. An upset is extremely unlikely, but I guess not completely so.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/05/19/5b0046ca268e3e0a3b8b4622.html
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tack50
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« Reply #1754 on: May 20, 2018, 05:11:11 am »

Also, while everyone expected article 155 to be lifted shortly, now that Torra has named a new government, PM Rajoy has said he won't lift article 155, as several of his cabinet ministers are in prision or "exiled", and that article 155 will only be lifed when Torra names a proper cabinet.

I'm somewhat surprised by this though not too much. I guess he wants to appear "tough on Catalonia"? PP and Cs seem to be in a competition for that lol. Even PSOE is trying to appear somewhat tough as well! (so much for Sánchez's campaign 1 year ago)
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tack50
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« Reply #1755 on: May 23, 2018, 01:42:52 pm »

The 2018 budget has finally been passed, with the same vote as the 2017 one:

Yes: 176/350 (PP, Cs, PNV, CC, NCa, Foro Asturias, UPN

No: 174/350 (PSOE, Podemos, ERC, PDECat, Compromís, Bildu)

However up until the vote it was unclear whether it would pass or not! PNV had promised not to pass the budget until article 155 was lifted. However they had to break that promise, claiming that "article 155 will be lifted imminently" (not really if Torra keeps behaving like this but whatever)

They did get a lot in the budget, like more money for the Basque Country, or a rise in pensions. Similarly the Canarian parties got more money for the Canary Islands and a rise in the discount for flights to the mainland.

I guess PNV might lose some more nationalist voters to Bildu. However this is a big breath of oxygen for PP, who manages to extend the life of parliament at least until late 2019, something sorely needed as Cs stays high in polls.
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« Reply #1756 on: May 25, 2018, 06:17:06 am »
« Edited: May 25, 2018, 06:27:30 am by Velasco »

"Socialists file no-confidence motion against PM in wake of Gürtel corruption ruling"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/05/25/inenglish/1527237249_668560.html

The impact of the court ruling on the PP corruption scheme could be devastating for the governing party and might lead toa reshaping of Spanish politics.

Consider this: Mani Pulite was lethal for the Christian Democrats un Italy. The void was filled by Silvio Berlusconi, whose platform can be described as "national populist" with some liberal elements.

In Spain, the conflict on Catalonia plus the corruption in the Popular Party, the inefficacy of the left and a climate of political deadlock are boosting Ciudadanos. The Albert Rivera party was born in Catalonia to oppose Catalan nationalism. On paper, Cs is a liberal party and Rivera claims to be The Spanish version of Emmanuel Macron and Barack Obama. Don't get fooled: Ciudadanos is the new Spanish nationalist right and wants to fill the void that PP is going to left. As a political analyst said recently on the launching of the "España Ciudadana" platform, people was expecting to see the birth of the Spanish En Marche! But on past Sunday Albert Rivera launched "Forza España", with echoes of José Antonio Primo de Rivera ("neither workers nor entrepeneurs, I only see Spaniards") and huge Spanish flags. Cs is right now the preferred party of the big business and the likely winner of a snap election. I feel a huge feeling of gratitude towards Catalan separatists: Cs nationalism is their mirror image
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« Reply #1757 on: May 25, 2018, 06:28:02 am »

And just like that Cs has filed its own no confidence motion.
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The Saint
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« Reply #1758 on: May 25, 2018, 06:29:09 am »

And just like that Cs has filed its own no confidence motion.

Election time, baby!

Also the “Cs = right-wing nationalists” meme is getting old
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tack50
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« Reply #1759 on: May 25, 2018, 06:54:44 am »

And just like that Cs has filed its own no confidence motion.

That's impossible. You need 35 MPs to file a no confidence motion, Cs only has 32. So Cs can't file a no confidence motion alone
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« Reply #1760 on: May 25, 2018, 06:59:23 am »
« Edited: May 25, 2018, 07:05:54 am by Oryxslayer »

HERE WE GO. This can't be more perfect for C's. The election will be called over Catalonia - C's strength, Podemos is in disarray giving them more youth voters, and the motion is a Opposition vote rather than a C's vote that would appear opportunistic.
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« Reply #1761 on: May 25, 2018, 07:18:57 am »
« Edited: May 25, 2018, 03:25:52 pm by Lord Halifax »

And just like that Cs has filed its own no confidence motion.

Election time, baby!

Also the “Cs = right-wing nationalists” meme is getting old

It's not a meme, but a simple fact. Facts do not get old.
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tack50
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« Reply #1762 on: May 25, 2018, 07:33:38 am »

Keep in mind everyone that it's far from clear whether the no confidence vote will actually be successful. There are 2 possible ways for the no confidence vote to be successful (176/350 MPs are needed, an overall majority):

PSOE+Cs+Podemos
PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV

Also, a no confidence vote just to call a snap election is vastly different from one where PSOE would actually try to govern for a while. It seems PSOE prefers the latter as long as they don't have to deal with the secessionists (though in a break from what PSOE policy used to be, Sánchez is open to that option!). While Cs obviously prefers a snap election.

 
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« Reply #1763 on: May 25, 2018, 08:06:51 am »

Keep in mind everyone that it's far from clear whether the no confidence vote will actually be successful. There are 2 possible ways for the no confidence vote to be successful (176/350 MPs are needed, an overall majority):

PSOE+Cs+Podemos
PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV

Also, a no confidence vote just to call a snap election is vastly different from one where PSOE would actually try to govern for a while. It seems PSOE prefers the latter as long as they don't have to deal with the secessionists (though in a break from what PSOE policy used to be, Sánchez is open to that option!). While Cs obviously prefers a snap election.

 

Does the no confidence motion need a majority of all MPs to carry or just a relative plurality over votes against the motion.  It seems PP can really only count on its own MPs to vote against the motion.   The rest will be a combination of for or abstain but it seems hard to see how PP wins this if the rules say that a relative plurality is enough for the motion to carry.   

On snap election why would that not be a done deal unless PP will back a PSOE administration if the motion carries ?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1764 on: May 25, 2018, 09:02:27 am »
« Edited: May 25, 2018, 09:38:38 am by Velasco »

And just like that Cs has filed its own no confidence motion.

Election time, baby!

Also the “Cs = right-wing nationalists” meme is getting old


Its not a meme, but a simple fact. Facts do not get old.

Oranges didn't file a motion for two reasons: 1) they don't have enough seats 2) that's not their strategy

Cs is asking Mr Rajoy to resign and call elections "within a few weeks", in order to close proceedings concerning the budget and (more importantly) to extend the implementation of article 155 (direct rule) un Catalonia. Cs has a tougher stance than PP in that regard and demands the intervention of central government in regional televisión (TV3, allegedly It has a strong pro-independence bias).

In case Mariano Rajoy doesn't resign within that period of time, Cs could consider to "promote" or "support" a motion of no confidence providing that elections are called immediately.

Also, Cs asked Pedro Sánchez to withdraw his motion in order that Mr Rajoy can resign.

Oranges are unwilling to help Mr Sánchez in his attempt to reach premiership on the backs of"populists" (Podemos) and "separatists" (Catalan nationalists).

As for the"right-wing nationalist meme". Oranges are not as radical as Fidesz or the Austrian 'liberals'. However, the staging of their weekend event suggests that they have more things incommon with Berlusconi's populism than with Macron's "civil patriotism".
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The Saint
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« Reply #1765 on: May 25, 2018, 10:14:24 am »

I guess I fail to see how a party dedicated to liberal values, economic liberalism, etc. is comparable to the likes of Marine Le Pen.
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« Reply #1766 on: May 25, 2018, 02:09:28 pm »

Keep in mind everyone that it's far from clear whether the no confidence vote will actually be successful. There are 2 possible ways for the no confidence vote to be successful (176/350 MPs are needed, an overall majority):

PSOE+Cs+Podemos
PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV

Also, a no confidence vote just to call a snap election is vastly different from one where PSOE would actually try to govern for a while. It seems PSOE prefers the latter as long as they don't have to deal with the secessionists (though in a break from what PSOE policy used to be, Sánchez is open to that option!). While Cs obviously prefers a snap election.

 

Cs won’t support the no confidence vote so it will all depend on PNV (again)
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Velasco
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« Reply #1767 on: May 25, 2018, 03:34:45 pm »

I guess I fail to see how a party dedicated to liberal values, economic liberalism, etc. is comparable to the likes of Marine Le Pen.

Cs is not comparable with the likes of Le Pen. I said that they are not radical right-eingers like Fidesz or the Austrian party. Cs is neither xenophobic nor anti-immigration. However, besides liberal values (debatable) and economic liberalism, many people see nationalist and populist elements in them (Berlusconi style). Cs is much of a catch-all-party that appeals to the Spanish national pride and  confronts peripheral nationalism.

Keep in mind that, with regard yo national emblems like the flag and the anthem, the attitude of Spanish people is different from other countries. Due to historical reasons (Franco's regime was nationalistic and appropiated the emblems) and the existence of different national sensibilities within Spain (Basque, Catalan, etc), the national flag and the anthem are not elements of cohesion. In countries like France or the USA it's possible to build national consensus around national emblems. That is not possible in Spain.
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« Reply #1768 on: May 26, 2018, 08:00:49 am »

Worth noting that Fidesz itself started a liberal group of students (funded by Soros, no less) before it took the reigns of power.
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« Reply #1769 on: May 27, 2018, 04:07:27 pm »





PP way down, if these numbers are accurate, then a C's-PSOE govt will be formed in the event of a snap election...
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tack50
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« Reply #1770 on: May 27, 2018, 05:55:51 pm »

To be fair, El Español-Sociométrica is quite a PP-unfriendly pollster (to the point where they are the only ones that give Vox seats).

Another poll today, this time by NC Report-La Razón shows a radically different picture.



However, NC Report did its interviews until the 25th of May, which means that the most recient events like the no confidence proposal were not captured. El Español polled for 1 more day (until the 26th) and claim that of the 1700 interviews, 300 happened after the no confidence vote was proposed.

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. PP has certainly lost the 2nd place spot to PSOE by now, but is probably ahead of Podemos.

Also, sidenote:

Iglesias and Montero have won their internal referendum. Turnout was extremely high (180 000 people), the highest in Podemos history. They won the referendum 68-32%. So, higher than the 2017 primary when he only got 55%, but still low especially since a chunk of the vote happened after the no confidence vote and the Gürtel ruling. I'd say that if Podemos gets a bad result, Iglesias should retire
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« Reply #1771 on: May 27, 2018, 06:26:31 pm »

The no confidence motion depends on the PNV. I really think they would hate to vote against the PP but that would depend on part on the support for the motion in Euskadi. Rajoy (and in general, the spanish right) is deeply unpopular in the basque country, so I think the population will hate if the PNV is saw as a "savior" of Rajoy. What could happen in the regionals of next year? Could Urkullu lost the election? Who would benefit in that case? EH Bildu?
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tack50
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« Reply #1772 on: May 27, 2018, 07:02:22 pm »

The no confidence motion depends on the PNV. I really think they would hate to vote against the PP but that would depend on part on the support for the motion in Euskadi. Rajoy (and in general, the spanish right) is deeply unpopular in the basque country, so I think the population will hate if the PNV is saw as a "savior" of Rajoy. What could happen in the regionals of next year? Could Urkullu lost the election? Who would benefit in that case? EH Bildu?

EH Bildu would certainly benefit the most. Maybe PSOE or Podemos also rise a bit but unlikely.

However Urkullu is definitely not losing the election. Current regional Basque polls are predicting PNV going up, not down. I guess it might stall PNV's momentum and bring them back to their 2016 results at worst.

Keep in mind that PNV has been in power every time except for the short 2009-2012 PSOE government propped up by PP, and the 2009 election was already controversial sincer Batasuna and their fake "totally not Batasuna" replacements were banned. PNV is a very flexible party, they have done deals with basically everyone in the Basque parliament, from Bildu (or Batasuna back in the day) to PP, to PSOE and IU

In any case, the next Basque election is not due until late 2020 so it's too early to talk about that.

And I wouldn't be so sure that it depends on PNV. The Catalan nationalists (especially PDECat apparently) are also not very happy with voting for Sánchez. I could see a scenario where the no confidence motion is completely derailed and only PSOE and Podemos vote in favour!

It would still be the most successful no confidence vote in Spanish history though. 156 votes in favour. The current record is the 1980 one against Suárez (152 in favour)
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« Reply #1773 on: May 27, 2018, 10:17:45 pm »

The no confidence motion depends on the PNV. I really think they would hate to vote against the PP but that would depend on part on the support for the motion in Euskadi. Rajoy (and in general, the spanish right) is deeply unpopular in the basque country, so I think the population will hate if the PNV is saw as a "savior" of Rajoy. What could happen in the regionals of next year? Could Urkullu lost the election? Who would benefit in that case? EH Bildu?

EH Bildu would certainly benefit the most. Maybe PSOE or Podemos also rise a bit but unlikely.

However Urkullu is definitely not losing the election. Current regional Basque polls are predicting PNV going up, not down. I guess it might stall PNV's momentum and bring them back to their 2016 results at worst.

Keep in mind that PNV has been in power every time except for the short 2009-2012 PSOE government propped up by PP, and the 2009 election was already controversial sincer Batasuna and their fake "totally not Batasuna" replacements were banned. PNV is a very flexible party, they have done deals with basically everyone in the Basque parliament, from Bildu (or Batasuna back in the day) to PP, to PSOE and IU

In any case, the next Basque election is not due until late 2020 so it's too early to talk about that.

And I wouldn't be so sure that it depends on PNV. The Catalan nationalists (especially PDECat apparently) are also not very happy with voting for Sánchez. I could see a scenario where the no confidence motion is completely derailed and only PSOE and Podemos vote in favour!

It would still be the most successful no confidence vote in Spanish history though. 156 votes in favour. The current record is the 1980 one against Suárez (152 in favour)

Thanks for the answer, it's pretty amazing that party, I think it's by far the most politically successful (and skillful) of Spanish politics (although I hate their approach to politics).

Although I disagree on PdCat, from what I read, although some parts of JuntsxCat (the Puigdemont faction) wouldn't vote for Sanchez, the people from PdCat who are in Spanish congress don't have too much problems supporting the no confidence motion. Probably they could demand some symbolic thing (maybe apologizing to Torrant about calling him Nazi or some promise about the 155) but they could not put too much pressure on Sanchez.

So you think the no confidence motion will not pass?
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« Reply #1774 on: May 28, 2018, 07:13:27 am »

Rivera tells EL Mundo that fefore discussing possible support for Socialist party’s no-confidence motion against Rajoy, it would be necessary to discuss other issues including extension of direct rule of central government in Catalonia. He said it is also key to guarantee that budget bill is passed in Senate
Once those two issues are guaranteed, then Rajoy should call elections.  Should Rajoy refuse to call elections, Ciudadanos will demand Socialists withdraw their motion and submit a new joint non-confidence motion aimed at calling elections.

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