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Velasco
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« Reply #1825 on: June 02, 2018, 01:50:50 am »
« edited: June 02, 2018, 01:54:11 am by Velasco »

What a mess Spain is in....

I think Sanchéz will find himself whitout any real power. First, he will govern with the budget, which is the center piece of every governmental agenda, approved by PP, C's, PNV and that his party voted against. UP and other parties have already sent a motion against the budget to the Senate. Awkward. Then, his coalition is really shaky, to say the least. Mixing UP, the Catalan independents plus the PNV, a center-right regionalist party, in the same bag, well... it's really a Frankenstein coalition (...)

I understand your point of view and it's possible that I could agree with you on certain points, at least to some extent. As I said before, the situation is extremely complicated and prospects very uncertain. It's true that a government supported by less than 1/4 of the parliament is going to be very fragile. Also, it's true that the coalition supporting the no-confidence motion is very heterogeneous. However, I dislike the expression "Frankenstein coalition". It has been used by PP and Cs, as well by Madrid newspapers in order to question the legitimacy of the motion. When they are not conservative papers that support PP with various degrees of bigotry (all the papers that have used the word "Frankenstein"), they are rooting for Cs (case of El País).

Pedro Sánchez asked Rajoy to resign during the motion debate, but the ousted PM refused because it would have implied to accept his political responsibility in the PP corruption scheme. I think the ruling makes clear that Rajoy lied when he testified before the Court, as well establishes that Rajoy and other PP leaders received bonus payments from former treasurer Bárcenas (now convicted). Rivera, on the other hand, asked Rajoy to resign and asked Pedro Sánchez to withdraw his motion in order to put an "instrumental candidate" who called a snap election. I think Rajoy had every right to refuse, even though I find his attitude deplorable and morally reprehensible. Also, Albert Rivera has every right to demand Sánchez to do whatever he wishes. However, Cs lacks the strength to impose the political agenda because its good poll showing doesn't give seats in parliament. In case Rajoy had resigned, the course of events would have led to new elections. He refused and the motion followed its course. Pedro Sánchez has every right to make his attempt, even though governing is going to be a very difficult task. I'd say that the only thing that could bring the heterogeneous coalition together is the current opinion polling, which places Cs as the inevitable coalition partner in any government formation (either PP-Cs, PSOE-Cs or vice-cersa). Personally I don't want to see Rivera in government, so I'll send Sánchez my best wishes.

On a side note, I think the current government in Denmark is backed by 30% of parliament. I'm not implying that the political situations are remotely comparable. Denmark looks much more stable right now. However, minority governments are not uncommon in Europe.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1826 on: June 02, 2018, 09:08:17 am »
« Edited: June 02, 2018, 09:15:17 am by Velasco »

"Sánchez vs Frankenstein"

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180602/443990630548/sanchez-presidente-gobierno-relevo-moncloa.html

The expression "Frankenstein government" was coined by former PSOE leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba in 2016 to fescribe the attempt of bringing Podemos and Cs together made by Pedro Sánchez. The worst enemies are always in Tour party.

Now the frame or the narrative of the Spanish Right and its allied media is: "Goodbye Rajoy. Welcome Frankenstein".

Certain Paulo Portas coined the expression "governo geringonça" in Portugal. Portas must be very smart, witty and Sharp, just like Pérez Rubalcaba.

The task of Pedro Sánchez is going to be much more difficult than the task of António Costa in 2015, ir the task of Rodríguez Zapatero in 2004.

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« Reply #1827 on: June 02, 2018, 10:16:19 am »

The thing is, this really isn't a government - it is a ramshackle lean-to designed to last as long as it needs too. For example, I doubt the coalition can pass the 2019 budget, especially with the opposition senate. So like others have said, I suspect this government will only last until the election is most favorable to PSOE - which probably means a reasonable lead over C's. With the way how polls have been for a while, the only two governments that could be formed are some orientation of PP+C's or  C's+PSOE. If a red/Orange government has to be formed, then it makes sense Sanchez wants to be the one dictating the terms rather than C's.
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« Reply #1828 on: June 02, 2018, 10:56:50 am »

It's interesting to see the non-independentist media in Catalonia (particularly El Periodico and La Vanguardia) very hopeful about the Sanchez government. Not that they expect a successful government, but you can see for the first time that both parts are interested in talk, and we can expect for the first time (baby) steps to ease the situation. Their "happines"" reflects the terrible environment Catalonia is  


Honestly I wish the best to Sanchez, and I don't care if he govern with the PP budget. He needs to advance on some thing (end the Mordaza law and eliminate some vetoes). I really hope that the main loser (besides PP) is Cs. PSOE need to take votes from them. When we see that happening, that's the time to call elections.
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« Reply #1829 on: June 02, 2018, 01:27:55 pm »

"Sánchez vs Frankenstein"

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180602/443990630548/sanchez-presidente-gobierno-relevo-moncloa.html

The expression "Frankenstein government" was coined by former PSOE leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba in 2016 to fescribe the attempt of bringing Podemos and Cs together made by Pedro Sánchez. The worst enemies are always in Tour party.

Now the frame or the narrative of the Spanish Right and its allied media is: "Goodbye Rajoy. Welcome Frankenstein".

Certain Paulo Portas coined the expression "governo geringonça" in Portugal. Portas must be very smart, witty and Sharp, just like Pérez Rubalcaba.

The task of Pedro Sánchez is going to be much more difficult than the task of António Costa in 2015, ir the task of Rodríguez Zapatero in 2004.


Didn't knew the term "Frankenstein" was given by the C's friendly press. I thought El País was pró-PSOE, at least they were in the past. Público and Diário de Notícias, the most PS friendly press here in Portugal, are also using the term "Frankenstein", thus my surprise. Yes, Paulo Portas was smarter than the PSD around here. He understood that the "geringonça" would prevail and left the stage as fast as he could. It was reported here, that he warned Rajoy on what he should or shouldn't do, after the inconclusive Spanish 2015 elections.

I agree with you that Sanchéz task is 10 times more harder than Costa. Costa was lucky to have a PSD so bitter and angry at him, that they predicted the coming of the devil, meaning recession, and went full blown pessimistic, giving space for Costa, when businesses understood that nothing would change under him, to gain from the good economic news, that if the PSD was as smart as Paulo Portas, would on the contrary benefit the PSD. The rest is history. A word of advice for C's and PP, don't go to the speech that everything would be a disaster with PSOE. It will, most certainly, backfire. The PP could also rise if they change their leader to either Feijóo of Sáenz de Santamaría, and bring back many PP voters that are trending C's.

I continue with my view that by late this year, earlier 2019, a election will be held. Sanchéz could delay a bit to coincide with the May EU and local elections, in order for PSOE to gain a bit in the polls. They will gain some points because power makes you rise in the polls, it always does.
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tack50
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« Reply #1830 on: June 04, 2018, 12:35:39 pm »

While the full Sánchez cabinet won't be presented until tomorrow, we do have at least 1 name fully confirmed.

Josep Borrell, PM candidate for the 2000 election, minister of public works under Felipe González and former speaker of the European parliament, will be Sánchez's minister of foreign affairs.

He is also famous for his speeches at the 2 large unionist rallies in Catalonia, back when the issue was at its peak.

Borrell was interestingly the only former PSOE leader who supported Sánchez back on the primaries, and his own career has some similarities with Sánchez's; particularly his 2000 run, when he defeated the establishment candidate Almunia. Borrell had to drop out later and make Almunia the PM candidate as he was uncomfortable without having support from the establishment and a corruption scandal involving some of his colleagues appeared.

As for other stuff about the Sánchez cabinet, we also fully know that it will have the same number of  women and men, just like the Zapatero cabinets (funnily enough, González's first cabinet had 0 women whatsoever XD). He will apparently also recover the "Equality ministry" which was short lived under Zapatero's 2nd term. Finally, the number of ministries will probably be increased.

In any case though, all doubts will be solved tomorrow.
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« Reply #1831 on: June 04, 2018, 01:20:33 pm »

Will Sanchez tackle constitutional reform?

What are the people's thoughts here about federalising Spain as a solution to the Catalonian Problem?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1832 on: June 04, 2018, 01:25:27 pm »

Will Sanchez tackle constitutional reform?

What are the people's thoughts here about federalising Spain as a solution to the Catalonian Problem?

This government probably can't hope to pass the 2019 budget, and you think constitutional reform is on the cards? Sanchez wants to win the inevitable upcoming elections and end up forming a PSOE-C's collation (Podemos is too far back) - not rock the boat and switch the roles around.

Besides, PP still controls the senate.
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« Reply #1833 on: June 04, 2018, 01:29:33 pm »

Will Sanchez tackle constitutional reform?

What are the people's thoughts here about federalising Spain as a solution to the Catalonian Problem?

This government probably can't hope to pass the 2019 budget, and you think constitutional reform is on the cards? Sanchez wants to win the inevitable upcoming elections and end up forming a PSOE-C's collation (Podemos is too far back) - not rock the boat and switch the roles around.

Besides, PP still controls the senate.

Probably not, but you could start rolling out ideas before the government's inevitable collapse; it would help if the government doesn't just punt on these important issues. Maybe what Spain needs is an Iceland style constitutional assembly (ignore the fact that that ended up scrapped by the PP and IP) or whatever.
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tack50
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« Reply #1834 on: June 04, 2018, 02:46:13 pm »
« Edited: June 04, 2018, 02:55:03 pm by tack50 »

Will Sanchez tackle constitutional reform?

What are the people's thoughts here about federalising Spain as a solution to the Catalonian Problem?

The first one no, no way Sánchez tackles constitutional reform. It's one of PSOE's projects but with such an unstable government there's no way he does that. Plus it would be very controversial and he lacks the numbers anyways (such a reform would need PP+PSOE at the very least)

As for federalising Spain, both PSOE and Podemos are in favour of that. However neither has developed their proposals. In PSOE's case they are split on whether regions should have financial autonomy (which would be harmful to PSOE's base in the poor rural south) and on whether that federalism should be symmetrical or assymetrical. And of course which places of Spain qualify as "nations" as opposed to mere "regions". Have heard even less from Podemos, other than that they want a plurinational Spain and that they accept the right for regions to become independent, which PSOE doesn't.

I guess secessionists and nationalists would probably vote for it but feel it's underwhelming unless it includes a referendum. And of course both PP and Cs are very much opposed.

And this also translates to polling. From the latest CIS poll (April 2018) here's support for expanding devolution or centralizing Spain by party:

Img


So apparently centralism has more support than further federalism, but the status quo still beats both (though support for it is slowly declining iirc).

Interestingly, both PP and Cs have a majority in favour of further centralism, while PSOE has a majority for the status quo even though they are pushing for further federalism. And even in Podemos federalists only barely beat the status quo 36-35 for the main branch (their Catalan, Valencian and Galician semi-independent branches all have much better numbers).

By region we don't have any recient numbers, there are polls from 2015. In any case, federalists only beat centralists in the Basque Country, Catalonia, Navarra and the Balearic Islands iirc. Though centralists only were an overall majority of the electorate in Castille Leon and surprisingly Aragon.

And to answer your question about a constitutional assembly, that's never going to happen lol. Most likely is that PP-Cs start yelling "Sánchez will turn Spain into Venezuela!!!11!" and win. Not to mention that there's no real way to do that. I guess they could call a standard snap election and call it like that. But I don't think even Podemos would create a "constitutional assembly".
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tack50
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« Reply #1835 on: June 05, 2018, 06:48:12 am »

Mariano Rajoy has announced his intention to leave politics and stop being leader of PP. He will shortly call an extraorinary party congress for him to be replaced.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180605/444120854458/mariano-rajoy-presidencia-pp-sucesion.html

In any case, it seems the frontrunners to replace Rajoy are probably former deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and regional president of Galicia Alberto Nuñez Feijoo. I'd say Feijoo would give more of a "renovation" ambient, but he has an infamous photo with Marcial Dorado, a drug trafficker. Soraya is probably too close to Rajoy and would give less renovation but still.

There is also the possibility of someone else winning instead though.

What I'm wondering is how they'll elect their new leader. Will Rajoy simply appoint someone and the party blindly accept it? (like how Fraga appointed Aznar and Aznar appointed Rajoy). Or will there be a contested congress?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1836 on: June 05, 2018, 07:41:28 am »

"Sánchez vs Frankenstein"

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180602/443990630548/sanchez-presidente-gobierno-relevo-moncloa.html

The expression "Frankenstein government" was coined by former PSOE leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba in 2016 to fescribe the attempt of bringing Podemos and Cs together made by Pedro Sánchez. The worst enemies are always in Tour party.

Now the frame or the narrative of the Spanish Right and its allied media is: "Goodbye Rajoy. Welcome Frankenstein".

Certain Paulo Portas coined the expression "governo geringonça" in Portugal. Portas must be very smart, witty and Sharp, just like Pérez Rubalcaba.

The task of Pedro Sánchez is going to be much more difficult than the task of António Costa in 2015, ir the task of Rodríguez Zapatero in 2004.


Didn't knew the term "Frankenstein" was given by the C's friendly press. I thought El País was pró-PSOE, at least they were in the past. Público and Diário de Notícias, the most PS friendly press here in Portugal, are also using the term "Frankenstein", thus my surprise. Yes, Paulo Portas was smarter than the PSD around here. He understood that the "geringonça" would prevail and left the stage as fast as he could. It was reported here, that he warned Rajoy on what he should or shouldn't do, after the inconclusive Spanish 2015 elections.

I agree with you that Sanchéz task is 10 times more harder than Costa. Costa was lucky to have a PSD so bitter and angry at him, that they predicted the coming of the devil, meaning recession, and went full blown pessimistic, giving space for Costa, when businesses understood that nothing would change under him, to gain from the good economic news, that if the PSD was as smart as Paulo Portas, would on the contrary benefit the PSD. The rest is history. A word of advice for C's and PP, don't go to the speech that everything would be a disaster with PSOE. It will, most certainly, backfire. The PP could also rise if they change their leader to either Feijóo of Sáenz de Santamaría, and bring back many PP voters that are trending C's.

I continue with my view that by late this year, earlier 2019, a election will be held. Sanchéz could delay a bit to coincide with the May EU and local elections, in order for PSOE to gain a bit in the polls. They will gain some points because power makes you rise in the polls, it always does.

El País has been always regarded as a pro-PSOE newspaper, although I'd say that its editorial line was more close to social-liberalism than socialdemocracy and in the last years it has been shifting to the right. Editors of El País used to claim that Spain needs a "modern" and "liberal" centre-right party similar to other mainstream parties in Western Europe. El País and the rest of Madrid papers and media outlets backed Susana Díaz against Pedro Sánchez. In the last times its editorials have been very well tunned with Cs stances. It's not a secret that Cs has a powerful media and business support.

However, the tactical mistakes of Albert Rivera in the no-confidence motion have received criticism in El País. As well, one of its star columnists criticized the "jingoist" opening ceremony of  España Ciudadana (aimed to be a "civil society" platform in the style of En Marche!). El País editor Antonio Caño wrote an opinion article advising Sánchez to follow a "modern" and "reformist" socialdemocratic line because that's the best way to fight the dangers of "populsim" and "nationalism"...

"The defeat of Rivera" by José Ignacio Torreblanca

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/03/opinion/1528056415_470501.html

"The jingoist delusion of Rivera" by Rubén Amón

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/05/21/opinion/1526896633_872322.html

"There's a path to the left" by Antonio Caño

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/01/opinion/1527879683_678856.html

Let's say it's a social-liberal pro-establishmnt paper that is against Catalan separatism and Podemos' left-wing populism, between the right wing of PSOE and the oranges.

Everything points that PP is going to implement a tough and aggresive opposition. PP needs to mask its terrible state of disorientation and confusion, as well to play a leading role against Cs.

Oranges are blurred and confused right now, but I doubt they are dead. PP is clearly in decline and its voter base is ageing, but its territorial implemenrtation is very robust. Núñez Feijoó seems to be very well placed in the sucession line, while the hostility between Soraya Sáez de Santamaría and María Dolores de Cospedal plays against both women.

Possibly Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE aim to last until the next year elections have passed. Regional. Local and European elections are scheduled in 2019. We'll see...

I am beginning to like the idea of a "Frankenstein Government". The appointment of Josep Borrell in Foreign Affairs is great news, in my opinion.



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Velasco
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« Reply #1837 on: June 05, 2018, 07:43:14 am »

Mariano Rajoy has announced his intention to leave politics and stop being leader of PP. He will shortly call an extraorinary party congress for him to be replaced.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180605/444120854458/mariano-rajoy-presidencia-pp-sucesion.html

Wow
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tack50
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« Reply #1838 on: June 06, 2018, 08:08:58 pm »

Today, PM Sánchez finally presented his entire cabinet. There will be 17 ministers. One of the more interesting things is that there will be 11 women and 6 men, actually a world record! So much for equality I guess XD

The other interesting thing is that this is quite a technocratic cabinet. Many ministers have experience on their related fields and there's a sizable amount of (nominal) independents (7), while there are few career politicians.

Anyways, here is the entire cabinet:

Prime Minister: Pedro Sánchez. Former MP for Madrid (2013-2016), secretary general of PSOE

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Deputy Prime Minister and minister of equality: Carmen Calvo. Doctor in constitutional law, former minister of culture (2004-2007). Helped Sánchez when he ran for his old job, and helped negotiate article 155.

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Minister of education and government speaker: Isabel Celaá. Former regional minister of education in the Basque Country (2009-2012).

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Minister of Agriculture, fishing and alimentation: Luis Planas. Former regional minister of Agriculture in Andalucía (2012-2013). Ran against Susana Díaz in PSOE-A's regional leadership election. Has also had some agriculture related jobs in the EU.

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Minister of foreign affairs, European Union and cooperation: Josep Borrell. Former speaker of the European Parliament (2004-2007). Former minister of public works under Felipe González (1993-1996). Failed 2000 PM candidate. He is also quite known for his unionist speeches in Catalonia.

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Minister of Science, innovation and universities: Pedro Duque. An astronaut for the ESA and an aerospace engineer. Probably one of the most interesting ministers

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Minister of culture and sports: Màxim Huerta. Journalist who worked for quite a while in a morning program. He has apparently written 5 books as well. Another interesting minister.

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Minister of defense: Margarita Robles. Speaker of the PSOE parliamentary group. Another of the people who were behind Sánchez the entire time and part of his close group. Also a high ranking member of the ministry of the interior under González (basically "deputy minister") and a supreme court judge.

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Minister of economics and business: Nadia Calviño. Economist and the head of the bugdet direction of the European Comission.

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Minister of public works: Jose Luis Ábalos. Another of the closest group of Sánchez supporters. MP for Valencia.

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Minister of the treasury: María Jesús Montero. Regional minister of the treasury under Susana Díaz (2013-2018), also regional minister of healthcare under various andalusian governments (2004-2013). She also has a degree in medicine.

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Minister of industry, commerce and tourism: María Reyes Maroto. Regional MP in Madrid's regional assembly and speaker of the budget committee in Madrid's regional assembly.

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Minister of the interior: Fernando Grande-Marlaska. Former judge of the Audiencia Nacional and member of the general council of the judiciary (appointed by PP interestingly!)

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Minister of justice: Dolores delgado. A prosecutor specialized in fighting against yihadist terrorism. Member of the prosecutor's council.

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Minister of territorial policy and public function: Meritxell Batet. Number 1 member of parliament for Barcelona. Former teacher of administrative law and of constitutional law at Pompeu Fabra university in Barcelona.

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Minister of healthcare, consumption and social welfare: Regional minister of healthcare in the Valencian Community (2015-2018). She's also been an MP in Congress (2004-2015)

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Minister of labour, inmigration and social security: Magdalena Valerio. Former Regional minister of labour (2005-2007); tourism (2007-2008) and justice (2008-2010) in Castille-La Mancha and former MP for Guadalajara (2011-2016)

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Minister of ecological transition: Teresa Rivera. Former secretary of state of the environment and climate change, and former  head of the Spanish office of climate change (2004-2011)

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« Reply #1839 on: June 06, 2018, 08:13:59 pm »

I guess the whole point of a technocratic and more moderate cabinet over one more partisan loyal is to portray the PSOE as the stable and productive party in the upcoming elections.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1840 on: June 07, 2018, 07:07:33 am »
« Edited: June 07, 2018, 09:42:46 am by Velasco »

I guess the whole point of a technocratic and more moderate cabinet over one more partisan loyal is to portray the PSOE as the stable and productive party in the upcoming elections.

Sánchez wants to convey the idea of a solid and technically skilled government that represents the modern Spain, in contrast with the old-fashioned XIX Century style of Matiano Rajoy and the low profile of many members of his cabinet, hardly known by the Spanish public. Also, Pedro Sánchez stated that feminist demonstrations on March 8 marked a turning point in Spain and his government wants to reflect changes in the Spanish society. There are many skilled women in society, but there are few in powerful positions due to the so-called "glass ceiling". The high number of women is a gesture, a declaration of intent. Given its fragile parliamentary minority, this government will have to negotiate a lot and make a lot of gestures on order to gain the public opinión.

My first impression is very positive. I like all appointmrnts with the possible exceptions of Maxim Huerta and judge Grande-Marlaska.

EDIT: The moderate profile of the cabinet and the inclusion of people like Nadia Calviño, Josep Borrell otr Grande-Marlaska seem to be aimed to fight in the centre against Ciudadanos. The feminist character of this government appeals to young women, because Sánchez felt that PSOE was losing their vote after March 8.
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« Reply #1841 on: June 07, 2018, 07:47:51 am »
« Edited: June 07, 2018, 07:52:00 am by TheDeadFlagBlues »

Unfortunately or, perhaps, fortunately, depending on your perspective on the purpose and strategy of governance, PSOE may have had poor timing in executing its parliamentary coup of the PP. Strangely, the brewing problems that are affecting emerging markets in Turkey, Brazil, Argentina and others may be of great importance to Spain, as the Spanish financial sector is very exposed to credit shocks. This is not immediately obvious, especially as business journalists have decided that the problems that began in Argentina and Turkey are isolated, even as currency devaluations in emerging markets have become common, suggesting that there is some sort of "contagion" effect but it's certainly the case that what occurs in Brazil and Turkey cannot be isolated from Spain:
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One may argue that Spain may be spared this nasty shock to its financial sector on the basis that, individually, a deep recession in any given emerging economy would not be enough to bring its banks under but there appears to be a simultaneity of shocks in emerging markets. Suffice it to say that I hope that the PSOE government is prepared for this, the Spanish financial sector has, again, taken on a great deal of risk. I'd post this elsewhere but I'm not sure if it merits a separate thread - I felt that it ought to be considered here, as, in some ways, there is an eerie resemblance between contemporaneous events and the emerging markets crises of the 90s. If the resemblance is not merely coincidental, Spain will almost certainly be affected.
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« Reply #1842 on: June 07, 2018, 10:07:56 am »

The current period of (unequally distributed) growth in Spain is not going to last forever. Knowing that the Spanish banking sector is exposed to turbulence coming from emerging markets should be a matter of concern. I ignore to what extent the new economic decision makers are aware or concerned by that. It's like nothing has been learnt from the last crisis...
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Velasco
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« Reply #1843 on: June 08, 2018, 03:29:08 am »

New government takes office

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/07/inenglish/1528359765_948129.html

Quote
On Thursday morning, the ministers of the new Socialist Party (PSOE) government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez were officially sworn in at the Zarzuela royal palace in the presence of King Felipe VI. The new lineup has the highest number of female ministers in any government in Europe with 11 of 17 ministries led by women – 61% of the Cabinet (including the prime minister himself)
(,,,)

Spaniards trust more Pedro Sánchez government than Rajoy's for the resolution of problems, poll says

http://cadenaser.com/ser/2018/06/08/politica/1528435287_628929.html

42.8% say the new administration will do better, 24.5% just as the old, 24,4% worse

The main concerns of the government should be:

Unemployment and job insecurity 53.4%, pensions 37.9%, fight against corruption 37.9%, normalization of Catalonia 30.0%, tackling poverty and inequality 29.9%

Soledad Gallego-Díaz set to become the new editor-in-chief of El País

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/07/inenglish/1528370083_541641.html

Quote
Journalist Soledad Gallego-Díaz has been nominated as the new editor-in-chief of EL PAÍS. Staff at the media organization will cast a non-binding vote on the appointment today, paving the way for Gallego-Díaz to replace Antonio Caño at the head of the newspaper

This could reverse the rightward drift of the newspaper   



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« Reply #1844 on: June 08, 2018, 01:01:35 pm »

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Journalist Soledad Gallego-Díaz has been nominated as the new editor-in-chief of EL PAÍS. Staff at the media organization will cast a non-binding vote on the appointment today, paving the way for Gallego-Díaz to replace Antonio Caño at the head of the newspaper

This could reverse the rightward drift of the newspaper   

She is 67, retirement age in most countries. Is it normal to appoint people that old to such positions in Spain?
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tack50
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« Reply #1845 on: June 08, 2018, 01:57:51 pm »

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Journalist Soledad Gallego-Díaz has been nominated as the new editor-in-chief of EL PAÍS. Staff at the media organization will cast a non-binding vote on the appointment today, paving the way for Gallego-Díaz to replace Antonio Caño at the head of the newspaper

This could reverse the rightward drift of the newspaper   

She is 67, retirement age in most countries. Is it normal to appoint people that old to such positions in Spain?

Well, Luis Cebrían, the owner of PRISA (the holding that has El País and other media like the radio station Cadena SER) reciently retired at age 73.

For another comparison, Pedro J. Ramirez, another famous journalist (former head of El Mundo and now head of El Español), is currently 66 years old and is still the boss of a newspaper.
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« Reply #1846 on: June 10, 2018, 07:47:04 am »
« Edited: June 10, 2018, 09:34:41 am by tack50 »

We finally got our first polls after the new government was unveiled. And PSOE gets its first leads in a poll for the first time since 2015!

NC Report for La Razón

PP: 25.5% (105-108)
PSOE: 24.9% (96-99)
Cs: 21.0% (69-72)
UP: 16.7% (50-53)

ERC: 3.1% (10-11)
PDECat: 1.5% (5-6)
PNV: 1.2% (6)
EH Bildu: 0.8% (2)
CC: 0.3% (1)

GAD3 for ABC

PSOE: 28.8% (118)
PP: 25.6% (101)
Cs: 21.1% (70)
UP: 13.1% (34)

ERC: 3.2% (13)
PDECat: 1.6% (5)
PNV: 1% (5)
EH Bildu: 0.8% (3)
CC: 0.3% (1)

Invymark for La Sexta

PSOE 25,1%
PP 23,7%
C’s 22,2%
UP 17,3%
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tack50
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« Reply #1847 on: June 11, 2018, 09:41:36 am »

Well, we now have a date for the PP congress which will elect a new party leader: the congress will take place on the 20th and 21st of July.

And in a very interesting move for PP, there will actually be a primary! Granted it's technically non-binding; but just like in PSOE's case I don't think the party leaders will overturn the results even if they somehow lost to some insurgent (which I definitely don't see happening in PP).

Not only that, but it will be a somewhat complicated 2 round system. In round 1 all PP party members vote. They get 2 votes: one to elect the delegates to the PP party congress (kind of similar to US primaries, except the delegates are unbound?) and in the 2nd they vote directly for party leader. There are 3 ways to win in round 1 with the vote of the PP base:

Win more than 50% of the vote
Win in more than half of Spain's provinces
Beat your closest rival by at least 15%

If no candidate fulfills at least one of those requirements, the final vote between the 2 candidates will be decided in PP's party congress by the delegates, though I guess the runner up will probably drop out.

Considering the rules, I'd say it would be hard to get a "brokered convention" and have the delegates decide. Applying those rules to PSOE's primaries, Sánchez would have won in round 1 both times, even in 2014 when he didn't get a majority.

The full calendar is:

June 18-20: Candidates present their candidacies
25th of June: Last day to register to vote for PP party members
5th of July: PP party members vote
20th/21st of July: PP party congress. Delegates vote on the definitive leader (this vote could be simply symbolic with only 1 candidate or an actual decision)

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/proceso-sustituto-Rajoy-votacion-militantes_0_781122215.html




Also, we have a new poll which basically only confirms what we already knew; PSOE is ahead now out of nowhere. Interestingly, "others" is at 3% and all the nationalists and PACMA aren't in others. I  guess this is a very good poll for Vox, they could easily be getting 1 seat and 2% even if this poll doesn't show them separately

Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es

PSOE: 25.8% (102-105)
PP: 24.3% (98-102)
Cs: 21.1% (65-68)
UP: 17.4% (50-54)

ERC: 3.0% (11)
PDECat: 1.5% (6)
PNV: 1.2% (6)
EH Bildu: 0.9% (2-3)
CC: 0.3% (1)
BNG: 0.2% (0)

PACMA: 1.3% (0)
Others: 3%

This poll should almost certainly show something along the lines of "Vox: 1.7% (1)" but it just groups them on others IMO. Unless fringe stuff like PCPE, UPyD or Zero Cuts-the Greens are out of nowhere polling in the high 0.x% which I don't see happening.



Finally, the infamous ship stranded in the Mediterranean after both Italy and Malta rejected it will go to Spain. I wonder if this will cause a lot of inmigration now. If it does, the right will probably go up and Vox will have the best opportunity of its lifetime.
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« Reply #1848 on: June 11, 2018, 11:22:15 am »

With the news that Sánchez is taking in the rejected migrants, could Vox’s numbers rise if this continues?
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« Reply #1849 on: June 11, 2018, 12:36:07 pm »

Maybe, maybe not. There might not even be a backlash against the left at all! (though I'll admit this is unlikely). Maybe Cs or PP start campaigning against inmigrants and get those votes. Or maybe Vox does rise after all and starts actually registering in polls.

Worth noting that as of now, inmigration is only a top 3 worry for about 3% of Spaniards. Back when inmigration was at its peak (2006-2007) it was a top 3 priority for about 35% of Spaniards. And yet there was no far right populist party rising in the mid 00s.

Closest thing was PxC, a local party in Catalonia which managed some local success and came close to getting seats in 2010, but fizzled out once independence became the number 1 issue there.

However if literally everywhere else in Europe is any indication, they will rise unless Cs/PP manage to steal their voters. If Spain gets a migrant crisis (with such boats coming every week or maybe every few days), and people get worried about it, I could see them getting around 4% of the vote and 4-5 seats but that's incredibly unlikely. Most likely they might rise slightly in the popular vote (say, up to 2.5%) but still be stuck at 1 seat or possibly 2.
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