Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 24, 2019, 12:46:41 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Blind Jaunting)
  Spanish elections and politics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 70 71 72 73 74 [75] 76 77 78 79 80 ... 93 Print
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 274310 times)
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,209
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1850 on: June 12, 2018, 07:04:56 am »

If Matteo Salvini is Trump, then Pedro Sánchez is Trudeau
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,008
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1851 on: June 13, 2018, 11:43:50 am »

The Sánchez government isn't even 2 weeks old and it already has a scandal!

Màxim Huerta, the minister of Culture and Sport (and already quite controversial for his tweets about sport) had resigned this afternoon after it was discovered that he was found guilty of tax evasion in the past and had to pay 365 000€ for it.

He initially refused to resign but after several declarations from both Sánchez about corrupt politicians, critics from all parties and the like happened, he had to resign.

This almost certainly makes Màxim Huerta the shortest lived minister in Spanish history XD
Logged
Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
MAINEiac4434
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,333
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1852 on: June 13, 2018, 06:12:51 pm »

This isn't even including the fact that the hugely popular Spanish national team goalkeeper David de Gea was accused by Sanchez of having sexually assaulted a minor (the allegations were false). Sanchez never apologized, and now De Gea is demanding one on the eve of the World Cup: http://www.the42.ie/de-gea-demands-public-apology-from-spanish-prime-minister-4065761-Jun2018/
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,209
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1853 on: June 15, 2018, 03:43:47 pm »
« Edited: June 15, 2018, 03:47:04 pm by Velasco »

The Sánchez government isn't even 2 weeks old and it already has a scandal!

Màxim Huerta, the minister of Culture and Sport (and already quite controversial for his tweets about sport) had resigned this afternoon after it was discovered that he was found guilty of tax evasion in the past and had to pay 365 000€ for it.

He initially refused to resign but after several declarations from both Sánchez about corrupt politicians, critics from all parties and the like happened, he had to resign.

This almost certainly makes Màxim Huerta the shortest lived minister in Spanish history XD

It's a good sign that Maxim Huerta resigned so quickly. He didn't tell Sánchez he had an affair with tax authotities. It's obvious that Sánchez lacked the time to verify the background of Mr Huerta, who is his friend. There has been a certain degree of improvisation in this appointment, possibly due to lack of time. Maxim Huerta was not the first choice, apparently the post was offered to others before. José Guirao, a former durector of Reina Sofía Contemporary Arts Museum, was appointed in the same day replacing Huerta. Opposite profiles: cultural manager Vs journalist, writer and celebrity.

The standard has been set high. In demanding the resignation of Mr Huerta, PP, Cs and Podemos comit themselves to act in a similar way when they are in government. That's great news; leaving aside the anazing cynicism of PP.

Logged
Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,819
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1854 on: June 16, 2018, 12:58:40 am »

Sánchez restored health care under the SNS (Sistema Nacional de Salud) to undocumented immigrants, reversing Rajoy decision that had restricted it to people legally in the country.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,008
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1855 on: June 16, 2018, 10:44:42 am »

Well, 2 news items today.

First of all, Albert Rivera wants Spain to have a 3% national threshold for general elections, basically as a "stop secessionists" measure. Of course in practice it would be ineffective as they'd simply run in a coalition like they already do in EU parliament elections. But I guess it's noteworthy.

Worth noting that the right wing coalition would have always entered parliament (in fact, CiU alone would have entered parliament several times), and the left wing coalition only sometimes.

It would actually do more harm to small national parties. So Vox and PACMA would have an even harder time getting seats. And historically 3 parties would have dropped out: UPyD (2008), CDS (1982) and FN (1979).

The 2nd news is that we now have our first declared candidate for the PP leadership election: José Ramón García Hernández, MP for Ávila and someone I didn't know until today. No idea if he'll even be allowed on the ballot but there he is.

Former minister of foreign affairs, Jose María Margallo is also collecting the required endorsements to run, but he officially hasn't declared if he will finally run or not. He has said that he wants to stop fmr. deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría at all costs though (they seem to have a very bad relation)

Anyways, Jose Ramón García is a dark horse candidate. That can be a good (a clean candidate) or a bad thing (unknown). Zapatero was also an unknown MP from Leon in 2000 so who knows.

Margallo would be a good candidate, iirc he was one of the ministers with the highest approval ratings. His only problem would be age, he is quite old at age 73.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,008
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1856 on: June 18, 2018, 02:54:27 pm »

More movement in PP's leadership election.

Pablo Casado, MP for Ávila and one of PP's young faces and one of the better known MPs has decided to run for party leader. This is slightly surprising but of the 3 candidates thus far he is probably the one with the best chance.

However, a more interesting turn comes from regional president of Galicia Alberto Núñez Feijoo, who has decided not to run! He was thus far considered the frontrunner for the leadership election. Now that he is not running, I wonder what will the effect be.
Logged
Hardline Remainer
Blairite
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,564
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1857 on: June 19, 2018, 09:02:50 am »

Without Feijoo, it looks to be a competition between Santamaria and Cospedal, which is certainly interesting.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,008
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1858 on: June 19, 2018, 09:16:30 am »

Yup, both Santamaría and Cospedal have declared today their intention to run. Assuming everyone who declared eventually gets in the ballot, this will be the most contested leadership election in history, with at least 6 candidates. Thus far the record is the 2000 PSOE leadership election, which had 4 candidates.

Also assuming that one of the frontrunners eventually wins, this will also be the first time a major party is led by a woman and barring a huge PP collapse, the best result for a woman in an election (thus far the record is Rosa Diez's 4.7% so whoever wins will beat that).

Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,209
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1859 on: June 19, 2018, 05:57:23 pm »

Pedro Sánchez intends to last until 2020

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/19/inenglish/1529394392_925595.html

Quote
Pedro Sánchez, who became prime minister of Spain after successfully leading a no-confidence vote against Mariano Rajoy, on Monday unveiled that he plans to serve out the rest of the term until June 2020.

In his first interview since his inauguration on June 2, the leader of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) said that the decision not to call early elections is based on the need to “normalize” the country’s political life (...)

"Normalization" is badly needed in Catalonia, or in the words of Justice minister Dolores Delgado there's need to "reduce the inflamation" in order to "avoid more pain".

The weakness of PSOE in Congress is well known, but the sucession crisis in PP opens a window of opportunity.

Without Feijoo, it looks to be a competition between Santamaria and Cospedal, which is certainly interesting.

I think this is going to be a contest between two women who hate each other, with Pablo Casado in the middle as a possible dark horse.

María Dolores de Cosèdal, who resigns as PP secretary general, offers "Victory, Victory and Victory" trying to inpersonate a female version of Winston Churchill.

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría vindicates her experence in government and opposition, adressing press in front of the Congress. She offers "modernity" and "integration". She says PP will be soon back in government if they prform a good opposition in Parliament.

Pablo Casado wants ro build the "common house" of the Spanish centre-right where everyone to the right of PSOE feels comfortable. Also he appeals to the !Spain of the balconies", referring to people putting Spanish flags in their balconies during the worst phase of the crisis in Catalonia.

Sáenz de Santamaría and Cospedal have tried to attract Casado to their side, unsucessfully. Casado is young and promising but jhe has two disadvantages:   

1) He took the same Master at Rey Juan Carlos University that caused the resignation of former Madrid premier Cristina Cifuentes. Cadado obtained the Master Degree surprisingly quickly and some judge is investigating.

2) He might be seen as too much right-wing, too close to former PM José María Aznar and former Madrid leader Esperanza Aguirre.

Former Foreign Affairs minister José Manuel García-Margallo and the other two candidates (Ramón García Hernández and José Luis Bayo) look like outsiders. García-Margallo has serious differences with Sáenz de Santamaría on the management of the conflict in Catalonia.

Logged
The Saint
TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,837


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1860 on: June 19, 2018, 06:05:30 pm »

Wasn’t calling for new elections part of his big promises?

That’s not a good way to start out your term (though to be honest Spain would probably have to go through at least two elections to finally get a new government considering the divided field, so this could be fine).
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,209
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1861 on: June 20, 2018, 08:26:43 am »

Wasn’t calling for new elections part of his big promises?

That’s not a good way to start out your term (though to be honest Spain would probably have to go through at least two elections to finally get a new government considering the divided field, so this could be fine).

The point is that only Cs is interested in calling new elections. Neither PSOE nor the parties supporting the no-confidence motion want. Neither wants the PP, absorbed in its succession crisis and with corruption trials pending resolution. Moreover, when the high-profile appointments to the cabinet were revealed it became evident that Pedro Sánchez wanted to last. Someone said the new government was designed for the next 5 years, because Pedro Sánchez hopes to win the next election.

Regarding the resignation of Maxim Huerta, who was the Culture and Sports minister for six days,  possibly it had a collateral impact in the PP leadership contest. Galicia premier Alberto Núñez Feijoó was the frontrunner, but shockingly he withdrew from the race. Possibly the reasons behind his decision are some old photographs of him with narco Marcial Dorado relaxing on a yacht deck.

https://www.eldiario.es/galicia/Feijoo-recordarle-Marcial-Dorado-difamar_0_554345121.html

https://www.elespanol.com/reportajes/20180615/marcial-dorado-espada-amenaza-feijoo-limpiando-carcel/315219546_0.html

 The images were released by El País a couple of years ago; despite some conmotion they didn't end Feijoó's career. However, the resignation of Maxim Huerta for has set a new standard. If Maxim Huerta had to resign due to his already solved problems with tax authorities, try to imagine what would happen when Núñez Feijoó is proclaimed PP leader and those photographs surface again in the media. Maybe something is changing for good in Spanish politics.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,847


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1862 on: June 20, 2018, 09:53:31 am »

Nobody want new elections, but if push comes to shove, I suspect most of the former government would choose them over backing a PSOE budget or high profile proposal. So while Sanchez is setting himself up for a full term, I suspect it is just posturing to make the PSOE look like "the party of stability" and the incumbent when elections eventually come.
Logged
Hardline Remainer
Blairite
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,564
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1863 on: June 21, 2018, 03:18:46 pm »

Also he appeals to the !Spain of the balconies", referring to people putting Spanish flags in their balconies during the worst phase of the crisis in Catalonia.
Can confirm this is still a thing, and I guess this is a real driver of votes. Sort of interesting that this is a political base.
Logged
Republican Left
Left Wing Republican
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 82


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1864 on: June 25, 2018, 08:51:28 pm »

What do you think about the Cs or Ciudades, do you think they're be able to be major gains? Additionally can the PP recover from this? In respect to PM Sanchez, is it his to loses?
Logged
Hardline Remainer
Blairite
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,564
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1865 on: June 26, 2018, 08:24:29 am »

I think the Cs performance depends on whether Santamaria or Cospedal wins the leadership election, with the former likely to take many of their votes.
Logged
Republican Left
Left Wing Republican
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 82


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1866 on: June 26, 2018, 08:34:17 am »

By the way, how's the quest to take away gun rights? Any thoughts on London's knife control? Wink
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,209
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1867 on: June 28, 2018, 04:51:25 am »
« Edited: June 28, 2018, 07:11:00 am by Velasco »

I think the Cs performance depends on whether Santamaria or Cospedal wins the leadership election, with the former likely to take many of their votes.

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría is possibly the right choice for PP. Among the three top candidates in the leadership contest, Santamaría would be the most competitive candidate in a general election. The former Deputy PM was the member of the Rajoy government with the best approval rates beating María Dolores de Cospedal in every age group and ideological niche (centre-right to far-right), according to the last CIS survey. Also, she is the most popular among those who left PP for Cs. Given that she is perceived as more "liberal" and with a greater degree of "openness" than Cospedal, she's the best choice to regain voters from Cs.

However, I don't think that Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría is the favourite in this race. The outcome of this leadership election is fairly unpredictable, especially when PP lacks of democratic traditions and never held this kind of elections before. As former PP secretary general, Cospedal has a better knowledge of the party and its structures. Apparently the regions of Madrid, Castilla-La Mancha and Catalonia would go fr Cospedal. Santamaría has a base of support in regions like Andalusia, Castilla y León or the Basque Country (and maybe Valencia).

Galicia is a big question because premier Alberto Núñez Feijoó (previously the big favourite) is not endorsing anyone in the first round, in which party members registered to vote will choose between the six candidates and elect the delegates for the party convention. In case that no candidate gets a majority in the first round, the two top candidates will pass to the second round in which only delegates are eligible to vote. Then Feijoó will say which candidate supports and will ask Galician delegates to vote as a block. I've read that he would never support Santamaría.

On the other hand, Pablo Casado must be taken into account. Casado is a young conservative that appeals to generational replacement and party0s unity, "as well as Spanish nationalism or "family values". He has the support of much of the PP's "New Generations" (youth branch) and the supporters of José María Aznar and Esperanza Aguirre. In case that Casado qualifies as one of the two top candidates for the second round, his victory is very likely. Delegates supporting Sntamaría or Cospedal would vote for him and against the other woman.

Casado and others have stated concern at the low numbers of members registered to vote. PP has nominally more than 800k members, but this figure is unreal. Membership census hasn't been updated in a long time; possibly there are dead people and members who left in the census roll. Only 66k (less tan 8%) have registered and are eligible to vote. Turnout will be lower than that figure. It's a big failure for the PP.

EDIT: Journalist Eruardo Inda (scum, sensationalist hack) says that according to some internal polling Pablo Casado is ahead, followers by Cospedal and Santamaria. Maybe Inda is intoxicating but the man has good contacts in the PP and in the underworld. Aside from that, my insight (maybe incorrect or baseless) is that Casado could win this.

Current opinion polling is placing PSOE in first place, with the exception of the Sociométrica poll released by El Español (editor Pedro J Ramírez likes Rivera)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

Logged
The Saint
TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,837


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1868 on: June 28, 2018, 07:30:54 am »

Is the PNV/EAJ pro-Basque independence or more of a "Basque interests" party?
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,008
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1869 on: June 28, 2018, 09:23:15 am »
« Edited: June 28, 2018, 09:28:38 am by tack50 »

Is the PNV/EAJ pro-Basque independence or more of a "Basque interests" party?

Simultaneously both and neither at the same time. A big and somewhat hilarious example is that the same day they signed the budget deal with Rajoy's government in Madrid, they also signed a declaration in favour of the right to decide with Bildu back in the Basque Country.

It really depends. I think their position on independence is something like "would be nice but now is not the time". They are clearly in favour of the right to decide (ie a referendum) though I don't think they would actively push for independence unless they felt threatened or something.

It also depens on who is in charge of PNV. Right now Urkullu is a moderate, but former leader Ibarretxe was a lot more pro-independence, actively pushing for the Basque Country to become a "free associated state". That was defeated in the Spanish Congress by a landslide margin: 29-313, with only Basque/Catalan/Galician nationalists voting in favour; IU splitting between abstaining and no; and everyone else voting no.

In fact up until the Catalan conflict, the Ibarretxe plan was the strongest pro-independence challenge in Spain, though it went nowhere near as far (Ibarretxe never dared to disobey court orders like Mas and Puigdemont for example)
Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,188
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1870 on: June 28, 2018, 09:42:12 am »

Casado and others have stated concern at the low numbers of members registered to vote. PP has nominally more than 800k members, but this figure is unreal. Membership census hasn't been updated in a long time; possibly there are dead people and members who left in the census roll. Only 66k (less tan 8%) have registered and are eligible to vote. Turnout will be lower than that figure. It's a big failure for the PP.

Yikes!! Shocked That's real, real bad. It becomes worse if you compare with the PP's sister party in Portugal, the PSD. In this year leadership elections, 70,000 PSD members, out of 120,000 active members, were registered to vote, although only 43,000 voted.
Logged
Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1871 on: June 28, 2018, 10:03:27 am »

Casado and others have stated concern at the low numbers of members registered to vote. PP has nominally more than 800k members, but this figure is unreal. Membership census hasn't been updated in a long time; possibly there are dead people and members who left in the census roll. Only 66k (less tan 8%) have registered and are eligible to vote. Turnout will be lower than that figure. It's a big failure for the PP.

Oh my, that's hideous. I compared this to the 2017 NDP leadership election for a perspective, and Canada's third largest party had nearly the exact same number of VOTERS (and that's with 52% turnout, the NDP has over 124k members) as Spain's largest party.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,847


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1872 on: June 28, 2018, 10:06:53 am »

Sounds like the PP election is going to effectively be like a US style Caucus or Labour's leadership election, where only the most committed and partisan are voting members. Never a good recipe for picking a nationally electable candidate.
Logged
Tintrlvr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,300
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1873 on: June 28, 2018, 10:21:16 am »

Is the PNV/EAJ pro-Basque independence or more of a "Basque interests" party?

Simultaneously both and neither at the same time. A big and somewhat hilarious example is that the same day they signed the budget deal with Rajoy's government in Madrid, they also signed a declaration in favour of the right to decide with Bildu back in the Basque Country.

It really depends. I think their position on independence is something like "would be nice but now is not the time". They are clearly in favour of the right to decide (ie a referendum) though I don't think they would actively push for independence unless they felt threatened or something.

It also depens on who is in charge of PNV. Right now Urkullu is a moderate, but former leader Ibarretxe was a lot more pro-independence, actively pushing for the Basque Country to become a "free associated state". That was defeated in the Spanish Congress by a landslide margin: 29-313, with only Basque/Catalan/Galician nationalists voting in favour; IU splitting between abstaining and no; and everyone else voting no.

In fact up until the Catalan conflict, the Ibarretxe plan was the strongest pro-independence challenge in Spain, though it went nowhere near as far (Ibarretxe never dared to disobey court orders like Mas and Puigdemont for example)

In other words, they're CDC before it became a pro-independence party.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,209
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1874 on: June 28, 2018, 05:28:24 pm »
« Edited: June 28, 2018, 06:33:42 pm by Velasco »

Yikes!! Shocked That's real, real bad. It becomes worse if you compare with the PP's sister party in Portugal, the PSD. In this year leadership elections, 70,000 PSD members, out of 120,000 active members, were registered to vote, although only 43,000 voted.

Oh my, that's hideous. I compared this to the 2017 NDP leadership election for a perspective, and Canada's third largest party had nearly the exact same number of VOTERS (and that's with 52% turnout, the NDP has over 124k members) as Spain's largest party.

Sometimes comparisons are odious (I mean the ccomparisons you make are terrible for the PP). The 870k membership figure is unreal. Some PP officials claim that figure includes activists and mere supporters, but possibly it also includes dead people or people who joined one day and dissapeared. The main reason for not updting the membership census is that regions send delegaes to the party convention according to the size of their membership (75%) and election results (25%).

Even with a more realistic census, this 66k figure is really poor. More comparisons:

2018 PP leadership contest: 66384 enrolled to vote out of 869535 members (7.6%)

2017 PSOE leadership contest:  149051 out of 187715 turned out to vote (79.8%)

2017 Podemos convention (Vistalegre II): 155275 members voted online (34.5%)

Img
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 70 71 72 73 74 [75] 76 77 78 79 80 ... 93 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC