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tack50
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« Reply #1875 on: June 29, 2018, 01:00:04 pm »

About the PP leadership election, I'd say taht only 66k is an utter failure on PP's part. Remember PP claimed an 850k membership.

But even if we forget about the 850k figure, 66k is extremely small. I wouldn't consider Podemos' leadership election as comparable since joining Podemos is free and over the internet while for any of the other parties you have to pay.

But remember, PP's membership fee is only 20€ a year. Compare that to PSOE's 60€ a year or Cs' 120 € a year. So you'd expect PP's membership to be certainly larger than PSOE and especially Cs. And yet it's only 1/3 of PSOE's membership and only around 3 times that of Cs.

In fact, to get an idea, around 23k people are elected PP politicians (local councillors, MPs, etc). Which means that about 1 in 3 voters will be actual politicians.

I don't think that means a more extreme politician though. Remember that the PSOE primaries had extremely high turnout and they still elected the more "extreme" candidate (Sánchez) not the establishment one (Díaz).

In fact since 1/3 will be elected politicians, I guess that will give a small boost to establishment candidates (Santamaría, probably Cospedal) and might make things harder for the ones relying in the party base (Casado).
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« Reply #1876 on: June 29, 2018, 01:59:07 pm »

What for would one have party membership if he is not some sort of elected politician, even such as some small town mayor or county leader?
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tack50
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« Reply #1877 on: June 29, 2018, 02:46:41 pm »

What for would one have party membership if he is not some sort of elected politician, even such as some small town mayor or county leader?

Well, plenty of reasons. You could be someone who isn't an elected politician but wants to become one in the future. Or you could simply be a party hack and want to support your party by paying the membership dues and taking part in its internal politics.
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tack50
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« Reply #1878 on: July 04, 2018, 09:07:22 am »

While polling for leadership elections is almost always extremely inaccurate, and Okdiario is a worthless pamphlet, they are the only ones who have even tried to poll the PP leadership election so here's their final poll (election is due for tomorrow). Worth noting that this a poll of PP councillors and local elected officials which are likely to votee (then again of the 1200 calls only 243 replied).

Img


Which means Cospedal in the lead and Casado and Santamaría battling for 2nd, though it's between the margin of error for all 3. Margallo well behind.

The only other poll (this time of PP voters, so including a lot of people who won't vote in the leadership election):

Santamaría: 45,2%
Casado: 22.2%
Cospedal: 11.9%
Margallo: 6.4%
José R. Gª Hernández: 1.2%
Elio Cabanes: 0.1%

I guess one of the 3 frontrunners will be eliminated by the PP base, with the other 2 battling in the PP congress.

My own prediction is that Casado will be well ahead, with Santamaría and Cospedal battling for 2nd with Santamaría narrowly getting in 2nd place. In the PP congress all bets are off, though the larger the Casado victory, the easier it will be for him to be elected.
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« Reply #1879 on: July 04, 2018, 11:57:39 am »
« Edited: July 04, 2018, 12:01:30 pm by Mike88 »

I read that Casado is involved in a weird controversy around his master degree, that he didn't show up to classes and that it was mandatory. It seems he was tutored by the same teacher, if i'm correct, that helped Cifuentes to get her master degree.

Why would the PP members vote for someone who can be a liability in the near future? It doesn't make sense. At least Cospedal and Santamaría don't have this kind, or other legal, problems, i assume, of course.
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« Reply #1880 on: July 04, 2018, 01:13:30 pm »

The endorsement of regional and provincial leadersis (more or less) evenly distributed between Santamaría and Cospedal, while Casado relies in the grassroots. Summary:

María Dolores de Cospedal has been the secretary general of the party and is the only candidate who is a regional leader (Castilla-La Mancha). She is endorsed by the regional leaders of Extremadura and Asturias, as well by the Madrid premier Ángel Garrido. Six provincial leaders endorse her publicly (4 from her region plus Almería and Cáceres). According to partisan sources, she has good chances in Zaragoza and Ceuta, while Jaén and Córdoba would be contested between her and Santamaría.

Galicia leader Alberto Núñez Feijoó has remained silent, but he could tip the balance in favour of Cospedal for the second round. Especially if one of the two candidates is Santamaría. 

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría has been endorsed by the regional leader of Andalusia. The support of former ministers Alfonso Alonso and Ïñigo de la Serna could give her a base of support in the Basque Country and Cantabria. Also, she is endorsed by 10 provincial leaders (Álava, Alicante, Cádiz, Castellón, Girona, Huelva, Gipuzkoa, Málaga, Sevilla and Valencia). Partisan sources told to El País that she is the likely winner in most of Castilla y León provinces. According to the same sources, she could win Murcia, the Canaries and Melilla.

Pablo Casado has the endorsement of three provincial leaders in Catalonia (Barcelona, Tarragona and Lleida). The faction loyal to Esperanxa Aguirre in Madrid backs him, as well as nostalgics for Aznar*, so Casado has chances of winning Madrid. The Balearic Islands would be in dispute between him and Santamaría. Given his little support in the territorial organizations, his chances rely in obtaining a big support among grassroots and in the 4,800 members of the PP Youth registered to vote.

*Aznar claims that PP must undertake a refounding. He didn't endorse anyone in public, but it's clear that Casado is his preferred candidate. Former PM stated that he didn't register to vote.

I read that Casado is involved in a weird controversy around his master degree, that he didn't show up to classes and that it was mandatory. It seems he was tutored by the same teacher, if i'm correct, that helped Cifuentes to get her master degree.

Why would the PP members vote for someone who can be a liability in the near future? It doesn't make sense. At least Cospedal and Santamaría don't have this kind, or other legal, problems, i assume, of course.

Indeed, the issue f the master degree can be a burden. If PP voters were intelligent , they'd vote massively for Santamaría. She's the more capable and competitive, despite her mistakes and failures as Deputy PM. I think Cospedal would be eaten by Rivera (the Cs leader) and Casado isn't convincing (the master, his proximity to Aznar and Aguirre...)

However, who said that party grassroots are clever?
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Mike88
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« Reply #1881 on: July 05, 2018, 01:13:15 pm »

I read that Casado is involved in a weird controversy around his master degree, that he didn't show up to classes and that it was mandatory. It seems he was tutored by the same teacher, if i'm correct, that helped Cifuentes to get her master degree.

Why would the PP members vote for someone who can be a liability in the near future? It doesn't make sense. At least Cospedal and Santamaría don't have this kind, or other legal, problems, i assume, of course.

Indeed, the issue f the master degree can be a burden. If PP voters were intelligent , they'd vote massively for Santamaría. She's the more capable and competitive, despite her mistakes and failures as Deputy PM. I think Cospedal would be eaten by Rivera (the Cs leader) and Casado isn't convincing (the master, his proximity to Aznar and Aguirre...)

However, who said that party grassroots are clever?

When a party is a "party of power", grassroots have to be cleaver enough to elect the most electable candidate, because the party isn't speaking just to itself, it is also speaking to the country and potential swing voters.

Now, it seems that turnout could be above 70%. Until 6:00, 65.8% of PP members cast a ballot. I've read on Electomania that Cospedal may be leading, but this could also be a way to shore up the Santamaría potential voters.
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« Reply #1882 on: July 05, 2018, 02:21:25 pm »

Booths closed in mainland Spain. Maybe we'll have  some provisional results in acouple of hours.

Apparently Casado id winning in Madrid by a landslide. Santamaría would be winning in Andalusia, followed by Casado. At least, that's what some people is saying in La Sexta.
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tack50
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« Reply #1883 on: July 05, 2018, 02:45:17 pm »

According to ABC, with 44% of the vote in:

Casado: 11176
Santamaria: 8822
Cospedal: 7290

They also showed the results for the other 3, but without telling who is who. In any case, their results are 348, 355 and 72 votes. Terrible result for Margallo, especially if Joserra (who is completely unknown actually beats him or is anywhere close)
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« Reply #1884 on: July 05, 2018, 03:15:02 pm »
« Edited: July 05, 2018, 03:20:41 pm by Mike88 »

42,000 votes counted:

15,971 39.9% Casado
13,604 34.0% Santamaría
10,460 26.4% Cospedal
     552   1.4% Margallo

It seems that Andalucia and Castilla La Mancha are still out. This could be good news for Santamaría and Cospedal.

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tack50
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« Reply #1885 on: July 05, 2018, 04:16:24 pm »

Santamaria finally wins

Santamaria: 21500
Casado: 19900
Cospedal: 15000
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Mike88
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« Reply #1886 on: July 05, 2018, 04:53:03 pm »
« Edited: July 05, 2018, 05:01:57 pm by Mike88 »

Total final results:

21,513 37.0% Santamaría
19,967 34.4% Casado
15,090 26.0% Cospedal
     680   1.2% Margallo
     668   1.2% Hernandéz
     185   0.3% Cabanes
     202   0.4% Blank/Invalid ballots            

58,305 87.4% Turnout

Now, how will the runoff play out in the congress? Will Cospedal throw her support to Casado in order to stop Santamaría, or will there be a consensus to support the most voted candidate in the 1st round?
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« Reply #1887 on: July 06, 2018, 05:08:03 am »

Andalusia hitted the balance in favour of Santamaría. Results by region:

Img

Now, how will the runoff play out in the congress? Will Cospedal throw her support to Casado in order to stop Santamaría, or will there be a consensus to support the most voted candidate in the 1st round?

Given that Cospedal and Santamaría hate each other and the margin is narrow, it's very likely that Casado takes the battle. Tonight he called Cospedal supporters to join his ranks. Obviously he has a good chance of winning the second round at the party convention, with the support of delegates loyal to Cospedal.  However, Santamaría supporters will argue that her candidate is the one entitled to be the next PP leder. This outcome is potentially harmful for the party's unity. In that regard, it would have been better that Casado came first. This mess proves that the voting system is poorly designed. It could have been averted with the membership voting in the two rounds. It happens that PP never held democratic elections before.
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« Reply #1888 on: July 06, 2018, 07:35:23 am »

I am not sure if I should ask this question because somehow I have feeling that I have already asked that question but:


How UPyD is currently doing? Are they relevant anywhere?
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The Saint
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« Reply #1889 on: July 06, 2018, 02:32:56 pm »

According to Politico’s article, Casado seems to be the more “liberal” one. Is this true?
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tack50
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« Reply #1890 on: July 06, 2018, 03:51:43 pm »

I am not sure if I should ask this question because somehow I have feeling that I have already asked that question but:


How UPyD is currently doing? Are they relevant anywhere?

I don't think anyone has asked about UPyD reciently so I guess it's a good question.

Apparently after the 2015 election (when they lost all seats and got 0.8% of the vote) their leader Andrés Herzog resigned and was replaced by MP in the Basque Country's regional assembly Gorka Maneiro. They also debated whether the party should close down for good but apparently the dissolution proposal was rejected.

In any case, Maneiro performed even worse than Herzog, getting only 0.21% of the vote; coming even behind "Zero Cuts: The greens", a very fringe party, and slightly ahead of Vox.

Maneiro was replaced now by Cristiano Brown, city councillor in the town of Las Rozas (Madrid). Interestingly, Brown is actually an inmigrant from Brasil who came to Spain when he was 9 years old.

So yes, UPyD still exists. However, I'd say their future will be very similar to that of CDS back in the 90s. The party loses all its seats after the party founder (Adolfo Suarez /Rosa Diez) resigns after an abysmal local election (1991/2015); however the party rejects dissolution and stays in zombie form for 15 years.

I seriously doubt UPyD will ever be relevant again, except maybe at the local level. They have a very, very slim chance of holding 1 MEP if Maite Pagazaurtundua (the only of the 4 MEPs who still belongs to UPyD and isn't an independent) somehow manages to hold her seat but I don't think that's likely. If UPyD somehow managed to hold that 1 MEP then maybe the party could be revived but it's a small chance.

According to Politico’s article, Casado seems to be the more “liberal” one. Is this true?

Well, in the European sense yes. Ie he wants tax cuts and the like. He apparently wants to cut income tax (having a top bracket below 40%) and corporate tax. Liberal in this sense basically means economic liberal, wanting low taxes, cuts and privatization.

While the PP primaries have been extremely light on policy, I guess the main divide is that Santamaría is the more "technocratic" and moderate candidate and closer to Rajoy, while Casado is the more "ideological" candidate, much closer to the ideas of Aznar.
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« Reply #1891 on: July 06, 2018, 04:49:59 pm »
« Edited: July 06, 2018, 04:54:09 pm by Mike88 »

Now, how will the runoff play out in the congress? Will Cospedal throw her support to Casado in order to stop Santamaría, or will there be a consensus to support the most voted candidate in the 1st round?

Given that Cospedal and Santamaría hate each other and the margin is narrow, it's very likely that Casado takes the battle. Tonight he called Cospedal supporters to join his ranks. Obviously he has a good chance of winning the second round at the party convention, with the support of delegates loyal to Cospedal.  However, Santamaría supporters will argue that her candidate is the one entitled to be the next PP leder. This outcome is potentially harmful for the party's unity. In that regard, it would have been better that Casado came first. This mess proves that the voting system is poorly designed. It could have been averted with the membership voting in the two rounds. It happens that PP never held democratic elections before.
You're right that whoever made this election system up should get an Oscar for "Most stupid picture", but that doesn't explain the stupidity of Calado and Cospedal, in view. These people were just furious, a few weeks ago, that the second party in Parliament was now government and now they want to join forces to overthrow the most voted candidate in their party's primaries. See the contradiction here? Plus, Calado is now on the spotlight. I wouldn't be surprised that in the next few days, some new development about his master degree is published.
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« Reply #1892 on: July 07, 2018, 06:54:04 am »

It seems that some Cospedal supporters are against a Casado/Cospedal alliance to overthrow Santamaría: Supporters of Cospedal ask that Casado be integrated into a unique candidacy.

Also, Casado's degree controversy is already back: "Pablo, you have to fix the master."
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Mike88
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« Reply #1893 on: July 07, 2018, 11:36:01 am »

Map of elected delegates, or "compromisarios", for the PP congress:

Img


Santamaría has 1,196 compromisarios (44%)
Cospedal has 850 (31%)
Calado has 672 (25%)

Don't know why Cospedal has more compromisarios than Calado, because she polled third in the primaries, but according to these numbers, Santamaría only needs 164 more to be elected leader.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1894 on: July 07, 2018, 02:54:48 pm »

The number of delegates supporting Casado, Cospedal or Santamaria is not necessarily correlated with their vote on past Thursday. Source?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1895 on: July 07, 2018, 02:59:04 pm »

By the way, the incompetent who designed the voting system in two rounds is Fernando Martínez Maillo

https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_Martínez_Maíllo
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Mike88
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« Reply #1896 on: July 08, 2018, 07:24:12 am »

The number of delegates supporting Casado, Cospedal or Santamaria is not necessarily correlated with their vote on past Thursday. Source?


I found these numbers here: http://electomania.es/comppromisarios/

It's apparently an El Mundo analysis/calculation of the primary election results. It seems that, according to this calculation, that it is "Winner Takes All" by provinces.
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« Reply #1897 on: July 10, 2018, 04:01:38 am »

Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez and Catalan remier Quim Torra met yesrterday at La Moncloa, rhe seat of Spanish government in Madrid. The meeting was aimed to ease long running tensions between central and regional administrations, as well as re-open previously suspended billateral discussions. The most visible result of the meeting is that they agreed to keep talking. "Normalization" of the institutional relationship and "thaw" are the key words. Predictably the two disagreed on the issue of Catalan self-determination, which Torra demands and Sánchez maintains that it'd not allowed under the Spanish constitution. However Deputy PM Carmen Calvo said at a press conference after the meeting that it's possible to move forward on other items: “Torra makes statements on a right to self-determination that does not exist as a right in any European constitution. We need to talk about Catalonia’s autonomy and about matters that are stuck in the Constitutional Court. We are ready to lift the veto on a few laws on energy, healthcare and poverty that are part of the policies of the new government of Spain.”

Sánchez: “a political crisis requires a political solution. This meeting is a constructive starting point to normalize relations.”

Torra: “the meeting has been long, honest and work-based, and we have given our visions for Catalonia. There’s been a mutual acknowledgement of what we each represent. Sánchez has admitted that this is a political problem that requires political solutions. And we’ve talked about everything.”

This is the first face-to-face conversation between a Spanish PM and a Catalan premier since 2012, when Mariano Rajoy and Artur Mas met. In that meeting Mas demanded Rajoy a reform in the financing system of Catalonia to make it as similar as possible to the Basque fiscal reime. Spanish PM refused arguing that it wasn't the right time to discuss an improvement of regional financing, because Spain was in the midst of a terrible economic crisis and on the verge of a bailout. Since then, Mas turned to be openly pro-independence and a new phase began.  That was the starting point of the procès, the Catalan drive to independence.

https://www.politico.eu/article/spanish-pm-and-catalan-leader-agree-to-re-open-bilateral-talks/
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« Reply #1898 on: July 10, 2018, 02:38:07 pm »

Andalusia premier Susana Díaz could move next year's election forward this Autumn.

There are two reasons:

1) The new government led by Pedro Sánchez is honeymooning with public opinion, after the success of the no-confidence motion and the beginning of a new political cycle. Susana Díaz would want to take advantage of the popularity of her main rival in the PSOE while there's a tail wind that favours her interests.

2) The court ruling of the ERE case -a corruption scandal that affects former officials of the regional government- is expected to March 2019, the same month regional elections are scheduled. Andalusian socialists fear a shattering ruling that portrays decades of excesses and self-indulgency. The PSOE has been governing without interruptions since 1980.

Opposition parties are already preparing for a snap election. By the moment no rival to challenge Susana Díaz has been officially appointed, although it's likely the 2014 election candidates repeat. PP leader in Andalusia José Manuel Moreno Bonilla was recently reelected. However, he has to be confirmed candidate by the new PP leadership after the PP national convention on July 20 and 21. Moreno Bonilla is a staunch supporter of Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and the vote of Andalusians was key for the momentary advantage of the former Deputy PM in the first round of the leadership contest. 

Cs decided to move forward its process to select candidates. Juan Marín, candidate in the 2014 election, is the favourite. According to ABC Sevilla the CS Executive Committee agreed that two independents top the list in Huelva and Jaén provinces.

Podemos, IU, Equo and smaller organizations are in the process of forming a joint list provisionally called Ahora Andalucía (Now Andalusia). The formation will be complex, as usual in these forces of the alternative left. Every party and organization will hold primaries and then they'll have to find a way to arrange the common list. Likely the candidate will be the Podemos leader in Andalusia Teresa Rodríguez. who belongs to the anti-capitalist faction.

A poll released a week ago places PSOE ahead followed by Cs, PP and Podemos-IU

SW Demoscopia

PSOE 38.1% (+2.7%) 47 (=) seats
Cs 21.5% (+12.3%) 23 (+14) seats
PP 19.8% (-7%) 23 (-10) seats
Podemos+IU 14.8% (-6.9%) 16 (-4) seats

https://www.electograph.com/2018/07/andalucia-swdemoscopia-junio18.html
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« Reply #1899 on: July 12, 2018, 05:31:15 am »
« Edited: July 12, 2018, 08:43:35 am by Velasco »

Img


Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and Pablo Casado sat together at a "summer dinner party" organized by the PP parliamentary group on Tuesday night. Later the party organization provided pictures of them smiling hugely. However, the truce ended after the dinner. In the following day Casado warned against"gender ideology" and threw out the following question: "is Santamaría so worthless that people votes her only for being a woman?". Santamaría replied: "dividing between ladies in an attempt to find a space is something that I don't like". She meant that Casado tries to take advantage of her rivalry with Cospedal. The former Deputy PM clains that a majority of the PP membership wants a woman leading, because she and Cospedal got 63% of the vote together. Casado rated Santamaría's statements as an "offence gainst women", adding that PP is "committed to talent, regardless of gender". Casado says he can't believe that someone accuses him of male chauvinism, even though he has stated that feminism is a "collectivist movement" that "must be combated by the centre-right" because "liberals" are "committed to individuals and not collectives".

In related news, Pablo Casado and premier Alberto Núñez Feijoó attended together a meeting of party delegates in Galicia. Casado didn't get the explicit endorsement of Feijoó, but receved some "gestures of affection" in exchange. The Galician premier wants to keep a neutral appearance. It won't be surprising that a vast majority of delegates from Galicia votes for Casado, except the delegates from the Ourense province which boss is Feijoo's only rival in the region.

Celeste-Tell poll for eldiario.es

PSOE 27.1% 106-109 seats
PP 24.2%  97-99 seats
Cs 20.6% 62-64 seats
UP 17.7% 51-56 seats
Others 10.4% 26-27 seats
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