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Velasco
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« Reply #1900 on: July 12, 2018, 05:31:15 am »
« edited: July 12, 2018, 08:43:35 am by Velasco »

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Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and Pablo Casado sat together at a "summer dinner party" organized by the PP parliamentary group on Tuesday night. Later the party organization provided pictures of them smiling hugely. However, the truce ended after the dinner. In the following day Casado warned against"gender ideology" and threw out the following question: "is Santamaría so worthless that people votes her only for being a woman?". Santamaría replied: "dividing between ladies in an attempt to find a space is something that I don't like". She meant that Casado tries to take advantage of her rivalry with Cospedal. The former Deputy PM clains that a majority of the PP membership wants a woman leading, because she and Cospedal got 63% of the vote together. Casado rated Santamaría's statements as an "offence gainst women", adding that PP is "committed to talent, regardless of gender". Casado says he can't believe that someone accuses him of male chauvinism, even though he has stated that feminism is a "collectivist movement" that "must be combated by the centre-right" because "liberals" are "committed to individuals and not collectives".

In related news, Pablo Casado and premier Alberto Núñez Feijoó attended together a meeting of party delegates in Galicia. Casado didn't get the explicit endorsement of Feijoó, but receved some "gestures of affection" in exchange. The Galician premier wants to keep a neutral appearance. It won't be surprising that a vast majority of delegates from Galicia votes for Casado, except the delegates from the Ourense province which boss is Feijoo's only rival in the region.

Celeste-Tell poll for eldiario.es

PSOE 27.1% 106-109 seats
PP 24.2%  97-99 seats
Cs 20.6% 62-64 seats
UP 17.7% 51-56 seats
Others 10.4% 26-27 seats
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tack50
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« Reply #1901 on: July 13, 2018, 07:23:58 am »

The german regional court has rejected sending Puigdemont under rebellion, they only allow sending him under public fund misuse charges. The Spanish courts have rejected extradition under those conditions. Llarena's only exit would be to appeal to European courts. In any case, it seems Puigdemont is safe and won't go to jail.

Also, 2 more polls. One of them actually includes results both with Casado and Soraya as PP leaders, confirming what we already knew (Casado makes Vox go lower)

Top position

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Simple Lógica

PSOE: 27,2%
Cs: 26,0%
PP: 18.7%
UP: 17,3%
Others: 10,8%
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Velasco
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« Reply #1902 on: July 13, 2018, 08:16:09 am »

The decision of the German court was predictable. The arguments of Llarena are unconvincing. Neither Puigdemont nor the Catalan politicians jailed in Spain can be charged with rebellion because what they did is illegal, but it wasn't an attempt to overthrow government by violent means.

Does any other pollster apart from Sociometrica and Simple Lógica predict results for the Vox party?  It's clear that Casado has more appeal with right-wing and far-right voters, those scoring 7-8 and 9-10 in the CIS ideological scale. However, Santamaría should have a better appeal with centre-right voters (5-6) and the battleground for mainstream parties is always on the centre. I'd be surprised if a fringe party with no clear leadership like Vox makes substantial progress, although nothing is impossible. Maybe Casado will have to tone down some of his right-wing stances in case he wins the leadership contest. I think the undercover support of Feijoó and Cospedal makes him the favourite.
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« Reply #1903 on: July 13, 2018, 09:21:52 am »

In the Top Position polls, did they release figures for PDeCAT, PNV, and EH Bildu?
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tack50
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« Reply #1904 on: July 13, 2018, 10:29:55 am »

The decision of the German court was predictable. The arguments of Llarena are unconvincing. Neither Puigdemont nor the Catalan politicians jailed in Spain can be charged with rebellion because what they did is illegal, but it wasn't an attempt to overthrow government by violent means.

Does any other pollster apart from Sociometrica and Simple Lógica predict results for the Vox party?  It's clear that Casado has more appeal with right-wing and far-right voters, those scoring 7-8 and 9-10 in the CIS ideological scale. However, Santamaría should have a better appeal with centre-right voters (5-6) and the battleground for mainstream parties is always on the centre. I'd be surprised if a fringe party with no clear leadership like Vox makes substantial progress, although nothing is impossible. Maybe Casado will have to tone down some of his right-wing stances in case he wins the leadership contest. I think the undercover support of Feijoó and Cospedal makes him the favourite.


Yes, the rebellion charges make no sense whatsoever. There was 100% no violence (or at least no more violence than say, in your usual general strike). The sedition charges would make more sense to me (and even then I'm unsure if those would be accurate but certainly more than rebellion).

In fact, I'd say there's a non negligible (but very small) chance of Junqueras and the rest actually being declared innocent, at least of the rebellion charges (probably not of public fund misuse though).

Also, I wonder if they will eventually be pardoned (whether by Sánchez or another future PM). Barrionuevo (GAL) was pardoned by Aznar and Armada (23F coup) was pardoned by González so following the "controversial pardons" precedent, in theory the next PP/Cs prime minister should pardon the Catalan government. Of course that will never happen, but still a pardon wouldn't be the most controversial thing in the world.

As for Vox and pollsters, it seems that the following pollsters have shown results for Vox in the past:

JM&A (Público; technically not a poll)
Sociométrica (El Español)
Top Position
GAD3 (ABC) (no seats but 1.1% of the vote)

They've also appeared in an NC Report (La Razón) poll for Madrid regional elections (2.8%, no seats).

As for leadership, I wouldn't say Vox has bad leadership, at least not for a party of that size (just compare them to PACMA for example). They seem to have 3 somewhat high profile people: Santiago Abascal (party president), Javier Ortega-Smith (secretary general, leading Vox's accusation of the former catalan government) and probably the best known being Antonio Ortega Lara (very high profile ETA victim, was kidnapped for 532 days).

Though their ceiling is extremely low, there's no way they'll get above like 2% and 1-2 seats.
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tack50
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« Reply #1905 on: July 13, 2018, 10:36:42 am »

In the Top Position polls, did they release figures for PDeCAT, PNV, and EH Bildu?

Nope. In fact one of the weirdest things about that poll is the 1% drop in the "others" group between Soraya and Casado. I see absolutely no reason for nationalist voters to switch depending on the PP leader.

Not to mention that 9.2% or even 8.2% is slightly too high if ERC isn't there. In 2016 the "others" got roughly 7% of the vote. Maybe they are counting blank ballots there as well? Alternatively, maybe there's a PACMA surge as well?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1906 on: July 13, 2018, 11:27:59 am »
« Edited: July 14, 2018, 09:43:55 am by Velasco »




As for Vox and pollsters, it seems that the following pollsters have shown results for Vox in the past:

JM&A (Público; technically not a poll)
Sociométrica (El Español)
Top Position
GAD3 (ABC) (no seats but 1.1% of the vote)

They've also appeared in an NC Report (La Razón) poll for Madrid regional elections (2.8%, no seats).

As for leadership, I wouldn't say Vox has bad leadership, at least not for a party of that size (just compare them to PACMA for example). They seem to have 3 somewhat high profile people: Santiago Abascal (party president), Javier Ortega-Smith (secretary general, leading Vox's accusation of the former catalan government) and probably the best known being Antonio Ortega Lara (very high profile ETA victim, was kidnapped for 532 days).

Though their ceiling is extremely low, there's no way they'll get above like 2% and 1-2 seats.


Santiago Abascal lacks merits to be considered a "high profile" politician. In my opinion he is uncharismatic besides an idiot. Precedents tell us that it's possible for an idiot to become POTUS if your name is Donald Trump and you have some charisma. Possibly there are more examples of idiots and clowns with charisma in the European far-right. That's not the case of Abascal. The only well-known figure in this trio is Ortega Lara because of his terrible experience, but he lacks everything else.

The Vox candidate in the last European elections Alejo Vidal-Quadras was relatively high-profile (radical but not idiot). He was on the verge of winning a seat. Vidal-Quadras was previously a MEP elected in the PP list.

Maybe the result of that EP election indicates what is the most that Vox could win: a seat in Madrid if the party reachs the 3% threshold there. I never thought Simple Lógica is a reliable pollster, on the other hand. This "Top Position" poll looks strange and the pollster is new to me.
 
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Velasco
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« Reply #1907 on: July 14, 2018, 09:03:35 am »
« Edited: July 14, 2018, 11:46:39 am by Velasco »

Casado's rightward shift opens ideological battle in the PP that splits the party in two. He and his supporters want a "debate of ideas" and a "refoundation"" of the PP, something that Santamaría and her supporters reject arguing that it's not time to discuss a new platform but to elect a new leader. A debate between Santamaría and Casado was discarded due to "lack of consensus".

The Casado campaign has already began the ideological battle with proposals to the right of Rajoy, such as the ban of separatist parties, or going back to the 1985 abortion law* claiming that "abortion is not a right" and the current law passed in 2010 is too permissive and gives "free drink". Leaders like José María Aznar and Esperanza Aguirre have been demanding an "ideological rearm" for years, because they say that a party with no clear ideology is like a "headless chicken". Aguirre complained that, while the PP was in government, she and others warning against "ideological indefinition" were preaching in the desert. But she's no longer crying in the wilderness bacause Pablo Casado has embraced the cause. "I want to launch a national project with a discourse that is recognizable", said the candidate at the beginning of the campaign. On the primary election day Aguirre stated that she voted for Casado "with great illusion".

The campaigns of Casado and Sanatamaría have opposite styles. Casado tries to campaign in a"presidential" style with proposals for legislative changes, while the campaign of Santamaría is more focused on leadership. Supporters of Casado criticize the lack of legislative proposals in the Sanatamaría campaign, as well as her management of the conflict in Catalonia and her failed "Operation Dialogue" with the separatists. Supporters of Sanatamaría rate the critics on Catalonia made by the opposite camp as "opportunistic".

On economic policies Casado stands for "unashamed liberalism". Some of his proposals are the renegotiation of subsidies and their replacement by fiscal incentives, or a "standard tax system" with low rates and no deductions.

A sign of this rightward shift and "ideological rearm" is that María San Gil came out of retirement and attended an event of the Casado campaign, stating that with him she is recuperating enthusiasm. San Gil was the leader of PP in the Basque Country and was notorious by her hardline stance against ETA and nationalists. Casado wants to recruit José Antonio Ortega Lara, the prison officer who was kidnapped by ETA that left PP for the Vox party.

*Abortion in Spain
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Spain#Organic_Law_9/1985

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In the Organic Law 9/1985, adopted on 5 July 1985, induced abortion was legalized in three cases: serious risk to the physical or mental health of the pregnant woman , rape and malformations or defects, physical or mental, in the fetus.



  
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« Reply #1908 on: July 14, 2018, 10:40:35 am »

If Santamaria wins I expect her in the future to become prime minister. She seems to have killer instincts like Merkel
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Velasco
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« Reply #1909 on: July 15, 2018, 02:31:22 am »

New set of polls

Sigma Dos / El Mundo

PSOE 26.3%  Cs 24.2% PP 22.3% UP 16.1% ERC 3.2% PDeCAT 1.2% PNV 1.1% Others 5.6%

Invymark/ La Sexta

PSOE 26.5% PP 23.4% Cs 21.9% UP 18.1% Others 10.1%

JM&A / Público*

PSOE 26.4% Cs 23.6% PP 19.7% UP 17.5% Others 12.8%

*Estimation by Jaume Miquel & associates
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Velasco
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« Reply #1910 on: July 15, 2018, 03:18:37 am »
« Edited: July 15, 2018, 04:14:51 am by Velasco »

An anonymous video spread via social networks and whatsapp with attacks to Santamaría has provoked great anger in the candidacy of the former Deputy PM. The video features Santamaría and some of her supporters (Javier Arenas, Cristóbal Montoro, Celia Villalobos), long-term politiicians deemed unsuited for the party's renewal.  The team of Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría has submitted a formal complaint asking the PP for an investigation, as well as demanding an explanation from Casado's candidacy. "The letter sent by Sanatamaría's team deems the video as an "intolerable attack", as well as an "excercise of pollution and personal questioning".

Anonymous video targeted against Santamaría. Title: "Tell me how are you going to renew us"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkvFSmgHfro

In other news, defense lawyers for jailed Catalan separatist leaders will request their release

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/13/inenglish/1531490884_163779.html

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This move will follow a recent decision by a German court to extradite former Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont to Spain on the charge of misuse of public funds that Spanish authorities have filed against him, but not for the crime of rebellion. This means that he can only be tried on the former charge once he is back in Spain.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1911 on: July 18, 2018, 06:24:29 am »
« Edited: July 19, 2018, 10:17:56 am by Velasco »

Yesterday morning Pedro Sánchez explained his plans for government, 45 days after the no-confidence vote against Mariano Rajoy. The new PSOE government is already experiencing the hardships of its parliamentary weakness, losing a vote to renew the board of the RTVE broadcasting group. Despite the PSOE negotiated an agreement with Unidos Podemos and the PNV, as well as the support of ERC and PDeCAT, the vote failed because two deputies were absent and other two made a mistake. Also, Pedro Sánchez is facing criticism from various sides. PP and Cs accuse him with harsh rhetoric of being indebted with Catalan and Basque nationalists, while the parties supporting the fragile parliamentary majority say that he is already going back on promises. like publishing the names od f tax evaders*

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/17/inenglish/1531813054_774710.html


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In his speech, Sánchez talked about democratic renewal, social policies and Spain’s role in the world. He also announced a ban on future tax amnesties and a 15% corporate tax for large companies. The PM additionally pledged to soon transfer the remains of former dictator Francisco Franco from his current burial site at the Valley of the Fallen, outside Madrid.

“I want to announce to you that the political decision of this government is taken,” he told Congress. “We are going to exhume the remains of the dictator Franco from the Valley of the Fallen, and this – barring last-minute changes to the means that will make this possible – will take place in a very brief period of time. The wounds have been open for many years, too many, and the time has come to close them. Our democracy will have symbols that unite citizens.”

The Spanish PM addressed the situation in Catalonia, which is a priority for his administration. In a reply to ERC spokesman Joan Tardá, Sánchez said that "Catalans will have to vote". However, both disagreed on the matter to vote. Catalan separatists want a vote on independence, but Sánchez argues that's not in the Constitution and offers a reform as well as "frank and direct dialogue".

Sánchez also talked about housing, jobs and pensions in his speech, underscoring the importance of the welfare state.

*Pedro Sánchez promised that while in opposition, but now the government argues legal impediments that prevent revealing the names of tax evaders. On the other hand, the Unidos Podemos parliamentary group is requesting a commision of inquiry after some audio recordings of the "special friend" (lover) of emeritus king Juan Carlos surfaced. According to Corinna, Juan Carlos fails to distinguish the legal from the illegal. The father of the incumbent head of state is immune to legal punshment.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/16/inenglish/1531729422_476862.html

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The head of Spain’s intelligence services will speak at a closed-door hearing in Congress to explain his version of events regarding secret recordings in which a Monaco-based businesswoman allegedly claims that former Spanish King Juan Carlos used her as a front to conceal his wealth.

National Intelligence Center (CNI) chief General Félix Sanz Roldán will be asked about statements allegedly made by Corinna zu Sayn-Wittgenstein, who has been described as the former king’s “close friend,” and who said that the Spanish intelligence services were putting pressure on her.




There were new developments in the PP leadership contest. On Monday morning, María Dolores de Cospedal endorsed officially the candidate Pablo Casado. Later it was revealed that former PM Mariano Rajoy pushed unsuccessfully for an arrangement between the two candidates, in order that both merge in a single list led by Santamaría. With that move, Rajoy broke his promise to remain neutral.

In other news, Matteo Salvini declared war on Spanish NGO rescue ship

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/18/inenglish/1531901276_303984.html

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This week, Salvini has lashed out against the Spanish non-profit group Proactiva Open Arms, which recently brought a group of migrants to the port of Barcelona after Italy refused them entry. Via his Twitter account, the federal secretary of the League party asserted that Proactiva “will only see Italian ports in postcards.”


A less known fact is that Spain is outnumbering Italy in immigrant arrivals by sea. This year 18,016 people reached the Spanish coast, while 17,827 reached Italy. These changes in the migrant flows are totally unrelated with the xenophobic demagoguery of the Italian Deputy PM, who makes gains by fostering hatred and paranoid obsession on immigration.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/07/17/actualidad/1531855916_995446.html
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Velasco
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« Reply #1912 on: July 18, 2018, 08:06:39 am »

New Catalan poll released by El Periódico on Sunday. On the pro-independence side ERC and CUP make gains while Puigdrmont's JxCAT loses ground: the pro-independence majority remains unchanged. On the non-nationalist side PSC advances while Cs makes slight loses, while CatComú-Podem and PP make very slight gains or remain stable. ERC would replace Cs as the first party, both in seats and popular vote.

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Img



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The Saint
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« Reply #1913 on: July 19, 2018, 07:18:35 am »

Interesting that the pro-independence majority still would only hold the majority by a few seats.

Also, that ERC poll rise seems to be playing out in the national election, with polls showing it winning over 3% (obviously nationally, and a rise over their last 2.7%)
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« Reply #1914 on: July 19, 2018, 08:10:17 am »

Puigdemont's rebellion case is dropped by Spanish Courts.
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« Reply #1915 on: July 19, 2018, 11:07:01 am »

It's tragic that there's a majority for the left in Catalonia, but they can't enter government together cause of the separatist issue.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1916 on: July 19, 2018, 11:14:45 am »
« Edited: July 19, 2018, 01:42:31 pm by Velasco »

Puigdemont's rebellion case is dropped by Spanish Courts.

To be precise, the Supreme Court judge rejected the extradition of Puigdemont, because it's solely on charges of misuse of funds and not on charges of rebellion. He has withdrawn the European arrest warrant against Puigdemont and other separatist politicians who fled Spain. The ruling of the Schleswig-Holstein court is a rebuttal to the theory of judge Llarena, supporting there was "implicit violence" in the October 1 journey. It casts a shadow over the case of the politicians jailed in Spain on the same charges. According to Spanish law the charge of rebellion implies an attempt to overthrow the government by violent means. I find the interpretation of the Spansih judge rigorous and unfounded and, what is worse, it gives a revenge feeling. It's obvious that the Catalan separatist leaders put themselves outside the law. The judiciary should act, keeping a sense of proportion. Maybe the problem is that the environment in Madrid is too strained, with some people claiming that past events in Catalonia were an attempted coup against Spanish democracy. In my opinion the stubbornness of judge Llarena is quite incomprehensible, as well counterproductive.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/19/inenglish/1532005743_590084.html

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In a decision made public today, Llarena says that he believes the German court has undermined his powers as an investigating judge, but ruled out the possibility of taking the case to the European Court of Justice to determine whether German judges overstepped their powers.
Supreme Court Judge Pablo Llarena in April.
Supreme Court Judge Pablo Llarena in April. Europa Press

Llarena underscored the “lack of commitment” of the German court based on events that “could have “fractured the constitutional order of Spain.” He went on to say that the decision of the German judges had predicted the outcome of a court case over which they have no powers, ignoring the precepts of the European arrest warrant, the jurisprudence of the EU Court of Justice, and the European arrest warrant guidelines produced by the European Commission.

Interesting that the pro-independence majority still would only hold the majority by a few seats.

Also, that ERC poll rise seems to be playing out in the national election, with polls showing it winning over 3% (obviously nationally, and a rise over their last 2.7%)

According to the poll, the balance between pro-independence and 'constitutionalist' parties remains unchanged. There are some transfers within the two blocks, slight increase for ERC and PSC at the expense of JxcAT and Cs respectively. However, there are virtually no vote transfers between blocks. It's worth noting that most of the Cs gains in previous regional elections is at the expense of PSC, especially in Metropolitan Barcelona. Cs also made gains from PP, but the proportion of former PSC voters is higher. In the rest of Spain, Cs is growing mainly at the expense of PP.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1917 on: July 19, 2018, 11:18:31 am »

It's tragic that there's a majority for the left in Catalonia, but they can't enter government together cause of the separatist issue.

I'm in the same opinion. There is no solution in the short term.
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« Reply #1918 on: July 19, 2018, 11:20:27 am »

It's tragic that there's a majority for the left in Catalonia, but they can't enter government together cause of the separatist issue.

There isn't one. Cs+JxCat have a majority as of now (70/135 seats). Of course such a coalition is impossible but still.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1919 on: July 19, 2018, 01:57:12 pm »

It's tragic that there's a majority for the left in Catalonia, but they can't enter government together cause of the separatist issue.

There isn't one. Cs+JxCat have a majority as of now (70/135 seats). Of course such a coalition is impossible but still.

It's true. Cs+JxCAT+PP add 74 out of 135 seats. The procés has been lethal for the left, in Catalonia and in the rest of Spain. I put all my hopes in the thawing process promoted by Pedro Sánchez. Everything is fragile and provisional right now, but we could see light at the end of the tunnel. As Le Monde correspondent puts it: the problem with this government is that it has ideas, but is lacking a majority to make them real.
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« Reply #1920 on: July 19, 2018, 02:15:48 pm »

It's tragic that there's a majority for the left in Catalonia, but they can't enter government together cause of the separatist issue.

There isn't one. Cs+JxCat have a majority as of now (70/135 seats). Of course such a coalition is impossible but still.

I meant in the poll that Velasco just posted, where (by my count) ERC-PSC-CeC-CUP have a majority.
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« Reply #1921 on: July 21, 2018, 07:03:11 am »
« Edited: July 21, 2018, 07:17:51 am by tack50 »

The 19th PP party congress has ended, with the slogan "The future of Spain". And in it, Pablo Casado has won, beating Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría

https://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pablo-casado-gana-primarias-y-convierte-nuevo-presidente-pp-201807211353_noticia.html

Img


The final results have been:

Casado 1701 (57%)
Soraya 1250 (42%)
Blank 18
Spoilt 4
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« Reply #1922 on: July 21, 2018, 08:04:48 am »

Any predictions on what changes with Casado in charge - if it benefits or hurts the PSOE/C's for example?
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« Reply #1923 on: July 21, 2018, 08:15:28 am »
« Edited: July 21, 2018, 08:19:45 am by Southern Speaker The Saint »

Any predictions on what changes with Casado in charge - if it benefits or hurts the PSOE/C's for example?

If the one poll from before testing both candidates in the position of PP leader is accurate (even though there were many flaws as previously pointed out), then Casado will continue to push Cs down; I assume this is due to his very liberal economic stances and anti-Catalan-independence sentiment (apparently said today he wants Tabarnia to be a real thing). He probably won’t gain any large amount of PSOE voters (and could lose more moderate PP voters to them), but he is reducing Vox’s poll numbers, which the poll showed would have risen to its highest levels ever with Soraya Saénz de Santamaría.

Also, I might be horribly off with the comparison (posters from Spain: fix my post if necessary Tongue ) but I could see him possibly turning into a Sebastian Kurz-type figure: young, more conservative than many past leaders of his party (but relative to Spain, not Austria of course), and responsible for rejuvenating the party in the eyes of those on the center-right to right wing.
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« Reply #1924 on: July 21, 2018, 08:26:37 am »

Any predictions on what changes with Casado in charge - if it benefits or hurts the PSOE/C's for example?

If the one poll from before testing both candidates in the position of PP leader is accurate (even though there were many flaws as previously pointed out), then Casado will continue to push Cs down; I assume this is due to his very liberal economic stances and anti-Catalan-independence sentiment (apparently said today he wants Tabarnia to be a real thing). He probably won’t gain any large amount of PSOE voters (and could lose more moderate PP voters to them), but he is reducing Vox’s poll numbers, which the poll showed would have risen to its highest levels ever with Soraya Saénz de Santamaría.

Also, I might be horribly off with the comparison (posters from Spain: fix my post if necessary Tongue ) but I could see him possibly turning into a Sebastian Kurz-type figure: young, more conservative than many past leaders of his party (but relative to Spain, not Austria of course), and responsible for rejuvenating the party in the eyes of those on the center-right to right wing.

Yup, that's all quite accurate.

Now that Casado is elected, Vox has lost almost all possibilities of getting seats (of course it depends on the 2019 European elections but still it's much more unlikely than a week ago).

Cs will probably go down, most of their new voters went there because of the Catalonia issue. Maybe they'll go back to the center and get moderate PP voters (plus maybe even a few from PSOE) while the hardliners go back to PP but that seems very unlikely to me.

PSOE might go up because of polarization. And UP is probably not affected at all, other than maybe if PSOE goes up UP goes down because "useful voting".

And the Sebastian Kurz comparisons are actually very accurate IMO! The only difference is that while Kurz has to deal with a party to his right (FPÖ), Casado will have to deal with one that is to his left (Cs)
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