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The Saint
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« Reply #1925 on: July 21, 2018, 10:17:20 am »

Thank you both Smiley

Yeah, it definitely seems like Casado’s brand of conservatism is not Kurz’s, and you’re right that this doesn’t mean a rightward turn for the party whereas it could happen/is happening to the ÖVP.
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« Reply #1926 on: July 21, 2018, 12:16:17 pm »

this doesn’t mean a rightward turn for the party

The election of Pablo Casado is a rightward turn to the party.  PP delegates were faced to choose between two different options:

1) The continuity of the Rajoy's legacy represented by the former Deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, possibly the most powerful woman in Spain since Queen Isabel II ("Isabella" for English Wikipedia). It has been said before: Santamaría is a pragmatist, a technocrat, a woman with no strong ideological stances who has been always focused on power and management. In what regards pragmatism she could be cautiously compared with Angela Merkel, although both women have very different backgrounds. Anyway she's not a centrist, rather she is a "stately" candidate or a "stateswoman" if you want (state attorney by profession). While campaigning Santamaría used to talk as she was still into government affairs.

2) The "conservative revolution" of Pablo Casado, a candidate to the right of old-fashioned provincian conservative Rajoy. Casado is a young man who wants to renew the party but, at the same time, he represents the comeback of old party leaders like José María Aznar and Esperanza Aguirre, or more precisely the triumph of their vision, I already posted about some of his stances and proposals.

Media narrative: the leadership contest was the Heiress of Rajoy Vs the Heir of Aznar.

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« Reply #1927 on: July 21, 2018, 01:16:16 pm »

Is it possible that alliance with Cs will turn out to be Macron's first big, bad bet in European politics? Some say the same is true about the Franco-German pact, excluding smaller countries who are now grouping together (an argument favoured by Eurointelligence, who regularly read this site, I believe). Either way the augurs seem good for PSOE, which by my jaundiced view is good for everyone except some right-wing Spanish people.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1928 on: July 21, 2018, 05:34:14 pm »

The election of Pablo Casado and the foreseeable competition between him and Albert Rivera on the grounds of right-wing Spanish nationalism might be good for the PSOE, because it places Pedro Sánchez in the centre. In case that the new leader of the Spanish Right launches a war on ideas, It could be good for Podemos that political battles are fought on ideological grounds. Maybe Casado will make moves in the following days indicative of the path he wants to choose, either the strong ideological stance in the border with Vox or a certain discursive modulation. Also, what is going to hapoen with Santamaria and her supporters. She wants to negotiate a place un party leadership, apparently.

Marta Pascal seems to be losing to Puigdemont in rhe PDeCAT convention. She resigned As coordinator for not having the confidence of the leader that is in Germany. Puigdemont could take full control.
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tack50
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« Reply #1929 on: July 22, 2018, 07:53:31 am »

Something that I find interesting is that even though Casado is the supposed heir of Aznar as the more conservative candidate, back on the day Aznar himself was the moderate, bringing PP to the centre and making it competitive with González's PSOE after Fraga's AP was considered too conservative and too close to the Franco regime.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1930 on: July 22, 2018, 09:28:08 am »
« Edited: July 22, 2018, 01:51:57 pm by Velasco »

David Bonvehí elected new chairman of the PDeCAT (formerly CDC). Deputy Miriam Nogueras is the new vice-chairman; presumably she will take control of the PDeCAT caucus in the Spanish Congress. As said before, former coordinator Marta Pascal resigned alleging that she's not trusted by Puigdemont anymore. This resignation and the low profile of the party leadership signal the defeat of the 'possibilist' faction that wanted to keep the party's identity. Puigdemont, who is the uncontested leader and the main electoral asset of the PDeCAT, takes control. Also, with this move the PDeCAT subordinates completely to Puigdemont and his new artifact, the Crida Nacional per la República ("National Call for the Republic"). As opposed to the 'possibilists' wanting to leave the unilateral path to independence and start a dialogue with the central government*, Puigdemont and his supporters are committed to maintain the tension. The Crida is an electoral vehicle that intends to be the equivalent of En Marche! (Macron obsession is everywhere) in the Catalan independence movement, with the aim of winning hegemony at the expense of ERC. The party led by Oriol Junqueras, who remains in jail, is more committed to possibilism since the failure of the unilateral declaration of independence in October 2017. Previously ERC pushed Puigdemont to declare the "Catalan Republic", so this turn displeased the deposed premier and worsened the acrimonious rivalry between the two nationalist parties.


*Marta Pascal and the parliamentary caucus pushed in favour of the no confidence motion against Rajoy, while Puigdemont and his supporters ('vicarious' premier Quim Torra and Elsa Artadi, among others) were in favour of abstention.

So we have that, in the same weekend, radicals have won in the PP and the PDeCAT conventions. Pedro Sánchez could find himself trapped by a nationalist front formed by PP-Cs on the one hand and Puigdemont on the other hand.


Something that I find interesting is that even though Casado is the supposed heir of Aznar as the more conservative candidate, back on the day Aznar himself was the moderate, bringing PP to the centre and making it competitive with González's PSOE after Fraga's AP was considered too conservative and too close to the Franco regime.

It's obvious that the alleged centrism or moderatism of José María Aznar was fake and cosmetic. On the other hand, the connection of Manuel Fraga with the Franco regime was so evident that a generational replacement was necessary, in order that the refurbished PP (the party was refounded by then) could break the famous 'glass ceiling' of the Spanish Right.
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The Saint
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« Reply #1931 on: July 22, 2018, 09:38:19 am »

Sorry, I misread and thought you said it was NOT a rightward turn. My mistake.
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tack50
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« Reply #1932 on: July 31, 2018, 08:54:49 am »

This is sort of unrelated, but I guess I'll post it here.

It's a map of control of the different provincial governments (diputaciones) and equivalents in the rest of Spain I made a while ago for Reddit.

Img


This map is actually mixing several stuff, so here's the explanation I made for the map:

Quote
Standard provincial governments (diputaciones): These are unelected, but instead are appointed deriving from the results of the last local elections. They are the least powerful and many people want to abolish them. There's one in each province in all multi-provincial autonomous communities except the Basque Country and the Canary Islands

Basque provincial governments (diputaciones forales): Pretty much the same as the others, except these ones are actually elected and have much more power.

Uniprovincial autonomous communities: Many autonomous communities have only 1 provinces (examples: Madrid, Asturias). Here I took the government of the autonomous community as it also takes over the powers the diputación would have (no point on having 2 if there's only one province in the first place)

Island governments (Cabildos in the Canary Islands, Concells insulars in the Balearic Islands): They have powers roughly equivalent to the Basque ones I guess or maybe just slightly inferior, but different. Still a lot more powerful than your standard diputacion. And also directly elected. They are elected by island, with one for each inhabited island, with the exception of La Graciosa in the Canaries (which has very low population and is only 3 km away from Lanzarote anyways)

Some of the more interesting stuff is seeing MES controlling almost everything in the Balearic Islands even though the regional government is led by PSOE, PAR managing to hold on in Teruel somehow (they actually came in third, but they are being propped up by PP and PSOE, who came first and second) and of course PSOE provincial governments in Soria and Pontevedra of all places, who have never voted PSOE in any election.
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« Reply #1933 on: July 31, 2018, 01:53:51 pm »

I read somewhere that the diputaciones forales in Euskadi and Navarra are the entities responsible of tax issues (they decide the taxes, collect them and I don't know about spending), so they are really powerful (more than the regional governments).
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tack50
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« Reply #1934 on: July 31, 2018, 02:48:30 pm »

I read somewhere that the diputaciones forales in Euskadi and Navarra are the entities responsible of tax issues (they decide the taxes, collect them and I don't know about spending), so they are really powerful (more than the regional governments).

Yup, the diputaciones forales are technically the ones in charge of handling the money from the concierto económico.  However I'd still say the Basque regional government is a lot more powerful than the diputaciones forales.

Though of course the diputaciones forales are still a lot more powerful than the standard diputaciones and also than the Cabildos/Concells.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1935 on: August 02, 2018, 10:36:58 am »
« Edited: August 04, 2018, 06:58:05 am by Velasco »

CIS July 2018. Fieldwork July 1 to 10, 1 month after Pedro Sánchez becomes the new PM and more than 10 days before Pablo Casado becomes the new PP leader.

Img

It's not surprising that PSOE is going up after the no confidence motion while Podemos drops. Obviously there's a vote transfer between the two parties in the left, but I don't think the PSOE can grow much more at the expense pf Podemos. The combined Cs-PP percentage is low, while the "others" percentage is a bit high if compared with other polls. I can't draw conclusions right  now. For sure some experts in media will dissect the poll insides.  

Immigration concern is three times higher than the previous month (11.1% in July to 3.5% in June), in coincidence with summer arrivals in Andalusia. In contrast concern on Catalonia is lower (6.3% to 7.1%). As usual, corruption and fraud (38.5%) and unemployment (64.3%) are the main concerns.
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« Reply #1936 on: August 02, 2018, 10:43:54 am »

Could there be a PSOE-Podemo government?
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« Reply #1937 on: August 02, 2018, 02:27:11 pm »

Could there be a PSOE-Podemo government?

That poll kinda is a high point for the PSOE, so lets get that out of the way. But if the election was held today? Nope. Podemos on 15% means only about 50 seats, and PSOE needs to get well above 30% to see 125+ seats. Plus about half of the PSOE gains are coming at the expense of Podesmos.

If an election were held today based on the present polling the resulting government would be some combination of PP, PSOE, or C's. Its been like this for a while. If this poll is the resulting government would probably be PSOE around 105-115 plus C's around 62-67.

Of course, once we get on the campaign trail things might change.
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tack50
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« Reply #1938 on: August 02, 2018, 03:24:08 pm »

Could there be a PSOE-Podemo government?

That poll kinda is a high point for the PSOE, so lets get that out of the way. But if the election was held today? Nope. Podemos on 15% means only about 50 seats, and PSOE needs to get well above 30% to see 125+ seats. Plus about half of the PSOE gains are coming at the expense of Podesmos.

If an election were held today based on the present polling the resulting government would be some combination of PP, PSOE, or C's. Its been like this for a while. If this poll is the resulting government would probably be PSOE around 105-115 plus C's around 62-67.

Of course, once we get on the campaign trail things might change.

From some seat extrapolation's I've seen, this poll would predict a very bare majority (176) between PSOE, Podemos and PNV. That is a viable combination but of course this is a high point
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Velasco
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« Reply #1939 on: August 03, 2018, 12:18:12 am »

Polls reflect a moment in time. At the beginning of July rhe PSOE was high, while the other parties were low for different reasons. The conventions of the PP and the PDeCAT at the end of July saw the victory of radicals in the Spanish Right and in Catalan separatism. On the one hand, Pablo Casado is implementing a tough and merciless opposition style, unashamedly resorting to demagoguery. Casado's claims on the supposed "call effect" that would be attracting illegal immigrants to Spanish coast, or the claims on alleged concessions to separatists are in this hard line. On the other hand, Puigdemont is unwilling to make things easy for Sánchez and is less ready for dialogue and cooperation than PDeCAT moderates. The government lost an important vote in Congress, when Podemos we and nationalists denied their support for a more relaxed expenditure target. It's hard to understand, when the EU Commission allowed more expenditure and the new target would have been a relief for regional governments, including Catalonia. Catalan nationalists argued that PP has a majority in Senate, but that could be overturned. In short, the government will have a very hard time to pass a budget. In case of snap election, I think neither the left nor the right would have a majority. Grand Coalition or PSOE-Cs seem very unlikely. Don't forget the undergoing investigation of the Casado's master degree. There will be new developments soon.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1940 on: August 04, 2018, 07:02:15 am »

Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Casado had their first meeting

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/08/03/inenglish/1533288882_522322.html

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Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and the main opposition leader, Pablo Casado of the Popular Party (PP), met for nearly three hours on Thursday at La Moncloa, the seat of government, to discuss issues ranging from immigration to gender violence and the situation in Catalonia.

But the meeting ended without any significant agreement, serving instead to highlight the division between the conservatives and the Socialist Party (PSOE) on the subject of Catalonia: while the latter thinks it is possible to respect the law and still hold talks with separatists, the PP rejects any form of dialogue with those who defend unilateral independence.
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« Reply #1941 on: August 04, 2018, 08:32:10 am »

Polls reflect a moment in time. At the beginning of July rhe PSOE was high, while the other parties were low for different reasons. The conventions of the PP and the PDeCAT at the end of July saw the victory of radicals in the Spanish Right and in Catalan separatism. On the one hand, Pablo Casado is implementing a tough and merciless opposition style, unashamedly resorting to demagoguery. Casado's claims on the supposed "call effect" that would be attracting illegal immigrants to Spanish coast, or the claims on alleged concessions to separatists are in this hard line. On the other hand, Puigdemont is unwilling to make things easy for Sánchez and is less ready for dialogue and cooperation than PDeCAT moderates. The government lost an important vote in Congress, when Podemos we and nationalists denied their support for a more relaxed expenditure target. It's hard to understand, when the EU Commission allowed more expenditure and the new target would have been a relief for regional governments, including Catalonia. Catalan nationalists argued that PP has a majority in Senate, but that could be overturned. In short, the government will have a very hard time to pass a budget. In case of snap election, I think neither the left nor the right would have a majority. Grand Coalition or PSOE-Cs seem very unlikely. Don't forget the undergoing investigation of the Casado's master degree. There will be new developments soon.

Maybe I am wrong here (you always can be watching from outside the nation) but the only sicking point between a PSOE-C's coalition is the Catalan issue - a C's red line. The two parties talked and attempted a government pact in the 2015-2016 crisis period, but it fell apart because C's and Podemos are polar opposites and refuse to support each other. There are a lot of stuff that both parties agree on, and other policies that as shown by 2015/16, are not hard to compromise on. If the numbers support a PSOE-C's government without any minor parties (or a PP-C's government if the situation flips), then I suspect it will be pursued by both parties. 
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Velasco
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« Reply #1942 on: August 04, 2018, 09:10:56 am »
« Edited: August 05, 2018, 05:34:07 am by Velasco »

I wouldn't rule out the possibility, but I think that PSOE and Cs are much more distanced now than two years ago. Cs has shifted ostensibly to the right in order to catch all the PP vote. The Albert Rivera party has been always very hard line on Catalonia, but now oranges have to compete with Casado and that implies even more toughness. While PSOE favors dialogue on order to reestablish institutional relationship between central and regional governments (without making concessions on independence referendum or right to self-determination), PP and Cs are against talking with separatists. Both parties in the right are equally radical on this matter. Possibly PSOE and Cs can find some coincidences on policies and their deal in 2016 proves that, but Rivera's rhetoric against this government is so harsh that it's hard to imagine a new arrangement. But who knows, things can evolve in any direction.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1943 on: August 06, 2018, 03:36:32 am »
« Edited: August 06, 2018, 08:47:03 am by Velasco »

The Guardian: Spanish Right whips up fears as migration surge hits Andalusian shores. New rightwing party leaders are convinced that immigration will be a vote-winner, but on the front line in Algeciras there is more frustration than alarm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/05/spain-rightwing-parties-spar-immigration-surge-boats

Quote
(,,,) In a country that has traditionally been pro-immigration and devoid of a significant far-right party since its return to democracy, their words have raised eyebrows and concerns. “The first thing we need to be clear about is that there’s a bit of unwarranted alarm over the arrivals we’ve seen over the past month,” said Villahoz, president of Algeciras Acoge, the local branch of an Andalucian NGO that works to protect, educate and integrate migrants.

“In 2006, almost 40,000 reached Spain by arriving on the shores of the Canary islands and Cádiz. We’ve had lots of people arriving here for many years but it’s only now the politicians are making a lot of noise and creating a lot of alarm. In 2003, it was about 20,000.”

The politicians in question are Pablo Casado, the new leader of Spain’s conservative People’s party (PP), and Albert Rivera, who heads the rival Citizens party (...)

The sudden ignition of the debate on immigration in Spain by PP and Cs has raised alarms in Brussels. According to El País, a shivering attack hits the European Commission seat in Berleymont building. Spain, Portugal and Ireland remain as the countries in Europe lacking a far-right anti-immigration party in parliament. The fear is that, once the fear on immigration is fuelled, it's very difficult to put out the fire. EU is in a state of extreme fragility and is threatened by the rise of far-right populism. It cannot afford to lose Spain, as it happened with Italy. It's too early to say if Casado and Rivera are going to pursue this populist course of action, or they will tone down their calls to fear.



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Velasco
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« Reply #1944 on: August 06, 2018, 09:14:45 am »

Judge investigating master irregularities at Juan Carlos I University brings the case to the Supreme Court, suspecting that the Casado's degree was "given for free". Parlamentarians in Spain are "aforados" (they have a special legal status) and must be investigated by the Supreme Court, not by ordinary courts. Casado stated that he won't resign in case there is a formal investigation against him. Pedro Sanchez simply said that Casado should be accountable to Spanish citizens. Podemos demands that Casado resigns, while a Cs spokesman said the situation of the PP leader is "serious".
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tack50
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« Reply #1945 on: August 13, 2018, 04:19:06 am »

Apparently La Razon did a recient poll on the monarchy and republicanism in Spain. The biggest question: "Should Spain become a republic?" saw a 64% no, 27% yes split; but with a massive age gap: Young people (under 35) support a republic by a 48-40 margin while everyone else supports the monarchy overwhelmingly

The related "Should a referendum on monarchy/republic be called" saw a similar result (32-62 overall) and a similar age gap (young people support it 52-44, everyone else doesn't want a referendum 28-64)

Other questions include the fact that both king Felipe VI and former queen Sofía have very positive approval ratings, while both former king Juan Carlos I and current queen Leticia are underwater (though still far better approval ratings than any politician; for comparison, Pedro Sánchez himself is at a 4/10 and Rajoy was at a 3.3/10 before being ousted)

Here's the full poll

Img


Img


Of course there's no way the monarchy is going away unfortunately; as it's extremely protected in the constitution. Getting rid of the monarchy would require a "severe" constitutional reform of Title II (which requires 2/3 of both chambers, snap elections, 2/3 again and a referendum)

The only time I ever saw a reform of Title II considered at all was when Leticia was pregnant with her second child. Had she had a boy, under current law the heir to the throne would be the boy, not Leonor (the older sibling). The reform would have removed the preference for boys from the constitution. Of course, since she had another girl the reform was shelved as it was unnecessary, but if for some reason she had a son (which probably isn't happening) I guess we would see more debates on the monarchy.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #1946 on: August 13, 2018, 01:44:51 pm »

What was the changes in healthcare system which PP government implemented in 2012. As I can see PSOE now is claiming that they succeeded in reverting them and I wonder what was that about.
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tack50
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« Reply #1947 on: August 13, 2018, 03:35:10 pm »

What was the changes in healthcare system which PP government implemented in 2012. As I can see PSOE now is claiming that they succeeded in reverting them and I wonder what was that about.

From what I can tell it was basically cuts. There was a 10 000 million € cut early in Rajoy's tenure and healthcare investments are still lower than in 2009, both as a % of GDP and in total. There have also been increases in waiting lists for treatments.

The only "change" Rajoy brought was that illegal inmigrants wouldn't be allowed to use healthcare other than for emergency purposes. However reverting that was one of the earliest measures taken by the Sánchez government so maybe other than fully implementing it I don't know what they can do.
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« Reply #1948 on: August 13, 2018, 03:42:10 pm »

What was the changes in healthcare system which PP government implemented in 2012. As I can see PSOE now is claiming that they succeeded in reverting them and I wonder what was that about.

From what I can tell it was basically cuts. There was a 10 000 million € cut early in Rajoy's tenure and healthcare investments are still lower than in 2009, both as a % of GDP and in total. There have also been increases in waiting lists for treatments.

The only "change" Rajoy brought was that illegal inmigrants wouldn't be allowed to use healthcare other than for emergency purposes. However reverting that was one of the earliest measures taken by the Sánchez government so maybe other than fully implementing it I don't know what they can do.


Oh ok. Thank you for your answer.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1949 on: August 13, 2018, 07:24:10 pm »

Apparently La Razon did a recient poll on the monarchy and republicanism in Spain. The biggest question: "Should Spain become a republic?" saw a 64% no, 27% yes split; but with a massive age gap: Young people (under 35) support a republic by a 48-40 margin while everyone else supports the monarchy overwhelmingly

Possibly there's not still a majority supporting the republic, but I doubt the monarchy has such a level of support given some recent events that have discredited the institution and led to the abdication of the now emeritus king:  the corruption scandal involving Iñaki Urdangarín and the Juan Carlos' affairs unveiled after the Botswana hunting accident. It wouldn't be surprising a certain pro-monarchy bias in a conservative newspaper like La Razón. On the other hand, it's telling the fact that CIS surveys stopped asking about monarchy shortly after the beginning of the King Felipe reign.

There is a recent international survey conducted by Ipsos that says Spanish monarchy has the lowest level of support among European monarchies. According to that survey 37% is openly in favour of abolishing monarchy and 52% in favour of a referendum.

https://www.ipsos.com/es-es/la-monarquia-espanola-la-menos-apoyada-entre-las-monarquias-europeas
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