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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 292187 times)
c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
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« Reply #2150 on: December 03, 2018, 11:21:06 am »

Are we really complaining about a fascist's grave being desecrated?
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bigic
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« Reply #2151 on: December 03, 2018, 12:39:26 pm »
« Edited: December 03, 2018, 12:46:04 pm by bigic 🌐 »

As for Ciudadanos governing with Vox support, there are precedents in the EU. Although the parties are on the right relative to the other ALDE parties and I as a liberal don't endorse such deals.
NL: VVD-CDA + LPF (2002)/PVV (2010), although the deals were short-lived, lasting 1-2 years
DK: Venstre-Konservative(-LA)+DF (2001-2011, 2015-)
FI: Kesk-Kok-PerusS (2015-, although PerusS split not long after entering government, with anti-government faction staying in the party)
There may be a few more I'm not aware of...
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Rep. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #2152 on: December 03, 2018, 01:34:36 pm »

Yeah, it's not completely unprecedented at an EU scale but it's certainly not ideal. On the other hand there isn't really an alternative other than PSOE-Cs-AA or a grand coalition (PSOE-PP). Neither of which is happening.

Then again I think cordon sanitaires are undemocratic. Andalusians have voted for a PP-Cs-Vox government and that's what they should get.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2153 on: December 03, 2018, 01:55:46 pm »

Then again I think cordon sanitaires are undemocratic. Andalusians have voted for a PP-Cs-Vox government and that's what they should get.

I don't think that's entirely true, but they've certainly voted for political paralysis and they'll get that no matter...
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Velasco
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« Reply #2154 on: December 03, 2018, 02:06:39 pm »


Then again I think cordon sanitaires are undemocratic. Andalusians have voted for a PP-Cs-Vox government and that's what they should get.

The efectiveness of the cordon sanitaire is highly debatable, but in no way that policy is undemocratic. Andalusians voted the composition of the regional parliament, not for specific coalition agreements. In any case, Cs will have to show what is its true nature. Oranges claim that Macron is their reference. VOX leader Santiago Abascal is a great admirer of Marine Le Pen. The visions of Macron and Le Pen are antithetical. Where is Cs actually?
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ag
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« Reply #2155 on: December 03, 2018, 02:08:06 pm »
« Edited: December 03, 2018, 02:11:22 pm by ag »


Holy of Holies has, clearly, been rediscovered.
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Rep. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #2156 on: December 03, 2018, 02:35:04 pm »
« Edited: December 03, 2018, 02:41:03 pm by tack50 »


Then again I think cordon sanitaires are undemocratic. Andalusians have voted for a PP-Cs-Vox government and that's what they should get.

The efectiveness of the cordon sanitaire is highly debatable, but in no way that policy is undemocratic. Andalusians voted the composition of the regional parliament, not for specific coalition agreements. In any case, Cs will have to show what is its true nature. Oranges claim that Macron is their reference. VOX leader Santiago Abascal is a great admirer of Marine Le Pen. The visions of Macron and Le Pen are antithetical. Where is Cs actually?

Oh, I'd actually be in favour of an alternative coalition if one was actually viable (say, PSOE+Cs with an overall majority).

But right now the only possibility would be either PSOE+Cs+AA (probably with Marín as premier) or a grand coalition, neither of which is happening. Though I'll admit I like the "Borgen-like" PSOE+Cs+AA with Marín as premier but I fear that would be worse for Spain in the long run, emboldening Vox and PP.

In any case it seems clear to me that they'll do a deal with Vox. I wonder what Manuel Valls has to say about it. Tongue
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2157 on: December 03, 2018, 02:36:04 pm »

Andalusians voted the composition of the regional parliament, not for specific coalition agreements.

Yes, this is important. No blocs were on the ballot, the electorate clearly did not vote as if they existed.
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Rep. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #2158 on: December 03, 2018, 02:40:38 pm »
« Edited: December 03, 2018, 02:43:41 pm by tack50 »

Also, while his prediction was complete garbage (then again so were the polls), Kiko Llaneras and El País have published a detailed analysis of Vox's voting patterns. Some are more surprising than others but they are all interesting especially when compared to similar parties elsewhere in Europe:

The most important factor seems to be the % of non-EU inmigrants, with Vox performing extremely well where there is a lot of inmigration



There's also a weaker correlation between population density and Vox voters, where Vox performs better in densely populated areas (ie cities). This seems reversed compared to other right wing populists like say AfD.



There's also a correlation between income and Vox votes. I guess Vox voters are not exactly "economically anxious"



However, there doesn't seem to be a correlation at all between unemployment and Vox votes



Finally, Vox certainly stole votes from the right and not the left. They performed better in areas where PP and Cs did well in 2015, not in areas where PSOE and Podemos/IU did well



https://elpais.com/politica/2018/12/03/actualidad/1543829876_200181.html

By the way, the official website for the election actually has precinct data available, a rarity for Spanish elections! So if anyone wants to try to mess around with it, the option is there I guess

https://www.resultadoseleccionesparlamentoandalucia2018.es/Mesas
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #2159 on: December 03, 2018, 03:13:04 pm »

So obviously this is bad for Sanchez, but isn't even in worse for his enemies within the party? What power do Diaz and her lieutenants have without their control of the south?
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Velasco
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« Reply #2160 on: December 03, 2018, 03:43:50 pm »

Susana Diaz should not survive after this catastriphic election. Diaz says that she would have resigned in case of defeat, but claims that coming first with that poor result is a victory. Diaz controls the party in Andalusia, but I think the national executive cimmittee should take action. She is clearly a political corpse. As for the other 'barons', they'll have to pass the elections in May 2019.

The VOX stuff is intetesting. I saw the GAD3 chief pollster Narciso Michavila in TV. He says that  VOX grew exponentially in the last week, in paralallel to a increasing demobilization in the left. Michavila was making the poll that was released when polling stations closed. Why is it still illegal to publish polls in the last week?
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« Reply #2161 on: December 03, 2018, 04:22:47 pm »


Then again I think cordon sanitaires are undemocratic. Andalusians have voted for a PP-Cs-Vox government and that's what they should get.

The efectiveness of the cordon sanitaire is highly debatable, but in no way that policy is undemocratic. Andalusians voted the composition of the regional parliament, not for specific coalition agreements. In any case, Cs will have to show what is its true nature. Oranges claim that Macron is their reference. VOX leader Santiago Abascal is a great admirer of Marine Le Pen. The visions of Macron and Le Pen are antithetical. Where is Cs actually?

Oh, I'd actually be in favour of an alternative coalition if one was actually viable (say, PSOE+Cs with an overall majority).

But right now the only possibility would be either PSOE+Cs+AA (probably with Marín as premier) or a grand coalition, neither of which is happening. Though I'll admit I like the "Borgen-like" PSOE+Cs+AA with Marín as premier but I fear that would be worse for Spain in the long run, emboldening Vox and PP.

In any case it seems clear to me that they'll do a deal with Vox. I wonder what Manuel Valls has to say about it. Tongue

Yeah I would also prefer a govt without VOX here...but realistically C's would prefer having VOX on their side rather then any friend of Podemos. The only realistic other option I feel is PSOE+C's minority with AA effectively capitulating from the outside, but that won't last long and likely collapses after the expected 2019 election.  
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #2162 on: December 03, 2018, 04:42:30 pm »

There's also a correlation between income and Vox votes. I guess Vox voters are not exactly "economically anxious"



To the shock of absolutely nobody that actually looks beyond the ridiculous media narrative about far right voters.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #2163 on: December 03, 2018, 04:59:27 pm »

 Hasn't the pattern of recent Austrian and German elections been that AFD and FPO have done well in poorer areas?  I do recall that Hofer defeated Van der Bellen in the blue collar electorate by something like 9 to 1, at least among men, that of course being a two way race.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #2164 on: December 03, 2018, 05:56:59 pm »

Hasn't the pattern of recent Austrian and German elections been that AFD and FPO have done well in poorer areas?  I do recall that Hofer defeated Van der Bellen in the blue collar electorate by something like 9 to 1, at least among men, that of course being a two way race.

Yes, but no two countries are the same: In Austria, you have a party with very well established roots in working class areas opposing a candidate that was literally the embodiment of the urban elite; whereas Vox is (at present) heavily associated with ultra conservative factions of the PP and the old Francoist elite.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #2165 on: December 03, 2018, 08:59:50 pm »

As for the other 'barons', they'll have to pass the elections in May 2019.

I am not sure what you mean by that.
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Rep. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #2166 on: December 04, 2018, 03:29:45 am »

As for the other 'barons', they'll have to pass the elections in May 2019.

I am not sure what you mean by that.

Pretty much that they have to prove themselves and get reelected in 2019. There are now 6 PSOE premiers, 1 of them anti-Sánchez back on the day and only 1 pro-Sánchez:

Pro-Sánchez:
Francina Armengol (Balearic Islands)

Anti-Sánchez:
Guillermo Fernández Vara (Extremadura)
Emiliano García Page (Castille-La Mancha)
Ximo Puig (Valencia)
Javier Lambán (Aragón)
Javier Fernández (Asturias, retiring)

So other than Javier Fernández, who is retiring, most other high profile Sánchez challengers are up for reelection in 2019. Then again it's worth noting that all but Puig are in traditional PSOE stronholds at the regional level. My ratings for each one before and after the Andalusian election (and they might actually be generous!):

Balearic Islands: Tossup->Lean PP
Extremadura: Likely PSOE->Tossup
Castille-La Mancha: Lean PSOE->Lean PP
Asturias: Safe PSOE->Lean PSOE
Valencia: Lean PSOE->Tossup
Aragón: Lean PP->Likely PP

(reminder I had Andalucia as Safe PSOE so yeah)

Looks pretty ugly, but I don't think there will be a divide between Sánchez supporters and opponents. Díaz was unpopular because of that but I don't think this applies to the rest of the premiers
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7sergi9
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« Reply #2167 on: December 04, 2018, 08:21:33 am »

So we have Celeste Tel and NC Report predicting a poor result for CS, that would stay in the 4th place. And we have this one saying that Cs will get a very strong result and will come second, besides surprisingly good result for Vox in a region where nobody would give the far-right a chance. Which one should I trust?

I assume that Cs will grow, but I think that surpassing the PP to come second won't be easy. Neither CS nor PP have good candidates, but their national leaders will campaign hard. Inés Arrimadas and Albert Rivera have Andalusian background and that's an advantage for Cs. PP gains un territorial implementation and this is an advantage in the campaign. PSOE will resist, but is losing ground every election. Too many years in power. It seems that the coalition between Podemos and IU will retain or increase the 20 seats they got separately ln 2015, despite they would lose some votes. IU didn't win seats  in certain provinces and the votes were wasted. Running in coalition compensates the loses.

Oranges have promised that they won't support Susana Díaz again. This leaves collaboration between PSOE and Ahora Andalucía as the only viable option, because PP and Cs won't have the numbers. The problem is that Susana Díaz and Teresa Rodríguez don't like each other. Susana Díaz is in the right wing of her party; she would be more comfortable dealing with Cs. Teresa Rodríguez is in the left wing of Podemos, in the trotskyst faction known as Anticapitalistas.


Hmmmm
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #2168 on: December 04, 2018, 09:43:27 am »

Just remembered that in 2019, my fave Ada Colau will be sacrificed on the alter of nationalism.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2169 on: December 04, 2018, 10:00:36 am »

David Duke, white supremacist and former KKK leader, also known for his participation in the Charlotteville racist riots, congratulates VOX:

"VOX triumphs in Andalusia! 12 seats and the end of the socialist regime 🇪🇸 #EspañaViva makes it history and shows that change is possible. The Reconquista begins in the Andalusian lands and will be extended in the rest of Spain 📣 #AndalucíaPorEspaña"

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/12/04/actualidad/1543928361_948093.html

The Reactionary Internationale in motion.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2170 on: December 04, 2018, 11:54:24 am »

David Duke, white supremacist and former KKK leader, also known for his participation in the Charlotteville racist riots, congratulates VOX:

"VOX triumphs in Andalusia! 12 seats and the end of the socialist regime 🇪🇸 #EspañaViva makes it history and shows that change is possible. The Reconquista begins in the Andalusian lands and will be extended in the rest of Spain 📣 #AndalucíaPorEspaña"

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/12/04/actualidad/1543928361_948093.html

The Reactionary Internationale in motion.

I really doubt anyone knows who David Duke is

In Spain, yes. On this forum, no
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Velasco
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« Reply #2171 on: December 04, 2018, 01:50:36 pm »

Just remembered that in 2019, my fave Ada Colau will be sacrificed on the alter of nationalism.

Her chances of victory might improve in case that ERC and JxCAT/Crida run separate lists. The list of Manuel Valls on the opposite side could be a strong challenger too. Chances are slim, I'm afraid.

Manuela Carmena is doing a good job in Madrid and might have better chances to win reelection than Ada Colau in Barcelona.  However, the Podemos leadership is undermining that possibility. Given that Manuela Carmena is aged 74 and could retire before the end of term, Pablo Iglesias wants to pick her sucessor (Julio Rodríguez,  retired general and former JEMAD*) and place loyals in electable positions. The councilors from Podemos are appreciated by Carmena, but they feared to be displaced from electable positions by the party.  So they decided not to participate in the Podemos primaries and run as independents in the Carmena list. The councilors have been expelled from Podemos, including the spokeswoman of the local government Rita Maestre. Iñigo Etrrejón,  who is going the candidate for the Madrid region, remains in silence but probably is not very pleased. The chances of Errejon are linked to Carmena.

*Commander in Chief of the Army during the second term of Zapatero and close collaborator of the deceased Carme Chacon, by then minister of Defence (first woman in the post)
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Rep. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #2172 on: December 04, 2018, 04:17:07 pm »

Actually, I don't think Carmena nor Colau have a high chance of being reelected. In fact I'd actually argue Colau is more of a favourite than Carmena because of Barcelona being a lot more friendly than Madrid and the more fractured council which means she might have an easy time emerging as a "consensus candidate" as she can do deals with pretty much everyone. (something like 25% for Carmena and 35% for Colau)

IMO it will depend a lot on how well they can isolate themselves from national tendencies, as Carmena is a popular mayor in hostile territory while Colau is an unpopular mayor in friendly territory.

As of now I do think Cs will take Madrid while ERC will take Barcelona (though this one is a bit less clear to me)

In any case of the high profile Podemos mayors I'd say only Kichi in Cádiz is favoured. Maybe the 2 ones in Galicia (A Coruña and Santiago de Compostela) though those are less known. Finally Zamora is a big question mark as it's rural enough (63k people) that personally knowing the mayor does a lot and local issues will be more prominent.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2173 on: December 04, 2018, 05:14:01 pm »

Fascinating map of results by precinct or census section. You can zoom in and out throughout Andalusia and click on the map to see the result in a specific location, or type an adress in the box...

https://m.eldiario.es/andalucia/MAPA-partido-elecciones-andaluzas-manzana_0_842366730.html
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« Reply #2174 on: December 04, 2018, 06:33:25 pm »

Horrible results, although the demise of the socialists was totally expected. The campaign was simply horrible and they deserved it because they brought VOX to the campaign, although the media has a strong responsibility. They started to talk about VOX for months as if the party had a strong poll %, despite the party was polling around the same percentage as PACMA. They created a monster.

What I didn't expect was Adelante Andalucia's results, there are no words to describe that result. I don't think that could bring more friction between Rodriguez and Iglesias, but could bring a war in Izquierda Unida. I think the organization's old guard never liked these confluencias (too much power for Iglesias?) and they probably didn't participate enough in the campaign and will start to campaign against these types of organizations.

About the effect in Catalunya, is a very difficult situation for the soberanists, because this enforce the message that Spain is unfixable, but right now If I were a soberanist leader (and this includes the basques parties and Compromis) I would be terrified of early elections and would try to work with Pedro Sanchez. Strong Vox and Ciudadanos with a PP ruled by its right-wing faction could be terrible for the autonomies.

On Vox results, there is a good article published by eldiario about El Ejido before the election, anticipating a good result for Vox. Seems a place with many señoritos and their friends that vote for Vox and there is a lack of working class organizations (I saw turnout in the map from eldiario and actually is very low there). Horrible people.

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/Vox-crece-invernaderos-Almeria_0_840966249.html

Other thing, I think the Spanish political process is more related to LatAm than Europe in some aspects, including the rise of far right parties (increasing after the rise in Europe and mostly supported by upper class voters).



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