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Velasco
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« Reply #2275 on: January 28, 2019, 09:07:47 AM »
« edited: January 28, 2019, 07:53:21 PM by Velasco »

Podemos leadership reconsiders after the resignation of Ramón Espinar. Spokeswoman in Congress Irene Montero, who is acting as interim leader while her partner Pablo Iglesias is on paternity leave, says that Podemos will talk with Errejón  before the elections. In the days following the release of the joint letter of Carmena and Errejón, Montero stated that the bridges were broken. There is division in Podemos between the supporters of a deal with Errejón (unitary list) and the supporters of running against Más Madrid in coalition with IU. Some people in Podemos think that running against Errejón would be a "suicide", but there are hardliners opposed to a deal with the "traitor" and Pablo Iglesias has been looking unsuccessfully for an independent on the top of a rival list. The negotiations will be complicated in any case.


I do think PSOE can take back a lot of Podemos voters if there's a true collapse though. In Catalonia/Basque Country they will indeed to go Bildu or ERC for the most part, but in the rest of the country I can easily see most Podemos voters going to PSOE again.

Remember that back in 2008 pretty much all the groups you mentioned were firm PSOE voters. Granted that was at the peak of the 2 party system, but I'm not sure if turnout can get much lower either. Remember 2016 had the lowest turnout in Spanish history already.

Similarly, the Andalusian election technically did not see record breaking low turnout either, 1990 had lower turnout (and PSOE won a majority anyways).

Disagree. We can't go back to 2008 pretending that the global crisis, its harsh impact in Spain and the 15M movement never happened. Podemos was born as the heir party of said movement and all the people coming from there (the "Futurless Youth") is not likely to back PSOE. Because of this and because the PSOE's strategy is trying to occupy the centre (deserted by Cs and PP), the total collapse of Podemos is not in the PSOE's interest.

The result in Andalusia was the combination of a depressed left wing turnout with a high mobilization of right wing voters. Additionally, there was a reconfiguration of the space right of the centre: PP losing ground, Cs increasing and the Vox surge
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« Reply #2276 on: January 29, 2019, 06:47:12 AM »

Hey, I found this on Twitter:



How reliable is it? Is it an internal of some sort? I'm not very familiar with polling around here.

If true, those are some very weak numbers for the left.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2277 on: January 29, 2019, 08:29:09 AM »

Hey, I found this on Twitter:



How reliable is it? Is it an internal of some sort? I'm not very familiar with polling around here.

If true, those are some very weak numbers for the left.

I guess you are referring to the Invymark poll for Telemadrid. The pollster is OK, but the sample size is way too small (only 400) and the margin of error higher than usual.

Anyway Madrid looks like an uphill battle for the left, even with an exceptional candidate like Manuela Carmena. She is a good mayor who has reduced the nunicipal debt left by the PP administrations, as well she has implemented good policies on environment and citizen participation (among others). I think her list will come first easily (the right wing vote is splitted in three), but it will be difficult to repeat the left-wing majority in a city that leans to the right and in the present circumstances. On the other hand, Begoña Villacis won't hesitate in replicating the Triple Alliance of Andalusia. However,  Carmena is the only one who can replicate the 2015 miracle. She needs a big mobilization of left-wing and progressive voters. It's going to be very hard, but not imposible
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2278 on: January 29, 2019, 10:23:45 AM »

Uphill battle is putting it lightly IMO. Madrid is close to being a lost cause (a shame, Carmena is genuinely popular and probably the best Podemos mayor, but Madrid is just too conservative). 

The only way for Carmena to be reelected is if Cs, PP and Vox fail to reach an agreement, in that case she automatically becomes mayor 2 months after the election or something like that. But barring a very weak minority government or something weird like Cs supporting Carmena I don't think she survives.

I do agree Carmena is the only hope (even if it's a very faint one). Also, keep in mind that PSOE in Madrid city has pretty much disappeared, it wouldn't be unthinkable (although it's unlikely) that PSOE falls below the 5% threshold.

Remember we are headed for a right wing landslide (if we believe polling); somewhere between the scale of 2000 and 2011. I don't know how many mayors are hopless causes but for reference we could look at the 2011 defeat as a worst case scenario:

Back in 2011 out of the 104 municipalities that are provincial capitals or have a population over 75000; the left held 22 for PSOE; 1 for Bildu, 1 for BNG and 1 for a tiny, probably local party (the Greens in Orihuela); for a total of 25 left wing mayors.

Currently out of the 107 muncipalities with the same specifications, the left holds 44 for PSOE, 7 for Podemos, 3 for IU, 1-2 for a tiny or local parties (the Greens in Torrevieja and maybe MCC in Cartagena), 1 for ERC, 1 for NCa, 1 for BNG, 1 for Compromís, 1 for Bildu for a total of 60-61 left wing mayors.

So I'd say that around 15 big city mayors will lose. And the most likely ones are the ones that have tiny majorities to begin with (like Carmena)

Anyways the poll seems good, it's not an internal and the result is believable but with a small sample and a big margin of error.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2279 on: January 29, 2019, 11:56:48 AM »

Carmena is not a Podemos mayor: she is an independent who was backed by Podemos. She always remarks her independence from party structures and this is one of her main assets, besides her competence and many other personal qualities (sorry, I'm a bit of a fan and this is not usual in me). Currently she's allied with a dissident of that party and her relationship with the Podemos leadership is frozen. Furthermore, all the Podemos councilors are suspended from membership: at this moment the Pablo Iglesias party is not part of the local government. If Carnena was the typical candidate with a party affiliation, I would say she's done and has no chance at all. Given that she's exceptional and she's an independent who can appeal a broader base, I think there's still a small ray of light. Anyway it's more likely that Begoña Villacis becomes the next mayor with the support of PP and the far right VOX. At least that's what the polls say. Often predictions hold true, but sometimes there's room for surprise. In 2015 Carmena was polling a distant second behind Aguirre, but the campaign boosted her popularity (she was little known before) and came very close on election night.

Indeed, we are heading to a right wing nationalist majority according to the polls. It'd be depressing if it wasn't for the extreme volatility of the political situation. If we go a little time back, we could remember that Podemos was sunken in the polls months before the 2015 general rlections (Cs boosted after its success in the Catalonia), in which the purple party got more than 20% from the scratch and was the moral victor. Pedro Sánchez was deemed a corpse when he was ousted from party leadership and he is now the PM...
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Velasco
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« Reply #2280 on: January 30, 2019, 12:55:45 AM »
« Edited: January 30, 2019, 01:00:58 AM by Velasco »

Former coach of the Spanish basketball team Pepu Hernández is the candidate picked by Pedro Sánchez to run for the mayoralty of Madrid. Hernández coached the national team that won the 2006 World Championship in Japan. He was also the coach of Estudiantes, a team based in Madrid. Pedro Sánchez  is a big fan of basketball and played in Estudiantes as a teenager, from there their friendship. Hernández is an independent. At first he will have to run in the primary election scheduled on March 9 and there's another candidate who wants the nomination: Manuel de la Rocha, a member of the left wing faction. PSOE senior figures like Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba and Cristina Narbona, as well as Interior minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska, had previously rejected to run in Madrid. The PSOE faces difficulties in the city of Madrid after four years in the shadow of Carmena, supporting her investiture as mayor without taking place in local government. PSOE spokeswoman in Madrid relativized the value of the last poll placing socialists in 5th position behind Vox, saying that the margin of error is huge and it was conducted before "political events that have modified reality": alliance between Carmena and  Errejón, outbreak of the Podemos crisis.

Confirmed candidates so far:

Manuela Carmena (Más Madrid)
Begoña Villacís (Ciudadanos)
José Luis Martínez Almeida (PP)

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Velasco
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« Reply #2281 on: January 31, 2019, 05:15:26 AM »
« Edited: January 31, 2019, 08:24:52 AM by Velasco »

Fresh poll for the Madrid regional election

Celeste-Tel / eldiario.es

https://m.eldiario.es/politica/candidatura-Errejon-superaria-Podemos-gobernar_0_862664557.html

PSOE 21.4% 30 seats
PP 20 8% 29 seats
Cs 19.2% 27 seats
Más Madrid 10.5% 15 seats
Podemos 9% 12 seats
Vox 8.4% 12 seats
IU 5.3% 7 seats

Triple Alliance (PP-Cs-Vox) 48.4% 68 seats
Left (PSOE, Más Madrid,  Podemos, IU) 46.2% 64 seats

Some people begins to speculate on the 'Big Centre' or 'Macron' alliance between PSOE, Cs and Más Madrid (51.1% 72 seats). I don't see it at this stage, but who knows...

There was a meeting of the Podemos' Citizen Council yesterday. It's the equivalent of an executive committee and there is a majority of Pablo Iglesias supporters (Iglesias 37, Errejon 23, Anticapitalistas 2). Iglesias is on paternity leave and participated telematically. Previously he posted a long text in Facebook. Iglesias wrote that he's hurt and upset  but, despite everything, Errejon is not a traitor and he must be an ally. This means Pablo Iglesias and his inner circle consider Errejon is not in Podemos anymore, but they acknowledge a deal with Más Madrid on a joint list is necessary. Errejon didn't attend in order to avoid conflict, after Irene Montero said she preferred that Errejon was not present in the council meeeting. Other members of the Errejon faction attended anyway. The council agreed a route map for alliances. Podemos will hold primaries first, then there will be a negotiation with 'preferent partners' IU and Equo. The negotiation between Unidos Podemos and Más Madrid would be the last step...

The rift between Iglesias abd Errejon is very deep and possibly IU is going to play an important role in the negotiations for a joint list
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Velasco
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« Reply #2282 on: February 01, 2019, 04:40:30 AM »

Celeste-Tel poll for the Madrid local elections

Más Madrid 28.4% 18 councilors (-2)
PP 21.9% 13 councilors (-8)
Cs 21.8% 13 councilors (+6)
PSOE 13.7% 8 councilors (-1)
VOX 8.2% 5 councilors (+5)
IU 2.3% nc (-)

https://m.eldiario.es/politica/Carmena-elecciones-Madrid-PSOE-Ciudadanos_0_863014431.html

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Mike88
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« Reply #2283 on: February 02, 2019, 07:48:16 PM »

NC-Report poll for the Community of Madrid:

21.3% PP, 31 seats
20.4% PSOE, 30
18.9% C's, 27
13.2% Más Madrid, 19
10.4% Vox, 15
  7.4% UP, 10
  8.4% Others

Invymark poll for la Sexta TV:

23.9% PSOE, 96 seats
21.3% PP, 91
20.9% C's, 76
13.5% UP, 35
11.2% Vox, 28
  9.4% Others, 24

CIS poll: (lol)

29.9% PSOE
17.7% C's
15.4% UP
14.9% PP
  6.5% Vox
  4.7% ERC
  1.7% PACMA
  1.3% PNV
  1.1% Bildu
  1.0% PDeCAT
  0.2% CC
  5.6% Others
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2284 on: February 03, 2019, 08:16:08 AM »

Regarding the polls yeah, forget about the CIS poll, it's totally rigged. Probably a terrible decision on Sánchez's part.

In any case, they all just confirm what we knew. At the national level PSOE is favoured to be the largest party but the right will probably get a majority so who cares. The big question is whether PSOE+Cs is possible or not. Right now it seems they will fail but maybe they'll rise in the future?

Same for the Madrid poll except there's a 3 way tie for first there. In any case I rate Madrid Lean Cs as of now, though I guess I should move it to a PP-Cs tossup
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Mike88
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« Reply #2285 on: February 03, 2019, 08:36:11 AM »

Regarding the polls yeah, forget about the CIS poll, it's totally rigged. Probably a terrible decision on Sánchez's part.

In any case, they all just confirm what we knew. At the national level PSOE is favoured to be the largest party but the right will probably get a majority so who cares. The big question is whether PSOE+Cs is possible or not. Right now it seems they will fail but maybe they'll rise in the future?

Same for the Madrid poll except there's a 3 way tie for first there. In any case I rate Madrid Lean Cs as of now, though I guess I should move it to a PP-Cs tossup

The CIS debacle is just ridiculous. Anyway, i think that, in the future, a PSOE/C's coalition may be possible, but currently i think Sanchéz is an impossible pill for many C's voters to swallow. If, in the future, a more centrist/moderate PSOE leader emerges, C's could find themselves more "cozy" with PSOE rather than with PP.

The Spanish 2019 elections will probably be one of the most unpredictable ever. In many cities and communities there is a very close 3 way race between PSOE/PP/C's and a huge surge of Vox.
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« Reply #2286 on: February 03, 2019, 08:42:51 AM »

If after an national election a PSOE+C majority is possible but so is a PP+C+VOX what would be C's preference?  I assume what you guys are saying is it depends on if Sánchez is the PSOE PM candidate or someone else?
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« Reply #2287 on: February 03, 2019, 08:52:31 AM »

If both were possible, I think Cs would go with PSOE+Cs, even if Sánchez remained as PM. They might not like it, but I don't think they will have enough strength to take him down.

In fact I wonder if both are possible if PNV would back PSOE+Cs as a "lesser of 2 evils" and/or if UPN (a Navarra unionist party) would back it, splitting from PP

I'd argue Sánchez's biggest threat to him losing power when he could remain would be an internal party coup. I guess that will depend on how the party does after the regional elections.
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Mike88
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« Reply #2288 on: February 03, 2019, 09:05:32 AM »
« Edited: February 03, 2019, 09:10:59 AM by Mike88 »

Yeah, i agree that the 2019 May elections will be critical for Sanchéz permanence in power, but, UP's results may have a big influence now. Electomania, i know they are not a legit pollester, made a poll for the EU elections that shows PP very low, Vox well ahead of UP and PSOE and C's neck and neck.

Could the implosion of UP force Sanchéz to turn to the right in order to please C's voters/politicians and gain their support?
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jaichind
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« Reply #2289 on: February 03, 2019, 10:16:57 AM »

But given C's position on Catalonia would not they prefer PP's hardline position?  Or will PSOE shift to a hardline position on Catalonia to get C onboard since given the assumed implosion of Podemos there will no longer be a need to care about Podemos's position on Catalonia?
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« Reply #2290 on: February 03, 2019, 10:28:44 AM »

But given C's position on Catalonia would not they prefer PP's hardline position?  Or will PSOE shift to a hardline position on Catalonia to get C onboard since given the assumed implosion of Podemos there will no longer be a need to care about Podemos's position on Catalonia?

I don't think PSOE would need to shift, hypothetical negotiations between C's and PSOE would feature some red-lines in that regard. PSOE wouldn't have to change, but their government would have to accept a anti-Catalonia and centralist position.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2291 on: February 05, 2019, 06:31:52 AM »

I would challenge the notion that Pedro Sánchez is a radical leftist, or something. Albert Rivera is far from being a moderate, particularly in what regards the delicate territorial question. PSOE and Cs, with Sánchez and Rivera as leaders, already signed a deal in 2016. I won't say a similar deal is impossible in the near future, but the context (Venezuela crisis, Podemos implosion) favours the reactionary triple alliance.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2292 on: February 05, 2019, 02:02:39 PM »

The trial versus the Catalan separatist leaders starts next week, on Tuesday 12. They are accused of serious offences such as rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds. The trial will have a deep impact in Spanish politics and I'm afraid it's going to poison the already strained environment. To make things even worse, the far right will have a protagonic role. VOX secretary general Javier Ortega Smith will represent the private prosecution. It could be a formidable propagandistic weapon for the Spanish extreme reactionaries. The trial will have as well a huge emotional burden and it will affect the next moves of the Catalan nationalists, conditioned by the rivalry between ERC and the heirs of Convergència. The trial will highlight the role of ERC leader Oriol Junqueras at the expense of Carles Puigdemont. Junqueras is jailed and facing a harsh punishment, while Puigdemont lives comfortably at his Waterloo mansion in his self-enforced Belgian 'exile'.

In this context, the strategy of the Pedro Sánchez government to make a series of symbolic gestures in order to favour dialogue may end in failure if the Catalan separatist parties reject the budget plan. This would lead inevitably to elections (either in May or in autumn) and pave the way to a right wing majority promising to implement a tough policy in Catalonia. The following is worth reading

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/05/inenglish/1549354707_947579.html

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Velasco
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« Reply #2293 on: February 09, 2019, 08:36:00 AM »

Spanish government breaks talks with Catalan separatists

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/08/inenglish/1549635276_414422.html

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Mike88
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« Reply #2294 on: February 10, 2019, 07:53:55 AM »

Mass rally against Sanchéz and for the calling of fresh elections in Madrid, today:


General view of the protest in Madrid.

The number of people in the rally is disputed. The government says 45,000, while organizers say 200,000. Looking at the pictures, i would say something in the middle. The rally was called by PP and C's after Sanchéz deal with the Catalans, that only lasted 3 days. Vox also was present in the rally.

What's the chance of general elections being held in May? Things look quite grim for Sanchéz.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2295 on: February 10, 2019, 07:58:07 AM »
« Edited: February 10, 2019, 08:05:04 AM by tack50 »

Yes, they look very grim. The final nail in the coffin will happen this Wednesday, when the budget is rejected by Congress.

After that who knows. Sánchez might try to simply rule by decrees, there's no alternative majority to oust him. However his rule by decree would become very unpopular very fast I think.

On the other hand elections in May are also a bad option and most PSOE figures reject them in order not to contaminate local elections with national ones. However it might also increase turnout.

In any case, there will be an election this year, the question is if it will happen in May on a "Mega Sunday", or after the Summer. (or less likely in another date, like say June or April)
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Mike88
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« Reply #2296 on: February 10, 2019, 08:12:30 AM »

So, it seems Sanchéz is completely trapped right now. Governing by decree in a parliamentary system is impossible, unless you are a caretaker. And elections, according to all indications, will be nightmare for PSOE. Quite a very difficult situation Spain is in right now.  

Like you said, elections are inevitable. Either it's a "Super Sunday" on May, or, it could be possible, an "Iberian Sunday" with general election in Spain and Portugal on October 6.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2297 on: February 10, 2019, 08:31:47 AM »
« Edited: February 10, 2019, 08:35:59 AM by tack50 »

Keep in mind that Sánchez has already been ruling by decree for the most part, his government has been extremely ineffective.

The Spanish government does have the right to unilaterally pass decrees, though they must go to Congress after 1 month at most to be accepted or retracted.

And Congress forcing decree retragting is extremely rare. Since 1977 it has happened only 4 times (though 2 have been on this parliamentary term alone).

It would be unpopular, sets a bad precedent and might offer legal challenges, but rule by decree is an option. It's not like the opposition could pass a no confidence vote either (PP+Cs are short by 7; they could get CC's lonely MP, but they still need 6 more and there are no more real viable partners)

I do think Sánchez will eventually call an election for October at the latest, but that's still 8 months from now.

And the election won't be necesarily bad for PSOE itself, they are looking at being the largest party (narrowly) and rising slightly above their dysmal 2016 results. The problem is for the left at large, and especially for Podemos.  A PP-Cs-Vox majority looks almost certain, and even if it didn't add up the most likely result would be a repeat election, not another minority Sánchez government.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2298 on: February 11, 2019, 03:19:32 AM »
« Edited: February 11, 2019, 05:55:09 AM by Velasco »

I think there is some consensus on the right wing demonstration that took place in Madrid yesterday. It's been a failure or an underperformance for the reactionary tripartite. In the picture below you can spot Vox leader Santiago Abascal (bearded man 3rd from the left), Javier Maroto (a gay member of PP standing besides a homophobe), PP leader Pablo Casado and Cs leader Albert Rivera (right)


https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/11/inenglish/1549869663_014812.html

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BBC News: "Madrid mass protest over talks policy"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47190135


In my opinion Pablo Casado has reached intolerable levels of rhetoric agresiveness, launching a lot of fallacious arguments (for instance PP leader claims that Pedro Sánchez accepted the 21 demands of a letter the Catalan premier sent to him, which is false). Casado appeals to the lowest instincts and shows a reckless disregard of truth in a desperate attempt to contain the losses to Vox. The far right party is conditioning the PP discourse and setting the agenda. This is not a good thing for the conservatives, neither for the country. Among the many insults and hyperboles, I have read "stab in the back". If you are familiar to German history (a hundred years ago), you'll now what I'm talking about. The Spanish Right is reactionary. On the ither hand, it's remarkable that Albert Rivera is in the same picture as Santiago Abascal; the equivalent of Macron and Le Pen attending the same demonstration in Paris.  There is a reason why Rivera has no issue with that anymore: Venezuela.  I think Cs leader can no longer sustain that he is a moderate centrist.

The situation of the Pedro Sánchez government is dire. Even though Sánchez saved the day and is still alive (maybe his "Survival Handbook" explains how), he might be tempted to call elections in May, putting all eggs in one basket. The ball is in the court of Catalan separatist parties. Passing the buget means some economic relief and much needed investments in Catalonia. Voting against could be paving the way for the right wing parties and their iron pills: indefinite suspension of regional autonomy and implementation of a state of emergency in Catalonia (probably unconstitutional measures). The trial of the Catalan separatist leaders is around the corner and this makes things terribly complicated. Spanish labyrinth, more than ever

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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2299 on: February 11, 2019, 08:05:04 AM »

Speaking of elections, PM Sánchez has threatened the secessionists with a snap election for the 14th of April if they refuse to pass his budget.

If he were to call it, he would call it some time next week (by law there have to be 54 days between an election being called and the actual election date).

I don't think the secessionists will cave, so let's see if the threat actually materializes or not. There's also the possibility of a Super Sunday but the PSOE leadership doesn't want that.

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/02/11/5c615eeefdddffd78c8b45de.html
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