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April 19, 2019, 08:09:46 pm
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  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Keyboard Jacobinism)
  Spanish elections and politics
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 271538 times)
Mike88
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« Reply #2300 on: February 10, 2019, 08:12:30 am »

So, it seems Sanchéz is completely trapped right now. Governing by decree in a parliamentary system is impossible, unless you are a caretaker. And elections, according to all indications, will be nightmare for PSOE. Quite a very difficult situation Spain is in right now.  

Like you said, elections are inevitable. Either it's a "Super Sunday" on May, or, it could be possible, an "Iberian Sunday" with general election in Spain and Portugal on October 6.
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tack50
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« Reply #2301 on: February 10, 2019, 08:31:47 am »
« Edited: February 10, 2019, 08:35:59 am by tack50 »

Keep in mind that Sánchez has already been ruling by decree for the most part, his government has been extremely ineffective.

The Spanish government does have the right to unilaterally pass decrees, though they must go to Congress after 1 month at most to be accepted or retracted.

And Congress forcing decree retragting is extremely rare. Since 1977 it has happened only 4 times (though 2 have been on this parliamentary term alone).

It would be unpopular, sets a bad precedent and might offer legal challenges, but rule by decree is an option. It's not like the opposition could pass a no confidence vote either (PP+Cs are short by 7; they could get CC's lonely MP, but they still need 6 more and there are no more real viable partners)

I do think Sánchez will eventually call an election for October at the latest, but that's still 8 months from now.

And the election won't be necesarily bad for PSOE itself, they are looking at being the largest party (narrowly) and rising slightly above their dysmal 2016 results. The problem is for the left at large, and especially for Podemos.  A PP-Cs-Vox majority looks almost certain, and even if it didn't add up the most likely result would be a repeat election, not another minority Sánchez government.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2302 on: February 11, 2019, 03:19:32 am »
« Edited: February 11, 2019, 05:55:09 am by Velasco »

I think there is some consensus on the right wing demonstration that took place in Madrid yesterday. It's been a failure or an underperformance for the reactionary tripartite. In the picture below you can spot Vox leader Santiago Abascal (bearded man 3rd from the left), Javier Maroto (a gay member of PP standing besides a homophobe), PP leader Pablo Casado and Cs leader Albert Rivera (right)

Img

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/11/inenglish/1549869663_014812.html

Quote
The leaders of three of Spain’s right wing parties managed to bring out tens of thousands of people on Sunday to Madrid’s central Colón square, to protest against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and demand that the Socialist Party (PSOE) politician call elections as soon as possible.

The conservative Popular Party (PP), center-right group Ciudadanos (Citizens) and far-right newcomer Vox attracted flag-waving crowds of 45,000 people, according to the central government delegate in the Spanish capital, although the organizers put the figure as high as 200,000.

The manifesto that had been agreed between the three groups accused the prime minister of having “betrayed” Spain by accepting 21 demands of pro-independence groups in the northeastern Spanish region of Catalonia. That is despite the fact that the central government last week broke off negotiations with the pro-secessionist groups due to their demands ahead of planned cross-party talks to address the issue of the ongoing independence drive.

BBC News: "Madrid mass protest over talks policy"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47190135


In my opinion Pablo Casado has reached intolerable levels of rhetoric agresiveness, launching a lot of fallacious arguments (for instance PP leader claims that Pedro Sánchez accepted the 21 demands of a letter the Catalan premier sent to him, which is false). Casado appeals to the lowest instincts and shows a reckless disregard of truth in a desperate attempt to contain the losses to Vox. The far right party is conditioning the PP discourse and setting the agenda. This is not a good thing for the conservatives, neither for the country. Among the many insults and hyperboles, I have read "stab in the back". If you are familiar to German history (a hundred years ago), you'll now what I'm talking about. The Spanish Right is reactionary. On the ither hand, it's remarkable that Albert Rivera is in the same picture as Santiago Abascal; the equivalent of Macron and Le Pen attending the same demonstration in Paris.  There is a reason why Rivera has no issue with that anymore: Venezuela.  I think Cs leader can no longer sustain that he is a moderate centrist.

The situation of the Pedro Sánchez government is dire. Even though Sánchez saved the day and is still alive (maybe his "Survival Handbook" explains how), he might be tempted to call elections in May, putting all eggs in one basket. The ball is in the court of Catalan separatist parties. Passing the buget means some economic relief and much needed investments in Catalonia. Voting against could be paving the way for the right wing parties and their iron pills: indefinite suspension of regional autonomy and implementation of a state of emergency in Catalonia (probably unconstitutional measures). The trial of the Catalan separatist leaders is around the corner and this makes things terribly complicated. Spanish labyrinth, more than ever

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tack50
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« Reply #2303 on: February 11, 2019, 08:05:04 am »

Speaking of elections, PM Sánchez has threatened the secessionists with a snap election for the 14th of April if they refuse to pass his budget.

If he were to call it, he would call it some time next week (by law there have to be 54 days between an election being called and the actual election date).

I don't think the secessionists will cave, so let's see if the threat actually materializes or not. There's also the possibility of a Super Sunday but the PSOE leadership doesn't want that.

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/02/11/5c615eeefdddffd78c8b45de.html
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tack50
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« Reply #2304 on: February 12, 2019, 10:22:10 am »

The trial against the Catalan politicians in prison has begun today.

The Corporació Catalana de Mitjans Audiovisuals (CCMA); the regional government owned TV and Radio broadcaster in Catalonia, has released a very interesting guide to the trial in English, detailing who exactly are the accused, the accusation, the judges and the prosecutors; what the accusations are; how the trial will proceed and how we got here in the first place

https://www.ccma.cat/324/keys-catalan-independence-trial/

This is an extremely valuable resource, even if the information is probably biased. CCMA/TV3 is owned by the Catalan government and has been repeatedly accused of misinformation and manipulation of facts.
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