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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 288570 times)
Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« on: February 11, 2015, 03:13:42 pm »
« edited: February 11, 2015, 03:29:36 pm by Nanwe »

Pedro Sánchez has dismissed Tomás Gómez, leader and candidate of the Socialist Party in Madrid:

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/02/11/madrid/1423647485_897542.html

The only thing I'm going to say is that I'm behind that.

Good riddance, indeed.

That been said, since PSOE militants have stormed into Ferraz accusing Sánchez of being a PP submarine and a dictator and with Gomez threatening to take the affair to court.... Well this is not turning exactly into a victory for him. In fact, it could be his political death, if he doesn't do something right before the next elections, although it also depends on Díaz's performance in the Andalucian elections (lacklustre or very lacklustre)
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2015, 04:31:56 am »

(Thanks Velasco, I will try, although I'm busy at the moment with my thesis about the French 4th Republic)

Have you seen El País' latest poll? It only took them one day for the PSOE to dismiss Gomez and El Pais has a "poll" showing how much that has benefited the party (with a crazy polling result for C's). Either the most BS poll ever or the most efficient polling system in history. I'm inclined towards the former.

And I used to take Metroscopia as a serious pollster... Now it's the worst, not even La Razón's polls are so bad.
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2015, 09:04:58 am »

Yes, Metroscopia is officially a joke.

The PSOE is in the way to "PASOKization", not because of the dismissal of Tomás Gómez (he was a horrible candidate and person whom I have been fighting against since last year), but because this decision comes late and, like Dani's said, has been handled clumsily. Now, expect Gómez to keep salendering Pedro Sánchez every day in the media.

César Luena has said that Gómez was dismissed yestarday for "internal instability" reasons. I've talked to many people in the PSM and they tell me that the main reason was because of problems in some towns like Aranjuez, Leganés and, specially, Parla, but also because some people had been reporting that the PSM has been buying votes since Gómez lost in 2011, and that includes me; but Gómez hasn't been dismissed because of my report, no; sources tell me that militants of the PSOE in Valdemoro (a town in Southern Madrid) are to praise for the dismissal of Gómez (and I was the person who encouraged those militants to report Tongue): their appeal to the PSOE caused a investigation file to be opened against Gómez.

So, Parla, Valdemoro, Aranjuez, Tram and Leganés seem to be the reasons of the decision taken by Pedro Sánchez.

Back when I lived in Alcalá (and where my parents live), Gomez is particularly disliked, his lovely tendency towards destruction of any independent thought within the PSM resulted in the destruction of a joint UPyD-PSOE effort to dislodge Bello from the city's mayoralty and the PP alongside it. Sadly Gomez killed it. Not only that, but somehow -but sadly i don't know the specifics, Bello was capable of furthering his majority by adding to the PP the whackos of España200 and IU.

In any case, looking at the polls in and outside the Corredor del Henares, the PSM is going down, Podemos is capturing its left-wing vote, UPyD and C's can and will from its right and in the meanwhile, voting (I'd say) is less solidified in the CAM than in other regions. Of course if Rajoy picks Aguirre as candidate for mayor of Madrid, things might still change a lot.

As for Andalucia. Andalucia, as Politikon neatly puts it, is where the worst vices of the PSOE show up, understandably, and the fact that the PSOE has become so rooted there because it's been wiped out elsewhere is no good for the party. Soon enough, PSOE might have to rename itself Partido Regionalista Socialista (Extremeño-)Andaluz
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2015, 09:01:54 am »

What kind off cooperations might we see after the elections?!  PSOE+IU+Podemos and PP+C's?!

The issue with this is that essentially all (or most) polls are bogus. Now besides that, it's impossible to say, there has not been such kind of parliamentary instability predicted by the polls in Spain since the Second Republic, so there's literally no proper historical precedent (those who remember the IIa and are alive were children at the time most likely) of a situation like this in Spain. Which shows in the fact, that even if we pretend that polls aren't being cooked up maliciously, pollsters don't quite know what to do.

Asking what'll happen at the moment is like asking someone to look into some kind of crystal ball to see the future. Someone could say something, but it'd be either very obvious or very bogus.
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2015, 06:01:07 am »

Note: This is not a poll. This is the prediction that Electomanía (a online group of so-called electoral experts) and its users have made for the Andalucian elections. I think it's relatively spot on.

Image Link
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2015, 08:41:31 am »

Time for Metroscopia's poll. And copying Velasco's style.


General election:

Metroscopia / El País

Podemos 22.5%, PSOE 20.2%, PP 18.6%, C's 18.4%, IU 5.6%, UPyD 3.6%, Others 11.1%
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2015, 01:23:16 am »

Wow. That poll is ... Something.

If the PP are savaged in May, could Rajoy be forced out by the caucus and replaced with a more palatable candudate?

Also should andulacia be its own thread?

Don't trust Metroscopia's polls. Essentially PSOE is not higher than PP, and C's is not that high, and most likely the PP is still first party with 23-27% of the vote. And if the PP loses it's likely that Rajoy will resign but he won't be forced out, after more than a decade at tht helm of the PP and having survived the 2008 challenge, his control of the party is pretty much absolute with the exception of Esperanza Aguirre.
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2015, 10:56:18 am »
« Edited: March 09, 2015, 11:08:04 am by Nanwe »

I was also shocked by your post implying above that Rajoy himself controls who gets to be lead candidate in the regions. That doesn't seem like very healthy party democracy.

And even crooked polls can be self-fulfilling prophecies.

There's no implying. In the PP there's no internal democracy, Rajoy meets with his trusted people and decides. It's a digital system, the leader picks with his finger. Not even façade primaries, like in the PSOE.

Look, in Spanish politics there's a big phantom, that of the UCD. A party torn apart by internal disputes that led to its electoral disintegration (unlike most parties where it's the other way around), the UCD was a centre-left-to-centre-right  party (as I'm sure you know) with its organised currents and families vying for control under the long shadow of Suárez only waiting for him to grow weak to try and take over. The result was abysmal for the party and the Spanish's right: forced into opposition due to its lack of strength for 14 long years. And again whenever there were signs of weakness (like AP's lackluster results in 1986 and the ensuing crisis), the right has almost collapsed due to internal fights. There's a reason Aznar first and then Rajoy have followed a policy of total and absolute control over their party. The fact that one, one deputy out of 186 would vote against a law from his own government about abortion resulted in a considerable media frenzy. There are no defectors in the party, everyone always insists that the party is always united, one mind, one party. And of course that mind is controlled by the party leader, who leads the party balancing the pro-Rajoy factions within and slowly excluding the anti-Rajoyists from any important position. Aznar did similarly.

But Velasco is right, perhaps the PP will throw him out, although I doubt it, I think he'll resign anyway. If I'm wrong, I'll invite Velasco for drinks.
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #8 on: March 10, 2015, 01:15:05 pm »

But Velasco is right, perhaps the PP will throw him out, although I doubt it, I think he'll resign anyway. If I'm wrong, I'll invite Velasco for drinks.

I only say that falling from absolute majority to a third place must imply necessarily a rebelion among territorial 'barons' and cadres. Anyway you are probably right; in that fictional scenario Rajoy could lead the way by resigning. Mariano should never have left Pontevedra. On the other hand, you gave a good explanation on how PP works internally Wink

Ah ok ok, but still, the drink offer is in place, although the difficult part would be how to do it, since I only go to Spain for Christmas, summer and (not always) either Carnival or Holy Week. And thanks, but the system is relatively easy, how could I get it wrong Tongue
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2015, 07:38:25 am »

Since it's election day, a brief recap of all the Spanish parties today:

Image Link
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Nanwe
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E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2015, 02:48:23 pm »

Does it actually matter which party has a plurality of seats in a given municipality? isn't it all about who can form a coalition? If PP has the largest number of seats, what happens if PSOE, Podemos and other leftwing parties have a majority?

Yes. In case that no party or coalition of parties get a majority, the party with the largest number of seats gets the mayoralty. If PP gets a plurality of seats in the city of Madrid only a coalition of parties with a majority in the council can elect another mayor. In regional assemblies candidates need a majority to pass the investiture in the first vote.
In 1989, third-placed CDS got Madrid's mayoralty with PP's support.

Exactly, PP and PSOE made a deal to govern together, hence having the absolute majority. he condition was that Rodríguez Sahagún had to be the mayor. Btw, this deal was a big reason why CDS collapsed.
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2015, 02:15:19 am »

The PP loses the absholute majority in CyL, they'll probably govern nonetheless since for the left to govern it'd require PSOE+Podemos+C's+IU+UPL. That being said, the fact that the PP lost the majority in Spain's most rural and conservative region (maybe also La Rioja?) is very telling of the electoral catastrophe of the PP.
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2015, 03:46:07 am »
« Edited: May 25, 2015, 03:58:31 am by Nanwe »

And Velasco, no I didn't vote, it is far too complicated to vote from abraod these days. You have to register ahead, which means a 2 1/2 hour journey with the right papers to Amsterdam by train (20 euros or so), plus paying a fee and then sending it and provided I get all the stuff. So I didn't bother. I will for the general ones though.

As for tonight, it is pretty much amazing. The results imply that the PP has lost every single majority, including such conservative bastions as Murcia, La Rioja or Castilla y León. Although in all these three, a broad - and potentially unstable - anti-pepero coalitions would have to be created since the party is 1 or 2 seats away from the majority in those three regions. But still it's amazing.

In my home town of Valladolid, de la Riva might lose the government, the PP's support in the real capital of Spain has gone down from 52% to 35%, and a PSOE-IU-Podemos alliance could give the city to the left for the first time since the early 1980s. And while de la Riva is a pretty competent mayor, he is however an asshole, a misogynist and talks too much. In my other home town, Alcalá de Henares, Madrid's third largest city, the PP has lost its absolute majority, and not even the unholy pact with España 2000 will it be able to continue governing like it did in 2011.

Interestingly also in Madrid, in Torrejón de Ardoz, the PP retains its absolute majority with with 52% of the vote, but it is understandable, in 2011 it obtained a 70% majority, and it won a minority for the first time ever in 2007. From what I understand the previous IU-PSOE coalitions that ruled the city from 1979 to 2007 were not just corrupt but incredibly inefficient, useless and incompetent. And even communist friends of mine admit that they wouldn't mind a PP like Torrejon's governing, because they have done a very good job, which explains why that majority has withstood today's electoral tsunami.


Also, if let's there's anti-PP coalitions everywhere (far from certain tho), it would mean that in all CCAA save Galicia, a party other than the PP will govern, this is going to create for the remainder of the year a tremendous conflict between the central government and the regions. Because the PP may have an absolute majority in Congress but if the CCAA are unwilling to implement the laws it will become very hard to govern. Either that or the PP has to accommodate t


The effects of Cospedal's gerrymandering:

Image Link
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #13 on: May 25, 2015, 05:54:01 am »
« Edited: May 25, 2015, 05:55:41 am by Nanwe »

Nanwe, did you know that Esperanza Aguirre and Dolores de Cospedal lacked of a platform until the very end of the campaign? Finally Aguirre drafted a 10 point leaflet: hilarious.

I knew about Aguirre, not Cospedal though. I remember her defence of that was saying that 'no one reads them anyway'. Which may be true, but you cannot pretend to win an election without at least giving the citizens the possibility of knowing what you are going to do, or promising to do at any rate. It is ridiculous.

In any case, what were they going to promise? End corruption? End cuts? Stability, arrogance and continuance were the only things they could offer, and voters wanted none of that, and both were smart enough to know it. So why bother? Especially in Aguirre's case, it was better to run a personalist campaign.

This morning Aguirre's campaign has been called "arrogant" and "disastrous", even by conservative analysts like Javier Zarzalejos (a very smart man, on the other hand).

That's so evident that even the President of FAES had to see it. No programme, gaffes that not even her popularity could fix, and ridiculous attacks on a former judge by being far too over-aggressive on the debates. What a shameful campaign.

Both Aguirre and Cospedal deserved their defeats, as well Rita Barberá and León de la Riva (he's indeed an asshole).

I don't think De la riva deserved to lose on a management level, Valladolid is a fairly well-run city overall, much better than most towns in Madrid, at least from what I see and compare, but from a political level he does, plus 24 years or so governing is too long. The only bright spot is that despite being such a misogynist, he was against the PP's reform of abortion, probably because he's a gynaecologist. Or when he appointed Spain's first city councillor with Down's syndrome two years ago.

All of them deserve their defeat, the only half-likeable PP baron is Feijóo, and he wasn't up to election anyway. Everyone else ran stupid campaigns, while the PSOE tried to hide its name in its campaign and highlighting the personal side of the candidates, which I think will lead to further inner struggle. Although this has reinforced Sánchez' position within the party. I would say.

Podemos and C's (the latter taking advantage of the gap opened by the former) are relevant national actors now, but they can't say their victory is complete. From now on, they'll have to negotiate and reach compromises. Things are going to be much more interesting. In what regards coalitions or governability agreements, nothing is certain. However, Podemos people said that in neither case they were going to let PP govern if it was depending on them.

Indeed, and we'll see if they don't crush and burn because of getting into the meddlesome and dirty world of practical politics in parliament. The CAM is particularly interesting, either a PP minority with support from C's through abstaining or a left-wing shaky government backed up by C's too. And in the meantime, if the former happens, then there'd be a left-wing mayor in Madrid (50-60% of CAM's pop.) to a right-wing (even if a fairly moderate one like Cifuentes) government in Puerta del Sol.

This article is fairly interesting (in Spanish): El resultado abre una brecha generacional en el PP de Raoy
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #14 on: May 25, 2015, 06:32:35 am »

Europa Press just released some fancy graphics, which I think are quite informative:

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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #15 on: May 25, 2015, 04:14:50 pm »

Gosh the Balearics are a mess. What an earth is going on there?

Some of the parties are Balearic regionalists, others are island-specific. It's pretty weird. Plus Catalan nationalists coexist with Podemos outfit and IU.
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2015, 01:50:47 pm »

This is all very fun. I have a few questions though:

What are C's opinions towards non-separatist regionalists and nationalists (CC, PAR, PRC) or are they still opposed to further devolution?

I guess that since all these three parties are relatively centrist and 'pragmatic' (as in give power and money and I'll support you), I guess they'll apply the same conditions they told the PP to follow regarding internal accountability and some such. But they haven't made a fuss about it in general. I guess Velasco may have looked into the particular policies of C's in Cantabria, Aragón and the Canary Islands, but I cannot say much more.

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Most likely, as you can see from their very diminished electoral results.

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Well there's the Basque-speaking and the Spanish-speaking divide in the region and within each, there are right-wing and left-wing forces. So for instance in the Basque-speaking community, G-Bai, the PNV's brand of sorts in Navarra, they could be the right (even if they are vaguely centre-left) while Bildu is obviously the left. Then for the Spanish part, UPN used to be in a coalition with the PP, but it broke down so now both run against each other to obtain the right-wing vote of the Spanish speakers. And then there's the PSOE. The 'radical' left of Podemos and of IU tend to cross the linguistic border from what I understand.
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #17 on: May 27, 2015, 06:07:58 am »

Mucho has tardado Wink


Anyway, I decided to take a look at the Balearic Islands' political scenario:

So, looking into the minor parties (let's ignore self-evident ones like PSOE, PP, C's or Podemos)

Més per Mallorca: Union of left-wing nationalist forces, associated to political Catalanism, including a former faction of IU in the Islands that split from the main party. It's a coalition of Partit Socialista de Mallorca, Entesa per Mallorca, Iniciativa Verds and Bloc per Felanitx.

Proposta per les Illes (PI)Sad Centre-right regionalist party, founded by former PP and UM (former regionalist centre-to-centre-right party, extremely corrupt) members.

MpM: Similar to Més per Mallorca, but for Minorca.

GxF: Similar to Més and MpM but for Formentera.
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2015, 03:36:03 am »

Instead of working on my thesis I did this:

Taken from here.

The elections of the past May 24th have ended the absolute majorities in the autonomic Parliaments. The division of power, and of seats, has opened a complex process of negotiations. The common elements in every autonomy is that an absolute majority is necessary in the first round [of investiture votes]. In the second round, it is sufficient to obtain more 'yes'es than 'no'es, hence abstention plays a fundamental role, except in Castilla-La Mancha, where in the -unlikely- case of there not being an agreement, the most voted list governs, in this case the PP of Dolores de Cospedal.

Madrid

In Madrid only the populares of Cristina Cifuentes, with 48 parliamentarians, and Ciudadanos, which has 17, can reach an absolute majority, fixed at 65 parliamentarians. A pact between the socialist Ángel Gabilondo and Podemos' candidate, José Manuel López, which would stand on the edge of power, with 64 seats. In order to supplant the PP, which governs Madrid since 1995, the hypothetical scenario would be an agreement between PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos.

The PP's candidate, Cristina Cifuentes will meet next Monday, the 25th, with the heads of the list of Ciudadanos, Ignacio Aguada and of Podemos, José Manuel López. Cifuentes also hopes to also meet with the PSOE's candidate, Ángel Gabilondo, although for this meeting there is no date yet.

Castilla-La Mancha

The socialist Emiliano García-Page (14 deputies) has the possibility of supplanting the Government of María Dolores de Cospedal, maybe the most emblematic of the PP, but it requires the supports of the three seats of Podemos, who, however has not guaranteed their support. Cospedal obtained on Sunday 16 seats, one less than the necessary ones to reach the absolute majority.

García-Page and the leader of Podemos, José García Molina, have already spoken on the phone to negotiate the support of the new party to a socialist Government. The regional secretary of Podemos and elected deputy, José García Molina, has hoped that an agreement with the PSOE will be reached "as soon as possible".

Extremadura

The socialist Guillermo Fernández-Vara (30 deputies) won the elections against José Antonio Monago (28) in Extremadura. In order to reach the absolute majority (33 seats), he will need the support of the autonomic leader of Podemos, Álvaro Jaén, who obtained 6 parliamentarians. In the meantime until a decision is reached, it is known that both have a cordial relationship from even before the local and regional elections. The sum of PP and Ciudadanos, which has one autonomic deputy, would not be enough in this community to be able to govern with stability.

The leader of Extremadura's socialists has already spoken on the phone with Podemos and Ciudadanos, in a 'polite conversation' and instends to meet this week although the exact date is yet to be confirmed.

Asturias

In the Principality of Asturias, the sum of PSOE, led by Javier Fernández (14), and Podemos, whose head of list is Emilio León (nine seats) would reach the absolute majority, fixed at 23 seats. This majority would not be reached by a pact between PSOE and Izquierda Unida (5 seats).

The sum of PP (11), Ciudadanos (3) and Foro Asturias (3), the party founded by Francisco Álvarez-Cascos, ads up to 17 parliamentarians.

The president of the PP of Asturias, Mercedes Fernández, has asked Ciudadanos and Foro Asturias their support for her election as president of the Principality. Fernñandez has manifested that she has already held talks to obtain these supports that the president of Foro Asturias, Cristina Coto, has already denied.

Aragón

The parliamentay arithmetic will be even more difficult for socialist Javier Lambán in Aragón, as the Podemos candidate, Pablo Echenique, has already warned him that he also wants to be president and he feels legitimised since he was only one percentage point away from the PSOE's result. In order to supplant Luisa Fernanda Rudi, winners of the elections, requires a pact between PSOE (18 deputies), Podemos (14) and the Chunta Aragonesista (2).

Echenique is yet to set his conditions to the PSOE, but at the very least, they will revolve around the fight against corruption, fiscal proposals and evictions.

The sum of the populares of the incumbent president, Luisa Fernanda Rudi, Ciudadanos and the PAR reach 31 seats, not enough to govern.

Echenique has stated that there have been no contacts yet with Javier Lambán and that to the question as to whether he would stand as candidate to preside Aragón, he has insisted that "at the present moment, I haven't ruled out anything".

Comunidad Valenciana

In order to expel the PP in the Comunidad Valencia requires an agreement between, at least, three parties PSOE (23), Compromís (19) and Podemos (13). They all agree in the need to establish a left-wing programme but the candidates of PSPV-PSOE and of Compromís both maintain their desire to preside the Generalitat.

The sum of seats of PP (31) y Ciudadanos (13) would not reach the absolute majority to govern, which is fixed at 50 deputies.

The secretary of Podemos, Antonio Montiel, is to meet , next Monday, at 10.30, the general secretary of the PSPV, Ximo Puig, as well as Compromís' candidate, Mónica Oltra, to deal with the future Valencian Government "in a three-way meeting".

Navarra

Geroa Bai, led by Uxue Barkos, has obtained nine seats of the 50 that Navarra's parliament has. It could count on the support of EH Bildu ( 8 ) and of Izquierda-Ezkerra (2) but the sum of all three doesn't reach the absolute majority, set at 26 seats. Pablo Iglesias said that Podemos would not pact with Bildu if it didn't condemn ETA's violence. Now they are the key to allow a change in Government.

The other three parties with parliamentary representation, PP, PSOE and the winner UPN don't have the sufficient majority to prevent this change and would not support any agreement hcih requires siding with Bildu.

Geroa Bai and Izquierda-Ezkerra have agreed to work for a "pragmatic accord" in an hour-long meeting held in the Navarrese Parliament.

Baleares

The parliamentary panorama is formed by eight parties. The PP suffered an important loss and obtained twenty seats. The socialist listed obtained 14 and the sum of the latter with Podemos (10) doesn't reach the 30 seats required for an absolute majority. The nationalists of Més per Mallorca and Més per Minorca obtained six and three seats each. The regionalist split of the PP, PI, enters with three deputies, while Ciudadanos obtained 2 and the Grupo por Formentera (GxF) obtained one.

Negotiations will be complex in the Balearic Islands for the socialist Francina Armengol, who has announced she will held talks with Podemos and MÉS for a left-wing government.

Castilla y León

The PP's list obtained 42 seats, one seat away from the absolute majority. The PSOE reached 25. Podemos entered into the autonomic Parliament with 10 seats and Ciudadanos, with five. Meanwhile IU and Leonese People's Union (UPL), obtained one seat each.

The only contact known to have taken place is the one held between the federal coordinator of IU, Cayo Lara on the phone with the federal secretary of the PSOE, Pedro Sánchez. The socialists of Castilla y León have not set any kind of 'red line' to negotiate.

La Rioja

The PP also lost the absolute majority in La Rioja, as it only obtained 15 seats in a Parliament of 33. The rest of seats are distributed between PSOE (10), Ciudadanos (4) and Podemos (4).

Sanz, who has been in power for the last 20 years, would have to reach an agreement with Ciudadanos if it wants to obtain an absolute majority. A potential agreement between PSOE and Podemos would not suffice. There haven't been any talks yet.

Murcia

The PP won in Murcia with 22 deputies, one below the 23 required for an absolute majority. PSOE obtained 13 and Podemos six. Ciudadanos got four deputies.

The PP's candidate, Pedo Antonio Sánchez, has not ruled out anything about possible pacts and has extended the offer to negotiate to all parties. "If there is no statesmanship, if governability is not guaranteed, we will have to hold elections again" he has warned. No talks have held yet.

Cantabria

In Cantabria, no party reached the 18 seats needed for an absolute majority. Ignacio Diego's PP reached 13 seats, Miguel Ángel Revilla's PRC got 12 seats and the PSOE of Rosa Eva Díez obtained six. Hence, the three deputies of Podemos or the two of Ciudadanos are they key. The leaders of PRC and of Podemos already held on Wednesday a first meeting to know each other but without dealing with any possible pact of the conditions of the purple party to facilitate a Government led by the regionalist Miguel Ángel Revilla. According to Podemos, the conditions will not be presented only to Revilla and, if Ignacio Diego, also wants to know them, "he'll have them there".

Canarias

In the Canary Islands, the CC-PNC obtained 18 out of 60 seats. The PSOE obtained 15 seats; PP obtained 12; Podemos, 7; Nueva Canarias, 5 and Agricupación Socialista de Gomera (ASG), three.

Coalición Canaria (CC) and PSOE have started today, Thursday the round of negotiations to reach a government pact in the Canary Islands.
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Nanwe
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2015, 07:45:25 am »

CyL spokesperson just demanded the resignation of Industry minister Soria. WTF, one defeat and Spain's most monolithic party seems to be collapsing before our very eyes.
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Nanwe
Full Member
***
Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #20 on: May 29, 2015, 07:55:16 am »
« Edited: May 29, 2015, 07:58:20 am by Nanwe »

If I remember correctly, Wert wants to be Spain's ambassador to the OECD so that gives the perfect excuse for a reshuffle, maybe Montoro will follow suit. That being said, rumour has it that Cospedal will obtain the Education ministry, as a 'honorary' retirement from her post as General Secretary of the PP.

Well yes, but among other amazing things regarding the CyL spokesperson is that he said, that personally, were he to support someone for the mayoralty of Valladolid it would be the candidate from Valladolid toma la Palabra (IU), Saravia, over both the PP and the PSOE candidates. In any case, De La Riva was just indicted for delaying a judicial decision over removing a fence in his Valladolid attic for over a decade, and he won't be able to even be city councilor for the nest 13 months or so. It's all going down so fast, I don't think I had ever checked El Norte de Castilla so often as this week.

EDIT: He just announced he will challenge the decision and that he will remain as mayor en funciones until the 13th until the plenary session of the new city council meets. He also points out he has not been indicted for corruption, I guess that's the only good thing of it, he's not corrupt. Even if his government has been signing contracts until 2019 when they have no right to do it as a caretaker government. Oh and, like in Madrid and every other major city waiting turnover I bet they are burning/shredding more paper than our cities' garbage disposal service can take on.
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Nanwe
Full Member
***
Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #21 on: June 09, 2015, 08:41:47 am »

Historic overview:

So, I got bored and I did the results of the local elections and the regional elections since the start of democracy in Spain. It was an easy affair, it is all very static. There are some things going on under the map that aren't seen because it only shows the most voted party for each government, which is not necessarily the most voted party within a region or the party that holds the post of President/Premier/Lehendakari or whatever. That is especially important for the Canary Islands, where the CC has a policy of either picking PP or PSOE as their junior partners depending on the term but themselves being on top. I might refine the map later to differentiate between minority/coalition and absolute majority single-party governments.

The map does not show the occasions when, especially with the CDS, a junior party shifts its support from AP/CP/PP to PSOE or vice versa and hence the executive changes mid-legislature. I'm still trying to find a more nice-looking way of showing it.

Because not all the regional elections happen at the same time (usually Galicia, Basque Country, Catalonia and Andalucia have their own legislative periods), I had to condense it all.

Image Link
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Nanwe
Full Member
***
Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #22 on: July 26, 2015, 04:17:53 am »

Ciudadanos fulmina en dos meses la ley electoral murciana que PP y PSOE no cambiaron en 28 años

So, C's, alongside with Podemos and the PSOE have forced the PP in Murcia to join in reforming the previous 1987 electoral law, replacing the 5 constituencies with a 5% threshold with a single one with a 3% one, hence ensuring greater representativeness. Interesting how easy it was to do, although it is a pity it's still closed list, but something is something. Hopefully other regions will follow suit.
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Nanwe
Full Member
***
Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #23 on: September 27, 2015, 11:21:53 am »
« Edited: September 27, 2015, 11:27:16 am by Nanwe »

Catalonia turnout at 11am at 35% which is 5% above 2012.  Exit polls at 6pm it seems.

Not quite. Exist polls will be at 9 or so, since the electoral colleges close at 8. At 6 we got the second turnout data, a turnout of 63.14%, over 7 pp. higher than in 2012. Apparently higher in traditionally non-nationalist areas.

Image Link
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Nanwe
Full Member
***
Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2015, 07:53:22 am »

Well, Kiko Llaneras has released a poll average. Also showing C's estimation according to Metroscopia, which is just crazy.

Warning: Large image.

Image Link

Acccording to this and most other polls, both C's and Podemos surpass the de facto 15% threshold that usually impedes third parties from gaining a number of seats roughly proportional to their proportion of votes. Therefore, each party will probably gain around 40-50 seats in December, unless things change a lot.
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