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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 269094 times)
Mike88
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« on: September 25, 2016, 01:13:12 pm »

Polls close in Galicia and Pais Vasco. Exit polls released:

Galicia

PP: 38-41 seats
En Marea: 14-16 seats
PSOE: 14 -16 seats
BNG: 5-6 seats
C's: 0-1 seats

Pais Vasco

PNV: 27-30 seats
Bildu: 16-18 seats
UP: 13-15 seats
PSOE: 8-10 seats
PP: 7-8 seats
C's: 0-1 seats
« Last Edit: September 25, 2016, 01:18:11 pm by Mike88 »Logged
Mike88
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2016, 01:56:56 pm »

10% counted in Galicia

PP: 56,6% 47
PSOE: 17,8% 14
En Marea: 12,3% 8
BNG: 7,8% 6
C's: 2,4% 0

Nothing yet from Pais Vasco
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Mike88
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2016, 02:10:27 pm »

24% counted in Galicia:

PP: 53,5% 45
PSOE: 17,8% 13
En Marea: 14,7% 12
BNG: 8,0% 5
C's: 2,7% 0

50% counted in Pais Vasco:

PNV: 37,5% 28
Bildu: 21,5% 17
UP: 14,7% 12
PSOE: 12,2% 9
PP: 10,0% 9
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Mike88
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2016, 02:12:44 pm »

Where are links to results ?

Galicia

http://resultados2016.xunta.gal/11AU/DAU11999CM.htm?lang=gl

Pais Vasco

http://www.euskadielecciones.eus/resultados/indexambito?pAmbito=00000&pModoVisualizacion=1
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Mike88
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2016, 02:18:15 pm »

Looks like PP over-performing exit polls in  Galicia so far

If Vigo, Coruña, Pontevedra and Santiago hold up, yes.
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2016, 02:19:38 pm »

65% counted in Pais Vasco:

PNV: 37,4% 28
Bildu: 21,7% 17
UP: 14,6% 12
PSOE: 12,1% 9
PP: 10,1% 9
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Mike88
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2016, 02:21:53 pm »

40% counted in Galicia

PP: 51,6% 42
PSOE: 18,0% 14
En Marea: 16,0% 12
BNG: 8,1% 6
C's: 2,9% 0

En Marea closing in on PSOE.
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Mike88
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2016, 02:33:23 pm »

56% counted in Galicia:

PP: 49,7% 42
PSOE: 18,1% 14
En Marea: 17,3% 14
BNG: 8,2% 5
C's: 3,1% 0

88% counted in Pais Vasco

PNV: 37,5% 29
Bildu: 21,6% 17
UP: 14,8% 11
PSOE: 12,0% 9
PP: 10,1% 9
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Mike88
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2016, 02:40:35 pm »

65% counted in Galicia

PP: 49,2% 42
En Marea: 17,7% 14
PSOE: 18,1% 13
BNG: 8,3% 6
C's: 3,2% 0

"Sorpasso" in Galicia
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Mike88
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« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2016, 04:20:43 am »

Podemos rips the agreement with the PSOE in Castilla-La Mancha

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/09/26/actualidad/1474878315_387940.html
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Mike88
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2016, 12:59:57 pm »

Spain was doing so well without no government. Just kidding. Wink

Finally, the PSOE gain some good sense. Going to a third election would be suicide.
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Mike88
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2016, 02:07:39 pm »

I do wonder when exactly will Rajoy's leadership of the PP end. Surely he can't go further than this term, right?

With a person as hermetic as Rajoy you can never be sure, but I think his original plan was to be at the head just two terms. Also, the fact that he survives cannot hide that the Popular Party is in need of a comprehensive refurbishment (and not in the style of the  refurbishment of the Génova Street HQs, funded with black money). Maybe Rajoy could try to place a successor in this upcoming legislature, who knows.

Spain was doing so well without no government. Just kidding. Wink

Finally, the PSOE gain some good sense. Going to a third election would be suicide.

Spain was fine. No joke. The hard times are going to begin just now, with the harsh budget cuts demanded by the European Commission. The PP government -otherwise a champion of austerity- failed in the fulfillment of deficit targets, because 2015 was an election year and the government approved certain tax reductions.

I thought that suicide and good sense were antithetical, but it's just me Wink

The "just kidding" was that you cannot be without a government for a very long time. But also because, here in Portugal, we joke that the solution to our dying economy is to have no government at all, just look at Spain. Wink
But you're right, although Spain is growing 3%, one of the strongest showing in Europe, now the EU is going to demand a deficit bellow 3%, it's going to be tough.
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Mike88
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2016, 01:21:55 pm »

Rajoy invested: For: 170 Against: 111 Abs: 68
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Mike88
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« Reply #13 on: March 12, 2017, 08:20:03 am »

Rajoy may have topped "corruption? What does that have the economy?" with this fantastic analogy:

Quote
You have no longer an absolute majority … so the commission will get under way,” Rivera said before suggesting that former treasurers of the PP would have to give evidence to the commission via video link from their cells — likely a reference to Francisco Granados, a top PP official in Madrid, who has given testimony through video conference from prison.

Rajoy responded with a biblical reference, saying it would be better to look to the future “because, if we look back to the past too much, we risk the same fate as Lot’s wife … who turned into a pillar of salt” when she looked back at Sodom.

We should probably restart this thread tbh, as PSOE gets round to choosing a leader and the Catalonia crisis goes on and on.
I agree. Adding to what you said Crabcake, El Mundo newspaper is reporting that Rajoy doesn't have support to approve the budget in Parliament. Rajoy may actually be the luckiest politician in the world currently. If his budget isn't approved, probably another election may have to happen and with the PSOE leadership still very fresh and Podemos is complete civil war, Rajoy and the PP can simply say to the electorate: "they don't present an alternative, they don't let me govern the country. Had enough?".   
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« Reply #14 on: March 12, 2017, 09:06:11 am »

That's true Rogier, although Spanish polls aren't very reliable. But the point i was stretching is that there is no alternative, at the moment, to Mr. Rajoy. Trying to block him could be counterproductive. Remember the 2016 election.

This hole Murcia scandal is what has stained the relations between the PP and C's. The C's wants the current President ousted and a new PP president sworn in or new elections. All of this because of the PP money schemes. If an election is held again in Murcia, polls show there would be a repetition of the 2015 election results.
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Mike88
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« Reply #15 on: March 12, 2017, 01:46:40 pm »

That's true Rogier, although Spanish polls aren't very reliable. But the point i was stretching is that there is no alternative, at the moment, to Mr. Rajoy. Trying to block him could be counterproductive. Remember the 2016 election.

This hole Murcia scandal is what has stained the relations between the PP and C's. The C's wants the current President ousted and a new PP president sworn in or new elections. All of this because of the PP money schemes. If an election is held again in Murcia, polls show there would be a repetition of the 2015 election results.

Do you know who is going to run for the PSOE leadership, apart from Susana Diaz? Is she the favourite?
Pedro Sanchéz, former PSOE leader, and Patxi Lopéz, former president of the Basque Country. At the moment polls are favouring Sanchéz and Lopéz. Susana Diaz is polling in third place, perhaps because she is delaying and delaying her announcement.

But i wouldn't read to much the polls. In 2014 Sanchéz was behind, but close, to Eduardo Madina and he end up winning by more 12 points. It will be an interesting race to watch as two moderate PSOE leaders face Sanchéz who wants an approximation with Podemos.
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Mike88
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« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2017, 02:30:01 pm »

I don't think that later polls indicate that PP is losing ground to C's.

I believe he was referring to the Metroscopia poll from last Saturday, which has the following numbers (compared with the poll from January):

31.2% ( -2.0%) PP
21.5% ( -0.2%) UP
19.0% ( -0.1%) PSOE
16.5% (+1.0%) C's
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Mike88
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« Reply #17 on: March 13, 2017, 05:58:04 pm »

I agree with you on Metroscopia. Comparing with other polling firms, they are overpolling C's and in the past they overpolled heavily the PSOE. I think they were the only pollster to put the PSOE ahead of PP during the 2011-2015 legislature.

Personally i follow 3 polling companies in Spain: Celeste-Tel, NC Report and CIS. For me, these 3 are the most accurate. And speaking of Celeste-Tel, they just released a new poll, and it has completely different results in comparison with Metroscopia:

35.6% (+0.2) 148/150 PP
22.1% (+1.0)     80/83 PSOE
19.3% ( -0.2)     65/66 UP
12.1% (+0.1)     26/28 C's
  2.8%                     10 ERC
  1.6%                       7 PDC
  1.2%                       5 PNV
  0.9%                    2/3 Bildu
  0.3%                       1 CC
  4.1%                          Others

Link.
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Mike88
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« Reply #18 on: March 18, 2017, 11:50:26 am »

DYM poll for the Congress and the PSOE leadership:

Congress:

31.0% PP
20.0% PSOE
19.9% UP
16.2% C's

PSOE leadership:

Img


Congress vote with the different PSOE candidates:

If Lopéz was leader:

29.8% PP
25.2% PSOE
19.8% UP
13.6% C's

If Sanchéz was leader:

29.9% PP
24.5% PSOE
17.8% UP
16.0% C's

If Díaz was leader:

29.7% PP
24.2% UP
18.9% PSOE
15.4% C's

Poll conducted between 7 and 15 March. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of ±3.1%

Link.
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Mike88
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« Reply #19 on: March 19, 2017, 11:43:48 am »

Election projection by Jaime Miquel (political analist):

Vote share:
Img


Seats in Congress:
Img


Link.
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Mike88
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« Reply #20 on: March 19, 2017, 11:47:23 am »

Poll from Invymark to La Sexta:

32.6% PP
21.9% UP
21.0% PSOE
13.4% C's

Link.
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Mike88
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« Reply #21 on: March 20, 2017, 01:58:22 pm »

NC Report poll for La Razón newspaper:

Img


Poll conducted between 13 and 17 March. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.1%

The PP is highly overrated in this poll. This poll has 58.5% turnout... For Spanish levels that's very low and probably not very accurate. But put it in the average.

Link.
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Mike88
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« Reply #22 on: March 20, 2017, 02:18:18 pm »

as "semi-local" mike said, could be an outlier but at some point, i guess, the PP is going to become strong enough cause all other options are more difficult.
Indeed. There are two important political question at the moment. The first is the budget. Spanish media have been saying that negotiations for this year budget are shaky and that Mr Rajoy doesn't know how it's going to end. The other one is the longshoreman crisis. Spain may have to pay a big fine to the EU if it doesn't solve the situation. C's abstained in parliament vote about this and the PP law failed. Don't know if this will have an impact in C's voting numbers. Let's see what happens.
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Mike88
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« Reply #23 on: March 26, 2017, 02:04:38 pm »

Susana Díaz presented today her candidacy for the PSOE leadership. In a rally in Madrid attended by more than 7,000 people and by many high profile PSOE leaders like Felipe Gonzaléz, J R Zapatero and others, Díaz said she wants put the PSOE back in the Spanish government and also achieve reforms and pacts with the PP and refuses that the PSOE should "imitate" Podemos.

Img
« Last Edit: March 26, 2017, 02:13:13 pm by Mike88 »Logged
Mike88
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« Reply #24 on: March 27, 2017, 10:33:55 am »

The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.

Img


Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful. Sad
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