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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 274411 times)
ag
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« on: February 02, 2015, 08:58:51 pm »

If there is a difficulty forming a government, could there be a constitutional role for the King?

One possible outcome of the election results on the current polling is that nobody can form a government, but PP and PSOE could, in principle, agree on a technocratic government. Would Felipe be capable of mediating this sort of an outcome?
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ag
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« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2015, 11:02:31 pm »

Missed this one was today!

Not bad. Happy PSOE held. Hopefully, Podamos remains a one-season wonder.
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ag
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2015, 10:14:57 pm »

PM Mariano Rajoy announced that the Spanish General Election will take place on December 20.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/10/01/actualidad/1443726596_360140.html

¡Finally!
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ag
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« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2016, 03:45:09 pm »

So Puigdemont just ruled out an UDI because the pro-independence forces only got 48% of the votes in September, yet the procés goes on. Apparently because Catalans ought to decide once the Parlament has drafted a constitution or something lol. I really don't get them.

I think the independence movement's momentum is ruined and it will only go downhill from now on for them.

I doubt. It is one of those things that has been around for a long while, and while it may go up and down, it will remain strong.
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ag
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« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2016, 05:08:57 pm »

¡!
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ag
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« Reply #5 on: May 31, 2016, 09:15:29 pm »

a) would be lethal for PSOE, methinks. I mean, this is not the "normal" left/right relationship, where the two traditional parties may join to fight off the upstarts. For many ancestral PSOE people a government with PP would by High Treason.

b) would be too dangerous.

My bet would be on c) or d).
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ag
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« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2016, 12:03:07 pm »

(Bloomberg) -- (Corrects to move reference to final poll in headline) Caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party on track for 116-120 seats in Sunday’s election, according to a Gesop survey published by El Periodic d’Andorra on its website.
PP rises from 114-118 seats in Friday’s poll, down from 123 seats in Dec. 20 election
Podemos set for 83-87 seats vs 71 in December
Socialists on 83-87 seats vs 90
Ciudadanos 38-42 seats vs 40
Poll based on 900 interviews conducted June 22-24

Why not post the link to the Andorreans Smiley?

http://sondeos.elperiodic.ad/quinto-sondeo-elecciones-generales-26j.html
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ag
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« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2016, 10:39:19 am »

Holding fingers crossed for PSOE.
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ag
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« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2016, 01:57:34 pm »

A progressive bloc led by Unidos Podemos may be in a position to govern according to the result of exit poll, Alberto Garzon, leader of United Left, says in televised statement.

On these results it would be an extremely weak government, that would pretty much have to give Catalans their referendum (remember, the third largest leftist group is ERC).
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ag
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« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2016, 04:49:00 pm »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?

I mean, other than being right-wing, PNV these days is not a very good partner for either PP or C. It might ask for things for the Basques that would not be acceptable  for either of the 2 other partners. In any case, so far they are still one seat short.
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ag
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« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2016, 04:52:30 pm »

Frankly, it is hard to see of any majority government here, other than the grand coalition of PP-PSOE. And I have no clue why PSOE would agree to enter such a government.

The only other plausible coalition is PSOE-Podemos-CC: and there are still no reasons to believe it would work any better than before this election.
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ag
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« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2016, 04:57:37 pm »

99.26% counted...looks like it's barely not enough. Who's ready for another round of useless posturing, the impotent Rajoy government staying in power for a few more months, and a third election?

Seems like the most likely outcome.  Even if they get one more seat, the new PNV-reliant government would be very precarious. Rajoy is not known to be a great friend of the Basques.

The only other option would be sending for CDC. But that means referendum.
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ag
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« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2016, 04:59:16 pm »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

>PP
>Basque nationalists

Pick one.

At the very least, Rajoy would have to go for this to work, methinks.
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ag
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« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2016, 04:59:40 pm »

99.48% counted.
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ag
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« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2016, 05:00:57 pm »

I think the pressure on PSOE to abstain in a vote for a PP government would be quite large.  Over time that is the most likely outcome.

Why? Their electorate would be very upset if they do.

For king and country? It is not a very Socialist sentiment Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2016, 05:13:45 pm »



Sure, but C's have been known to negotiate with regional parties in the very recent past (they couldn't get an agreement with PNV in the 2015 government formation, but they did get the Canarians to back them, and that was in an environment where it was understood that the investiture vote would fail). In a scenario where it's either government formation or go back to the polls and risk heavy losses, an agreement between C's and PNV could be hammered out.



Canarians and PNV are extremely different beasts. The fact that C can negotiate with Canarians is not at all indicative of their chances with PNV.

Things that happened in the past, happened in a very different climate. The last few years PP has been emphatically building itself based on being opposed to Basque and Catalan nationalism (and, of course, C has started in opposition to Catalanism as such). Now they would need PNV or CDC - two parties that feel very aggrieved precisely by PP and C. Frankly, I do think abstension from PSOE might be easier to get.
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ag
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« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2016, 05:15:55 pm »

I think the pressure on PSOE to abstain in a vote for a PP government would be quite large.  Over time that is the most likely outcome.

Why? Their electorate would be very upset if they do.

For king and country? It is not a very Socialist sentiment Smiley

PSOE leadership has been always quite monarchic. Furthermore, it's said that king Juan Carlos had a more friendly relationship with Felipe González or Zapatero than with Aznar or Rajoy.


That may be true. But it is one thing to be friendly to HM, and quite another thing to sacrifice your political future for Him. And I cannot see how tolerating this government is not going to make Podemos destroy PSOE next time.
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ag
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« Reply #17 on: June 26, 2016, 05:16:55 pm »


Rajoy and Rivera would both rather have a third general election than a referendum. So that's right out.

True. That is out. But I doubt that PNV will ask for something less unacceptable than a referendum Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #18 on: June 26, 2016, 05:22:55 pm »

There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).
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ag
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« Reply #19 on: June 26, 2016, 05:29:10 pm »

99.91%. No change.

So, all these discussions about PNV being partnerable with PP and C may turn out to be academic. Get your pick of ERC, CDC or EH-Bildu.
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ag
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« Reply #20 on: June 26, 2016, 05:44:51 pm »

There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).

That is not a realistic possibility. PSOE and Podemos could have been tried that possibility after the December elections. Iglesias already proposed that agreement in a singular way and PSOE rejected it. The PSOE's Federal Committee held days after the previous election banned deals with Catalan separatist parties. It's more likely that PP, PSOE and C's start tripartite negotiations. Prospects are uncertain, but they will be pressured to prevent a third election.

Why would they need C in it? They have a majority between the two of them. Why share spoils with C?
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ag
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« Reply #21 on: June 26, 2016, 05:47:29 pm »

99.96%.
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ag
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« Reply #22 on: June 26, 2016, 05:47:58 pm »

Rajoy: “We have won the elections -- we claim the right to govern”

Well, he will govern - till November or December, when the next elections happen.
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ag
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« Reply #23 on: June 26, 2016, 06:02:33 pm »

And why not a minority government like in Ireland, with a sort of pact where the main opposition party abstains on the budget during 2-3 years ?

It could be a minority government, of course. But that pretty much means a PP/C coalition with PSOE on the outside. And that is exactly feasibility of what we have been discussing here. Still, it is far from clear that PSOE would abstain.
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ag
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« Reply #24 on: June 26, 2016, 06:04:44 pm »

I still think a technocrat ia most likely. That way Rajoy can still control PP for embezzlement purposes and C's/PSOE don't get roasted alive.

Remember at some point, people like the ratings agencies and the like will start to put out warnings if yet another election is called (especially as there doesn't seem to be a huge probability that a third election will be any more stable than this one).

Makes sense. Felipe should propose a name.
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