Spanish elections and politics

[Tintrlvr]

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.

From what i've heard, CeC, or Podemos, are neither pro or anti independence. They also got punished for their lack of position.

That is my understanding as well. They are in favor of a referendum and opposed to direct rule, but also anti-independence. They have had leaders who are pro-independence, however, but the national party has prevented the local party from endorsing independence. It *might* be possible for the independence parties to get CeC on their side to hold yet another referendum, but I can't see why the central Spanish government would react differently to a new referendum anyway, which makes the whole idea a bit pointless. (Although strategically I think it would be the right approach for the Spanish government to support another referendum; this result makes it reasonably clear that a referendum with 80+% turnout would have a result somewhere between Quebec 1995 and Scotland 2014, and a failed referendum would take all of the wind out of the independence parties' sails.)

[Tintrlvr]

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.

From what i've heard, CeC, or Podemos, are neither pro or anti independence. They also got punished for their lack of position.

That is my understanding as well. They are in favor of a referendum and opposed to direct rule, but also anti-independence. They have had leaders who are pro-independence, however, but the national party has prevented the local party from endorsing independence. It *might* be possible for the independence parties to get CeC on their side to hold yet another referendum, but I can't see why the central Spanish government would react differently to a new referendum anyway, which makes the whole idea a bit pointless. (Although strategically I think it would be the right approach for the Spanish government to support another referendum; this result makes it reasonably clear that a referendum with 80+% turnout would have a result somewhere between Quebec 1995 and Scotland 2014, and a failed referendum would take all of the wind out of the independence parties' sails.)

But for PP-C's the far this thing goes, better to them to retain hegemony in national politics. This will help them against national PSOE who'll have to appease their base in poorer autonomies (Extremadura, Castilla La Mancha, Andalusia) and weaken Podemos who is being caught in this fight.

While this is true, I think PP and Cs are more genuinely centralist than strategically so.

[Tintrlvr]

In any case I'm sure opinion would shift in Tabarnia after the independence of rump!Catalonia. Being geographically isolated from the rest of Spain would be quite economically disastrous for Barcelona and especially Tarragona (which is not the international powerhouse Barcelona is), especially if rump!Catalonia actually was not part of the EU as they postulate and thus would have border controls for any land travel between Tabarnia and the rest of Spain.

[Tintrlvr]

"Tabarnia" is only a joke, a wisecrack that went viral after the December 21 elections. It's basically anti-independence people wanting to put a mirror in front of pro-independence people, in order to highlight how absurd are the separatist claims (in the view of those 'unionists', of course).

"Barcelona is not Catalonia" = "Catalonia is not Spain"
 

Fair enough, but the point being that "Tabarnia" doesn't want independence/separation from Catalonia (and would be unhappy with that result) regardless of how it votes on Catalan independence, so it's a meaningless comparison devoid of substance.

[Tintrlvr]

Is the PNV/EAJ pro-Basque independence or more of a "Basque interests" party?

Simultaneously both and neither at the same time. A big and somewhat hilarious example is that the same day they signed the budget deal with Rajoy's government in Madrid, they also signed a declaration in favour of the right to decide with Bildu back in the Basque Country.

It really depends. I think their position on independence is something like "would be nice but now is not the time". They are clearly in favour of the right to decide (ie a referendum) though I don't think they would actively push for independence unless they felt threatened or something.

It also depens on who is in charge of PNV. Right now Urkullu is a moderate, but former leader Ibarretxe was a lot more pro-independence, actively pushing for the Basque Country to become a "free associated state". That was defeated in the Spanish Congress by a landslide margin: 29-313, with only Basque/Catalan/Galician nationalists voting in favour; IU splitting between abstaining and no; and everyone else voting no.

In fact up until the Catalan conflict, the Ibarretxe plan was the strongest pro-independence challenge in Spain, though it went nowhere near as far (Ibarretxe never dared to disobey court orders like Mas and Puigdemont for example)

In other words, they're CDC before it became a pro-independence party.