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November 19, 2019, 05:44:51 pm
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 288357 times)
The Saint
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« on: October 01, 2017, 09:37:05 am »

Is the whole situation as bad as the Catalan government says it is? From what I can tell, it is, but since I donít live in Spain, Iím not 100% sure.
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The Saint
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2017, 09:52:49 am »


Ok thank you

This whole situation is horrible, and at this point, I find it hard to see how the Catalans wonít vote against secession from the federal government.
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The Saint
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P P
« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2017, 04:38:58 pm »

PP is gonna suffer majorly for this at the polls, secession or not.  Rajoy is done.
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The Saint
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« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2017, 06:04:44 pm »

Well, it's official guys, Puigdemont actually did it! The absolute madman! He declared independence for all of 8 seconds before going back on his word and suspending the independence declaration for the sake of dialog (because of course Rajoy has been so open to it).

So now apparently an independent Catalonia has the somewhat dubious honor of being the shortest lived state and third shortest lived state in history respectively.

Image Link

Now seriously, Puigdemont basically went to the Catalan parliament, implicitly declared independence (though he didn't say "I declare the independence of the Catalan Republic" or anything like that, he just hinted at it) and he inmediately suspended it.

I'm not sure if I should be disappointed or relieved. Tomorrow Rajoy will speak in the Congress of Deputies. Also tomorrow everyone expects the Constitutional Court to declare the indepependence declaration illegal.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/10/10/inenglish/1507620922_401849.html

As for reactions, the unionists (PSC, PP, Cs) are obviously unhappy with this. CUP is also unhappy, they wanted an explicit independence declaration that was effective inmediately. Maybe they'll break their deal, leading to an early election? Surprisingly, Podemos has been quite positive that they haven't declared independence outright and went for more talks.

"We are seceding from Spain...at an undetermined time!"
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The Saint
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« Reply #4 on: October 10, 2017, 09:46:08 pm »

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-ciudadanos-sube-18-escanos-y-desbanca-podemos-tercer-puesto-201710082154_noticia.html

http://www.electograph.com/2017/10/espana-sondeo-gad3-generales-octubre.html

Support for PP down while Ciudadanos is going up. C's Benefiting from the negative reaction against Independence as well as the Guardia Civil being sent to stop voting that resulted in violence.

I'd say this is pretty expected.  I am surprised that PP didn't fall by more, though.
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The Saint
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« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2017, 06:19:50 pm »

Is the threshold 2%?
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The Saint
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« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2017, 03:50:53 pm »

Is...is this real?

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/929784107613212672
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The Saint
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« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2017, 04:50:27 pm »

I hope this poll isnít an outlier. While I doubt that Cís can overtake PP, this shows that it will be a true driving force throughout Spanish politics at a higher level than ever before.
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The Saint
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2017, 05:05:35 pm »


Now, it just remains to be seen whether or not elections are called soon.
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The Saint
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« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2017, 05:21:29 pm »

I think the next bifurcation point would be the Catalan elections Dec and see if the pro-Independence forces and capture a majority.  If so the crisis would get worse and PP/C would gain at the expense of of PSOE. 

I have an old rule of politics

If politics of an ecosystem becomes of politics of identity like on ROC (the Chinese vs Taiwanese identity) then political discourse always shift to the Right.   

Huh, interesting.

This will be a pivotal next few months.
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The Saint
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« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2017, 06:56:08 am »

That poll is most alarming for Podemos: Metroscopia typically overpoll Podemos and C's and under poll the old parties.

The left had better hope the Catalonia issue dies down and Spain gets to talk about actually important issues. (What is poverty and corruption? The only thing that matters is muh fleg!)

I mean, I would think about the unity of my nation as a "real issue" if I were Spanish.
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The Saint
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P P
« Reply #11 on: December 04, 2017, 03:57:48 pm »

Yay for Cs!
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The Saint
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P P
« Reply #12 on: December 29, 2017, 01:14:38 pm »

Tack, do you think Cs will remain this strong going into the next election?
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The Saint
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« Reply #13 on: December 29, 2017, 03:05:46 pm »

Ok thank you!
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The Saint
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« Reply #14 on: January 06, 2018, 07:20:01 pm »

LETíS GO RIVERA!!!!!

Also, is it basically a guarantee that Vox gets a seat?
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The Saint
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« Reply #15 on: January 06, 2018, 08:42:10 pm »

LETíS GO RIVERA!!!!!

Also, is it basically a guarantee that Vox gets a seat?

No, it's far from guaranteed in fact. This pollster is the only one that has seen them getting a seat though in their defense they are also the only ones polling VOX instead of just throwing them into "others".

In theory extrapolating from their 2014 EU parliament result they should be getting a seat with 1.5-1.6% of the vote nationally (they need 3% in Madrid). In 2014 with 1.6% they got 3.2% in Madrid. That would have given them 1 seat.

IMO if VOX gets a seat in the 2019 EU elections, they'll probably get at least one in the national election in 2020 (assuming Rajoy doesn't call a snap election this year). Same goes for PACMA or any other small party.

I thought I saw an earlier poll on Wikipedia that also gave them a seat
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The Saint
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« Reply #16 on: January 06, 2018, 08:51:36 pm »

Yeah, but that one is from the same pollster (Sociomťtrica-El EspaŮol), just an older poll.

Ah, ok.
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The Saint
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« Reply #17 on: January 12, 2018, 07:24:18 am »

WOOHOOOOO!!!!!

Seriously though, barring a snap election (and maybe even then), their polling lead will probably shrink significantly by the next election.
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The Saint
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« Reply #18 on: January 13, 2018, 08:24:16 am »

Cs is nothing close to an ďethnic nationalistĒ party. Was the Republican Party ethnic nationalist during the Civil War for opposing the South seceding? Of course not. Both areas had different ways of life, but in the end, they were, as Catalonia and all other regions are, united by a common nation.
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The Saint
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« Reply #19 on: January 23, 2018, 09:15:52 am »

I would've thought that UPyD would've crumbled as Cs grew, but they're doing pretty well.
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The Saint
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« Reply #20 on: January 23, 2018, 01:07:52 pm »

Ah ok. Thanks!
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The Saint
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P P
« Reply #21 on: February 12, 2018, 09:24:03 am »

Tack, could you discuss a little bit about Cs's platform and placement on the political spectrum, if you don't mind?
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The Saint
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« Reply #22 on: February 12, 2018, 06:53:42 pm »

Tack, could you discuss a little bit about Cs's platform and placement on the political spectrum, if you don't mind?

I thought everyone already knew about them. But sure, no problem.

I did (in fact, they are one of my favorite parties), but from my end, I sometimes have trouble finding their stances on issues outside of Spanish unionism so easily. In addition, many have described it as being anything from center-left to center-right, so i just wanted to know how someone in Spain would describe them.

Thank you for the response!
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The Saint
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« Reply #23 on: March 05, 2018, 11:07:43 am »

Politico.eu has an interesting article on the conflicts between PP and Cs: All-out war on the Spanish right

The article mentions local officials switching parties:

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It also discusses a little bit about conversations around a snap election:

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How do you see things playing out, Tack? Is a snap election somewhat of a possibility?
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The Saint
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P P
« Reply #24 on: April 04, 2018, 06:19:12 pm »

Tack, have there been any regional polls from Valencia recently?
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