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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 267080 times)
Oryxslayer
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« on: October 10, 2017, 10:45:38 pm »

Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.
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« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2017, 07:04:44 am »

I'm going to say Secessionists lose a majority by a timy amoumt of seats. This puts Podemos with the awkward choice of either Kingmaking one of two bad options, or a government is formed that reaches across the Secessionist/Unionist line and tries to pretend to ignore the independence question...
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« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2017, 03:01:36 pm »

It seems the GAD3 polls is an election day telephone poll and not an exit poll.

The last Electipn Day poll I remember claiming to be an exit due to the lack of exits was YouGov's 51-49 remain poll...
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« Reply #3 on: December 21, 2017, 03:35:53 pm »

Important to note that Barcelona appears to be 7% behind every other state.

Hell, clicking on the city gives me 4% vote counted.
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« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2017, 03:44:51 pm »

Yup, there's barely any vote from Barcelona proper. Keep in mind that the best unionist stronghold isn't the city itself but the suburbs, the "red belt" as it's known (former PSC voting areas). Barcelona city isn't that unionist. They voted 47.2% for secessionists in 2015, compared to 47.8% in all of Catalonia.

Oh yeah, I doubt any unionist bombs are going to be dropping throughout the count - its just that the current count probably is overstating separatist support due to the majority of the count curently coming from rurals.
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« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2017, 03:45:45 pm »

Tarragonia just flipping to C's BTW.
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2017, 04:55:25 pm »

Secessionists down to 69 seats now ..

I'm still seeing 70 - 34 JUNT, 32 - ERC, 4 -CUP. Is it a end result projection?
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« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2018, 07:48:04 pm »


IMO if VOX gets a seat in the 2019 EU elections, they'll probably get at least one in the national election in 2020 (assuming Rajoy doesn't call a snap election this year). Same goes for PACMA or any other small party.

This is the first time I have heard anything about this, but with the way polling is going it could be favorable to the PP/C's coalition. I would assume Rajoy would love to shed the chaotic working agreement that has been in place since 2015/16. So - what are the chances of such a scenario? One would assume that the catalan issue would be the big topic - at least at the start, so PP/C's would have a favorable playing field.
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« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2018, 09:01:32 pm »

The trend continues...

GAD3/ABC poll: (projected seats in parentheses)

26.2% C's (86/90)
24.7% PP (97/101)
24.2% PSOE (93/97)
14.7% UP (42/44)
  2.9% ERC (10/11)
  1.9% PDC (6)
  1.3% PNV (7)
  0.7% Bildu (2)
  0.3% CC (0/1)
  3.1% Others

71.0% Turnout

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 January 2018.

Well, thats a working majority for any coalition between the big two - now three I guess.

Now I really want to see this chaotic government fall, and get new elections...
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« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2018, 06:59:23 am »

HERE WE GO. This can't be more perfect for C's. The election will be called over Catalonia - C's strength, Podemos is in disarray giving them more youth voters, and the motion is a Opposition vote rather than a C's vote that would appear opportunistic.
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« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2018, 04:07:27 pm »





PP way down, if these numbers are accurate, then a C's-PSOE govt will be formed in the event of a snap election...
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« Reply #11 on: May 30, 2018, 09:29:02 am »



Entirely in the field post-Confidence motions.
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« Reply #12 on: May 31, 2018, 07:35:25 am »

The Cs doing well right now evokes (or at least reminds of) the spirit of pre-2011 UK, when the Lib Dems did well off the back of the 'none-of-the-above' vote.

Well, C's isn't really a 'none' vote, it is a right-centrist vote that plays upon the fears of Catalan separatism. C's wants an election right now because Catalonia will be the dominant issue of the campaign, at least at the start, and C's completely owns the Catalan issue inside old Castille. why C's has plenty of Liberal issues on their platform, Catalonia is their Trump card that C's wants to ride all the way to victory.
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« Reply #13 on: May 31, 2018, 11:57:07 am »

So while the vote will succeed, there has to be new elections right? This coalition that is ousting Rajoy is even more built of chaos then the current 'government.'
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« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2018, 10:16:19 am »

The thing is, this really isn't a government - it is a ramshackle lean-to designed to last as long as it needs too. For example, I doubt the coalition can pass the 2019 budget, especially with the opposition senate. So like others have said, I suspect this government will only last until the election is most favorable to PSOE - which probably means a reasonable lead over C's. With the way how polls have been for a while, the only two governments that could be formed are some orientation of PP+C's or  C's+PSOE. If a red/Orange government has to be formed, then it makes sense Sanchez wants to be the one dictating the terms rather than C's.
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« Reply #15 on: June 04, 2018, 01:25:27 pm »

Will Sanchez tackle constitutional reform?

What are the people's thoughts here about federalising Spain as a solution to the Catalonian Problem?

This government probably can't hope to pass the 2019 budget, and you think constitutional reform is on the cards? Sanchez wants to win the inevitable upcoming elections and end up forming a PSOE-C's collation (Podemos is too far back) - not rock the boat and switch the roles around.

Besides, PP still controls the senate.
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« Reply #16 on: June 06, 2018, 08:13:59 pm »

I guess the whole point of a technocratic and more moderate cabinet over one more partisan loyal is to portray the PSOE as the stable and productive party in the upcoming elections.
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« Reply #17 on: June 20, 2018, 09:53:31 am »

Nobody want new elections, but if push comes to shove, I suspect most of the former government would choose them over backing a PSOE budget or high profile proposal. So while Sanchez is setting himself up for a full term, I suspect it is just posturing to make the PSOE look like "the party of stability" and the incumbent when elections eventually come.
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« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2018, 10:06:53 am »

Sounds like the PP election is going to effectively be like a US style Caucus or Labour's leadership election, where only the most committed and partisan are voting members. Never a good recipe for picking a nationally electable candidate.
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« Reply #19 on: July 19, 2018, 08:10:17 am »

Puigdemont's rebellion case is dropped by Spanish Courts.
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« Reply #20 on: July 21, 2018, 08:04:48 am »

Any predictions on what changes with Casado in charge - if it benefits or hurts the PSOE/C's for example?
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« Reply #21 on: August 02, 2018, 02:27:11 pm »

Could there be a PSOE-Podemo government?

That poll kinda is a high point for the PSOE, so lets get that out of the way. But if the election was held today? Nope. Podemos on 15% means only about 50 seats, and PSOE needs to get well above 30% to see 125+ seats. Plus about half of the PSOE gains are coming at the expense of Podesmos.

If an election were held today based on the present polling the resulting government would be some combination of PP, PSOE, or C's. Its been like this for a while. If this poll is the resulting government would probably be PSOE around 105-115 plus C's around 62-67.

Of course, once we get on the campaign trail things might change.
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« Reply #22 on: August 04, 2018, 08:32:10 am »

Polls reflect a moment in time. At the beginning of July rhe PSOE was high, while the other parties were low for different reasons. The conventions of the PP and the PDeCAT at the end of July saw the victory of radicals in the Spanish Right and in Catalan separatism. On the one hand, Pablo Casado is implementing a tough and merciless opposition style, unashamedly resorting to demagoguery. Casado's claims on the supposed "call effect" that would be attracting illegal immigrants to Spanish coast, or the claims on alleged concessions to separatists are in this hard line. On the other hand, Puigdemont is unwilling to make things easy for Sánchez and is less ready for dialogue and cooperation than PDeCAT moderates. The government lost an important vote in Congress, when Podemos we and nationalists denied their support for a more relaxed expenditure target. It's hard to understand, when the EU Commission allowed more expenditure and the new target would have been a relief for regional governments, including Catalonia. Catalan nationalists argued that PP has a majority in Senate, but that could be overturned. In short, the government will have a very hard time to pass a budget. In case of snap election, I think neither the left nor the right would have a majority. Grand Coalition or PSOE-Cs seem very unlikely. Don't forget the undergoing investigation of the Casado's master degree. There will be new developments soon.

Maybe I am wrong here (you always can be watching from outside the nation) but the only sicking point between a PSOE-C's coalition is the Catalan issue - a C's red line. The two parties talked and attempted a government pact in the 2015-2016 crisis period, but it fell apart because C's and Podemos are polar opposites and refuse to support each other. There are a lot of stuff that both parties agree on, and other policies that as shown by 2015/16, are not hard to compromise on. If the numbers support a PSOE-C's government without any minor parties (or a PP-C's government if the situation flips), then I suspect it will be pursued by both parties. 
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« Reply #23 on: August 17, 2018, 09:11:49 am »

Is there any reason why PSOE and C couldn't form a centre-left coalition and put both PP and UP in opposition along with all the regional parties?

I think it is possible, but others don't. Either way, if the polls are accurate we are now right back where we started pre-Catalonia, a chaotic makeup that depends upon the minors for government. Barring sudden changes during the campaign, Spain could just be trading chaos for chaos.
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« Reply #24 on: September 03, 2018, 10:37:44 am »

Was the Cs's growth more a result of people expressing frustrations with Rajoy's government? And now that there is stability people are ditching the party?

Also partly the fact that the Catalonia issue is no longer the hot  button issue it was 6 months ago. C's are the ideal party in the eyes of right-wing Spanish when it comes to Catalonia.
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