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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 276186 times)
Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« on: June 28, 2018, 10:03:27 am »

Casado and others have stated concern at the low numbers of members registered to vote. PP has nominally more than 800k members, but this figure is unreal. Membership census hasn't been updated in a long time; possibly there are dead people and members who left in the census roll. Only 66k (less tan 8%) have registered and are eligible to vote. Turnout will be lower than that figure. It's a big failure for the PP.

Oh my, that's hideous. I compared this to the 2017 NDP leadership election for a perspective, and Canada's third largest party had nearly the exact same number of VOTERS (and that's with 52% turnout, the NDP has over 124k members) as Spain's largest party.
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Posts: 4,833
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2018, 04:39:38 pm »

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Atlas Politician
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Posts: 4,833
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2018, 04:54:14 pm »

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Does the UK snap election count?

I mean, it was a lot better than it could have been given that everyone three weeks out thought it would be an unmitigated disaster.

Even then, Labour lost that election and there is no sign that Labour will take over Parliament in the next election since they're behind a quite unpopular Tory government in polling atm.
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Posts: 4,833
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2018, 04:59:37 pm »

Did the Vox break through with working class voters?

Well, I'd have to look at municipality data, but looking at the poorest and richest areas of Seville  they certainly got a lot of votes but still better on richer areas:

Seville

Cerro Amate (poorest): 7.7%
Casco Antiguo (richest): 15.6%
Overall: 12.4%

Rich people being more fascist than poor people? Why, I am absolutely stunned! I am sure this isn't a pattern we've seen throughout basically every election worldwide this decade. /s
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Posts: 4,833
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2018, 05:20:27 pm »

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Andalucia in 2011? Wouldn't say that was a "good" result, exactly, but part of the reason why this is grim to ponder is due to the fact that the left has always been dominant in Andalucia. IIRC, in 2011, PSOE held its ground in surprising fashion when many had written them off.

PSOE is in government at the national level now so this was always a possibility. It feels worse because Vox did very well but, again, as I mentioned to Tender, people are ignoring C's for some reason. As a matter of fact, that party is very extreme but it's easy to see why many PSOE voters would feel comfortable voting for the C's, as they're not a traditional party of the right and have fewer connotations with the wrong side of the Spanish Civil War.

The problem is that the Cs will almost certainly go with PP + Vox over PSOE + AA because centrists will always take the side of the right wing over the side of the left wing.
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Posts: 4,833
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2018, 06:18:32 pm »

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Andalucia in 2011? Wouldn't say that was a "good" result, exactly, but part of the reason why this is grim to ponder is due to the fact that the left has always been dominant in Andalucia. IIRC, in 2011, PSOE held its ground in surprising fashion when many had written them off.

PSOE is in government at the national level now so this was always a possibility. It feels worse because Vox did very well but, again, as I mentioned to Tender, people are ignoring C's for some reason. As a matter of fact, that party is very extreme but it's easy to see why many PSOE voters would feel comfortable voting for the C's, as they're not a traditional party of the right and have fewer connotations with the wrong side of the Spanish Civil War.

The problem is that the Cs will almost certainly go with PP + Vox over PSOE + AA because centrists will always take the side of the right wing over the side of the left wing.

In all fairness, C's are not really comparable to the centrists they bear a superficial similarity with (your NEOS's/Radikale Venstres/En Marches/D66s etc). They have always had a vaguely populist right feel to them, stemming from their origins in Castillian nationalism.

That is true enough. I still would argue that centrists support right wingers before left wingers though.
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Posts: 4,833
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2018, 08:58:50 pm »

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

This decade, certainly; France 2012, Italy 2013, Sweden 2014, and Portugal 2015 all come to mind as pretty clear-cut examples of victories for left-wing parties. I'm probably missing some, too.

Let's see here:

France 2012 - Negated by the complete and utter disaster that was 2017. Hollande ended up having atrocious approval ratings, which resulted in the PS getting only 6.4% of the vote in the first round of the Presidential race. This isn't mentioning the absolute destruction of the PS in 2015 regionals (where they lost 15 regions) and also the Parliamentary left losing 286 seats in the 2017 legislative elections.

Italy 2013 - Negated by the total catastrophe named the 2018 Italian election. The Italian left ended up losing 227 Chamber and 65 Senate seats, and there is absolutely no sign of recovery in national polling or in elections held since. The regional elections in Italy saw the PD lose all of the 3 regions they were defending except Lazio.

Sweden 2014 - Negated by 2018, where the Red-Greens alliance ended up losing seats. The Social Democrats had their worst performance in 107 years.

Portugal 2015 - This one I did actually forget, and unlike the other three, they haven't been negated by elections held afterwards.

The fact that we're having to look at elections that aren't even the most recent elections in their country to try to find any semblance of good elections for the European left says a lot about how awful a state it is in.
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 4,833
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #7 on: December 03, 2018, 04:42:30 pm »

There's also a correlation between income and Vox votes. I guess Vox voters are not exactly "economically anxious"

Img


To the shock of absolutely nobody that actually looks beyond the ridiculous media narrative about far right voters.
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