Spanish elections and politics

[bigic]

"Coalición Socialistas por el Cambio 15M (Cambiar si se puede-Podemos 15M)" seems like a Podemos splinter?

[bigic]

L - left-of-centre parties PSOE, AA
R - right-of-centre parties PP, Cs, VOX
Huelva
L 6-7
R 4-5
Sevilla
L 10
R 8
Cadiz
L 8
R 7
Malaga
L 8
R 9
Cordoba
L 6-7
R 5-6
Jaen
L 5-6
R 5-6
Granada
L 6-7
R 6-7
Almeria
L 5
R 7

The most optimistic scenario for L:
L 58
R 51

The most optimistic scenario for R:
L 54
R 55 (1 seat majority)

Of course PSOE-Cs is also possible.

[bigic]

As for Ciudadanos governing with Vox support, there are precedents in the EU. Although the parties are on the right relative to the other ALDE parties and I as a liberal don't endorse such deals.
NL: VVD-CDA + LPF (2002)/PVV (2010), although the deals were short-lived, lasting 1-2 years
DK: Venstre-Konservative(-LA)+DF (2001-2011, 2015-)
FI: Kesk-Kok-PerusS (2015-, although PerusS split not long after entering government, with anti-government faction staying in the party)
There may be a few more I'm not aware of...

[bigic]

As for Gil, in Ceuta Vox is second by a recent poll with ~20% support. Ceuta was a Gil stronghold - they won the election in 1999.

[bigic]

Juanma Moreno has just been elected the President of Andalucia with the votes of his PP (26) in coalition with Cs (21) with support of Vox (12) - 59 out of 109 votes.