Spanish elections and politics

[BigSerg]

Today there was a vox demonstration in Madrid with more than 50000 attendees. That's more than the total votes he achieved in 2016

I think Vox would achieve 7-10% nationally at this time

[BigSerg]

My Prediction
Psoe:32%
PP:20%
AA:18%
Cs:17%
Vox:8%
Other:5%

[BigSerg]

My prediction:

PSOE: 35%
PP: 22%
AA: 18%
Cs: 16%
Vox: 5%

Others: 4%

Sadly, Spain will join the rest of Europe in having a far right party. I was happy when we were one of the few remaining stronholds against that, now the title of "largest EU country without a far right party in parliament" will go to Romania

Everything is due to OKUPA Sanchez

Actually, there were polls with Rajoy as PM giving Vox 1 seat. Not as many of course, but the first poll with Vox getting seats happened right after the Catalonia UDI in November 2018 (Sociométrica-El Español). Sánchez becoming PM might have helped as well, but I'd certainly pick Catalonia as the spark that lit the fire

Plus, that theory actually doesn't make much sense. If you are a conservative angry at Sánchez, doesn't it make more sense to vote tactically for PP or Cs?

Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too

[BigSerg]

Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too

I am Mexican American and follow the news of the case. My Mexican friends say that the migrants deliberately used the children as human shields and the general atmosphere is one of total rejection of the caravan.

You can write your opinions about Spanish politics even if you are Mexican American. Furthermore, Mexican Americans are specially welcomed if they want to discuss Spanish politics. In case you are Spaniard, you lied in the other thread discussing the San Diego-Tijuana border. Why? There's no need to lie.

It may seem crazy, but I did not lie haha, my father is American, my mother was Spanish and I was born in Mexico. Technically, both at the same time, right? I'm currently writing from Mexico while I watch Amlo take over.

[BigSerg]

PSOE internal poll:

PSOE: 39-40 seats
PP: 25
C's: 20
AA: 18
Vox: 6-7

Lol Psoe is dead

[BigSerg]

82.8% in:

28.7% PSOE, 33 seats
20.5% PP, 26
17.9% C's, 21
16.2% AA, 17
10.8% Vox, 12
  1.9% PACMA

It's happening!

[BigSerg]

Rivera said C's would present its own candidate for the investiture vote, rather than to support the PP candidate. Is this just election night talk, or could C's refuse to support the PP candidate?

It would be destroyed electorally. They will ultimately support the pp

[BigSerg]

This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

I might be wrong, but I doubt that Gibraltar was important or decisive. The EU decision making is based largely on 11th hour agreements. I'd say more: 11th hour is the very definition of the European Union. As I see it, Pedro Sánchez played his trick in order to draw concesions. Not concesions on sovereignty, but concesions on bilateral relations and safeguards. I don't know the details, but I haven't read solvent opinions saying it's a bad agreement. The Spanish Right claims that it's bad and maybe right wing voters think the same thing. However the Spanush Right is negationist  by definition. Does the UK press say it was a bad arrangenent for Spain? I didn't check.

There are voices in favour of calling elections immediately and try to mobilize left-wing voters, shocked and scared by the rise of the far right. The situation of the governmnt is untenable. Pedro Sánchez has a remarkable ability to survive; but this shock is too hard.

On the other hand, Cs will have to explain many things to EU allies. Macron and Le Pen together? What' s that? It's not difficult to imagine increasing pressure for a PSOE-Cs agreement, in case they have the numbers after a general election. With the VOX rise a red-irange majority is uncertain.

No easy way out.

At this point that is quite impossible. An approach of Cs to the left would destroy it in the elections and would only favor Vox.

[BigSerg]

So we have Celeste Tel and NC Report predicting a poor result for CS, that would stay in the 4th place. And we have this one saying that Cs will get a very strong result and will come second, besides surprisingly good result for Vox in a region where nobody would give the far-right a chance. Which one should I trust?

I assume that Cs will grow, but I think that surpassing the PP to come second won't be easy. Neither CS nor PP have good candidates, but their national leaders will campaign hard. Inés Arrimadas and Albert Rivera have Andalusian background and that's an advantage for Cs. PP gains un territorial implementation and this is an advantage in the campaign. PSOE will resist, but is losing ground every election. Too many years in power. It seems that the coalition between Podemos and IU will retain or increase the 20 seats they got separately ln 2015, despite they would lose some votes. IU didn't win seats  in certain provinces and the votes were wasted. Running in coalition compensates the loses.

Oranges have promised that they won't support Susana Díaz again. This leaves collaboration between PSOE and Ahora Andalucía as the only viable option, because PP and Cs won't have the numbers. The problem is that Susana Díaz and Teresa Rodríguez don't like each other. Susana Díaz is in the right wing of her party; she would be more comfortable dealing with Cs. Teresa Rodríguez is in the left wing of Podemos, in the trotskyst faction known as Anticapitalistas.

Hmmmm

[BigSerg]

Lol, three new polls have come out and they are all horrible for the left

[BigSerg]

El confidencial

Psoe25.8%
Cs:20%
PP:19.6%
UP:15.5%
Vox:8%

PP, Vox, Cs= 48%
Psoe, UP= 41%

La razon

Psoe: 24.8%
Cs:18%
PP:24.4%
UP:17.2%
Vox:8.7%

Vox, cs pp=51.1%
Psoe, UP=42%
Psoe,UP,Others:49%

ABC

Psoe:24.2%
Cs:20.7%
PP:20.5%
UP:14.2%
Vox:8.7%

PP, Cs, Vox=49.9%


30% of the respondents answered that the unit of Spain was their number one priority when voting


In pp, cs and vox was the number one priority of their voters

[BigSerg]

Other poll

El español

Psoe:25.5%
PP:21.6%
Cs:19%
UP:17.8%
Vox:8.5%

Vox,pp, cs=49.1%

This poll is the only one that does not give an absolute majority to the right. Quite strange since the percentage of right-wing votes largely wins to the left