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November 12, 2019, 04:25:42 am
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 287669 times)
seb_pard
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« on: May 21, 2017, 02:03:22 pm »

How is the election going on? From what I'm reading en El Pais is either strong Sanchez (in some parts 90%+) or strong Diaz, but I'm feeling he is doing better overall.

Results from La Rioja

Pedro Sanchez: 602 (60,38%)
Susana Diaz: 225 (22,57%)
Patxi Lopez: 162 (16,25%)

Source: https://twitter.com/PSOELaRioja/status/866366127294861313

I don't know how are PSOE militants in La Rioja (it isn't in Andalucia so I would expect a Sanchez leaning result but I don't really know) but I hope that this performance is a trend across Spain.

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seb_pard
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« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2017, 02:09:26 pm »

According with El Independiente, with 10% of the vote counted, the results are Sanchez 8000 and Diaz 6000.

From Valladolid:

Pedro 916
Susana 399
Patxi 112

Chiclana de la Frontera (Andalucia)
Pedro 154
Susana 113
Patxi 14

Triana (Sevilla)
Patxi 15
Pedro 57
Susana 217

Source: https://twitter.com/carmentorrres?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fv.24liveblog.com%2Flive%2F%3Fid%3D1390397
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seb_pard
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2017, 02:11:41 pm »

Interesting results:

Navarra
Pedro 864 (69,51%)
Susana 205 (16,49%)
Patxi 164 (13,19%)
blanco 10 (0,80%).

Source: Carmen Torres

Barcelona:
Pedro Sánchez 1199
Susana Díaz 152

Source: https://twitter.com/AntonioMaestre
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seb_pard
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« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2017, 02:12:07 pm »

How is the election going on? From what I'm reading en El Pais is either strong Sanchez (in some parts 90%+) or strong Diaz, but I'm feeling he is doing better overall.

Results from La Rioja

Pedro Sanchez: 602 (60,38%)
Susana Diaz: 225 (22,57%)
Patxi Lopez: 162 (16,25%)

Source: https://twitter.com/PSOELaRioja/status/866366127294861313

I don't know how are PSOE militants in La Rioja (it isn't in Andalucia so I would expect a Sanchez leaning result but I don't really know) but I hope that this performance is a trend across Spain.



Yeah, la Rioja is a Sanchez leaning area, and a small one anyways.

However, the big surprise thus far IMO has been the enclave of Ceuta! Even smaller than la Rioja, but Susana Diaz won there in the endorsements race. However, Sánchez has apparently won it now in the primary!

http://ceutatv.com/not/1636/-pedro-sanchez-se-impone-en-las-primarias-del-psoe-en-ceuta/

Sanchez 168
Diaz 72
(the source didn't tell Lopez's result)

Granted, it's a very small place, but if that holds up on the rest of Spain, Sánchez is probably favoured.

Good good Cheesy
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seb_pard
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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2017, 02:23:32 pm »

Official website:

http://consultasg.psoe.es/

I think there's already around 70% of the vote in (though there's no overall data that I can find but most places are at that rate)

Thus far:

Sánchez 49%
Diaz: 40.5%
López: 10.5%

Sanchez flips Madrid, Castille-La Mancha and Murcia compared to the endorsements

Also WTF, Patxi Lopez wins in Ceuta XD (unlike what I reported before)

Hahahaha great, if this is true, this is very nice! Ceuta is a weird place haha
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seb_pard
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« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2017, 02:40:36 pm »

Diaz has congratulated Pedro Smiley

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?
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seb_pard
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« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2018, 08:45:28 am »

New poll from Catalonia


Support from independence climbs to 48%

Image Link

The soberanists maintain their majority due to an historical result of la CUP (11 deputies, up from 4 in 2017), also Catalunya en Comu gets good results (11 from Cool.

Image Link

Good results for the soberanists (although not that good for the govern), but a better one for the left.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2018, 10:50:20 am »

Well, they decided to abstain, so Torra is going to be the new President
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seb_pard
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« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2018, 06:26:31 pm »

The no confidence motion depends on the PNV. I really think they would hate to vote against the PP but that would depend on part on the support for the motion in Euskadi. Rajoy (and in general, the spanish right) is deeply unpopular in the basque country, so I think the population will hate if the PNV is saw as a "savior" of Rajoy. What could happen in the regionals of next year? Could Urkullu lost the election? Who would benefit in that case? EH Bildu?
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seb_pard
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« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2018, 10:17:45 pm »

The no confidence motion depends on the PNV. I really think they would hate to vote against the PP but that would depend on part on the support for the motion in Euskadi. Rajoy (and in general, the spanish right) is deeply unpopular in the basque country, so I think the population will hate if the PNV is saw as a "savior" of Rajoy. What could happen in the regionals of next year? Could Urkullu lost the election? Who would benefit in that case? EH Bildu?

EH Bildu would certainly benefit the most. Maybe PSOE or Podemos also rise a bit but unlikely.

However Urkullu is definitely not losing the election. Current regional Basque polls are predicting PNV going up, not down. I guess it might stall PNV's momentum and bring them back to their 2016 results at worst.

Keep in mind that PNV has been in power every time except for the short 2009-2012 PSOE government propped up by PP, and the 2009 election was already controversial sincer Batasuna and their fake "totally not Batasuna" replacements were banned. PNV is a very flexible party, they have done deals with basically everyone in the Basque parliament, from Bildu (or Batasuna back in the day) to PP, to PSOE and IU

In any case, the next Basque election is not due until late 2020 so it's too early to talk about that.

And I wouldn't be so sure that it depends on PNV. The Catalan nationalists (especially PDECat apparently) are also not very happy with voting for Sánchez. I could see a scenario where the no confidence motion is completely derailed and only PSOE and Podemos vote in favour!

It would still be the most successful no confidence vote in Spanish history though. 156 votes in favour. The current record is the 1980 one against Suárez (152 in favour)

Thanks for the answer, it's pretty amazing that party, I think it's by far the most politically successful (and skillful) of Spanish politics (although I hate their approach to politics).

Although I disagree on PdCat, from what I read, although some parts of JuntsxCat (the Puigdemont faction) wouldn't vote for Sanchez, the people from PdCat who are in Spanish congress don't have too much problems supporting the no confidence motion. Probably they could demand some symbolic thing (maybe apologizing to Torrant about calling him Nazi or some promise about the 155) but they could not put too much pressure on Sanchez.

So you think the no confidence motion will not pass?
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seb_pard
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« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2018, 10:56:50 am »

It's interesting to see the non-independentist media in Catalonia (particularly El Periodico and La Vanguardia) very hopeful about the Sanchez government. Not that they expect a successful government, but you can see for the first time that both parts are interested in talk, and we can expect for the first time (baby) steps to ease the situation. Their "happines"" reflects the terrible environment Catalonia is  


Honestly I wish the best to Sanchez, and I don't care if he govern with the PP budget. He needs to advance on some thing (end the Mordaza law and eliminate some vetoes). I really hope that the main loser (besides PP) is Cs. PSOE need to take votes from them. When we see that happening, that's the time to call elections.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2018, 01:53:51 pm »

I read somewhere that the diputaciones forales in Euskadi and Navarra are the entities responsible of tax issues (they decide the taxes, collect them and I don't know about spending), so they are really powerful (more than the regional governments).
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seb_pard
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« Reply #12 on: December 02, 2018, 09:12:36 am »

Results can't be released until 10:15 pm due to issues with some polling stations

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/MINUTO-Elecciones-andaluzas_13_841795814_22260.html
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seb_pard
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« Reply #13 on: December 04, 2018, 06:33:25 pm »

Horrible results, although the demise of the socialists was totally expected. The campaign was simply horrible and they deserved it because they brought VOX to the campaign, although the media has a strong responsibility. They started to talk about VOX for months as if the party had a strong poll %, despite the party was polling around the same percentage as PACMA. They created a monster.

What I didn't expect was Adelante Andalucia's results, there are no words to describe that result. I don't think that could bring more friction between Rodriguez and Iglesias, but could bring a war in Izquierda Unida. I think the organization's old guard never liked these confluencias (too much power for Iglesias?) and they probably didn't participate enough in the campaign and will start to campaign against these types of organizations.

About the effect in Catalunya, is a very difficult situation for the soberanists, because this enforce the message that Spain is unfixable, but right now If I were a soberanist leader (and this includes the basques parties and Compromis) I would be terrified of early elections and would try to work with Pedro Sanchez. Strong Vox and Ciudadanos with a PP ruled by its right-wing faction could be terrible for the autonomies.

On Vox results, there is a good article published by eldiario about El Ejido before the election, anticipating a good result for Vox. Seems a place with many señoritos and their friends that vote for Vox and there is a lack of working class organizations (I saw turnout in the map from eldiario and actually is very low there). Horrible people.

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/Vox-crece-invernaderos-Almeria_0_840966249.html

Other thing, I think the Spanish political process is more related to LatAm than Europe in some aspects, including the rise of far right parties (increasing after the rise in Europe and mostly supported by upper class voters).



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