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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 287870 times)
Lumine
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« on: March 02, 2016, 03:16:46 pm »

Assuming Sánchez loses the second vote as well (as it seems likely), would that mean new elections right away? Or would Rajoy and/or Sánchez get another chance?
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Lumine
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« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2016, 07:32:52 am »

Any chance of Sanchez being ousted before a third election?
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Lumine
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2016, 06:58:02 am »

Did psoe ... Get anything in the deal?

It's not like PSOE had a lot of leverage left. The alternative was to have a third election on December, which they would have to contest with no Prime Ministerial candidate, with a large polling deficit and projected results that would have seen not only Podemos as the second largest party, but Rajoy inching towards the 150-155 seats and able to hold a majority government with C's as PSOE would lose quite a few seats.

One can wonder on the long-term damage this will cause to PSOE, but in the short term, I can see why they prefer a minority Rajoy Government with them still having a large bloc of deputies rather than a leap into what they think would be electoral disaster in December.
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Lumine
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 09:14:07 am »

Did psoe ... Get anything in the deal?

It's not like PSOE had a lot of leverage left. The alternative was to have a third election on December, which they would have to contest with no Prime Ministerial candidate, with a large polling deficit and projected results that would have seen not only Podemos as the second largest party, but Rajoy inching towards the 150-155 seats and able to hold a majority government with C's as PSOE would lose quite a few seats.

One can wonder on the long-term damage this will cause to PSOE, but in the short term, I can see why they prefer a minority Rajoy Government with them still having a large bloc of deputies rather than a leap into what they think would be electoral disaster in December.

A third election would have been a complete disaster for the whole Left, because of political disenchantment. There is internal strife in Podemos too. Anyway it's much worse for the PSOE. The incredibly inept way in which Felipe González -and the 'Old Senate'- in alliance with Susana Díaz -and the regional leaders called 'the barons'- have conducted the coup against Pedro Sánchez -who had far more misses than hits as party leader- in order to force the abstention -allowing the most corrupt party in Western Europe to stay in government- is going to cause a serious damage in the already weak credibility of the party. Furthermore, the coward attitude of the leaders of the 'rebellion' is contributing to deepen the hole. The silence of people like Susana Díaz, who has no courage to stand up, speak and give arguments in favour of abstention, is very eloquent.

I wonder, do you think Rajoy is lucky or just unnaturally skilled at surviving? I mean, at several points between December 2015 and June 2016 I was sure he was finished, and despite everything that's happened he's about to be Prime Minister again with the complicity of the socialists, who seem to be committing further and further electoral suicide to no end.
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Lumine
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2016, 10:16:04 am »

I wonder, do you think Rajoy is lucky or just unnaturally skilled at surviving? I mean, at several points between December 2015 and June 2016 I was sure he was finished, and despite everything that's happened he's about to be Prime Minister again with the complicity of the socialists, who seem to be committing further and further electoral suicide to no end.

I think the survival of Rajoy is due in large measure to his resilience, which is the main virtue of that terrible man. "Resistir es vencer". Of course nobody can survive in politics without a good dose of luck.

I just read this analysis by Enric Juliana. It's a good summary of events in the last 300 days. If you have reading comprehension in Spanish and interest to comprehend the situation, you should take a look.

http://www.caffereggio.net/2016/10/23/trescientos-dias-en-la-niebla-de-enric-juliana-en-la-vanguardia/

Oh, certainly, I've taken quite an interesting in reading about Spain this year. My native language too, so even better!

I do wonder when exactly will Rajoy's leadership of the PP end. Surely he can't go further than this term, right?
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Lumine
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2016, 12:15:28 pm »
« Edited: October 27, 2016, 12:18:01 pm by Vice President Lumine »

Woah, the Podemos representatives just walked out of the investiture debate shortly before the vote is to begin.

EDIT: Never mind, just a small protest, they returned to vote.
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Lumine
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« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2017, 04:40:06 pm »

Ciudadanos at 22-23% and tied with PSOE, absolutely beautiful. Go Rivera!
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Lumine
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« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2018, 08:17:06 pm »

Any chance of a vote of no confidence if Rajoy doesn't call a snap election? It doesn't seem Unidos Podemos and PSOE are in very good shape to face such an election.
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Lumine
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« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2018, 05:49:38 pm »

The debate for the motion of no confidence is set for May 31st and June 1st.
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Lumine
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« Reply #9 on: December 28, 2018, 01:17:45 am »

I must say, it is rather interesting how Franco didn't manage to hold onto significant popular support after death, and how much openly Francoist parties failed despite the survival of some vague notions of sociological Francoism in AP/PP. There's plently of examples of post-dictatorship democracies in which parties nostalgical of a given regime, its leader or his policies have managed to survive and even garner significant support, and it's fascinating to see Spain fully reversed that potential trend.
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