Toomey vs. Sestak rematch
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  Toomey vs. Sestak rematch
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Author Topic: Toomey vs. Sestak rematch  (Read 9401 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #25 on: January 07, 2015, 07:42:51 PM »

Hilary isnt gonna win Pa by 12, more like 8 pts. But, he is a club for growth senator and they have endorsed Rob Johnson as well. We have to pick our races carefully. Sestak will be competetive and can win.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #26 on: January 19, 2015, 11:34:45 AM »

Maybe Sestak won't get a free ride after all: former Congressman Chris Carney is weighing a run - http://www.politicspa.com/pa-sen-former-rep-chris-carney-considers-2016-senate-bid/63066/

And he's purposely being sought out by establishment Dem leaders that aren't fond of Sestak.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #27 on: January 19, 2015, 11:50:50 AM »
« Edited: January 19, 2015, 11:57:12 AM by smilo »

Hard for a Democrat to go much to the right of Sestak, but gosh darn it, they're gonna try in Pennsylvania.

I'm anti-hate crime legislation, but I do find it funny that UW-Laramie is where he went to grad school, and he voted against the Matthew Shepard hate crime bill. He probably opposes it for different reasons unfortunately.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #28 on: January 19, 2015, 12:10:12 PM »

Hard for a Democrat to go much to the right of Sestak, but gosh darn it, they're gonna try in Pennsylvania.

I'm anti-hate crime legislation, but I do find it funny that UW-Laramie is where he went to grad school, and he voted against the Matthew Shepard hate crime bill. He probably opposes it for different reasons unfortunately.


The Dems learned their lesson from 2010 concerning a divisive primary. Sestak is a Rear Admiral who deserves a second chance at competeting against Toomey.  He has a natl security background  and has a congressional record to stand on.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #29 on: January 19, 2015, 12:28:49 PM »

Gross. Hopefully if he runs he'll meet the same fate as Critz.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #30 on: January 19, 2015, 12:33:06 PM »

Albert Gore Jr. .... Democratic ... 2,485,967 ...  50.60%   
George W. Bush . Republican ... 2,281,127 ...  46.43%   

Rick Santorum   ... Republican ...  2,481,962 ... 52.41%
Ron Klink ............ Democratic ... 2,154,908 ... 45.51%

Toomey begins as the leader here. Could go Sestak but I'd weigh the odds to Toomey.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #31 on: January 19, 2015, 01:28:12 PM »

Gross. Hopefully if he runs he'll meet the same fate as Critz.

He won't win but it will mean Sestak has to spend and risks angering Dem leaders even more.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #32 on: January 19, 2015, 01:49:33 PM »

Gross. Hopefully if he runs he'll meet the same fate as Critz.

He won't win but it will mean Sestak has to spend and risks angering Dem leaders even more.

Yeah, exactly. It's a shame the PA Dem establishment is letting their bitterness and spite get in the way of a potentially Democratic Senate.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #33 on: January 20, 2015, 08:00:17 AM »

PPP polled PA over he weekend and only leaked (on Twitter, at least) one result. It was Christie's poor favorability among Eagles fans. Tongue

I imagine we'll get the rest today or tomorrow, at the latest.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #34 on: January 28, 2015, 05:27:31 PM »

Philadelphia State Senator Vincent Hughes might be prepping for a run for the U.S. Senate - http://www.politicspa.com/hughes-for-senate/63337/

With all of the big names passing on the race, this would probably be Sestak's biggest remaining obstacle. He'd have the Philly machine (and others) behind him. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #35 on: January 29, 2015, 12:07:42 AM »

With an approval rating of 28% (PPP recently) Senator Toomey has a very low ceiling. He will get practically no crossover vote, and even if he gets almost the entire GOP vote he will be behind with independent voters. Against several non-politicians, failed challengers, and unknown Democrats he is ahead but never cracking 45%. The 28% approval suggests that 45% is very close to his ceiling.

He will not go down to defeat as Rick Santorum did in 2006 or Tom Corbett in 2014 -- but he is far to the Right in a Democratic-leaning state. He got away with that as a stealth candidate in 2010, but his voting record in a high-turnout election will make him one-and-done.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #36 on: January 29, 2015, 12:10:27 AM »

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oh thank you for your excellent analysis sir, much appreciated.
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Xing
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« Reply #37 on: January 29, 2015, 03:11:32 AM »

The takeaway number from that poll is -7, not 28. 37 is also an important takeaway number. Toomey is not very well known, and a bit unpopular among those that know him. He's vulnerable, but far from being done for.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #38 on: January 29, 2015, 06:51:44 AM »

With an approval rating of 28% (PPP recently) Senator Toomey has a very low ceiling. He will get practically no crossover vote, and even if he gets almost the entire GOP vote he will be behind with independent voters. Against several non-politicians, failed challengers, and unknown Democrats he is ahead but never cracking 45%. The 28% approval suggests that 45% is very close to his ceiling.

He will not go down to defeat as Rick Santorum did in 2006 or Tom Corbett in 2014 -- but he is far to the Right in a Democratic-leaning state. He got away with that as a stealth candidate in 2010, but his voting record in a high-turnout election will make him one-and-done.

You're unquestionably spamming now. Stop.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #39 on: January 29, 2015, 10:28:56 AM »


Sure, just as Pryor, Begich, and Hagen started out as leaders in their races. Smiley
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Maxwell
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« Reply #40 on: January 29, 2015, 05:02:31 PM »

The takeaway number from that poll is -7, not 28. 37 is also an important takeaway number. Toomey is not very well known, and a bit unpopular among those that know him. He's vulnerable, but far from being done for.

See - That is a fair assessment!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #41 on: February 19, 2015, 06:26:35 PM »

"“In my estimation, if Joe Sestak is the nominee in 2016 for U.S. Senate, we will once again lose to Pat Toomey,” T.J. Rooney, the state Democratic Party’s Chair in 2010, told National Journal."

(He must not be reading the Gospel according to pbrower!)

...

"National Democratic leaders have also been approaching others about running. According to the National Journal’s report, Sen. Jon Tester, new chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, reached out to Allegheny County Chief Executive Rich Fitzgerald about pursuing the seat. And the DSCC has met with Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski."

And Bob Brady is urging DA Williams to consider a run.

http://www.politicspa.com/pa-sen-democrats-search-for-alternatives-to-sestak/63930/


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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #42 on: February 19, 2015, 06:33:49 PM »

"“In my estimation, if Joe Sestak is the nominee in 2016 for U.S. Senate, we will once again lose to Pat Toomey,” T.J. Rooney, the state Democratic Party’s Chair in 2010, told National Journal."

(He must not be reading the Gospel according to pbrower!)

...

"National Democratic leaders have also been approaching others about running. According to the National Journal’s report, Sen. Jon Tester, new chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, reached out to Allegheny County Chief Executive Rich Fitzgerald about pursuing the seat. And the DSCC has met with Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski."

And Bob Brady is urging DA Williams to consider a run.

http://www.politicspa.com/pa-sen-democrats-search-for-alternatives-to-sestak/63930/




How strong would Williams and Fitzgerald be, Phil?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #43 on: February 19, 2015, 07:11:17 PM »

Don't know much about Fitzgerald, to be honest. Williams would have major problems in the primary since he's actually has a bit of a conservative streak. He made headlines yesterday, blasting Wolf for the death penalty moratorium. But he isn't going to run anyway.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #44 on: February 19, 2015, 07:15:43 PM »

"“In my estimation, if Joe Sestak is the nominee in 2016 for U.S. Senate, we will once again lose to Pat Toomey,” T.J. Rooney, the state Democratic Party’s Chair in 2010, told National Journal."

(He must not be reading the Gospel according to pbrower!)

...

"National Democratic leaders have also been approaching others about running. According to the National Journal’s report, Sen. Jon Tester, new chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, reached out to Allegheny County Chief Executive Rich Fitzgerald about pursuing the seat. And the DSCC has met with Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski."

And Bob Brady is urging DA Williams to consider a run.

http://www.politicspa.com/pa-sen-democrats-search-for-alternatives-to-sestak/63930/

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This is the real reason for opposition to Sestak, pure bitterness. Let's not insult our intelligence by pretending it's anything other than that, "party leaders". Whatever candidate they put up, Sestak will give them a spanking just like he did to Specter. And if Sestak ends up losing the GE due to unnecessary friendly fire in the primary, the "party officials" only have themselves to blame.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #45 on: February 19, 2015, 08:04:19 PM »


LOL, endorsed! Tweety would make an excellent anti-Sestak candidate. I'm sure the party officials are burning up his phonelines as we speak.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #46 on: February 19, 2015, 08:10:41 PM »

"“In my estimation, if Joe Sestak is the nominee in 2016 for U.S. Senate, we will once again lose to Pat Toomey,” T.J. Rooney, the state Democratic Party’s Chair in 2010, told National Journal."

(He must not be reading the Gospel according to pbrower!)

...

"National Democratic leaders have also been approaching others about running. According to the National Journal’s report, Sen. Jon Tester, new chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, reached out to Allegheny County Chief Executive Rich Fitzgerald about pursuing the seat. And the DSCC has met with Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski."

And Bob Brady is urging DA Williams to consider a run.

http://www.politicspa.com/pa-sen-democrats-search-for-alternatives-to-sestak/63930/

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This is the real reason for opposition to Sestak, pure bitterness. Let's not insult our intelligence by pretending it's anything other than that, "party leaders". Whatever candidate they put up, Sestak will give them a spanking just like he did to Specter. And if Sestak ends up losing the GE due to unnecessary friendly fire in the primary, the "party officials" only have themselves to blame.

Oh, I'd never deny that. Of course it's a personal gripe with him. But whether it's just personal or something more substantive, it still hurts.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #47 on: February 19, 2015, 08:20:44 PM »

wait, did party leaders actually think Specter would do better?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #48 on: February 19, 2015, 09:38:45 PM »

wait, did party leaders actually think Specter would do better?

There was a time when they bought the whole "He appeals to the center and some Republicans still!" argument but they didn't grasp how unpopular he became with the switch and the general mood against incumbents.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #49 on: February 19, 2015, 09:41:25 PM »

I like Vincent Hughes, going by his tone in that interview article. Populist and unapologetic, along with decently liberal seems to be a good combo. Either him or Sestak would be fine.
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