Toomey vs. Sestak rematch

[IceSpear]

I'll say a mirror image of last time. 51-49 Sestak.

[IceSpear]

Toomey by about the same. If Specter held on in a presidential year, so can he, and Toomey has become relatively popular in his own right anyway

Toomey is no Specter, and Sestak is no Hoeffel.

Oh, and Hillary is no Kerry.

[IceSpear]

Toomey in the high single digits, maybe 53-45. But basically any answer, up to and between either candidate winning in the low double digits, is defensible and possible based on what the environment will be like in 2016, because it's still too early to have any idea.

That's going out on quite a limb. 45% tends to be a floor for each party except in the case of very popular (Specter, Rendell) or very unpopular (Santorum) incumbents.

[IceSpear]

Gross. Hopefully if he runs he'll meet the same fate as Critz.

[IceSpear]

Gross. Hopefully if he runs he'll meet the same fate as Critz.

He won't win but it will mean Sestak has to spend and risks angering Dem leaders even more.

Yeah, exactly. It's a shame the PA Dem establishment is letting their bitterness and spite get in the way of a potentially Democratic Senate.

[IceSpear]

"“In my estimation, if Joe Sestak is the nominee in 2016 for U.S. Senate, we will once again lose to Pat Toomey,” T.J. Rooney, the state Democratic Party’s Chair in 2010, told National Journal."

(He must not be reading the Gospel according to pbrower!)

...

"National Democratic leaders have also been approaching others about running. According to the National Journal’s report, Sen. Jon Tester, new chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, reached out to Allegheny County Chief Executive Rich Fitzgerald about pursuing the seat. And the DSCC has met with Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski."

And Bob Brady is urging DA Williams to consider a run.

http://www.politicspa.com/pa-sen-democrats-search-for-alternatives-to-sestak/63930/

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This is the real reason for opposition to Sestak, pure bitterness. Let's not insult our intelligence by pretending it's anything other than that, "party leaders". Whatever candidate they put up, Sestak will give them a spanking just like he did to Specter. And if Sestak ends up losing the GE due to unnecessary friendly fire in the primary, the "party officials" only have themselves to blame.

[IceSpear]

What about Chris Matthews? lol

LOL, endorsed! Tweety would make an excellent anti-Sestak candidate. I'm sure the party officials are burning up his phonelines as we speak.

[IceSpear]

wait, did party leaders actually think Specter would do better?

The entire Dem establishment (both nationally and in PA) agreed to support Specter in exchange for his party switch. Whether or not they were/are actually delusional enough to believe Specter would've been a stronger candidate than Sestak is an open question. But regardless of their opinion on that matter, it's pretty clear that what's motivating them at this point is animosity towards Sestak for going against them.

[IceSpear]

wait, did party leaders actually think Specter would do better?

There was a time when they bought the whole "He appeals to the center and some Republicans still!" argument but they didn't grasp how unpopular he became with the switch and the general mood against incumbents.

IIRC Specter's approval ratings in early 2010 were pretty awful, and he tended to do worse than Sestak in polls despite having much higher name recognition. I'm not sure whether they actually bought that line of thinking or if they were just saying it to protect their guy.