Toomey vs. Sestak rematch

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey by about the same. If Specter held on in a presidential year, so can he, and Toomey has become relatively popular in his own right anyway

Toomey is no Specter, and Sestak is no Hoeffel.

Oh, and Hillary is no Kerry.

And 2016 is no 2004. In 2004 Blanche Lincoln cruised to reelection while Bush was carrying Arkansas by double digits (IIRC).

Ok but we don't know what 2016 will be like so let's settle down. 2010 was supposed to bring over 60 Dem Senate seats, remember? 2012 was supposed to bring a GOP Senate majority, remember? 

What has Joe Sestak done since 2010? Seriously asking.

Politicking

[Keystone Phil]

What has Joe Sestak done since 2010? Seriously asking.

Running for Senate, really. He signaled that he wanted to run again in like 2011. He's been running around the state and he's got his exploratory committee going.

"Running around the state" is up for debate. He hasn't been a highly visible surrogate or anything. 

[Keystone Phil]

Maybe Sestak won't get a free ride after all: former Congressman Chris Carney is weighing a run - http://www.politicspa.com/pa-sen-former-rep-chris-carney-considers-2016-senate-bid/63066/

And he's purposely being sought out by establishment Dem leaders that aren't fond of Sestak.

[Keystone Phil]

Gross. Hopefully if he runs he'll meet the same fate as Critz.

He won't win but it will mean Sestak has to spend and risks angering Dem leaders even more.

[Keystone Phil]

PPP polled PA over he weekend and only leaked (on Twitter, at least) one result. It was Christie's poor favorability among Eagles fans.

I imagine we'll get the rest today or tomorrow, at the latest.

[Keystone Phil]

Philadelphia State Senator Vincent Hughes might be prepping for a run for the U.S. Senate - http://www.politicspa.com/hughes-for-senate/63337/

With all of the big names passing on the race, this would probably be Sestak's biggest remaining obstacle. He'd have the Philly machine (and others) behind him. 

[Keystone Phil]

With an approval rating of 28% (PPP recently) Senator Toomey has a very low ceiling. He will get practically no crossover vote, and even if he gets almost the entire GOP vote he will be behind with independent voters. Against several non-politicians, failed challengers, and unknown Democrats he is ahead but never cracking 45%. The 28% approval suggests that 45% is very close to his ceiling.

He will not go down to defeat as Rick Santorum did in 2006 or Tom Corbett in 2014 -- but he is far to the Right in a Democratic-leaning state. He got away with that as a stealth candidate in 2010, but his voting record in a high-turnout election will make him one-and-done.

You're unquestionably spamming now. Stop.

[Keystone Phil]

"“In my estimation, if Joe Sestak is the nominee in 2016 for U.S. Senate, we will once again lose to Pat Toomey,” T.J. Rooney, the state Democratic Party’s Chair in 2010, told National Journal."

(He must not be reading the Gospel according to pbrower!)

...

"National Democratic leaders have also been approaching others about running. According to the National Journal’s report, Sen. Jon Tester, new chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, reached out to Allegheny County Chief Executive Rich Fitzgerald about pursuing the seat. And the DSCC has met with Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski."

And Bob Brady is urging DA Williams to consider a run.

http://www.politicspa.com/pa-sen-democrats-search-for-alternatives-to-sestak/63930/

[Keystone Phil]

Don't know much about Fitzgerald, to be honest. Williams would have major problems in the primary since he's actually has a bit of a conservative streak. He made headlines yesterday, blasting Wolf for the death penalty moratorium. But he isn't going to run anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

"“In my estimation, if Joe Sestak is the nominee in 2016 for U.S. Senate, we will once again lose to Pat Toomey,” T.J. Rooney, the state Democratic Party’s Chair in 2010, told National Journal."

(He must not be reading the Gospel according to pbrower!)

...

"National Democratic leaders have also been approaching others about running. According to the National Journal’s report, Sen. Jon Tester, new chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, reached out to Allegheny County Chief Executive Rich Fitzgerald about pursuing the seat. And the DSCC has met with Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski."

And Bob Brady is urging DA Williams to consider a run.

http://www.politicspa.com/pa-sen-democrats-search-for-alternatives-to-sestak/63930/

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This is the real reason for opposition to Sestak, pure bitterness. Let's not insult our intelligence by pretending it's anything other than that, "party leaders". Whatever candidate they put up, Sestak will give them a spanking just like he did to Specter. And if Sestak ends up losing the GE due to unnecessary friendly fire in the primary, the "party officials" only have themselves to blame.

Oh, I'd never deny that. Of course it's a personal gripe with him. But whether it's just personal or something more substantive, it still hurts.

[Keystone Phil]

wait, did party leaders actually think Specter would do better?

There was a time when they bought the whole "He appeals to the center and some Republicans still!" argument but they didn't grasp how unpopular he became with the switch and the general mood against incumbents.

[Keystone Phil]

I like Vincent Hughes, going by his tone in that interview article. Populist and unapologetic, along with decently liberal seems to be a good combo. Either him or Sestak would be fine.

Yes, one of the two would absolutely be fine if you want to guarantee six more years of the same Senator.

[Keystone Phil]

wait, did party leaders actually think Specter would do better?

There was a time when they bought the whole "He appeals to the center and some Republicans still!" argument but they didn't grasp how unpopular he became with the switch and the general mood against incumbents.

IIRC Specter's approval ratings in early 2010 were pretty awful, and he tended to do worse than Sestak in polls despite having much higher name recognition. I'm not sure whether they actually bought that line of thinking or if they were just saying it to protect their guy.

I think it was both. I believe I remember the Dem establishment pointing out how Sestak would be easily painted as too far left in a General while Specter would be able to own the center and attack the GOP for extremism. But that just wasn't going to work. The damage was done with Specter. Toomey would have won far more easily.