2015 Academy Awards Discussion

[Mr. Morden]

Am I correct in my impression that, oddly enough, Eddie Redmayne is gaining ground on Michael Keaton for best actor just when Birdman is gaining ground on Boyhood for Best Picture?

[King]

at least Snowstalker is predictable

[King]

Am I correct in my impression that, oddly enough, Eddie Redmayne is gaining ground on Michael Keaton for best actor just when Birdman is gaining ground on Boyhood for Best Picture?

The Producers Guild's winners for Best Animated and Best Documentary were not even nominated by the Academy in their category, so it's clearly a different group of voter tastes.

[Mr. Morden]

Am I correct in my impression that, oddly enough, Eddie Redmayne is gaining ground on Michael Keaton for best actor just when Birdman is gaining ground on Boyhood for Best Picture?

The Producers Guild's winners for Best Animated and Best Documentary were not even nominated by the Academy in their category, so it's clearly a different group of voter tastes.

Regardless, it looks like the oddsmakers are downgrading both Boyhood and Keaton right now, at least a little (though both still listed as frontrunners).

On Betfair, it's currently about a 60/40 split between Boyhood and Birdman for best picture (the other movies in that category are being given a miniscule chance of winning).  While for best actor, it's a similar 60/40 split for Keaton over Redmayne.

[Mr. Morden]

The futures markets are now giving Redmayne a slight edge over Keaton to win Best Actor.

Boyhood's still leading Birdman for Best Pic.

Birdman is leading in the market for Best Original Screenplay though.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The last film to miss BP after winning SAG ensemble and PGA was Little Miss Sunshine in 2006. The issue to consider is that unlike Little Miss Sunshine, Birdman is the co-leader when it comes to nominations and has support from across all branches of the Academy. The only fly in the ointment, and it's a big fly, is that Birdman missed an editing nomination. The last film to win BP without an editing nomination was Ordinary People in 1980. Boyhood still in front.

Redmayne winning SAG was a big-fricking-deal... this is generally an American-centric group and has a tendency to reward veterans and comebacks. Up until this point, I would think Redmayne was just behind Keaton... but IF Birdman is strong enough across AMPAS, then I wouldn't give Redmayne a huge lead, but he's definitely got his nose in front, particularly, if he wins BAFTA next weekend. Although it should be noted that BAFTA went ga-ga for TOE... so..

[King]

Academy Award Winner Eddie Redmayne... heh.

[Lief 🗽]

Academy Award Winner Eddie Redmayne... heh.

He deserves it IMO. I've seen all the Best Actor nominated performances at this point.

[Knives]

Academy Award Winner Eddie Redmayne... heh.

He deserves it IMO. I've seen all the Best Actor nominated performances at this point.

No, no, no. Steve Carrell was the best followed by Keaton and Cooper with those Brits far behind.

[checkers]

I saw Two Days, One Night today. Very impressive film. I haven't seen any of the other best actress performances, but I find it hard to imagine that they'll be better than Marion Cotillard (though of course she won't win again).

[Gass3268]

Birdman won the DGA. They have now won all 3 major guild awards. In the last 19 years only one film (Apollo 13) won all 3 major guild awards and did not win the Oscar for best picture.

[Eraserhead]

I'm cool with Birdman winning. Great movie.

[King]

Boyhood won BAFTA Best Film. That's been aligned with the Oscar best film since 2008.

[Lief 🗽]

I will be very disappointed if Birdman wins. Still hoping for a hilarious surprise Grand Budapest Hotel win due to vote splitting. But this BAFTA win should give Boyhood some badly needed momentum.

Also Redmayne winning the BAFTA, while not surprising because he's British and playing a British guy, should be the final nail in Keaton's coffin.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'd still be fine with Boyhood winning Best Picture, but the more I think about it the more it starts to feel kind of like one of those 'highlights reels' of someone's early life you sit through at wedding receptions, but for almost three hours. I'm not sure if I'd claim that Birdman is a 'better' film--and the award is 'Best' Picture, after all--but I found it more enjoyable and more interesting. I think maybe the issue is that despite my being on paper more or less exactly the generation that Boyhood is ostensibly speaking about and (presumably) to, the way my childhood went didn't really bear much resemblance to it, so it just fell into a sort of 'uncanny valley' only with detached disinterest instead of fearful revulsion.

[King]

I'd still be fine with Boyhood winning Best Picture, but the more I think about it the more it starts to feel kind of like one of those 'highlights reels' of someone's early life you sit through at wedding receptions, but for almost three hours. I'm not sure if I'd claim that Birdman is a 'better' film--and the award is 'Best' Picture, after all--but I found it more enjoyable and more interesting. I think maybe the issue is that despite my being on paper more or less exactly the generation that Boyhood is ostensibly speaking about and (presumably) to, the way my childhood went didn't really bear much resemblance to it, so it just fell into a sort of 'uncanny valley' only with detached disinterest instead of fearful revulsion.

Birdman is a selection, that while a good film, would be a classic pick of something that doesn't stand the test of time.  I think people will still go back to Boyhood years from now and film schools will recognize it into the future.

It's the same problem I had with The King's Speech winning. Fine movie, but long since forgotten. The Social Network was a classic.

[Lief 🗽]

A lot of people talk about "Oscar bait", and they usually mention biopics, but just as common are these kinds of fun and well-made but ultimately not very deep self-referential films about the film industry, like Birdman. Same thing with Argo and The Artist. All three are going to be forgotten in a decade.

Boyhood is a masterpiece. It will endure. The Academy will look foolish in the future if they pick Birdman over it.

[bedstuy]

It's true that a movie that's a "love letter to movies" seems to win Oscars at an unfair rate.  Birdman is sort of that, and sort of a cease and desist demand to movies.  It's also bigger than just a film about a famous person or a film actor.  It's a movie about ego and being a blowhard and ambition and how they all interact with art and creativity.  It's definitely way, waaay better than Argo. 

Boyhood is a weaker drama.  It's a story that is told by the passage of time rather than unfolding itself as a good drama does.  But, it needs to be judged as what it is, which is not a traditional movie.  That's why it's hard to judge the Oscars.  Boyhood succeeded for what it was, in a totally unique way that has never been done before.  Boyhood is more a work of film craft than screenwriting or storytelling.  It depends on what you care about more, storytelling or film craft. 

[Eraserhead]

I enjoyed Argo and The Artist but Birdman is far superior to those films.

I still need to see Boyhood. I suppose I really should try to watch it before Feb. 22.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Boyhood is a masterpiece. It will endure. The Academy will look foolish in the future if they pick Birdman over it.

That's what the Academy usually does though.

I mean they passed over Network and Taxi Driver in favour of Rocky, and Dr. Strangelove in favour of My Fair Lady.

They snubbed Alfred Hitchock for Best Director five times, but handed the same award to the likes of James Cameron and Mel Gibson.

[King]

James Cameron is a good director. He just writes dumb dialogue.

[Middle-aged Europe]

James Cameron is a good director. He just writes dumb dialogue.

The question is whether Cameron deserved to win Best Director for Titanic, when Hitchcock didn't for Rear Window or Psycho.

[King]

James Cameron is a good director. He just writes dumb dialogue.

The question is whether Cameron deserved to win Best Director for Titanic, when Hitchcock didn't for Rear Window or Psycho.

The competition matters. In the category that year, it was going to be either Cameron or Gus Van Sant, who is just awful.

Titanic was a cinematic achievement and a modern classic, even if you don't like it.  People still watch it today. The other contender for Best Picture that year was L.A. Confidential, which was a good movie, but looking back would have just been as silly as giving the win to Shakespeare in Love.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Again, that's not the point.

[King]

Again, that's not the point.

I know your point. Hitchcock definitely deserved an Oscar. I disagree that James Cameron is one who didn't. He's definitely a worthy director.