Election Projection puts Kerry ahead

[Fritz]

The Election Projection (http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html), a very Republican-leaning site, today puts John Kerry in the lead:

"The temporary dip of which I spoke last time has just gotten a little longer and a little deeper. The situation in Iraq, worrisome to all Americans, appears to be weighing heavily on Bush's numbers.   Even stellar job news for March hasn't been enough to overcome the increasing casualties and unrest over there.  As a result, Senator Kerry has pulled ahead of the President in this week's Election Projection.  The Democratic nominee-to-be leads the popular vote by almost 3 percentage points, 50.93% - 48.07%.  That margin has enabled him to capture a majority of electoral votes as well.  Florida has eased back into the Senator's camp, giving him a 291-247 advantage.  Although my liberal friends might call me a blind optimist, I still believe Kerry won't be able to stay on top for long.  The President will regain the lead."

[ShapeShifter]

Thanks Fritz for the update. I enjoy from time to time reading that website for entertainment only.

[© tweed]

Current Tally - 04/05/04

2000 Adjustment:  Bush +0.99%

EV's:  Bush 274, Kerry 264

Pct:    Bush 48.86%, Kerry 50.14%

They have Kerry up in the PV but Bush in the EV.

[Lunar]

Actually it says this:

Electoral Votes:   Bush 247, Kerry 291
Popular Vote:   Bush 48.07%, Kerry 50.93%

His map:

[zachman]

Not that it matters, but does Nebraska still award by congressional district?

[angus]

Nebraska and Maine, theoretically.  I do not think it is likely that any of nebraska's three districts will vote for Kerry.  I think both of Maine's probably will.  Take a look at Dave Liep's 2000 election results by state.

[classical liberal]

The Nebraska second will be a tossup this time.  We're loosing ground in formerly conservative suburbs.  In part because the modernization of suburbia has made ppl more inclined towards liberal ideas, in part because of Columbine.  NE-2 is the district where that kid was caught recently bringing a shotgun and 11 home made bombs to school.

[© tweed]

Actually it says this:

Electoral Votes:   Bush 247, Kerry 291
Popular Vote:   Bush 48.07%, Kerry 50.93%

His map:

I don't see how that equals 291--only NH swings to Kerry from bush, which puts Kerry at 264.

[Lunar]

What about that little state of Florida?

Anyway, Election Projection is far from perfect due to their arbitrary weighting system and lack of state polls yet (everything is subtracted or added equally from the margins Bush got in 2000).

[classical liberal]

FL

[© tweed]

What about that little state of Florida?

Anyway, Election Projection is far from perfect due to their arbitrary weighting system and lack of state polls yet (everything is subtracted or added equally from the margins Bush got in 2000).

But FLA is still in the red on their map.

[Lunar]

No it isn't.  Try resetting your cookies or something, you seem to be looking at an older version of the page and image than we are.

[© tweed]

No it isn't.  Try resetting your cookies or something, you seem to be looking at an older version of the page and image than we are.

I tried refreshing, it doesn't work...I'm not going through the internal workings of my PC just to see a silly map.  I'll take your work for it.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It looks like Election Projection only based their maps on national data and 2000 results, not on any state polls.  So it's interesting, but doesn't have any real insights on a state-by-state level.

And NE-02 will go easily for Bush again.  Every year, some Democrats gets their hopes up in NE and gets slaughtered.  When I was working for a polling firm, we had a Dem client running for Congress in NE-02, and he simply refused to believe how badly he was polling given them demographics of the district.  But we were right on election night when he lost by 30 points.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Why do they WV as solidly Bush?  

[Lunar]

Why do they WV as solidly Bush?  

Because as we described earlier in the therad, they just subtract or add the national margin on top of the 2000 one.  

Here is what the site owner said on the very subject:

Code:

Bush won West Virginia by a surprisingly large margin in 2000. Because I have not yet added state polling to these calculations, West Virginia is currently projected to go for Bush by 5.1%. I'm sure that will change once I start including state polls for battleground states.