Maryland 2016 elections

[warandwar]

Hogan's Bill to eliminate the mandate to create a stormwater management fee got voted down in the house environment committee yesterday, meaning that our rain will continue to taxed, to the displeasure of algae everywhere.

[warandwar]

Former House Majority Leader Kumar Barve announced for MD-08 yesterday. He's served since 1990 and was the first Indian-American ever elected to a state legislature. He represents Rockville and Gaithersburg in MoCo. He's the first to announce, but there are still plenty of names out there, like Kathleen Matthews, Jamie Raskin, Rich Madaleno, etc.
Also, Donna Edwards is expected to announce today. She's already gotten the support of some national progressive and women's groups. One name mentioned for her seat is none other than Antony Brown.

[hopper]

Hogan released his budget. Not really, actually. He's releasing the full budget tomorrow, but he gave some details:

• Eliminating a raise for State Employees
• Cutting around 200 mil from Medicaid, mostly from provider rates (cutting payments to doctors)
• continuing the 2% base cut for all state agencies that O'Malley started in December
• Cutting the geographic aid formula by 50%. Basically, this means larger counties like PG and MoCo, as well as the city lose out on expected funding. How will they make up for it? That's their problem!
• no tax cuts, but a vague promise that this will "eventually"
• no cuts for the PG hospital or the P/R lines, though Hogan made it clear he is still considering cutting off funding

Overall, a fairly bland budget, but certainly a Republican one. It seems Hogan has decided to put off cutting any taxes until later, meaning he's potentially putting off more drastic cuts to the budget.
Here's the Post and the Sun

It looks like from  your post MD is just a highly taxed state like NJ is although Property Taxes are way cheaper in MD than in NJ.

[hopper]

Naturally. Times, when Republicans could win, say MD-08 (and they essentially held it since 1960 to 1978 and since 1986 to 2002) are in the past. When i see PRESENT Republican candidates in this district (frequently - VERY conservative) - i can't avoid a sad smile.

I think as long as The Tea Party still has a place in the Republican Party we won 't be fielding any Liberal Republicans like Morella or Mathias. I think once the Boomers die off there will be Liberal Republicans running for office again.

[smoltchanov]

Naturally. Times, when Republicans could win, say MD-08 (and they essentially held it since 1960 to 1978 and since 1986 to 2002) are in the past. When i see PRESENT Republican candidates in this district (frequently - VERY conservative) - i can't avoid a sad smile.

I think as long as The Tea Party still has a place in the Republican Party we won 't be fielding any Liberal Republicans like Morella or Mathias. I think once the Boomers die off there will be Liberal Republicans running for office again.

Good, if so. I like variety. And not only between parties, but - interparty too..

[Maxwell]

Naturally. Times, when Republicans could win, say MD-08 (and they essentially held it since 1960 to 1978 and since 1986 to 2002) are in the past. When i see PRESENT Republican candidates in this district (frequently - VERY conservative) - i can't avoid a sad smile.

I think as long as The Tea Party still has a place in the Republican Party we won 't be fielding any Liberal Republicans like Morella or Mathias. I think once the Boomers die off there will be Liberal Republicans running for office again.

If there is a Republican President, I could see a slight return of liberal or moderate Republicans.

[hopper]

Former House Majority Leader Kumar Barve announced for MD-08 yesterday. He's served since 1990 and was the first Indian-American ever elected to a state legislature. He represents Rockville and Gaithersburg in MoCo. He's the first to announce, but there are still plenty of names out there, like Kathleen Matthews, Jamie Raskin, Rich Madaleno, etc.
Also, Donna Edwards is expected to announce today. She's already gotten the support of some national progressive and women's groups. One name mentioned for her seat is none other than Antony Brown.

Why would Edwards run if Van Hollen is running? It just doesn't make sense. Van Hollen is the favorite here in my opinion. Its like Pallone and Holt running in the Dem primary for NJ Senate in 2014. There is no difference between the two.

[warandwar]

Former House Majority Leader Kumar Barve announced for MD-08 yesterday. He's served since 1990 and was the first Indian-American ever elected to a state legislature. He represents Rockville and Gaithersburg in MoCo. He's the first to announce, but there are still plenty of names out there, like Kathleen Matthews, Jamie Raskin, Rich Madaleno, etc.
Also, Donna Edwards is expected to announce today. She's already gotten the support of some national progressive and women's groups. One name mentioned for her seat is none other than Antony Brown.

Why would Edwards run if Van Hollen is running? It just doesn't make sense. Van Hollen is the favorite here in my opinion. Its like Pallone and Holt running in the Dem primary for NJ Senate in 2014. There is no difference between the two.

That's not true at all. No offense, but you're completely wrong.
1: Edwards is from PG and Van Hollen is from MoCo. These are two very different constituencies and bases of power in the Maryland Democratic Party.
2: Van Hollen is tight with congressional leadership, Edwards is not.
Remember, Edwards won her seat via primary challenge against Albert Wynn, who exemplified establishment.
3: Edwards is amount .2 points further to the left, according to DW-Nominate.
4: On the state level, as well, Van Hollen is much closer to the Democratic establishment. Just look at the rush of figures endorsing him.

[Thomas D]

Brown to run for the now open MD-04 seat:


http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/blog/bal-anthony-brown-20150311-story.html

[IceSpear]

Brown to run for the now open MD-04 seat:


http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/blog/bal-anthony-brown-20150311-story.html

Probably the best move for him. He wouldn't be taken seriously statewide again without some major image rehabilitation. Laying low for a while in a safe House seat would be the best place to do that.

[hcallega]

I'm interested to see if Kathleen Matthews runs in the 8th. It would definitely make for a higher-profile race.

Also, keep your eye on Dutch and Delaney. 

[publicunofficial]

I'm interested to see if Kathleen Matthews runs in the 8th. It would definitely make for a higher-profile race.

Also, keep your eye on Dutch and Delaney. 

Personally I hope Heather Mizeur runs for the 8th and wins. She's a solid progressive who showed her passion in the Dem governor primary last year.

[hopper]

Former House Majority Leader Kumar Barve announced for MD-08 yesterday. He's served since 1990 and was the first Indian-American ever elected to a state legislature. He represents Rockville and Gaithersburg in MoCo. He's the first to announce, but there are still plenty of names out there, like Kathleen Matthews, Jamie Raskin, Rich Madaleno, etc.
Also, Donna Edwards is expected to announce today. She's already gotten the support of some national progressive and women's groups. One name mentioned for her seat is none other than Antony Brown.

Why would Edwards run if Van Hollen is running? It just doesn't make sense. Van Hollen is the favorite here in my opinion. Its like Pallone and Holt running in the Dem primary for NJ Senate in 2014. There is no difference between the two.

That's not true at all. No offense, but you're completely wrong.
1: Edwards is from PG and Van Hollen is from MoCo. These are two very different constituencies and bases of power in the Maryland Democratic Party.
2: Van Hollen is tight with congressional leadership, Edwards is not.
Remember, Edwards won her seat via primary challenge against Albert Wynn, who exemplified establishment.
3: Edwards is amount .2 points further to the left, according to DW-Nominate.
4: On the state level, as well, Van Hollen is much closer to the Democratic establishment. Just look at the rush of figures endorsing him.

True Edwards has prided herself as an "outsider" throughout her congressional career. She made Steny Hoyer unhappy by endorsing John Delaney in the Dem Primary in the 6th Congressional District in 2012 over the preferred Dem Establishment Candidate. Yeah that's true that Van Hollen is close to Dem Leadership in the US House.

[Miles]

The Maryland Survey has Hogan at 49/21 approvals.

[Maxwell]

The Maryland Survey has Hogan at 49/21 approvals.

Obama has only 45% approvals. Just to keep in mind when comparing this to other polls.

[ilikeverin]

This is why I always thought Hogan would do well. Not at all a Rauner type situation.

Yeah, I've gotta say I'm much less distressed than I thought I would be.  Although they're being wishy-washy, it seems like he's reneged on his commitment to scrap the Purple Line, and his budget isn't insane.  Good for him.  Not that he's better than Governor Miseur would've been

[smoltchanov]

This is why I always thought Hogan would do well. Not at all a Rauner type situation.

Yeah, I've gotta say I'm much less distressed than I thought I would be.  Although they're being wishy-washy, it seems like he's reneged on his commitment to scrap the Purple Line, and his budget isn't insane.  Good for him.  Not that he's better than Governor Miseur would've been

Miseur was even more liberal then Brown, so she would likely be beaten in 2014 climate...

[smoltchanov]

This is why I always thought Hogan would do well. Not at all a Rauner type situation.

Yeah, I've gotta say I'm much less distressed than I thought I would be.  Although they're being wishy-washy, it seems like he's reneged on his commitment to scrap the Purple Line, and his budget isn't insane.  Good for him.  Not that he's better than Governor Miseur would've been

Miseur was even more liberal then Brown, so she would likely be beaten in 2014 climate...

No. Brown lost because he was incompetent not because he was too liberal.

I am reasonably sure both factors played a role. Before being banned on DKE a lot of people tried to "convince" me that Brown, as veteran and former legislator, was very competent. And he lost. It seems Hogan anti-tax platform really resonated with lot of normally Democratic voters (especially in Baltimore suburbs). In such case Mizeur wouldn't have done much better..

[moderatevoter]

As someone who was active in the political scene in Maryland in 2014, I'm starting to think that this election wasn't entirely about O'Malley -- unlike my initial thoughts (as well as most of the postmortem on this race).

For most of the stretch, people did not see this race as competitive. During the Republican primary, the other candidates (save Hogan), despite what they claimed, acknowledged their chances were virtually nil in the general. For them, the real race was for 'control' of the Maryland GOP. On the other hand, Hogan claimed he could win, but truthfully, not many people believed him.

The same attitude was evident on the Democratic side. With Maryland being a sapphire blue state, most people thought the Democratic primary would decide who the next Governor would be. Once Brown's team won, they basically took the foot off the peddle. In the last month and a half or so, they realized that it was actually a race -- and they panicked and used ridiculous attacks on Hogan (some centered on abortion and gun control), which Hogan deflected with ads like this.

I'm starting to think O'Malley might have won re-election had he run. Yes, he wasn't beloved (and the Republicans loathed him), but he would have run an aggressive campaign, which Brown did not. Brown's campaign manager was an alum of Hillary Clinton's 2008 campaign, which should tell you all you need to know.

[ChainsawJedis]

Summary: Every Democrat will win except MD-01

Sadly the district I live in. 2014 being my first time eligible to vote I did everything I could to vote Harris out.

Unsure of who I will be supporting in the primaries for the Senate seat. I would be behind Mizeur if she chooses to run, but I think it would be safer for her to run for Van Hollen's vacant seat.

[free my dawg]

This is why I always thought Hogan would do well. Not at all a Rauner type situation.

Yeah, I've gotta say I'm much less distressed than I thought I would be.  Although they're being wishy-washy, it seems like he's reneged on his commitment to scrap the Purple Line, and his budget isn't insane.  Good for him.  Not that he's better than Governor Miseur would've been

Miseur was even more liberal then Brown, so she would likely be beaten in 2014 climate...

Nah. Brown just decided not to campaign in Baltimore.

[hcallega]

There are a number of reasons why Brown lost, some of them personal and others a bit broader. He got very lucky in the primaries with Gansler's weak campaign and Mizeur's limited appeal outside of the party's left flank. The results were misleading: Brown was not as popular with rank-and-file Democrats as his numbers suggested. Rather, he was simply the most palatable candidate to the largest number of voters.

The earlier comment on Larry Hogan is right. He was the only Republican candidate who ran on elect-ability. David Craig, his closest rival, ran largely as an anti-tax candidate, while Charles Lollar was something of a Tea Partier. Hogan took a page out of his former boss's (Bob Ehrlich) playbook. He ran on a center-right platform: cut taxes, cut spending, attract businesses to Maryland, and pretty much leave everything else in place (especially laws on social issues). That worked in the GOP primary, and Hogan avoided looking like a radical (or even a "conservative") in the process.

Hogan vs. Brown should have been a landslide for Brown. But, as has been said before, he didn't campaign hard enough and he didn't craft a message which appealed to voters outside of the tried-and-true Democratic base. Far too often his message was "The past eight years have been good. Larry Hogan will roll-back everything." That isn't a message: It's a cop-out.

The lessons from 2014 are important for any Maryland Democrat interested in running for statewide office. We cannot win just by carrying the Big Three (Baltimore City, MOCO, PGC). We cannot win without a message that appeals to middle income, suburban voters. We cannot win by just stirring up fear in what Republicans will do if elected (especially considering that Hogan hasn't adopted too radical of an agenda, yet). Look at what happened in eastern Baltimore County: a bunch of quality Dems got knocked out because they were tied to an unpopular Democratic candidate with a weak message.

The 2016 Senate election should be an easy win for the Dems, especially if Van Hollen is the nominee. But winning will require a better effort than in 2014, and the GOP knows that. The national party should not have to spend any money here. If they do, it's a victory for Republicans in their quest to keep the Senate.

2018 will take even more work, but I'm optimistic about the potential candidates. Delaney and Franchot would make excellent statewide nominees. Kamenetz would be all-right. I'd like to see Dutch run, but I don't think it's happening. Ike Leggett could also be a strong candidate.

[warandwar]

If you think Franchot would be a good candidate, just remember that you have to be appealing in order to appeal to voters.

[ChainsawJedis]

Heather Mizeur posted on Facebook last week about moving to the Eastern shore later this year.
Does anyone think she would be interested in running for Harris's seat? Especially if he runs for the open senate seat.

[smoltchanov]

Heather Mizeur posted on Facebook last week about moving to the Eastern shore later this year.
Does anyone think she would be interested in running for Harris's seat? Especially if he runs for the open senate seat.

Harris's district is unlikely to elect even conservative Democrat (except in very strong wave year), and will never (in present form) elect a candidate with views even remotely like Mizeur's...