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  Here we can contrast elections
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Author Topic: Here we can contrast elections  (Read 14275 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: January 16, 2015, 08:52:15 pm »

I suggest this thread for contrasting elections or sets of elections. We can show, for example, how states trend. In this case I suggest that  even if the partisan identities of the states are almost opposite in the elections involving Eisenhower and Obama, the blocks of states involved suggest that Ike and Obama got (and lost) many of the key constituencies in their elections. This, if you are aware of my posting history, is one of my favorite contrasts.

..........................

When all is said and done, I think that the Obama and Eisenhower Presidencies are going to look like good analogues. Both Presidents are chilly rationalists. Both are practically scandal-free administrations. Both started with a troublesome war that both found their way out of. Neither did much to 'grow' the strength of their Parties in either House of Congress. To compare ISIS to Fidel Castro is completely unfair to Fidel Castro, a gentleman by contrast to ISIS.

The definitive moderate Republican may have been Dwight Eisenhower, and I have heard plenty of Democrats praise the Eisenhower Presidency. He went along with Supreme Court rulings that outlawed segregationist practices, stayed clear of the McCarthy bandwagon, and let McCarthy implode.


 
gray -- did not vote in 1952 or 1956
white -- Eisenhower twice, Obama twice
deep blue -- Republican all four elections
light blue -- Republican all but 2012 (I assume that greater Omaha went for Ike twice)
light green -- Eisenhower once, Stevenson once, Obama never
dark green -- Stevenson twice, Obama never
pink -- Stevenson twice, Obama once

No state voted Democratic all four times, so no state is in deep red.

   
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DS0816
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« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2015, 08:59:54 pm »

Dwight Eisenhower was the last Republican to carry all six New England states every time (1952, 1956).

Rhode Island, along with a brand-new 1960 Hawaii, carried Democratic ever since with only two exception: the 49-state re-elections of Richard Nixon (1972) and Ronald Reagan (1984).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2015, 09:00:27 pm »
« Edited: September 28, 2019, 07:31:34 pm by pbrower2a »

Twelve of forty-eight states voted for the same party -- and they went Republican all four times. No state went Democratic all four times -- not even the two states that prevented 50-state landslides in 1972 (Massachusetts) and 1984 (Minnesota). Eisenhower won both states together twice, and no Republican nominee has ever won both states together in the last century. Nixon barely won Minnesota in 1972 and Reagan barely won Massachusetts in 1984.

Eisenhower even won the two states (Massachusetts and Rhode Island) outside the South that Al Smith won in 1928 -- but that is for another thread.

Ike must have been an excellent match for some states that many of us consider very liberal.  
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2015, 09:24:36 pm »
« Edited: January 23, 2015, 03:51:35 pm by pbrower2a »

Here's a blank map (intensity not blanked out) if you want to show the Congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska, but not electoral votes.



Here's one for elections that don't involve individual districts of Maine and Nebraska.



Or Alaska, Hawaii, or DC not voting (elections under the 48-star flag):



Or so that I can be a smart-aleck, the 45-star flag that excludes the States admitted to the Union during the 20th century:

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DS0816
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« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2015, 09:27:27 pm »

Twelve of forty-eight states voted for the same party -- and they went Republican all four times. No state went Democratic all four times -- not even the two states that prevented 50-state landslides in 1972 (Massachusetts) and 1984 (Minnesota). Eisenhower won both states together twice, and no Republican nominee has ever won both states together. Nixon barely won Minnesota in 1972 and Reagan barely won Massachusetts in 1984.

Ike must have been an excellent match for some states that many of us consider very liberal.  

Adding to what you mention...

One thing also to keep in mind is this: We both hail from the same state, Michigan. Along with Minnesota and Pennsylvania, every Republican carried the three when winning the presidency up to Dwight Eisenhower's re-election in 1956. These three sates were among the six Teddy Roosevelt carried, as the Progressive Party's nominee, in 1912, as all his pickups came from the 1908 column of incumbent Republican William Howard Taft.

The Democrats now have their base where the Republicans used to have theirs. Dwight Eisenhower was the only Republican president during the Democratic presidential realigning period of 1932 to 1964. Bill Clinton was the only two-term Democratic president during the Republican presidential realigning period of 1968 to 2004 map. Eisenhower carried more than 80 percent of available states in both his elections. Clinton carried in the 60s percentile range of available states. The only states Clinton carried, at least once, which didn't end up in Eisenhower's column, at least once, were Clinton's home state Arkansas and Georgia.

All the states carried in the 1950s, at least once, by two-time losing Democrat Adlai Stevenson are right at home with today's Republicans. (Well, except for North Carolina and Georgia. Judging by their margins spread, from 2008 and 2012, it may now be that former bellwether Missouri is voting like Indiana.)

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2015, 10:24:30 pm »

Twelve of forty-eight states voted for the same party -- and they went Republican all four times. No state went Democratic all four times -- not even the two states that prevented 50-state landslides in 1972 (Massachusetts) and 1984 (Minnesota). Eisenhower won both states together twice, and no Republican nominee has ever won both states together. Nixon barely won Minnesota in 1972 and Reagan barely won Massachusetts in 1984.

Ike must have been an excellent match for some states that many of us consider very liberal.  

Adding to what you mention...

... (E)very Republican carried Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania when winning the presidency up to Dwight Eisenhower's re-election in 1956. These three states were among the six Teddy Roosevelt carried, as the Progressive Party's nominee, in 1912, as all his pickups came from the 1908 column of incumbent Republican William Howard Taft.

The Democrats now have their base where the Republicans used to have theirs. Dwight Eisenhower was the only Republican president during the Democratic presidential realigning period of 1932 to 1964. Bill Clinton was the only two-term Democratic president during the Republican presidential realigning period of 1968 to 2004 map. Eisenhower carried more than 80 percent of available states in both his elections. Clinton carried in the 60s percentile range of available states. The only states Clinton carried, at least once, which didn't end up in Eisenhower's column, at least once, were Clinton's home state Arkansas and Georgia.

All the states carried in the 1950s, at least once, by two-time losing Democrat Adlai Stevenson are right at home with today's Republicans. (Well, except for North Carolina and Georgia. Judging by their margins spread, from 2008 and 2012, it may now be that former bellwether Missouri is voting like Indiana.)



We are going to see that often. The 1976 election would have likely had a Democratic trifecta of Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania except for the Favorite Son effect in Michigan.  Carter still won -- barely. My next map will show a contrast between Carter and Clinton.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2015, 11:21:44 pm »

These three Democratic wins involve the "New South" -- the South between the 1964 Civil Rights Act and the completion of the success of the Southern Strategy. 

1992 is about as clearly a Realignment election as any in the lifetimes of any reader of these forums unless one is very old. Few saw 1992 coming, and the 1992 election looked very different from that of 1976.



It's not a perfect match (there was a third-party nominee getting lots of votes), but I am showing the one Carter win to the two (Bill) Clinton wins:

Ford, Bush, Dole -- blue
Carter, Clinton once -- pale blue
Carter, Clinton never -- yellow
Ford -- but Clinton twice -- white
Carter, Clinton twice -- red

...putting the states showing white for those that Carter did not win but Clinton won twice says much about subsequent Democratic wins of the Presidency; only one of the states in yellow has voted for any Democratic nominee for President since 1976. If Bill Clinton could not win Texas (Hope, Arkansas is not far from the Texas state line) maybe no Democrat can win it for the next thirty years; the state used to vote Democratic except in Democratic losses and even went for Humphrey in his 1968 loss.

States in pale blue are at best iffy for any Democratic nominee for President.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: January 18, 2015, 01:59:52 pm »
« Edited: January 19, 2015, 01:41:48 pm by pbrower2a »


These three Democratic wins involve the "New South" -- the South between the 1964 Civil Rights Act and the completion of the success of the Southern Strategy.  

1992 is about as clearly a Realignment election as any in the lifetimes of any reader of these forums unless one is very old. Few saw 1992 coming, and the 1992 election looked very different from that of 1976.



It's not a perfect match (there was a third-party nominee getting lots of votes), but I am showing the one Carter win to the two (Bill) Clinton wins:

Ford, Bush, Dole -- blue
Carter, Clinton once -- pale blue
Carter, Clinton never -- yellow
Ford -- but Clinton twice -- white
Carter, Clinton twice -- red

...putting the states showing white for those that Carter did not win but Clinton won twice says much about subsequent Democratic wins of the Presidency; only one of the states in yellow has voted for any Democratic nominee for President since 1976. If Bill Clinton could not win Texas (Hope, Arkansas is not far from the Texas state line) maybe no Democrat can win it for the next thirty years; the state used to vote Democratic except in Democratic losses and even went for Humphrey in his 1968 loss.

Eighteen states shifting in completely-opposite ways in two elections only sixteen years apart with the winning nominees very similar suggest that state voting behavior had changed.  

States in pale blue are at best iffy for any Democratic nominee for President.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2015, 11:00:44 am »
« Edited: February 13, 2015, 01:25:11 am by pbrower2a »

If anyone has any doubt that the Presidential Election of 1976 is ancient history for all practical purposes:

Carter 1976, Obama 2012    



Carter 1976, Obama twice  red
Carter 1976, Obama once pink
Carter 1976, Obama never yellow
Ford 1976, Obama twice white
Ford 1976, Obama once light blue
Ford 1976, Obama never blue
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2015, 01:39:18 pm »
« Edited: January 19, 2015, 11:50:21 pm by pbrower2a »

Nixon, the incumbent VP, inherits the President from a popular President in 1960 -- NOT!




Eisenhower 1956, Nixon 1960  blue (Alaska* went for Nixon in 1960 -- light blue)
Eisenhower 1956, Kennedy 1960 white
Stevenson 1956, Kennedy 1960 red (Hawaii* went for Kennedy in 1960 -- pink)
Stevenson 1956, "uncommitted" 1960 green
No state went from Stevenson to Nixon in 1960.

I would guess that both Alaska* and Hawaii* would have gone for Ike had they voted in 1956.

Gore, the incumbent VP, inherits the President from a popular President in 2000 -- NOT!



Dole and Dubya -- blue
Clinton and Dubya -- green (Florida disputed for a month... thus the light shade)
Clinton and Gore -- red

No state went from Dole to Gore.

Gore lost fully eleven states that Clinton had won four years earlier... and any one of them could have ensured that the Great Disaster would have not been President.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #10 on: January 19, 2015, 07:17:14 pm »

Dwight Eisenhower was the last Republican to carry all six New England states every time (1952, 1956).

Rhode Island, along with a brand-new 1960 Hawaii, carried Democratic ever since with only two exception: the 49-state re-elections of Richard Nixon (1972) and Ronald Reagan (1984).

Didnt Reagan sweep New England both times
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: January 19, 2015, 08:20:19 pm »
« Edited: May 14, 2015, 02:17:05 pm by pbrower2a »




Let's see if you have a case:




Dukakis actually won the state (111)
Dukakis lost by 5.1% or less (133 - cumulative 244)
Dukakis lost by 5.87% to 7.78%  (15 -- cumulative 259)
TIPPING POINT -- MICHIGAN  7.90% (20 -- cumulative 279)

An even swing of 4% of all states in 1988 makes Mike Dukakis President of the United States. An even swing of 4% of all states except Montana and South Dakota (which were probably then at a ceiling for any Democratic nominee for President) still gives the Presidency to Mike Dukakis.

The next five states (Louisiana, Ohio, Maine, Kentucky, and Delaware, in pale blue; 49 electoral votes and 328 cumulative) were from 10.21% to 12.40% away from a Dukakis win would go for Bill Clinton -- twice.  

Texas (then 29 electoral votes considered until then critical to any Democratic win of the Presidency -- medium blue) is next, and it would never vote for another Democratic nominee for President since.  

Dukakis lost New Jersey badly -- and New Hampshire was Dukakis' second-to-worst state. No Democratic nominee for President since has lost New Jersey, and only one nominee (Gore in 2000 -- maybe with a different VP pick he would have won New Hampshire and the Presidency) has since lost New Hampshire. The team of Clinton and Gore would win Arkansas and Tennessee in 1992 and 1996. He lost Nevada (which no Democrat would lose in a winning Presidential campaign) and Florida (which tends to be either close or a Republican blowout) badly, too.

I'm putting my crayons away on this particular map. Anything 'beyond' Texas (with a 12.60% gap) may as well be considered fitting a deep blue color. I have some household chores to complete.  
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2015, 08:50:00 pm »

Nixon, the incumbent VP, inherits the President from a popular President in 1960 -- NOT!




Eisenhower 1956, Nixon 1960  blue (Alaska* went for Nixon in 1960 -- light blue)
Eisenhower 1956, Kennedy 1960 white
Stevenson 1956, Kennedy 1960 red (Hawaii* went for Kennedy in 1960 -- pink)
Stevenson 1956, "uncommitted" 1960 green
No state went from Stevenson to Nixon in 1960.

I would guess that both Alaska* and Hawaii* would have gone for Ike had they voted in 1956.

Gore, the incumbent VP, inherits the President from a popular President in 2000 -- NOT!



Dole and Dubya -- blue
Clinton and Dubya -- green (Florida disputed for a month... thus the light shade)
Clinton and Gore -- red

No state went from Dole to Gore.

Gore lost fully eleven states that Clinton had won four years earlier... and any one of them could have ensured that the Great Disaster would have not been President.


California was won by Gore...by 11 points, and hasn't voted GOP since '88.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2015, 11:51:11 pm »
« Edited: January 20, 2015, 01:02:18 am by pbrower2a »

Nixon, the incumbent VP, inherits the President from a popular President in 1960 -- NOT!




Eisenhower 1956, Nixon 1960  blue (Alaska* went for Nixon in 1960 -- light blue)
Eisenhower 1956, Kennedy 1960 white
Stevenson 1956, Kennedy 1960 red (Hawaii* went for Kennedy in 1960 -- pink)
Stevenson 1956, "uncommitted" 1960 green
No state went from Stevenson to Nixon in 1960.

I would guess that both Alaska* and Hawaii* would have gone for Ike had they voted in 1956.

Gore, the incumbent VP, inherits the President from a popular President in 2000 -- NOT!



Dole and Dubya -- blue
Clinton and Dubya -- green (Florida disputed for a month... thus the light shade)
Clinton and Gore -- red

No state went from Dole to Gore.

Gore lost fully eleven states that Clinton had won four years earlier... and any one of them could have ensured that the Great Disaster would have not been President.


California was won by Gore...by 11 points, and hasn't voted GOP since '88.

Correction done.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2015, 12:03:45 pm »
« Edited: February 27, 2015, 12:06:47 pm by pbrower2a »

Herbert Hoover 1928 (promise of a New Era) vs. Dwight Eisenhower 1950's who promised much the same as Hoover in 1956... but delivered.

Al Smith got clobbered badly, and the slogan "Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion" that the Republican Party used against him showed what Smith won -- heavily-Catholic Massachusetts, some former Confederate States, and all states in which alcoholic beverages were legal (on the latter, none -- Prohibition was the law and a joke in 1928).  



Hoover 1928, Eisenhower twice -- blue
Smith 1928, Eisenhower twice -- white

Hoover 1928, Stevenson twice -- yellow
Hoover 1928, Eisenhower once -- light green
Smith 1928, Stevenson twice -- red

Ike must not have had a problem with the Catholic vote.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2015, 12:14:56 pm »
« Edited: February 27, 2015, 06:54:26 pm by pbrower2a »


Yeah, I agree that 1988 set the realignment we have now. Thanks for confirming with maps.

After 1980, the Democrats had no chance of winning with the Carter coalition. Realignments happen, if at all, under electoral blowouts.  The realignments may not be obvious under the overwhelming losses, but the pattern of Clinton wins look obvious enough, except that Clinton would never win South Dakota -- and would win New Hampshire and New Jersey twice.  
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: March 06, 2015, 08:42:09 pm »
« Edited: March 07, 2015, 06:55:29 pm by pbrower2a »

Kennedy 1960. Carter 1976. Two close elections sixteen years apart.



Kennedy and Carter -- red
not voting -- Carter -- gray (DC)
uncommitted and Carter -- orange (Alabama 5 for Kennedy, 6 for Alabama)
Kennedy and Ford -- green
Nixon and Carter -- yellow
not voting -- Carter -- gray (DC)

Alabama is split Kennedy/Byrd.

Possible interpretation: Kennedy largely put the New Deal Coalition back for the Democrats and Carter in 1976 was the Last Hurrah of the New Deal Coalition.

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« Reply #17 on: March 06, 2015, 08:49:24 pm »

Wisconsin is yellow
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2015, 06:55:54 pm »


Correction noted. Thank you.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: March 18, 2015, 06:21:50 am »
« Edited: January 22, 2019, 11:39:27 am by pbrower2a »

Now let's contrast the two elections (1948, 1968) involving racists seceding from the mainstream Democratic Party to form a Third Party.  




Thurmond 1948, Wallace 1968  -- dark green
Thurmond 1948, Nixon 1968 -- medium green
Truman 1948, Wallace 1968 -- light green

== NO STATE WENT FROM DEWEY TO WALLACE ==

Truman 1948, Humphrey 1968 -- red
did not vote 1948, Humphrey 1968 -- pink

Truman 1948, Nixon 1968 -- white
Dewey 1948, Humphrey 1968  -- yellow

Dewey 1948, Nixon 1968 -- dark blue
did not vote 1948, Nixon 1968 -- light blue
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: March 24, 2015, 08:55:30 am »
« Edited: March 25, 2015, 12:03:33 am by pbrower2a »

Now let's contrast the two elections (1948, 1968) involving racists seceding from the mainstream Democratic Party to form a Third Party.  




Thurmond 1948, Wallace 1968  -- dark green
Thurmond 1948, Nixon 1968 -- medium green
Truman 1948, Wallace 1968 -- light green

== NO STATE WENT FROM DEWEY TO WALLACE ==

Truman 1948, Humphrey 1968 -- red
did not vote 1948, Humphrey 1968 -- pink

Truman 1948, Nixon 1968  -- white
Dewey 1948, Humphrey 1968 -- yellow

Dewey 1948, Nixon 1968 -- dark blue
did not vote 1948, Nixon 1968 -- light blue

....I'm going to figure that Thomas E. Dewey was not a good campaigner. He must have assumed that Harry Truman was so awful that few could ever vote for such a hack.

Strom Thurmond took votes away from Truman -- but not Dewey. Thurmond had no political strength outside the core South.  He did not appear on the ballot, apparently, in many Northern states, but it would have done him no good. He got 0.17% of the vote in North Dakota, which is clearly not a Southern state and never was, and 0.03% of the vote in California. Off the core of the South he got:

  0.40% MD
  1.27% KY
  8.80% NC
  9.11% TX
10.35% VA
13.41% TN
15.54% FL
16.52% AR
20.31% GA

Of those states, Truman won all but Maryland. Henry Wallace did better in Maryland than did Dewey. Oddly, Truman lost Maryland by a margin less than the (Henry) Wallace vote of 1948. Wallace ran to the left (some say very far to the left) of Truman.

Thurmond was largely a protest vote. Most of the Thurmond vote would return to the Democratic fold in 1952 and 1956.

...

George Wallace had bigger ambitions than Thurmond; he actively campaigned outside the South. He got 12.07% of the vote in Alaska, 12.55% of the vote in Idaho, 11.45% in Indiana, 10.19% in Kansas, 10.04% of the vote in Michigan, 13.25% in New Jersey, and 11.81% of the vote in Ohio, suggesting that he was appealing to more than a protest vote on race.

Add the Wallace vote to the Humphrey vote, and Humphrey wins decisively. America really no longer has Richard Nixon to 'kick around'.  Using Indiana as an example of the argument that Humphrey would have won like Truman had he also won the Wallace vote, Nixon would have barely won Indiana, much as Dewey did in 1948. Republicans do not win the Presidency when they barely win Indiana, as in 1948.  Ruling out states in which Wallace won 10% or more of the vote, Humphrey would have won in addition to the 191 electoral votes that he in fact won:

California     40
Illinois          26
New Jersey  17
Wisconsin    12
Oregon          6    
--------------------

total shift    101

...enough for 282 electoral votes.

So why do I not mention some other states like Ohio? Because I would then need to discuss such states as Florida and Virginia.  

All right. The Democratic Party was in disarray in 1968. Robert F. Kennedy might have won the nomination and gotten a result closer to Truman 1948... or my scenario.  Humphrey pieced together most of a splintered coalition reeling from the failure of the Vietnam War. Nixon had no problem with Party unity.    

  
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #21 on: May 14, 2015, 09:52:16 am »

1996 to 2000. Here is how George W. Bush won.



Clinton 1996 Gore 2000 red
Clinton 1996 Bush 2000 yellow
Dole 1996 Bush 2000 blue

Dubya broadened the map. He turned over eleven Clinton wins from 1996, and he needed every one of the states.

Kentucky
Louisiana
West Virginia
Arizona
Arkansas
Tennessee
Missouri
Nevada
Ohio
New Hampshire
Florida

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« Reply #22 on: May 14, 2015, 12:29:20 pm »

If anyone has any doubt that the Presidential Election of 1976 is ancient history for all practical purposes:

Carter 1976, Obama 2012    



Carter 1976, Obama twice  red
Carter 1976, Obama once pink
Carter 1976, Obama never yellow
Ford 1976, Obama twice white
Ford 1976, Obama once light blue
Ford 1976, Obama never blue
Quite true; note how most of the map is white or yellow. Even of the red states, OH was extremely close in '76, NY was close in '76, and FL was close in all 3 years. The only states that were strongly Dem all 3 times were MA, RI and DC.
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« Reply #23 on: May 14, 2015, 12:32:00 pm »

The Eisenhower - Obama analogy holds up even if we extend our analysis to young voters and minority groups--provided we focus on 1956 rather than 1952. In 1956 Ike was popular among voters under 30 and Black voters, as was, of course, Obama. In 1952 however, at the height of the Red Scare, most of the pro-Eisenhower (or perhaps anti-Stevenson) vote was older and white, like McCain's in 2008.
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« Reply #24 on: June 09, 2015, 01:54:21 am »
« Edited: April 30, 2016, 02:59:29 pm by pbrower2a »

Decline of the New Deal Coalition, 1936-



This map shows the lopsided election of 1936. On Election Day, James Farley, the Democratic chairman, said, "As Maine goes, so goes Vermont"... Maine and Vermont being the only states that went for Alf Landon.

The true nature of a State in its Presidential politics is to show how the state goes to find how steadily it votes or when it votes for the losing side in a blowout. Except for the laughable blowouts of 1964, neither Maine nor Vermont would vote for the Democratic nominee for President until 1992 -- long after the New Deal Coalition had no relevance.

Shading the states that voted against FDR in 1936, 1940, and 1944 in blue-black, those that voted against FDR in 1940 and 1944 in 70% blue, and those voting against FDR in 1944 in 50% blue, we get this:




Now it gets trickier. Thurmond was a New Dealer who opposed Truman largely on race. I am giving Thurmond no credit for pulling any state permanently from the New Deal Coalition. Truman wins back Iowa -- and I will not change Iowa 'back' to red.  But I will recognize Truman's losses in several Northeastern states and Oregon in 1948. I put those states that Truman lost in 30% blue. No Democratic nominee for President would win back any ot those states until at least 1960.

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